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AbstractObjectiveTo assess the prospective associations of baseline and long term trajectories of physical activity on mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer.DesignPopulation based cohort study.SettingAdults from the general population in the UK.Participants14 599 men and women (aged 40 to 79) from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Norfolk cohort, assessed at baseline (1993 to 1997) up to 2004 for lifestyle and other risk factors; then followed to 2016 for mortality (median of 12.5 years of follow-up, after the last exposure assessment).Main exposurePhysical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) derived from questionnaires, calibrated against combined movement and heart rate monitoring.Main outcome measuresMortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer. Multivariable proportional hazards regression models were adjusted for age, sex, sociodemographics, and changes in medical history, overall diet quality, body mass index, blood pressure, triglycerides, and cholesterol levels.ResultsDuring 171 277 person years of follow-up, 3148 deaths occurred. Long term increases in PAEE were inversely associated with mortality, independent of baseline PAEE. For each 1 kJ/kg/day per year increase in PAEE (equivalent to a trajectory of being inactive at baseline and gradually, over five years, meeting the World Health Organization minimum physical activity guidelines of 150 minutes/week of moderate-intensity physical activity), hazard ratios were: 0.76 (95% confidence interval 0.71 to 0.82) for all cause mortality, 0.71 (0.62 to 0.82) for cardiovascular disease mortality, and 0.89 (0.79 to 0.99) for cancer mortality, adjusted for baseline PAEE, and established risk factors. Similar results were observed when analyses were stratified by medical history of cardiovascular disease and cancer. Joint analyses with baseline and trajectories of physical activity show that, compared with consistently inactive individuals, those with increasing physical activity trajectories over time experienced lower risks of mortality from all causes, with hazard ratios of 0.76 (0.65 to 0.88), 0.62 (0.53 to 0.72), and 0.58 (0.43 to 0.78) at low, medium, and high baseline physical activity, respectively. At the population level, meeting and maintaining at least the minimum physical activity recommendations would potentially prevent 46% of deaths associated with physical inactivity.ConclusionsMiddle aged and older adults, including those with cardiovascular disease and cancer, can gain substantial longevity benefits by becoming more physically active, irrespective of past physical activity levels and established risk factors. Considerable population health impacts can be attained with consistent engagement in physical activity during mid to late life.

Flavonoids are a group of phenolic secondary plant metabolites that are ubiquitous in plant-based diets. Data from anthropological, observational and intervention studies have shown that many flavonoids are bioactive. For this reason, there is an increasing interest in investigating the potential health effects of these compounds. The translation of these findings into the context of the health of the general public requires detailed information on habitual dietary intake. However, only limited data are currently available for European populations. The objective of this study is to determine the habitual intake and main sources of anthocyanidins, flavanols, flavanones, flavones, flavonols, proanthocyanidins, theaflavins and thearubigins in the European Union. We use food consumption data from the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) and the FLAVIOLA Food Composition Database to estimate intake of flavonoids. Mean (±SEM) intake of total flavonoids in Europe was 428±49 mg/d, of which 136±14 mg/d were monomeric compounds. Gallated flavan-3-ols (53±12 mg/d) were the main contributor. The lowest flavonoid intake was observed in Mediterranean countries (monomeric compounds: 95±11 mg/d). The distribution of intake was skewed in many countries, especially in Germany (monomeric flavonoids; mean intake: 181 mg/d; median intake: 3 mg/d). The habitual intake of flavonoids in Europe is below the amounts found to have a significant health effect.

