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It is imperative to advance our understanding of heterogeneities in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 such as age-specific infectiousness and superspreading. To this end, it is important to exploit multiple data streams that are becoming abundantly available during the pandemic. In this paper, we formulate an individual-level spatiotemporal mechanistic framework to integrate individual surveillance data with geolocation data and aggregate mobility data, enabling a more granular understanding of the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2.We analyze reported cases, between March and early May 2020, in five (urban and rural) counties in the state of Georgia. First, our results show that the reproductive number reduced to below one in about 2 wk after the shelter-in-place order. Superspreading appears to be widespread across space and time, and it may have a particularly important role in driving the outbreak in rural areas and an increasing importance toward later stages of outbreaks in both urban and rural settings. Overall, about 2% of cases were directly responsible for 20% of all infections. We estimate that the infected nonelderly cases (<60 y) may be 2.78 [2.10, 4.22] times more infectious than the elderly, and the former tend to be the main driver of superspreading. Our results improve our understanding of the natural history and transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. More importantly, we reveal the roles of age-specific infectiousness and characterize systematic variations and associated risk factors of superspreading. These have important implications for the planning of relaxing social distancing and, more generally, designing optimal control measures.

Concerns exist about whether monovalent (RV1) and pentavalent (RV5) rotavirus vaccines provide adequate protection against diverse strains and whether vaccine introduction will lead to selective pressure. We aimed to investigate the distribution of rotavirus strains and strain-specific rotavirus vaccine effectiveness after vaccine introduction. We did a systematic review of published work to assess the strain-specific effectiveness of RV1 and RV5 rotavirus vaccines. We classified strains as homotypic, partly heterotypic, and fully heterotypic based on the amount of antigen-matching between strain and vaccine. When studies reported vaccine effectiveness against single antigens (G-type or P-type), we categorised them as either single-antigen vaccine type or single-antigen non-vaccine type. Our primary outcome was strain-specific vaccine effectiveness, comparing effectiveness of homotypic strains with fully or partly heterotypic strains. A secondary outcome was the prevalence of rotavirus strains after vaccine introduction. We estimated pooled odds ratios using random-effect regression models, stratified by country income level and vaccine type, and tested for differences in strain-specific vaccine effectiveness. We assessed strain distribution trends from surveillance reports. In high-income countries, RV1 pooled vaccine effectiveness was 94% (95% CI 80–98) against homotypic strains, 71% (39–86) against partly heterotypic strains, and 87% (76–93) against fully heterotypic strains. In middle-income settings, respective pooled data were 59% (36–73), 72% (58–81), and 47% (28–61). In high-income countries, RV5 vaccine effectiveness was 83% (78–87) against homotypic strains, 82% (70–89) against single-antigen vaccine type strains, 82% (70–89) against partly heterotypic strains, and 75% (47–88) against single-antigen non-vaccine type strains. In middle-income settings, RV5 vaccine effectiveness was 70% (58–78) against single-antigen vaccine type strains, 37% (10–56) against partly heterotypic strains, and 87% (38–97) against single-antigen non-vaccine type strains. No difference was noted in vaccine effectiveness for either RV1 or RV5 in any setting (all p>0·05). Prevalent strains in countries using RV1 were G2P[4] (2198 of 4428, 50%) and G1P[8] (953, 22%), and those in countries using RV5 were G1P[8] (1280 of 3875, 33%) and G2P[4] (1169, 30%). Sustained predominance of a single strain was not recorded. RV1 and RV5 exert similar effectiveness against homotypic and heterotypic rotavirus strains. Persistence of specific strains was not recorded, suggesting vaccine-induced selective pressure did not occur. Expansion of rotavirus surveillance efforts to low-income countries and ongoing surveillance are crucial to identify emergence of new strains and to assess strain-specific vaccine effectiveness in various settings. None.

