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The global terrestrial carbon sink offsets one-third of the world’s fossil fuel emissions, but the strength of this sink is highly sensitive to large-scale extreme events. In 2012, the contiguous United States experienced exceptionally warm temperatures and the most severe drought since the Dust Bowl era of the 1930s, resulting in substantial economic damage. It is crucial to understand the dynamics of such events because warmer temperatures and a higher prevalence of drought are projected in a changing climate. Here, we combine an extensive network of direct ecosystem flux measurements with satellite remote sensing and atmospheric inverse modeling to quantify the impact of the warmer spring and summer drought on biosphere-atmosphere carbon and water exchange in 2012.We consistently find that earlier vegetation activity increased spring carbon uptake and compensated for the reduced uptake during the summer drought, which mitigated the impact on net annual carbon uptake. The early phenological development in the Eastern Temperate Forests played a major role for the continental-scale carbon balance in 2012. The warm spring also depleted soil water resources earlier, and thus exacerbated water limitations during summer. Our results show that the detrimental effects of severe summer drought on ecosystem carbon storage can be mitigated by warming-induced increases in spring carbon uptake. However, the results also suggest that the positive carbon cycle effect of warm spring enhances water limitations and can increase summer heating through biosphere–atmosphere feedbacks.

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is the principal driver of anthropogenic climate change. Asia is an important region for the global carbon budget, with 4 of the world’s 10 largest national emitters of CO 2 . Using an ensemble of seven atmospheric inverse systems, we estimated land biosphere fluxes (natural, land-use change and fires) based on atmospheric observations of CO 2 concentration. The Asian land biosphere was a net sink of −0.46 (−0.70–0.24) PgC per year (median and range) for 1996–2012 and was mostly located in East Asia, while in South and Southeast Asia the land biosphere was close to carbon neutral. In East Asia, the annual CO 2 sink increased between 1996–2001 and 2008–2012 by 0.56 (0.30–0.81) PgC, accounting for ∼35% of the increase in the global land biosphere sink. Uncertainty in the fossil fuel emissions contributes significantly (32%) to the uncertainty in land biosphere sink change. Land biosphere uptake of carbon is important in mitigating the anthropogenic increase in atmospheric CO 2 and its climate forcing. Here, the authors show that land biosphere uptake of carbon in Asia has increased substantially since the mid 1990s, likely owing to reforestation and regional climate change.

Data assimilation systems are used increasingly to constrain the budgets of reactive and long-lived gases measured in the atmosphere. Each trace gas has its own lifetime, dominant sources and sinks, and observational network (from flask sampling and in situ measurements to space-based remote sensing) and therefore comes with its own optimal configuration of the data assimilation. The CarbonTracker Europe data assimilation system for CO2 estimates global carbon sources and sinks, and updates are released annually and used in carbon cycle studies. CarbonTracker Europe simulations are performed using the new modular implementation of the data assimilation system: the CarbonTracker Data Assimilation Shell (CTDAS). Here, we present and document this redesign of the data assimilation code that forms the heart of CarbonTracker, specifically meant to enable easy extension and modification of the data assimilation system. This paper also presents the setup of the latest version of CarbonTracker Europe (CTE2016), including the use of the gridded state vector, and shows the resulting carbon flux estimates. We present the distribution of the carbon sinks over the hemispheres and between the land biosphere and the oceans. We show that with equal fossil fuel emissions, 2015 has a higher atmospheric CO2 growth rate compared to 2014, due to reduced net land carbon uptake in later year. The European carbon sink is especially present in the forests, and the average net uptake over 2001–2015 was 0. 17 ± 0. 11 PgC yr−1 with reductions to zero during drought years. Finally, we also demonstrate the versatility of CTDAS by presenting an overview of the wide range of applications for which it has been used so far.