We have previously shown that multiple genetic loci identified by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) increase the susceptibility to obesity in a cumulative manner. It is, however, not known whether and to what extent this genetic susceptibility may be attenuated by a physically active lifestyle. We aimed to assess the influence of a physically active lifestyle on the genetic predisposition to obesity in a large population-based study. We genotyped 12 SNPs in obesity-susceptibility loci in a population-based sample of 20,430 individuals (aged 39-79 y) from the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk cohort with an average follow-up period of 3.6 y. A genetic predisposition score was calculated for each individual by adding the body mass index (BMI)-increasing alleles across the 12 SNPs. Physical activity was assessed using a self-administered questionnaire. Linear and logistic regression models were used to examine main effects of the genetic predisposition score and its interaction with physical activity on BMI/obesity risk and BMI change over time, assuming an additive effect for each additional BMI-increasing allele carried. Each additional BMI-increasing allele was associated with 0.154 (standard error [SE] 0.012) kg/m(2) (p = 6.73 x 10(-37)) increase in BMI (equivalent to 445 g in body weight for a person 1.70 m tall). This association was significantly (p(interaction) = 0.005) more pronounced in inactive people (0.205 [SE 0.024] kg/m(2) [p = 3.62 x 10(-18); 592 g in weight]) than in active people (0.131 [SE 0.014] kg/m(2) [p = 7.97 x 10(-21); 379 g in weight]). Similarly, each additional BMI-increasing allele increased the risk of obesity 1.116-fold (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.093-1.139, p = 3.37 x 10(-26)) in the whole population, but significantly (p(interaction) = 0.015) more in inactive individuals (odds ratio [OR] = 1.158 [95% CI 1.118-1.199; p = 1.93 x 10(-16)]) than in active individuals (OR = 1.095 (95% CI 1.068-1.123; p = 1.15 x 10(-12)]). Consistent with the cross-sectional observations, physical activity modified the association between the genetic predisposition score and change in BMI during follow-up (p(interaction) = 0.028). Our study shows that living a physically active lifestyle is associated with a 40% reduction in the genetic predisposition to common obesity, as estimated by the number of risk alleles carried for any of the 12 recently GWAS-identified loci. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

There is overwhelming evidence that behavioural factors influence health, but their combined impact on the general population is less well documented. We aimed to quantify the potential combined impact of four health behaviours on mortality in men and women living in the general community. We examined the prospective relationship between lifestyle and mortality in a prospective population study of 20,244 men and women aged 45-79 y with no known cardiovascular disease or cancer at baseline survey in 1993-1997, living in the general community in the United Kingdom, and followed up to 2006. Participants scored one point for each health behaviour: current non-smoking, not physically inactive, moderate alcohol intake (1-14 units a week) and plasma vitamin C >50 mmol/l indicating fruit and vegetable intake of at least five servings a day, for a total score ranging from zero to four. After an average 11 y follow-up, the age-, sex-, body mass-, and social class-adjusted relative risks (95% confidence intervals) for all-cause mortality(1,987 deaths) for men and women who had three, two, one, and zero compared to four health behaviours were respectively, 1.39 (1.21-1.60), 1.95 (1.70--2.25), 2.52 (2.13-3.00), and 4.04 (2.95-5.54) p < 0.001 trend. The relationships were consistent in subgroups stratified by sex, age, body mass index, and social class, and after excluding deaths within 2 y. The trends were strongest for cardiovascular causes. The mortality risk for those with four compared to zero health behaviours was equivalent to being 14 y younger in chronological age. Four health behaviours combined predict a 4-fold difference in total mortality in men and women, with an estimated impact equivalent to 14 y in chronological age.

OBJECTIVE: The association between quantity of fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake and risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) is not clear, and the relationship with variety of intake is unknown. The current study examined the association of both quantity and variety of F&V intake and risk of T2D. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We examined the 11-year incidence of T2D in relation to quantity and variety of fruit, vegetables, and combined F&V intake in a case-cohort study of 3,704 participants (n = 653 diabetes cases) nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Norfolk study, who completed 7-day prospective food diaries. Variety of intake was derived from the total number of different items consumed in a 1-week period. Multivariable, Prentice-weighted Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. RESULTS: A greater quantity of combined F&V intake was associated with 21% lower hazard of T2D (HR 0.79 [95% CI 0.62–1.00]) comparing extreme tertiles, in adjusted analyses including variety. Separately, quantity of vegetable intake (0.76 [0.60–0.97]), but not fruit, was inversely associated with T2D in adjusted analysis. Greater variety in fruit (0.70 [0.53–0.91]), vegetable (0.77 [0.61–0.98]), and combined F&V (0.61 [0.48–0.78]) intake was associated with a lower hazard of T2D, independent of known confounders and quantity of intake comparing extreme tertiles. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that a diet characterized by a greater quantity of vegetables and a greater variety of both F&V intake is associated with a reduced risk of T2D.

