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As natural gas demand surges in China, driven by the coal-to-gas switching policy, widespread attention is focused on its impacts on global gas supply-demand rebalance and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Here, for the first time, we estimate well-to-city-gate GHG emissions of gas supplies for China, based on analyses of field-specific characteristics of 104 fields in 15 countries. Results show GHG intensities of supplies from 104 fields vary from 6.2 to 43.3 g CO 2 eq MJ −1 . Due to the increase of GHG-intensive gas supplies from Russia, Central Asia, and domestic shale gas fields, the supply-energy-weighted average GHG intensity is projected to increase from 21.7 in 2016 to 23.3 CO 2 eq MJ −1 in 2030, and total well-to-city-gate emissions of gas supplies are estimated to grow by ~3 times. While securing gas supply is a top priority for the Chinese government, decreasing GHG intensity should be considered in meeting its commitment to emission reductions. The carbon footprints of natural gas supplies at the field level are unclear. Here the authors analysed the GHG intensities of gas supplies from 104 fields and show that their GHG intensities range from 6.2 to 43.3 g CO 2 eq MJ -1 .

China’s twelfth Five-Year Plan included pollution control measures with a goal of reducing national emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO x ) by 10% by 2015 compared with 2010. Multiple linear regression analysis was used on 11-year time series of all nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) pixels from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) over 18 NO 2 hotspots in China. The regression analysis accounted for variations in meteorology, pixel resolution, seasonal effects, weekday variability and year-to-year variability. The NO 2 trends suggested that there was an increase in NO 2 columns in most areas from 2005 to around 2011 which was followed by a strong decrease continuing through 2015. The satellite results were in good agreement with the annual official NO x emission inventories which were available up until 2014. This shows the value of evaluating trends in emission inventories using satellite retrievals. It further shows that recent control strategies were effective in reducing emissions and that recent economic transformations in China may be having an effect on NO 2 columns. Satellite information for 2015 suggests that emissions have continued to decrease since the latest inventories available and have surpassed the goals of the twelfth Five-Year Plan.

The transboundary health impacts of air pollution associated with the international trade of goods and services are greater than those associated with long-distance atmospheric pollutant transport. The international air pollution trade Air quality and mortality are affected by local air pollution, but not all local air pollution comes from local emissions. It is also fed by atmospheric transport of pollutants from distant sources, and some of the pollution in one region is due to the production of goods for consumption in another. This study investigates the effect of these two remote pollution sources on premature mortality linked to fine particulate matter pollution. Qiang Zhang et al . find that, in 2007, about 12 per cent of premature deaths related to fine particulate matter were attributed to air pollutants from distant sources and about 22 per cent were associated with goods and services produced in one region for consumption in another. The findings suggest that the health impacts of pollution associated with international trade are greater than those associated with long-distance atmospheric pollutant transport. Millions of people die every year from diseases caused by exposure to outdoor air pollution 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 . Some studies have estimated premature mortality related to local sources of air pollution 6 , 7 , but local air quality can also be affected by atmospheric transport of pollution from distant sources 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 , 17 , 18 . International trade is contributing to the globalization of emission and pollution as a result of the production of goods (and their associated emissions) in one region for consumption in another region 14 , 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 . The effects of international trade on air pollutant emissions 23 , air quality 14 and health 24 have been investigated regionally, but a combined, global assessment of the health impacts related to international trade and the transport of atmospheric air pollution is lacking. Here we combine four global models to estimate premature mortality caused by fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) pollution as a result of atmospheric transport and the production and consumption of goods and services in different world regions. We find that, of the 3.45 million premature deaths related to PM 2.5 pollution in 2007 worldwide, about 12 per cent (411,100 deaths) were related to air pollutants emitted in a region of the world other than that in which the death occurred, and about 22 per cent (762,400 deaths) were associated with goods and services produced in one region for consumption in another. For example, PM 2.5 pollution produced in China in 2007 is linked to more than 64,800 premature deaths in regions other than China, including more than 3,100 premature deaths in western Europe and the USA; on the other hand, consumption in western Europe and the USA is linked to more than 108,600 premature deaths in China. Our results reveal that the transboundary health impacts of PM 2.5 pollution associated with international trade are greater than those associated with long-distance atmospheric pollutant transport.