Despite the consensus on the overall downward trend in Amazon forest loss in the previous decade, estimates of yearly carbon emissions from deforestation still vary widely. Estimated carbon emissions are currently often based on data from local logging activity reports, changes in remotely sensed biomass, and remote detection of fire hotspots and burned area. Here, we use 16 years of satellite-derived carbon monoxide (CO) columns to constrain fire CO emissions from the Amazon Basin between 2003 and 2018. Through data assimilation, we produce 3 d average maps of fire CO emissions over the Amazon, which we verified to be consistent with a long-term monitoring programme of aircraft CO profiles over five sites in the Amazon. Our new product independently confirms a long-term decrease of 54 % in deforestation-related CO emissions over the study period. Interannual variability is large, with known anomalously dry years showing a more than 4-fold increase in basin-wide fire emissions relative to wet years. At the level of individual Brazilian states, we find that both soil moisture anomalies and human ignitions determine fire activity, suggesting that future carbon release from fires depends on drought intensity as much as on continued forest protection. Our study shows that the atmospheric composition perspective on deforestation is a valuable additional monitoring instrument that complements existing bottom-up and remote sensing methods for land-use change. Extension of such a perspective to an operational framework is timely considering the observed increased fire intensity in the Amazon Basin between 2019 and 2021.

We investigate oxygen (O2) transport through stomata, focusing on its interaction with water vapour (H2O) flux. The dominant H2O flux exerts a drag force on other gases, a well-studied effect in the ternary air–water vapor–carbon dioxide (CO2) system but unexplored for O2 transport. This study aims to: (1) apply the Stefan-Maxwell equations to a quaternary system of H2O, O2, CO2, and N2; (2) identify conditions where O2 transport from stomata to the atmosphere occurs against its mole fraction gradient (“uphill”); and (3) derive an expression linking the O2 mole fraction in sub-stomatal air spaces (xoi) to that in the atmosphere (xoa) based on atmospheric relative humidity. Our theoretical results, constrained by typical values from previous flux observations of this quaternary system, reveal distinct transport regimes defined by the mole flux ratio of H2O and O2 (Fw/Fo). Uphill O2 diffusion occurs in the common regime where Fw/Fo≫1, and internal O2 mole fraction increases towards its atmospheric value as relative humidity tends to 100 %. These theoretical results offer a framework for interpreting laboratory and field experiments on stomatal O2 exchange under stagnant atmospheric or low Reynolds number conditions and can support the development of more physically accurate models of leaf–atmosphere oxygen exchange.

The tropical carbon balance dominates year-to-year variations in the CO2 exchange with the atmosphere through photosynthesis, respiration and fires. Because of its high correlation with gross primary productivity (GPP), observations of sun-induced fluorescence (SIF) are of great interest. We developed a new remotely sensed SIF product with improved signal-to-noise in the tropics, and use it here to quantify the impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño Amazon drought. We find that SIF was strongly suppressed over areas with anomalously high temperatures and decreased levels of water in the soil. SIF went below its climatological range starting from the end of the 2015 dry season (October) and returned to normal levels by February 2016 when atmospheric conditions returned to normal, but well before the end of anomalously low precipitation that persisted through June 2016. Impacts were not uniform across the Amazon basin, with the eastern part experiencing much larger (10–15%) SIF reductions than the western part of the basin (2–5%). We estimate the integrated loss of GPP relative to eight previous years to be 0.34–0.48 PgC in the three-month period October–November–December 2015. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications’.

We analysed gross primary productivity (GPP), total ecosystem respiration (TER) and the resulting net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) by the terrestrial biosphere during the summer of 2018 through observed changes across the Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) network, through biosphere and inverse modelling, and through remote sensing. Highly correlated yet independently-derived reductions in productivity from sun-induced fluorescence, vegetative near-infrared reflectance, and GPP simulated by the Simple Biosphere model version 4 (SiB4) suggest a 130–340 TgC GPP reduction in July–August–September (JAS) of 2018. This occurs over an area of 1.6 × 10 6 km 2 with anomalously low precipitation in northwestern and central Europe. In this drought-affected area, reduced GPP, TER, NEE and soil moisture at ICOS ecosystem sites are reproduced satisfactorily by the SiB4 model. We found that, in contrast to the preceding 5 years, low soil moisture is the main stress factor across the affected area. SiB4’s NEE reduction by 57 TgC for JAS coincides with anomalously high atmospheric CO 2 observations in 2018, and this is closely matched by the NEE anomaly derived by CarbonTracker Europe (52 to 83 TgC). Increased NEE during the spring (May–June) of 2018 (SiB4 −52 TgC; CTE −46 to −55 TgC) largely offset this loss, as ecosystems took advantage of favourable growth conditions. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Impacts of the 2018 severe drought and heatwave in Europe: from site to continental scale’.

