Explore the vast range of titles available.

In a rapidly changing world, ecology has the potential to move from empirical and conceptual stages to application and management issues. It is now possible to make large‐scale predictions up to continental or global scales, ranging from the future distribution of biological diversity to changes in ecosystem functioning and services. With these recent developments, ecology has a historical opportunity to become a major actor in the development of a sustainable human society. With this opportunity, however, also comes an important responsibility in developing appropriate predictive models, correctly interpreting their outcomes and communicating their limitations. There is also a danger that predictions grow faster than our understanding of ecological systems, resulting in a gap between the scientists generating the predictions and stakeholders using them (conservation biologists, environmental managers, journalists, policymakers). Here, we use the context provided by the current surge of ecological predictions on the future of biodiversity to clarify what prediction means, and to pinpoint the challenges that should be addressed in order to improve predictive ecological models and the way they are understood and used. Synthesis and applications. Ecologists face several challenges to ensure the healthy development of an operational predictive ecological science: (i) clarity on the distinction between explanatory and anticipatory predictions; (ii) developing new theories at the interface between explanatory and anticipatory predictions; (iii) open data to test and validate predictions; (iv) making predictions operational; and (v) developing a genuine ethics of prediction.

Author’s accepted manuscript (postprint)

The rate and extent of global biodiversity change is surpassing our ability to measure, monitor and forecast trends. We propose an interconnected worldwide system of observation networks — a global biodiversity observing system (GBiOS) — to coordinate monitoring worldwide and inform action to reach international biodiversity targets.

Hepatic metabolism of the two main isomers of CLA (9cis-11trans, 10trans-12cis C18:2) was compared to that of oleic acid (representative of the main plasma FA) in 16 rats by using the in vitro method of incubated liver slices. Liver tissue samples were incubated at 37 degrees C for 17 h under an atmosphere of 95% O2/5% CO2 in a medium supplemented with 0.75 mM of FA mixture (representative of circulating nonesterified FA) and with 55 microM [1-(14)C]9cis-11trans C18:2,11-(14)C]10trans-12cis C18:2, or 11-(14)C]oleate. The uptake of CLA by hepatocytes was similar for both isomers (9%) and was three times higher (P < 0.01) than for oleate (2.6%). The rate of CLA isomer oxidation was two times higher (49 and 40% of incorporated amounts of 9cis-11 trans and 10trans-12cis, respectively) than that of oleate (P < 0.01). Total oxidation of oleate and CLA isomers into [14CO2] was low (2 to 7% of total oxidized FA) compared to the partial oxidation (93 to 98%) leading to the production of [14C] acid-soluble products. CLA isomers escaping from catabolism were both highly desaturated (26.7 and 26.8%) into conjugated 18:3. Oleate and CLA isomers were mainly esterified into neutral lipids (70% of esterifled FA) and, to a lesser extent, into polar lipids (30%). They were slowly secreted as parts of VLDL particles (< 0.4% of FA incorporated into cells), the extent of secretion of oleate and of 10trans-12cis being 2.2-fold higher than that of 9cis-11trans (P < 0.02). In conclusion, this study clearly showed that both CLA isomers were highly catabolized by hepatocytes, reducing their availability for peripheral tissues. Moreover, more than 25% of CLA escaping from catabolism was converted into conjugated 18:3, the biological properties of which remain to be elucidated.