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result(s) for
"Lunder, Chris"
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Historical greenhouse gas concentrations for climate modelling (CMIP6)
by
Meinshausen, Nicolai
,
Krummel, Paul B
,
Etheridge, David M
in
Aerosol effects
,
Atmospheric models
,
Boundary conditions
2017
Atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are at unprecedented, record-high levels compared to the last 800 000 years. Those elevated GHG concentrations warm the planet and – partially offset by net cooling effects by aerosols – are largely responsible for the observed warming over the past 150 years. An accurate representation of GHG concentrations is hence important to understand and model recent climate change. So far, community efforts to create composite datasets of GHG concentrations with seasonal and latitudinal information have focused on marine boundary layer conditions and recent trends since the 1980s. Here, we provide consolidated datasets of historical atmospheric concentrations (mole fractions) of 43 GHGs to be used in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project – Phase 6 (CMIP6) experiments. The presented datasets are based on AGAGE and NOAA networks, firn and ice core data, and archived air data, and a large set of published studies. In contrast to previous intercomparisons, the new datasets are latitudinally resolved and include seasonality. We focus on the period 1850–2014 for historical CMIP6 runs, but data are also provided for the last 2000 years. We provide consolidated datasets in various spatiotemporal resolutions for carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), as well as 40 other GHGs, namely 17 ozone-depleting substances, 11 hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), 9 perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) and sulfuryl fluoride (SO2F2). In addition, we provide three equivalence species that aggregate concentrations of GHGs other than CO2, CH4 and N2O, weighted by their radiative forcing efficiencies. For the year 1850, which is used for pre-industrial control runs, we estimate annual global-mean surface concentrations of CO2 at 284.3 ppm, CH4 at 808.2 ppb and N2O at 273.0 ppb. The data are available at https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/input4mips/ and http://www.climatecollege.unimelb.edu.au/cmip6 . While the minimum CMIP6 recommendation is to use the global- and annual-mean time series, modelling groups can also choose our monthly and latitudinally resolved concentrations, which imply a stronger radiative forcing in the Northern Hemisphere winter (due to the latitudinal gradient and seasonality).
Journal Article
Atmospheric new particle formation characteristics in the Arctic as measured at Mount Zeppelin, Svalbard, from 2016 to 2018
2020
We conducted continuous measurements of nanoparticles down to 3 nm size in the Arctic at Mount Zeppelin, Ny Ålesund, Svalbard, from October 2016 to December 2018, providing a size distribution of nanoparticles (3–60 nm). A significant number of nanoparticles as small as 3 nm were often observed during new particle formation (NPF), particularly in summer, suggesting that these were likely produced near the site rather than being transported from other regions after growth. The average NPF frequency per year was 23 %, having the highest percentage in August (63 %). The average formation rate (J) and growth rate (GR) for 3–7 nm particles were 0.04 cm−3 s−1 and 2.07 nm h−1, respectively. Although NPF frequency in the Arctic was comparable to that in continental areas, the J and GR were much lower. The number of nanoparticles increased more frequently when air mass originated over the south and southwest ocean regions; this pattern overlapped with regions having strong chlorophyll a concentration and dimethyl sulfide (DMS) production capacity (southwest ocean) and was also associated with increased NH3 and H2SO4 concentration, suggesting that marine biogenic sources were responsible for gaseous precursors to NPF. Our results show that previously developed NPF occurrence criteria (low loss rate and high cluster growth rate favor NPF) are also applicable to NPF in the Arctic.
Journal Article
Consumption of CH3Cl, CH3Br, and CH3I and emission of CHCl3, CHBr3, and CH2Br2 from the forefield of a retreating Arctic glacier
by
Lamarche-Gagnon, Guillaume
,
Young, Dickon
,
Wadham, Jemma L.
