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Mass coral bleaching affected large parts of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in 1998 and 2002. In this study, we assessed if signatures of these major thermal stress events were recorded in the growth characteristics of massive Porites colonies. In 2005 a suite of short (<50 cm) cores were collected from apparently healthy, surviving Porites colonies, from reefs in the central GBR (18-19°S) that have documented observations of widespread bleaching. Sites included inshore (Nelly Bay, Pandora Reef), annually affected by freshwater flood events, midshelf (Rib Reef), only occasionally affected by freshwater floods and offshore (Myrmidon Reef) locations primarily exposed to open ocean conditions. Annual growth characteristics (extension, density and calcification) were measured in 144 cores from 79 coral colonies and analysed over the common 24-year period, 1980-2003. Visual examination of the annual density bands revealed growth hiatuses associated with the bleaching years in the form of abrupt decreases in annual linear extension rates, high density stress bands and partial mortality. The 1998 mass-bleaching event reduced Porites calcification by 13 and 18% on the two inshore locations for 4 years, followed by recovery to baseline calcification rates in 2002. Evidence of partial mortality was apparent in 10% of the offshore colonies in 2002; however no significant effects of the bleaching events were evident in the calcification rates at the mid shelf and offshore sites. These results highlight the spatial variation of mass bleaching events and that all reef locations within the GBR were not equally stressed by the 1998 and 2002 mass bleaching events, as some models tend to suggest, which enabled recovery of calcification on the GBR within 4 years. The dynamics in annual calcification rates and recovery displayed here should be used to improve model outputs that project how coral calcification will respond to ongoing warming of the tropical oceans.

Coral bleaching occurs when stressful conditions result in the expulsion of the algal partner from the coral. Before anthropogenic climate warming, such events were relatively rare, allowing for recovery of the reef between events. Hughes et al. looked at 100 reefs globally and found that the average interval between bleaching events is now less than half what it was before. Such narrow recovery windows do not allow for full recovery. Furthermore, warming events such as El Niño are warmer than previously, as are general ocean conditions. Such changes are likely to make it more and more difficult for reefs to recover between stressful events. Science , this issue p. 80 Coral reefs in the present day have less time than in earlier periods to recover from bleaching events. Tropical reef systems are transitioning to a new era in which the interval between recurrent bouts of coral bleaching is too short for a full recovery of mature assemblages. We analyzed bleaching records at 100 globally distributed reef locations from 1980 to 2016. The median return time between pairs of severe bleaching events has diminished steadily since 1980 and is now only 6 years. As global warming has progressed, tropical sea surface temperatures are warmer now during current La Niña conditions than they were during El Niño events three decades ago. Consequently, as we transition to the Anthropocene, coral bleaching is occurring more frequently in all El Niño–Southern Oscillation phases, increasing the likelihood of annual bleaching in the coming decades.

Reef-building corals are under increasing physiological stress from a changing climate and ocean absorption of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. We investigated 328 colonies of massive Porites corals from 69 reefs of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in Australia. Their skeletal records show that throughout the GBR, calcification has declined by 14.2% since 1990, predominantly because extension (linear growth) has declined by 13.3%. The data suggest that such a severe and sudden decline in calcification is unprecedented in at least the past 400 years. Calcification increases linearly with increasing large-scale sea surface temperature but responds nonlinearly to annual temperature anomalies. The causes of the decline remain unknown; however, this study suggests that increasing temperature stress and a declining saturation state of seawater aragonite may be diminishing the ability of GBR corals to deposit calcium carbonate.

During 2015–2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs. Aerial and underwater survey data combined with satellite-derived measurements of sea surface temperature over the past two decades show that multiple mass-bleaching events have expanded to encompass virtually all of the Great Barrier Reef. Barrier reef bleaching The Great Barrier Reef is the world's largest reef system, but is being increasingly affected by climate change. Terry Hughes and colleagues examine changes in the geographic footprint of mass bleaching events on the Great Barrier Reef over the last two decades, using aerial and underwater survey data combined with satellite-derived measurements of sea surface temperature. They show that the cumulative footprint of multiple bleaching events has expanded to encompass virtually all of the Great Barrier Reef, reducing the number and size of potential refuges. The 2016 bleaching event proved the most severe, affecting 91% of individual reefs. The authors call for immediate global action to reduce the magnitude of climate warming in order to secure a future for coral reefs.

Ocean acidification due to anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions has negative effects on many marine organisms, but the long-term impacts are less well known. A study into the effects of natural carbon dioxide seeps on coral reefs and seagrasses confirms model predictions that acidification may contribute to reduced diversity and resilience. Experiments have shown that ocean acidification due to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations has deleterious effects on the performance of many marine organisms 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 . However, few empirical or modelling studies have addressed the long-term consequences of ocean acidification for marine ecosystems 5 , 6 , 7 . Here we show that as pH declines from 8.1 to 7.8 (the change expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase from 390 to 750 ppm, consistent with some scenarios for the end of this century) some organisms benefit, but many more lose out. We investigated coral reefs, seagrasses and sediments that are acclimatized to low pH at three cool and shallow volcanic carbon dioxide seeps in Papua New Guinea. At reduced pH, we observed reductions in coral diversity, recruitment and abundances of structurally complex framework builders, and shifts in competitive interactions between taxa. However, coral cover remained constant between pH 8.1 and ∼7.8, because massive Porites corals established dominance over structural corals, despite low rates of calcification. Reef development ceased below pH 7.7. Our empirical data from this unique field setting confirm model predictions that ocean acidification, together with temperature stress, will probably lead to severely reduced diversity, structural complexity and resilience of Indo-Pacific coral reefs within this century.