The MIX inventory is developed for the years 2008 and 2010 to support the Model Inter-Comparison Study for Asia (MICS-Asia) and the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF HTAP) by a mosaic of up-to-date regional emission inventories. Emissions are estimated for all major anthropogenic sources in 29 countries and regions in Asia. We conducted detailed comparisons of different regional emission inventories and incorporated the best available ones for each region into the mosaic inventory at a uniform spatial and temporal resolution. Emissions are aggregated to five anthropogenic sectors: power, industry, residential, transportation, and agriculture. We estimate the total Asian emissions of 10 species in 2010 as follows: 51.3 Tg SO2, 52.1 Tg NOx, 336.6 Tg CO, 67.0 Tg NMVOC (non-methane volatile organic compounds), 28.8 Tg NH3, 31.7 Tg PM10, 22.7 Tg PM2.5, 3.5 Tg BC, 8.3 Tg OC, and 17.3 Pg CO2. Emissions from China and India dominate the emissions of Asia for most of the species. We also estimated Asian emissions in 2006 using the same methodology of MIX. The relative change rates of Asian emissions for the period of 2006–2010 are estimated as follows: −8.1 % for SO2, +19.2 % for NOx, +3.9 % for CO, +15.5 % for NMVOC, +1.7 % for NH3, −3.4 % for PM10, −1.6 % for PM2.5, +5.5 % for BC, +1.8 % for OC, and +19.9 % for CO2. Model-ready speciated NMVOC emissions for SAPRC-99 and CB05 mechanisms were developed following a profile-assignment approach. Monthly gridded emissions at a spatial resolution of 0.25°  ×  0.25° are developed and can be accessed from http://www.meicmodel.org/dataset-mix.

For over ten years, China has been the largest vehicle market in the world. In order to address energy security and air quality concerns, China issued the Dual Credit policy to improve vehicle efficiency and accelerate New Energy Vehicle adoption. In this paper, a market-penetration model is combined with a vehicle fleet model to assess implications on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy demand. Here we use this integrated modeling framework to study several scenarios, including hypothetical policy tweaks, oil price, battery cost and charging infrastructure for the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet. The model shows that the total GHGs of the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet are expected to peak in 2032 under the Dual Credit policy. A significant reduction in GHG emissions is possible if more efficient internal combustion engines continue to be part of the technology mix in the short term with more New Energy Vehicle penetration in the long term. China issued the Dual Credit policy to improve vehicle efficiency and accelerate new energy vehicle adoption. Here the authors show that the total Greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) of the Chinese passenger vehicle fleet are expected to peak in 2032 and a significant reduction in GHG emissions is possible by optimizing the Dual Credit policy.

Solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity is considered to be an important source of electricity generation in the quest for net-zero carbon emissions. However, the growth of solar electricity is creating both increased material demands and increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from silicon and PV manufacturing (also referred to as embodied GHG emissions of solar electricity). Here we analyze the silicon and solar PV supply chain for the United States (U.S.) market and find that the embodied GHG emissions of solar PV panel materials (such as silicon), manufacture, logistics, and installation in the U.S. given the current supply chain are 36 g CO 2 e kWh −1 of solar electricity generated. Eighty-five percent of the embodied GHG emissions are from PV panel production processes in China and other Asia–Pacific countries. Moving the silicon and PV manufacturing to the U.S. would reduce the embodied GHG emissions of solar electricity by 16% from its current level, primarily because of the lower GHG emission intensity of the U.S. electrical grid and the lower GHG emissions for aluminum electrolysis in North America. Future scenario analysis shows that by 2030, with the U.S. PV domestic supply chain and its decarbonized grid electricity and aluminum production, as well as improving PV conversion efficiency, the embodied GHG emissions of solar electricity in the U.S. will be reduced to 21 g CO 2 e kWh −1 .