in
Arctic glaciers
,
Atmospheric processes
,
Chloroform
2020
The Arctic is one of the most rapidly warming regions of the Earth, with predicted temperature increases of 5–7 ∘C and the accompanying extensive retreat of Arctic glacial systems by 2100. Retreating glaciers will reveal new land surfaces for microbial colonisation, ultimately succeeding to tundra over decades to centuries. An unexplored dimension to these changes is the impact upon the emission and consumption of halogenated organic compounds (halocarbons). Halocarbons are involved in several important atmospheric processes, including ozone destruction, and despite considerable research, uncertainties remain in the natural cycles of some of these compounds. Using flux chambers, we measured halocarbon fluxes across the glacier forefield (the area between the present-day position of a glacier's ice-front and that at the last glacial maximum) of a high-Arctic glacier in Svalbard, spanning recently exposed sediments (<10 years) to approximately 1950-year-old tundra. Forefield land surfaces were found to consume methyl chloride (CH3Cl) and methyl bromide (CH3Br), with both consumption and emission of methyl iodide (CH3I) observed. Bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2) have rarely been measured from terrestrial sources but were here found to be emitted across the forefield. Novel measurements conducted on terrestrial cyanobacterial mats covering relatively young surfaces showed similar measured fluxes to the oldest, vegetated tundra sites for CH3Cl, CH3Br, and CH3I (which were consumed) and for CHCl3 and CHBr3 (which were emitted). Consumption rates of CH3Cl and CH3Br and emission rates of CHCl3 from tundra and cyanobacterial mat sites were within the ranges reported from older and more established Arctic tundra elsewhere. Rough calculations showed total emissions and consumptions of these gases across the Arctic were small relative to other sources and sinks due to the small surface area represented by glacier forefields. We have demonstrated that glacier forefields can consume and emit halocarbons despite their young age and low soil development, particularly when cyanobacterial mats are present.
Journal Article
Estimation of the atmospheric hydroxyl radical oxidative capacity using multiple hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)
by
Vollmer, Martin K.
,
Crotwell, Molly
,
Prinn, Ronald G.
in
Algorithms
,
Archives & records
,
Boxes
2024
The hydroxyl radical (OH) largely determines the atmosphere's oxidative capacity and, thus, the lifetimes of numerous trace gases, including methane (CH4). Hitherto, observation-based approaches for estimating the atmospheric oxidative capacity have primarily relied on using methyl chloroform (MCF), but as the atmospheric abundance of MCF has declined, the uncertainties associated with this method have increased. In this study, we examine the use of five hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) (HFC-134a, HFC-152a, HFC-365mfc, HFC-245fa, and HFC-32) in multi-species inversions, which assimilate three HFCs simultaneously, as an alternative method to estimate atmospheric OH. We find robust estimates of OH regardless of which combination of the three HFCs are used in the inversions. Our results show that OH has remained fairly stable during our study period from 2004 to 2021, with variations of
Journal Article
Growth in Production and Environmental Deposition of Trifluoroacetic Acid Due To Long‐Lived CFC Replacements and Anesthetics
2026
Trifluoroacetic acid (TFA) is a persistent pollutant with potential long‐term effects on the environment and on health. Recent studies using ice core records report large increases (up to tenfold) in Arctic TFA deposition since the 1970s, and trends suggest long‐lived chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) replacements may be a major source. Here, we use a chemical transport model to examine the global TFA budget arising from CFC replacements–hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)–and inhalation anesthetics. Global TFA deposition from these sources increased ∼3.5‐fold from 6.8 (5.9–7.6) Gg/yr in 2000 to 21.8 (18.6–25.0) Gg/yr in 2022, with cumulative deposition reaching 335.5 Gg. We find HCFC‐123, HCFC‐124, and HFC‐134a account for most modeled TFA production and that long‐lived CFC replacements account for virtually all of the observed Arctic deposition trend. At lower latitudes, our analysis supports the recent emergence of hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs) as a TFA source. We conclude that increased TFA monitoring is required.
Journal Article
History of chemically and radiatively important atmospheric gases from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE)
by
Gasore, Jimmy
,
Loh, Zöe M.