Northeast tropical Queensland rainfall is concentrated in the summer half year and characterized by high interannual variability, partly related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. This results in highly variable river flows affecting nearshore coral reefs of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Freshwater flood events are recorded in long-lived, annually banded massive coral skeletons as luminescent lines. Quantitative measurements of luminescence intensity were made for 20 Porites coral cores from nearshore reef sites between 11°S and 23°S. Seventeen of the coral luminescence series were significantly correlated with an instrumental record of northeast Queensland summer rainfall and were used to develop seven significantly calibrated and verified rainfall reconstructions based on between 17 (starting 1891) and 1 (starting 1639) coral series. The longest reconstruction, based on more than one coral, provides insights into northeast Queensland rainfall variability from the late 17th century. Comparisons with various independent climate proxies are equivocal: the magnitude and significance of relationships with, for example, a proxy ENSO index vary through time. An extended drier period reconstructed from approximately the 1760s to the 1850s is associated with lower interannual rainfall variability. Since the late 19th century average rainfall and its variability have significantly increased, with wet and dry extremes becoming more frequent than in earlier centuries. This suggests that a warming global climate maybe associated with more variable tropical Queensland rainfall. Key Points Coral luminescence used to reconstruct tropical rainfall Drier and less variable rainfall late 18th to mid-19th centuries Increase in rainfall variability and extremes since late 19th century

The tropical ocean environment is changing at an unprecedented rate, with warming and severe tropical cyclones creating obvious impacts to coral reefs within the last few decades and projections of acidification raising concerns for the future of these iconic and economically important ecosystems. Documenting variability and detecting change in global and regional climate relies upon high-quality observational records of climate variables supplemented, prior to the mid-19th century, with reconstructions from various sources of proxy climate information. Here we review how annual density banding patterns that are recorded in the skeletons of massive reef-building corals have been used to document environmental change and impacts within coral reefs. Massive corals provide a historical perspective of continuous calcification processes that pre-date most ecological observations of coral reefs. High-density stress bands, abrupt declines in annual linear extension, and evidence of partial mortality within the skeletal growth record reveal signatures of catastrophic stress events that have recently been attributed to mass bleaching events caused by unprecedented thermal stress. Comparison of recent trends in annual calcification with century-scale baseline calcification rates reveals that the frequency of growth anomalies has increased since the late 1990s throughout most of the world's coral reef ecosystems. Continuous coral growth histories provide valuable retrospective information on the coral response to environmental change and the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. Co-ordinated efforts to synthesize and combine global calcification histories will greatly enhance our understanding of current calcification responses to a changing ocean.

Anthropogenic increases of atmospheric carbon dioxide lead to warmer sea surface temperatures and altered ocean chemistry. Experimental evidence suggests that coral calcification decreases as aragonite saturation drops but increases as temperatures rise toward thresholds optimal for coral growth. In situ studies have documented alarming recent declines in calcification rates on several tropical coral reef ecosystems. We show there is no widespread pattern of consistent decline in calcification rates of massive Porites during the 20th century on reefs spanning an 11° latitudinal range in the southeast Indian Ocean off Western Australia. Increasing calcification rates on the high-latitude reefs contrast with the downward trajectory reported for corals on Australia's Great Barrier Reef and provide additional evidence that recent changes in coral calcification are responses to temperature rather than ocean acidification.

Anthropogenic nutrient discharge to coastal marine environments is commonly associated with excessive algal growth and ecosystem degradation. However in the world’s largest coral reef ecosystem, the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), the response to enhanced terrestrial nutrient inputs since European settlement in the 1850’s remains unclear. Here we use a 333 year old composite record (1680–2012) of 15 N/ 14 N in coral skeleton-bound organic matter to understand how nitrogen cycling in the coastal GBR has responded to increased anthropogenic nutrient inputs. Our major robust finding is that the coral record shows a long-term decline in skeletal 15 N/ 14 N towards the present. We argue that this decline is evidence for increased coastal nitrogen fixation rather than a direct reflection of anthropogenic nitrogen inputs. Reducing phosphorus discharge and availability would short-circuit the nitrogen fixation feedback loop and help avoid future acute and chronic eutrophication in the coastal GBR. Coastal pollution degrades ecosystems, but long term impacts are unknown in Australia’s Great Barrier Reef. Using a 333 year record of coral skeleton nitrogen isotopes, Erler and colleagues show that increasing nutrient inputs since European settlement have led to unexpected feedback responses.

We present a high-resolution seawater radiocarbon (Δ14C) record from a Porites coral collected from Masthead Island in the southern Great Barrier Reef (GBR) covering the years 1945–2017. The Δ14C values from 1945–1953 (pre-bomb era) averaged –49‰. As a result of bomb-produced 14C in the atmosphere, Δ14C values started to rise rapidly from 1959, levelled off at ∼131‰ in the late 1970s and gradually decreased to ∼40.3‰ by 2017 due to the decrease in the air-sea 14C gradient and the overturning of the 14C ocean reservoir (i.e., surface ocean to subsurface ocean; atmosphere to surface ocean). The Masthead Island record is in agreement with previous 14C coral records from the southern GBR. A comparison between surface ocean and atmospheric Δ14C suggests that, since 2010, the main reservoir of bomb-derived 14C has shifted from the atmosphere to the surface ocean, potentially resulting in reversed 14C flux in regions where the CO2 gradient is favorable. The high-resolution Masthead coral Δ14C sheds light on long-term variability in air-sea exchange and GBR regional ocean dynamics associated with climate change and in conjunction with the previous records provides a robust seawater 14C reference series to date other carbonate samples.