Observing the spatial heterogeneities of NO2 air pollution is an important first step in quantifying NOX emissions and exposures. This study investigates the capabilities of the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) in observing the spatial and temporal patterns of NO2 pollution in the continental United States. The unprecedented sensitivity of the sensor can differentiate the fine‐scale spatial heterogeneities in urban areas, such as emissions related to airport/shipping operations and high traffic, and the relatively small emission sources in rural areas, such as power plants and mining operations. We then examine NO2 columns by day‐of‐the‐week and find that Saturday and Sunday concentrations are 16% and 24% lower respectively, than during weekdays. We also analyze the correlation of daily maximum 2‐m temperatures and NO2 column amounts and find that NO2 is larger on the hottest days (>32°C) as compared to warm days (26°C–32°C), which is in contrast to a general decrease in NO2 with increasing temperature at moderate temperatures. Finally, we demonstrate that a linear regression fit of 2019 annual TROPOMI NO2 data to annual surface‐level concentrations yields relatively strong correlation (R2 = 0.66). These new developments make TROPOMI NO2 satellite data advantageous for policymakers and public health officials, who request information at high spatial resolution and short timescales, in order to assess, devise, and evaluate regulations. Plain Language Summary Nitrogen oxides are a group of air pollutants released after fossil fuel combustion. A constituent of nitrogen oxides, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), can be observed by satellite instruments due to its chemical properties. In this project, we average together images of NO2 pollution gathered by the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument satellite instrument over the United States in order to better determine the spatial distribution of NO2 air pollution. We find that this newest satellite instrument can observe air pollution with unprecedented clarity, similar to how HDTV is an advancement over regular TV. For example, we quantify pollution near individual airports, shipping areas, and major interstates; previous satellite instruments were unable to quantify air pollution with this type of precision. We also average the satellite data over different intervals to better determine cycles of air pollution. We find that NO2 air pollution is 16% lower on Saturdays and 24% lower on Sundays. Additionally, we find that NO2 pollution is larger on the hottest summer days as compared to typical summer days. These developments demonstrate how this new satellite instrument can advantageous for policymakers and health officials, who request information at high spatial resolution and short timescales, in order to assess, devise, and evaluate regulations Key Points The high instrument sensitivity of Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) can measure NO2 pollution with unprecedented clarity compared to predecessor instruments We can now quantify pollution hotspots within cities such as those related to airport/shipping operations and high traffic areas Annual column NO2 observed by TROPOMI has good correlation (R2 = 0.66) with EPA surface observations without any surface‐to‐column conversion

When released to the biosphere, mercury (Hg) is very mobile and can take millennia to be returned to a secure, long-term repository. Understanding where and when Hg was released as a result of human activities allows better quantification of present-day reemissions and future trajectories of environmental concentrations. In this work, we estimate the time-varying releases of Hg in seven world regions over the 500 year period, 1510–2010. By our estimation, this comprises 95% of all-time anthropogenic releases. Globally, 1.47 Tg of Hg were released in this period, 23% directly to the atmosphere and 77% to land and water bodies. Cumulative releases have been largest in Europe (427 Gg) and North America (413 Gg). In some world regions (Africa/Middle East and Oceania), almost all (>99%) of the Hg is relatively recent (emitted since 1850), whereas in South America it is mostly of older vintage (63% emitted before 1850). Asia was the greatest-emitting region in 2010, while releases in Europe and North America have declined since the 1970s, as recognition of the risks posed by Hg have led to its phase-out in commercial usage. The continued use of Hg in artisanal and small-scale gold mining means that the Africa/Middle East region is now a major contributor. We estimate that 72% of cumulative Hg emissions to air has been in the form of elemental mercury (Hg 0 ), which has a long lifetime in the atmosphere and can therefore be transported long distances. Our results show that 83% of the total Hg has been released to local water bodies, onto land, or quickly deposited from the air in divalent (Hg II ) form. Regionally, this value ranges from 77% in Africa/Middle East and Oceania to 89% in South America. Results from global biogeochemical modeling indicate improved agreement of the refined emission estimates in this study with archival records of Hg accumulation in estuarine and deep ocean sediment.