Objective To study the utility of body fat percentage in predicting health outcomes when other obesity indices are considered. Methods We conducted a prospective cohort study to evaluate the independent utility of body fat percentage and other obesity indices in predicting mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Results We prospectively followed 15 062 European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk participants who attended a health examination during 1997–2000 for all-cause mortality and incidence of CVD up to end of December 2011 and end of March 2009, respectively. During the follow-up, 2420 died and 4665 had incident CVD. After exclusion of prior stroke, myocardial infarction and cancer and adjusting for potential confounders, body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), the HR of mortality for men were 0.86 (0.68 to 1.09), 0.81 (0.61 to 1.07) and 0.76 (0.55 to 1.05) and for women were 0.91 (0.70 to 1.17), 0.75 (0.55 to 1.02) and 0.87 (0.61 to 1.23) for second, third and fourth quartile compared with the first (bottom) quartile of body fat percentage. The respective HRs for incident CVD were 0.99 (0.83 to 1.19), 0.85 (0.69 to 1.04) and 0.81 (0.64 to 1.03) for men and 0.98 (0.82 to 1.17), 0.89 (0.73 to 1.10) and 1.02 (0.81 to 1.29) for women. In contrast, higher BMI and WHR were associated with an increased risk of both outcomes and WHR appeared to have the best predictive value among three indices. Conclusions Once BMI and WHR are taken into account, fat percentage does not add to prediction of mortality or CVD in middle-aged and older-aged adults.

IntroductionHigh dietary saturated fat intake is associated with higher blood concentrations of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), an established risk factor for coronary heart disease. However, there is increasing interest in whether various dietary oils or fats with different fatty acid profiles such as extra virgin coconut oil may have different metabolic effects but trials have reported inconsistent results. We aimed to compare changes in blood lipid profile, weight, fat distribution and metabolic markers after four weeks consumption of 50 g daily of one of three different dietary fats, extra virgin coconut oil, butter or extra virgin olive oil, in healthy men and women in the general population.DesignRandomised clinical trial conducted over June and July 2017.SettingGeneral community in Cambridgeshire, UK.ParticipantsVolunteer adults were recruited by the British Broadcasting Corporation through their websites. Eligibility criteria were men and women aged 50–75 years, with no known history of cancer, cardiovascular disease or diabetes, not on lipid lowering medication, no contraindications to a high-fat diet and willingness to be randomised to consume one of the three dietary fats for 4 weeks. Of 160 individuals initially expressing an interest and assessed for eligibility, 96 were randomised to one of three interventions; 2 individuals subsequently withdrew and 94 men and women attended a baseline assessment. Their mean age was 60 years, 67% were women and 98% were European Caucasian. Of these, 91 men and women attended a follow-up assessment 4 weeks later.InterventionParticipants were randomised to extra virgin coconut oil, extra virgin olive oil or unsalted butter and asked to consume 50 g daily of one of these fats for 4 weeks, which they could incorporate into their usual diet or consume as a supplement.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was change in serum LDL-C; secondary outcomes were change in total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TC and HDL-C), TC/HDL-C ratio and non-HDL-C; change in weight, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, per cent body fat, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose and C reactive protein.ResultsLDL-C concentrations were significantly increased on butter compared with coconut oil (+0.42, 95% CI 0.19 to 0.65 mmol/L, P<0.0001) and with olive oil (+0.38, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.60 mmol/L, P<0.0001), with no differences in change of LDL-C in coconut oil compared with olive oil (−0.04, 95% CI −0.27 to 0.19 mmol/L, P=0.74). Coconut oil significantly increased HDL-C compared with butter (+0.18, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.30 mmol/L) or olive oil (+0.16, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.28 mmol/L). Butter significantly increased TC/HDL-C ratio and non-HDL-C compared with coconut oil but coconut oil did not significantly differ from olive oil for TC/HDL-C and non-HDL-C. There were no significant differences in changes in weight, BMI, central adiposity, fasting blood glucose, systolic or diastolic blood pressure among any of the three intervention groups.Conclusions and relevanceTwo different dietary fats (butter and coconut oil) which are predominantly saturated fats, appear to have different effects on blood lipids compared with olive oil, a predominantly monounsaturated fat with coconut oil more comparable to olive oil with respect to LDL-C. The effects of different dietary fats on lipid profiles, metabolic markers and health outcomes may vary not just according to the general classification of their main component fatty acids as saturated or unsaturated but possibly according to different profiles in individual fatty acids, processing methods as well as the foods in which they are consumed or dietary patterns. These findings do not alter current dietary recommendations to reduce saturated fat intake in general but highlight the need for further elucidation of the more nuanced relationships between different dietary fats and health.Trial registration number NCT03105947; Results.