,
Rigby, Matt
in
Anthropogenic factors
,
Archives & records
,
Atmospheric gases
2018
We present the organization, instrumentation, datasets, data interpretation, modeling, and accomplishments of the multinational global atmospheric measurement program AGAGE (Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment). AGAGE is distinguished by its capability to measure globally, at high frequency, and at multiple sites all the important species in the Montreal Protocol and all the important non-carbon-dioxide (non-CO2) gases assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (CO2 is also measured at several sites). The scientific objectives of AGAGE are important in furthering our understanding of global chemical and climatic phenomena. They are the following: (1) to accurately measure the temporal and spatial distributions of anthropogenic gases that contribute the majority of reactive halogen to the stratosphere and/or are strong infrared absorbers (chlorocarbons, chlorofluorocarbons – CFCs, bromocarbons, hydrochlorofluorocarbons – HCFCs, hydrofluorocarbons – HFCs and polyfluorinated compounds (perfluorocarbons – PFCs), nitrogen trifluoride – NF3, sulfuryl fluoride – SO2F2, and sulfur hexafluoride – SF6) and use these measurements to determine the global rates of their emission and/or destruction (i.e., lifetimes); (2) to accurately measure the global distributions and temporal behaviors and determine the sources and sinks of non-CO2 biogenic–anthropogenic gases important to climate change and/or ozone depletion (methane – CH4, nitrous oxide – N2O, carbon monoxide – CO, molecular hydrogen – H2, methyl chloride – CH3Cl, and methyl bromide – CH3Br); (3) to identify new long-lived greenhouse and ozone-depleting gases (e.g., SO2F2, NF3, heavy PFCs (C4F10, C5F12, C6F14, C7F16, and C8F18) and hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs; e.g., CH2 = CFCF3) have been identified in AGAGE), initiate the real-time monitoring of these new gases, and reconstruct their past histories from AGAGE, air archive, and firn air measurements; (4) to determine the average concentrations and trends of tropospheric hydroxyl radicals (OH) from the rates of destruction of atmospheric trichloroethane (CH3CCl3), HFCs, and HCFCs and estimates of their emissions; (5) to determine from atmospheric observations and estimates of their destruction rates the magnitudes and distributions by region of surface sources and sinks of all measured gases; (6) to provide accurate data on the global accumulation of many of these trace gases that are used to test the synoptic-, regional-, and global-scale circulations predicted by three-dimensional models; and (7) to provide global and regional measurements of methane, carbon monoxide, and molecular hydrogen and estimates of hydroxyl levels to test primary atmospheric oxidation pathways at midlatitudes and the tropics. Network Information and Data Repository: http://agage.mit.edu/data or http://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/ndps/alegage.html (https://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/atg.db1001).
Journal Article
Global emissions and abundances of chemically and radiatively important trace gases from the AGAGE network
2025
Measurements from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) combined with a global 12-box model of the atmosphere have long been used to estimate global emissions and surface mean mole fraction trends of atmospheric trace gases. Here, we present annually updated estimates of these global emissions and mole fraction trends for 42 compounds through 2023 measured by the AGAGE network, including chlorofluorocarbons, hydrochlorofluorocarbons, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons, sulfur hexafluoride, nitrogen trifluoride, methane, nitrous oxide, and selected other compounds. The data sets are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15372480 (Western et al., 2025). We describe the methodology to derive global mole fraction and emissions trends, which includes the calculation of semihemispheric monthly mean mole fractions, the mechanics of the 12-box model and the inverse method that is used to estimate emissions from the observations and model. Finally, we present examples of the emissions and mole fraction data sets for the 42 compounds.
Journal Article
Unexpected nascent atmospheric emissions of three ozone-depleting hydrochlorofluorocarbons
by
Lunder, Chris R.
,
Hermansen, Ove
,
Wang, Ray H. J.
in
Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences
,
Physical Sciences
2021
Global and regional atmospheric measurements and modeling can play key roles in discovering and quantifying unexpected nascent emissions of environmentally important substances. We focus here on three hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) that are restricted by the Montreal Protocol because of their roles in stratospheric ozone depletion. Based on measurements of archived air samples and on in situ measurements at stations of the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) network, we report global abundances, trends, and regional enhancements for HCFC-132b (CH₂ClCClF₂), which is newly discovered in the atmosphere, and updated results for HCFC-133a (CH₂ClCF₃) and HCFC-31 (CH₂ClF). No purposeful end-use is known for any of these compounds. We find that HCFC-132b appeared in the atmosphere 20 y ago and that its global emissions increased to 1.1 Gg·y−1 by 2019. Regional top-down emission estimates for East Asia, based on high-frequency measurements for 2016–2019, account for ∼95% of the global HCFC-132b emissions and for ∼80% of the global HCFC-133a emissions of 2.3 Gg·y−1 during this period. Global emissions of HCFC-31 for the same period are 0.71 Gg·y−1. Small European emissions of HCFC-132b and HCFC-133a, found in southeastern France, ceased in early 2017 when a fluorocarbon production facility in that area closed. Although unreported emissive end-uses cannot be ruled out, all three compounds are most likely emitted as intermediate by-products in chemical production pathways. Identification of harmful emissions to the atmosphere at an early stage can guide the effective development of global and regional environmental policy.