Siberia's vast wetlands, permafrost, and boreal forests are significant, but their sources of methane (CH4) are poorly quantified. Using vertical CH4 profiles and meteorological data from the ZOtino Tall Tower Observatory (ZOTTO; 60°48′ N, 89°21′ E) in Central Siberia, we analyse long-term trends in CH4 growth rates, seasonal patterns, and diurnal cycles from 2010 to 2021. Our results show a persistent long-term trend in CH4 mole fractions and an insignificant increasing seasonal cycle amplitude, (2.12 ppb yr−1, p=0.12) along with a pronounced late-summer CH4 peak. Diurnal analysis reveals a growing late summer (July–October) CH4 amplitude over the analysed decade (5.29 ppb yr−1, p=0.001), driven by rising nighttime fluxes correlated with late summer soil temperature (R2=0.65, p<0.01), soil moisture (R2=0.36, p=0.032) and with preceding spring snow depth (R2=0.54, p=0.03). Notably high nighttime CH4 fluxes occurred in 2012 and 2019 mainly due to wildfires. These findings suggest that increasing late-summer CH4 emissions, primarily from wetlands to the west and southwest of ZOTTO, dominantly contribute to the overall CH4 rise. Our study underscores the importance of continuous, high-frequency greenhouse gas observations for accurately quantifying regional CH4 trends.

The 2015/2016 El Niño event caused severe changes in precipitation across the tropics. This impacted surface hydrology, such as river run-off and soil moisture availability, thereby triggering reductions in gross primary production (GPP). Many biosphere models lack the detailed hydrological component required to accurately quantify anomalies in surface hydrology and GPP during droughts in tropical regions. Here, we take the novel approach of coupling the biosphere model SiBCASA with the advanced hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB to attempt such a quantification across the Amazon basin during the drought in 2015/2016. We calculate 30–40% reduced river discharge in the Amazon starting in October 2015, lagging behind the precipitation anomaly by approximately one month and in good agreement with river gauge observations. Soil moisture shows distinctly asymmetrical spatial anomalies with large reductions across the north-eastern part of the basin, which persisted into the following dry season. This added to drought stress in vegetation, already present owing to vapour pressure deficits at the leaf, resulting in a loss of GPP of 0.95 (0.69 to 1.20) PgC between October 2015 and March 2016 compared with the 2007–2014 average. Only 11% (10–12%) of the reduction in GPP was found in the (wetter) north-western part of the basin, whereas the north-eastern and southern regions were affected more strongly, with 56% (54–56%) and 33% (31–33%) of the total, respectively. Uncertainty on this anomaly mostly reflects the unknown rooting depths of vegetation. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications’.

Regional land carbon budgets provide insights into the spatial distribution of the land uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide and can be used to evaluate carbon cycle models and to define baselines for land-based additional mitigation efforts. The scientific community has been involved in providing observation-based estimates of regional carbon budgets either by downscaling atmospheric CO2 observations into surface fluxes with atmospheric inversions, by using inventories of carbon stock changes in terrestrial ecosystems, by upscaling local field observations such as flux towers with gridded climate and remote sensing fields, or by integrating data-driven or process-oriented terrestrial carbon cycle models. The first coordinated attempt to collect regional carbon budgets for nine regions covering the entire globe in the RECCAP-1 project has delivered estimates for the decade 2000–2009, but these budgets were not comparable between regions due to different definitions and component fluxes being reported or omitted. The recent recognition of lateral fluxes of carbon by human activities and rivers that connect CO2 uptake in one area with its release in another also requires better definitions and protocols to reach harmonized regional budgets that can be summed up to a globe scale and compared with the atmospheric CO2 growth rate and inversion results. In this study, using the international initiative RECCAP-2 coordinated by the Global Carbon Project, which aims to be an update to regional carbon budgets over the last 2 decades based on observations for 10 regions covering the globe with a better harmonization than the precursor project, we provide recommendations for using atmospheric inversion results to match bottom-up carbon accounting and models, and we define the different component fluxes of the net land atmosphere carbon exchange that should be reported by each research group in charge of each region. Special attention is given to lateral fluxes, inland water fluxes, and land use fluxes.