Background To reduce the burden from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, federal and state local governments implemented restrictions such as limitations on gatherings, restaurant dining, and travel, and recommended non-pharmaceutical interventions including physical distancing, mask-wearing, surface disinfection, and increased hand hygiene. Resulting behavioral changes impacted other infectious diseases including enteropathogens such as norovirus and rotavirus, which had fairly regular seasonal patterns prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The study objective was to project future incidence of norovirus and rotavirus gastroenteritis as contacts resumed and other NPIs are relaxed. Methods We fitted compartmental mathematical models to pre-pandemic U.S. surveillance data (2012–2019) for norovirus and rotavirus using maximum likelihood estimation. Then, we projected incidence for 2022–2030 under scenarios where the number of contacts a person has per day varies from70%, 80%, 90%, and full resumption (100%) of pre-pandemic levels. Results We found that the population susceptibility to both viruses increased between March 2020 and November 2021. The 70–90% contact resumption scenarios led to lower incidence than observed pre-pandemic for both viruses. However, we found a greater than two-fold increase in community incidence relative to the pre-pandemic period under the 100% contact scenarios for both viruses. With rotavirus, for which population immunity is driven partially by vaccination, patterns settled into a new steady state quickly in 2022 under the 70–90% scenarios. For norovirus, for which immunity is relatively short-lasting and only acquired through infection, surged under the 100% contact scenario projection. Conclusions These results, which quantify the consequences of population susceptibility build-up, can help public health agencies prepare for potential resurgence of enteric viruses.

Background. Globally, gastroenteritis is recognized as an important contributor to mortality among children, but population-based data on gastroenteritis deaths among adults and the contributions of specific pathogens are limited. We aimed to describe trends in gastroenteritis deaths across all ages in the United States and specifically estimate the contributions of Clostridium difficile and norovirus. Methods. Gastroenteritis-associated deaths in the United States during 1999-2007 were identified from the National Center for Health Statistics multiple-cause-of-death mortality data. All deaths in which the underlying cause or any of the contributing causes listed gastroenteritis were included. Time-series regression models were used to identify cause-unspecified gastroenteritis deaths that were probably due to specific causes; seasonality of model residuals was analyzed to estimate norovirus-associated deaths. Results. Gastroenteritis mortality averaged 39/1 000 000 person-years (11 255 deaths per year) during the study period, increasing from 25/1 000 000 person-years in 1999-2000 to 57/1 000 000 person-years in 2006-2007 (P < .001). Adults aged ≥65 years accounted for 83% of gastroenteritis deaths (258/1 000 000 person-years). C. difficile mortality increased 5-fold from 10/1 000 000 person-years in 1999-2000 to 48/1 000 000 person-years in 2006-2007 (P (P < .001). Norovirus contributed to an estimated 797 deaths annually (3/1 000 000 person-years), with surges by up to 50% during epidemic seasons associated with emergent viral strains. Conclusions. Gastroenteritis-associated mortality has more than doubled during the past decade, primarily affecting the elderly. C. difficile is the main contributor to gastroenteritis-associated deaths, largely accounting for the increasing trend, and norovirus is probably the second leading infectious cause. These findings can help guide appropriate clinical management strategies and vaccine development.

Following the introduction of rotavirus vaccination in the United States, rotavirus and cause-unspecified gastroenteritis discharges significantly decreased in 2008 in the 0-4, 5-14, and 15-24-year age groups, with significant reductions observed in March, the historic peak rotavirus month, in all age groups. We estimate that 15% of the total 66 000 averted hospitalizations and 20% of the $204 million in averted direct medical costs attributable to the vaccination program were among unvaccinated 5-24 year-olds. This study demonstrates a previously unrecognized burden of severe rotavirus in the population > 5 years and the primacy of very young children in the transmission of rotavirus.

University administrators face decisions about how to safely return and maintain students, staff and faculty on campus throughout the 2020–21 school year. We developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) deterministic compartmental transmission model of SARS-CoV-2 among university students, staff, and faculty. Our goals were to inform planning at our own university, Emory University, a medium-sized university with around 15,000 students and 15,000 faculty and staff, and to provide a flexible modeling framework to inform the planning efforts at similar academic institutions. Control strategies of isolation and quarantine are initiated by screening (regardless of symptoms) or testing (of symptomatic individuals). We explored a range of screening and testing frequencies and performed a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. We found that among students, monthly and weekly screening can reduce cumulative incidence by 59% and 87%, respectively, while testing with a 2-, 4- and 7-day delay between onset of infectiousness and testing results in an 84%, 74% and 55% reduction in cumulative incidence. Smaller reductions were observed among staff and faculty. Community-introduction of SARS-CoV-2 onto campus may be controlled with testing, isolation, contract tracing and quarantine. Screening would need to be performed at least weekly to have substantial reductions beyond disease surveillance. This model can also inform resource requirements of diagnostic capacity and isolation/quarantine facilities associated with different strategies.