The lack of association found in several cohort studies between dietary saturated fat and coronary heart disease (CHD) risk has renewed debate over the link between dietary fats and CHD. We assessed the relationship between plasma phospholipid fatty acid (PFA) concentration and incident CHD using a nested case control design within a prospective study (EPIC-Norfolk) of 25,639 individuals aged 40-79 years examined in 1993-1997 and followed up to 2009. Plasma PFA concentrations were measured by gas chromatography in baseline samples retrieved from frozen storage. In 2,424 men and women with incident CHD compared with 4,930 controls alive and free of cardiovascular disease, mean follow-up 13 years, saturated PFA (14:0, 16:0,18:0) plasma concentrations were significantly associated with increased CHD risk (odds ratio [OR] 1.75, 95% CI 1.27-2.41, p<0.0001), in top compared to bottom quartiles (Q), and omega-6 polyunsaturated PFA concentrations were inversely related (OR 0.77, 0.60-0.99, p<0.05) after adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, blood pressure, smoking, alcohol intake, plasma vitamin C, social class, education, and other PFAs. Monounsaturated PFA, omega-3 PFA, and trans PFA concentrations were not significantly associated with CHD. Odd chain PFA (15:0, 17:0) concentrations were significantly inversely associated with CHD (OR 0.73, 0.59-0.91, p<0.001, Q4 versus Q1). Within families of saturated PFA or polyunsaturated PFA, significantly heterogeneous relationships with CHD were observed for individual fatty acids. In this study, plasma concentrations of even chain saturated PFA were found to be positively and omega-6 polyunsaturated PFA inversely related to subsequent coronary heart disease risk. These findings are consistent with accumulating evidence suggesting a protective role of omega-6 fats substituting for saturated fats for CHD prevention.

BackgroundDog ownership has been suggested to encourage physical activity in older adults and may enhance resilience to poor environmental conditions. This study investigates the role of dog ownership and walking as a means of supporting the maintenance of physical activity in older adults during periods of inclement weather.MethodsThe analysis used data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition Norfolk cohort. Daily physical activity (counts per minute) and minutes of sedentary behaviour were measured using accelerometers over 7 days. Three types of environmental conditions, day length, precipitation and maximum temperature, were date matched with daily physical activity. A multilevel first-order autoregressive time-series model quantified the moderating effect of self-reported dog ownership and walking on the association between physical activity and weather factors.ResultsAmong the 3123 participants, 18% reported having a dog in their households and two-thirds of dog owners walked their dogs at least once a day. Regular dog walkers were more active and less sedentary on days with the poorest conditions than non-dog owners were on the days with the best conditions. In days with the worst conditions, those who walked their dogs had 20% higher activity levels than non-dog owners and spent 30 min/day less sedentary.ConclusionThose who walked dogs were consistently more physically active than those who did not regardless of environmental conditions. These large differences suggest that dog walking, where appropriate, can be a component of interventions to support physical activity in older adults.

Background Measures of abdominal adiposity are strongly associated with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, data are limited and conflicting regarding the consequences of changes in body fat distribution. The main aims of this paper are to investigate the association between changes in waist circumference (WC) and all-cause and CVD mortality and to examine these changes in relation to concurrent changes in weight. Methods The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Norfolk) study recruited 25,639 participants between 1993 and 1997, aged 39–79, a number of whom also attended a second examination (1998–2000), and were followed up to 2016 for mortality. Participants were eligible for inclusion if they had WC, weight and height measurements at both time-points; those with a self-reported history of CVD or cancer, body mass index < 18.5 kg/m2 or missing data on covariates were excluded, leaving 12,337 participants for analyses. The median (IQR) follow-up time was 16.4 (15.7, 17.2) years. Hazard Ratios (HRs) for all-cause (2866 deaths) and CVD mortality (822 deaths), by categories of WC change, were determined using Cox proportional hazards analyses. Results After multivariable adjustment, the HRs (95% CIs) for all-cause mortality for men and women with a WC gain (WCG) >  5 cm were 1.51 (1.29–1.75) and 1.25 (1.06–1.46) respectively. For CVD mortality in men and women with a WCG >  5 cm, the HRs were 1.84 (1.39–2.43) and 1.15 (0.85–1.55) respectively. In analyses of concurrent changes in WC and weight, the greatest risk (HRs) (95% CIs) in men occurred with weight loss and WCG: 1.80 (1.13–2.86) for all-cause and 2.22 (1.03–4.82) for CVD mortality. In women, the greatest risk for both all-cause (HR 1.50 (1.16–1.95)) and CVD mortality (HR 1.81 (1.15–2.85)) was observed in those with weight loss and maintenance of WC (WCM). Conclusions Objectively measured WCG > 5 cm, was associated with subsequent higher total mortality risk and higher CVD mortality risk in men. Interventions focusing on preventing increase in central adiposity rather than lowering weight per se in later life may potentially have greater health benefits.