Car stock projection is essential to evaluating the energy and environmental impacts of private cars in China. Since the private car ownership rate in China has not reached its saturation level, limited and outdated data used in previous studies has resulted in high uncertainties regarding the functions of car ownership and significantly reduced the robustness of the projection of private car stocks. In this work, we estimate China’s current growth pattern of private car ownership by analyzing more than 6300 pairs of private car ownership and income data collected from various official statistics at the national, provincial, and city levels in the period of 1997–2017. The dataset covers a much wider per-capita disposable income range than national-level data alone and allows us to make satisfactory projections of private car stocks in China up to 2040. We project that the private car stock in China could reach 403 million in 2040, if the current growth pattern of car ownership continues. Significant discrepancies in private car ownership curves are observed for cities with and without car sales restrictions. Without car sales restrictions, we estimate that the private car stock would be even higher at 455 million by 2040, demonstrating the effectiveness of the current restriction policy in controlling car stocks in China. We further quantify the potential impacts of car sales restrictions on future car stock levels by implementing hypothetical national car sales caps. Results show that, although the private car stocks would still continue to grow before 2030, the stock levels would be stable at ~ 280 and ~ 350 million by 2040 for scenarios of 20 and 25 million sales caps, respectively. The impact of private car stock growth on energy consumption in China is also examined. Pump-to-wheels energy consumption of the private car fleet is projected to be 131, 147, 90, and 113 million tonnes of oil equivalent by 2040 for scenarios of the current growth pattern, no sales restriction, the 20 million sales cap, and the 25 million sales cap, respectively. Analysis reveals that private car sales restriction and vehicle population growth control could be an effective strategy for energy consumption reduction (thus greenhouse gas emission mitigation) in China, although the development of the automotive industry may be restrained.

In this work, we investigate the NOx emissions inventory in Seoul, South Korea, using a regional ozone monitoring instrument (OMI) NO2 product derived from the standard NASA product. We first develop a regional OMI NO2 product by recalculating the air mass factors using a high-resolution (4 km × 4 km) WRF-Chem model simulation, which better captures the NO2 profile shapes in urban regions. We then apply a model-derived spatial averaging kernel to further downscale the retrieval and account for the subpixel variability. These two modifications yield OMI NO2 values in the regional product that are 1.37 times larger in the Seoul metropolitan region and >2 times larger near substantial point sources. These two modifications also yield an OMI NO2 product that is in better agreement with the Pandora NO2 spectrometer measurements acquired during the South Korea–United States Air Quality (KORUS-AQ) field campaign. NOx emissions are then derived for the Seoul metropolitan area during the KORUS-AQ field campaign using a top-down approach with the standard and regional NASA OMI NO2 products. We first apply the top-down approach to a model simulation to ensure that the method is appropriate: the WRF-Chem simulation utilizing the bottom-up emissions inventory yields a NOx emissions rate of 227±94 kt yr−1, while the bottom-up inventory itself within a 40 km radius of Seoul yields a NOx emissions rate of 198 kt yr−1. Using the top-down approach on the regional OMI NO2 product, we derive the NOx emissions rate from Seoul to be 484±201 kt yr−1, and a 353±146 kt yr−1 NOx emissions rate using the standard NASA OMI NO2 product. This suggests an underestimate of 53 % and 36 % in the bottom-up inventory using the regional and standard NASA OMI NO2 products respectively. To supplement this finding, we compare the NO2 and NOy simulated by WRF-Chem to observations of the same quantity acquired by aircraft and find a model underestimate. When NOx emissions in the WRF-Chem model are increased by a factor of 2.13 in the Seoul metropolitan area, there is better agreement with KORUS-AQ aircraft observations and the recalculated OMI NO2 tropospheric columns. Finally, we show that by using a WRF-Chem simulation with an updated emissions inventory to recalculate the air mass factor (AMF), there are small differences (∼8 %) in OMI NO2 compared to using the original WRF-Chem simulation to derive the AMF. This suggests that changes in model resolution have a larger effect on the AMF calculation than modifications to the South Korean emissions inventory. Although the current work is focused on South Korea using OMI, the methodology developed in this work can be applied to other world regions using TROPOMI and future satellite datasets (e.g., GEMS and TEMPO) to produce high-quality region-specific top-down NOx emissions estimates.