Background. Diarrhea remains an important cause of morbidity, but until the mid 1990s, hospital admissions for diarrhea in the US adult population were declining. We aimed to describe recent trends in gastroenteritis hospitalizations and to determine the contribution of norovirus. Methods. We analyzed all gastroenteritis-associated hospital discharges during 1996-2007 from a nationally representative data set of hospital inpatient stays. Annual rates of discharges by age were calculated. Time-series regression models were fitted using cause-specified discharges as explanatory variables; model residuals were analyzed to estimate norovirus- and rotavirus-associated discharges. We then calculated the annual hospital charges for norovirus-associated discharges. Results. Sixty-nine percent of all gastroenteritis discharges were cause-unspecified and rates increased by ≥50% in all adult and elderly age groups (≥18 years of age) from 1996 through 2007. We estimate an annual mean of 71,000 norovirus-associated hospitalizations, costing $493 million per year, with surges to nearly 110,000 hospitalizations per year in epidemic seasons. We also estimate 24,000 rotavirus hospitalizations annually among individuals aged ≥5 years. Conclusions. Gastroenteritis hospitalizations are increasing, and we estimate that norovirus is the cause of 10% of cause-unspecified and 7% of all-cause gastroenteritis discharges. Norovirus should be routinely considered as a cause of gastroenteritis hospitalization.

Norovirus is attributed to nearly 1 out of every 5 episodes of diarrheal disease globally and is estimated to cause approximately 200,000 deaths annually worldwide, with 70,000 or more among children in developing countries. Noroviruses remain a leading cause of sporadic disease and outbreaks of acute gastroenteritis even in industrialized settings, highlighting that improved hygiene and sanitation alone may not be fully effective in controlling norovirus. Strengths in global progress towards a Norovirus vaccine include a diverse though not deep pipeline which includes multiple approaches, including some with proven technology platforms (e.g., VLP-based HPV vaccines). However, several gaps in knowledge persist, including a fulsome mechanistic understanding of how the virus attaches to human host cells, internalizes, and induces disease.

Norovirus is increasingly recognized as a major cause of acute gastroenteritis among children <5 years of age. We searched for publications that reported detailed age distributions of pediatric norovirus cases, and assessed associations between age distribution and socio-demographic factors to identify the most critical age periods to prevent norovirus cases among young children. Approximately 70% of pediatric norovirus cases occurred between 6 and 23 months of age. A younger age distribution was found in lower income countries and inpatient settings. These findings suggest that a norovirus immunization schedule completed by 6 months could have the potential to prevent about 85% of pediatric cases, while a vaccine delivered at 12 months of age would only have the potential to prevent about 50% of pediatric cases. With a younger age distribution in lower income settings, early prevention would be even more critical.

Norovirus is a leading cause of acute gastroenteritis (AGE) globally. AGE resulting from norovirus causes significant morbidity and mortality in countries of all income levels, particularly among young children and older adults. Prevention of norovirus AGE represents a unique challenge as the virus is genetically diverse with multiple genogroups and genotypes cocirculating globally and causing disease in humans. Variants of the GII.4 genotype are typically the most common genotype, and other genotypes cause varying amounts of disease year-to-year, with GII.2, GII.3, and GII.6 most prevalent in recent years. Noroviruses are primarily transmitted via the fecal-oral route and only a very small number of virions are required for infection, which makes outbreaks of norovirus extremely difficult to control when they occur. Settings like long-term care facilities, daycares, and hospitals are at high risk of outbreaks and can have very high attack rates resulting in substantial costs and disease burden. Severe cases of norovirus AGE are most common in vulnerable patient populations, such as infants, the elderly, and immunocompromised individuals, with available treatments limited to rehydration therapies and supportive care. To date, there are no FDA-approved norovirus vaccines; however, several candidates are currently in development. Given the substantial human and economic burden associated with norovirus AGE, a vaccine to prevent morbidity and mortality and protect vulnerable populations could have a significant impact on global public health.