Journal Article
Observations of 1,2-dichloroethane from the AGAGE and NOAA networks and derived global and regional emissions
by
Wagenhäuser, Thomas
,
Wenger, Angelina
,
Lunder, Chris R.
in
Aircraft
,
Atmospheric gases
,
Chlorine
2026
For the first time, we present long-term, ongoing atmospheric measurements of 1,2-dichloroethane (DCE, CH2ClCH2Cl) from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) global monitoring networks. DCE is an industrially produced, very short-lived chlorinated substance (Cl-VSLS) that has the potential to contribute chlorine to the stratosphere and cause ozone depletion. Compared to other Cl-VSLS, DCE is produced in higher volumes for its primary use as a feedstock in polyvinyl chloride (PVC) manufacture. This production has sustained annual mean mole fractions at the Earth's surface of between 5 and 10 ppt during 2017–2023, making it the third most abundant Cl-VSLS after dichloromethane and chloroform. In this study we estimate mean global emissions for 2017–2023 of 453 ± 185 Gg yr−1 using the AGAGE observations, and 525 ± 209 Gg yr−1 using the NOAA observations. We also use AGAGE measurements to estimate regional emissions for northwest Europe (2.06 [1.31, 2.65] Gg yr−1) and California (0.23 [0, 0.37] Gg yr−1), two domains with sufficient observational coverage to enable this approach. Our global emissions estimates are consistent (within uncertainties) with the only previously published estimate by Hossaini et al. (2024), whereas our regional emissions estimates are at least an order of magnitude smaller than those in that study. This suggests global total emissions may be well constrained, but their spatial distribution remains uncertain.
Journal Article
Atmospheric histories and emissions of chlorofluorocarbons CFC-13 (CClF3), ΣCFC-114 (C2Cl2F4), and CFC-115 (C2ClF5)
2018
Based on observations of the chlorofluorocarbons CFC-13 (chlorotrifluoromethane), ΣCFC-114 (combined measurement of both isomers of dichlorotetrafluoroethane), and CFC-115 (chloropentafluoroethane) in atmospheric and firn samples, we reconstruct records of their tropospheric histories spanning nearly 8 decades. These compounds were measured in polar firn air samples, in ambient air archived in canisters, and in situ at the AGAGE (Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment) network and affiliated sites. Global emissions to the atmosphere are derived from these observations using an inversion based on a 12-box atmospheric transport model. For CFC-13, we provide the first comprehensive global analysis. This compound increased monotonically from its first appearance in the atmosphere in the late 1950s to a mean global abundance of 3.18 ppt (dry-air mole fraction in parts per trillion, pmol mol−1) in 2016. Its growth rate has decreased since the mid-1980s but has remained at a surprisingly high mean level of 0.02 ppt yr−1 since 2000, resulting in a continuing growth of CFC-13 in the atmosphere. ΣCFC-114 increased from its appearance in the 1950s to a maximum of 16.6 ppt in the early 2000s and has since slightly declined to 16.3 ppt in 2016. CFC-115 increased monotonically from its first appearance in the 1960s and reached a global mean mole fraction of 8.49 ppt in 2016. Growth rates of all three compounds over the past years are significantly larger than would be expected from zero emissions. Under the assumption of unchanging lifetimes and atmospheric transport patterns, we derive global emissions from our measurements, which have remained unexpectedly high in recent years: mean yearly emissions for the last decade (2007–2016) of CFC-13 are at 0.48 ± 0.15 kt yr−1 (> 15 % of past peak emissions), of ΣCFC-114 at 1.90 ± 0.84 kt yr−1 (∼ 10 % of peak emissions), and of CFC-115 at 0.80 ± 0.50 kt yr−1 (> 5 % of peak emissions). Mean yearly emissions of CFC-115 for 2015–2016 are 1.14 ± 0.50 kt yr−1 and have doubled compared to the 2007–2010 minimum. We find CFC-13 emissions from aluminum smelters but if extrapolated to global emissions, they cannot account for the lingering global emissions determined from the atmospheric observations. We find impurities of CFC-115 in the refrigerant HFC-125 (CHF2CF3) but if extrapolated to global emissions, they can neither account for the lingering global CFC-115 emissions determined from the atmospheric observations nor for their recent increases. We also conduct regional inversions for the years 2012–2016 for the northeastern Asian area using observations from the Korean AGAGE site at Gosan and find significant emissions for ΣCFC-114 and CFC-115, suggesting that a large fraction of their global emissions currently occur in northeastern Asia and more specifically on the Chinese mainland.
Journal Article