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"MacIntyre, Andrew J."
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Integrating Regions
The proliferation of regional institutions and initiatives in Asia over the past decade is unmatched in any other region of the world. The authors in this collection explore the distinctive features of these institutions by comparing them for the first time to the experience of other regions; from the elaborate institution-building of Europe to the more modest regional projects of the Americas. It is an opportune moment for this reassessment, as the European regional model faces a sovereign debt crisis while Asian economies see more secure sources of growth from their immediate neighbors. Asia's regional institutions display a distinctive combination of decision rules, commitment devices, and membership practices, shaped by underlying features of the region, the dynamics of regional integration, and the availability of institutional substitutes. Within this context, the authors propose changes that will better sustain the prosperity and peace that have marked Asia in recent decades.
eBook
Institutions and Investors: The Politics of the Economic Crisis in Southeast Asia
I develop a systematic argument about the politics of the 1997–98 Asian economic crisis. I focus on institutions—specifically, the connection linking the institutional framework of national politics, the policy environment, and investment. I seek to resolve the tension between the literatures on credible policy commitment and policy flexibility, arguing that if either is severely undersupplied, the risk associated with the policy environment rises rapidly for investors. Building on a veto player framework, I develop a simple model of a U-shaped relationship between the number of veto players in a political system and policy risk to investors. Institutional vetoes on executive authority lower policy risk for investors but only up to a point, after which additional veto players promote unwelcome policy rigidity. I illustrate this using four cases: Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia, the four main Southeast Asian countries involved in the financial crisis. I argue that the institutional framework of national politics had a powerful and predictable influence on policy responses and investor reactions.
Journal Article
Interpreting Indonesian Foreign Policy: The Case of Kampuchea, 1979-1986
THIS EASY ON INDONESIA'S STANCE TOWARD KAMPUCHEA IN THE YEARS SINCE THE VIETNAMESE OVERTHROW OF POT ATTEMPTS TO UNRAVEL SOME OF THE THREADS RUNNING THROUGH INDONESIA'S FOREIGN POLICY AND POINT OUT SOME OF THE INTRICACIES INVOLVED IN FOREIGN POLICY MAKING IN SOUTHEAST ASIA'S LARGEST NATION. IT CONCLUDES BY CONSIDERING POSSIBLE FUTURE DIRECTIONS FOR INDONESIAN DIPLOMACY.
Journal Article
Political Institutions and the Economic Crisis in Thailand and Indonesia
The economic crisis in Southeast Asia has not been driven only by factors such as pegged exchange rates, heavy short-term foreign borrowing, and hopelessly inadequate financial sector regulation; politics has also been important. Indeed, in any case where there is a massive loss of investor confidence it would be difficult for politics not to be involved. In arguing for some attention to be paid to political factors, this article seeks to focus on one particular variable: political structure. In both Thailand and Indonesia, political structure greatly compounded the task of responding to the crisis and thereby served to intensify the economic destruction even though this common problem originated in different ways and stemmed from different institutional problems.
Journal Article
Epidemiology and Heritability of Major Depressive Disorder, Stratified by Age of Onset, Sex, and Illness Course in Generation Scotland: Scottish Family Health Study (GS:SFHS)
The heritability of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) has been estimated at 37% based largely on twin studies that rely on contested assumptions. More recently, the heritability of MDD has been estimated on large populations from registries such as the Swedish, Finnish, and Chinese cohorts. Family-based designs utilise a number of different relationships and provide an alternative means of estimating heritability. Generation Scotland: Scottish Family Health Study (GS:SFHS) is a large (n = 20,198), family-based population study designed to identify the genetic determinants of common diseases, including Major Depressive Disorder. Two thousand seven hundred and six individuals were SCID diagnosed with MDD, 13.5% of the cohort, from which we inferred a population prevalence of 12.2% (95% credible interval: 11.4% to 13.1%). Increased risk of MDD was associated with being female, unemployed due to a disability, current smokers, former drinkers, and living in areas of greater social deprivation. The heritability of MDD in GS:SFHS was between 28% and 44%, estimated from a pedigree model. The genetic correlation of MDD between sexes, age of onset, and illness course were examined and showed strong genetic correlations. The genetic correlation between males and females with MDD was 0.75 (0.43 to 0.99); between earlier (≤ age 40) and later (> age 40) onset was 0.85 (0.66 to 0.98); and between single and recurrent episodic illness course was 0.87 (0.72 to 0.98). We found that the heritability of recurrent MDD illness course was significantly greater than the heritability of single MDD illness course. The study confirms a moderate genetic contribution to depression, with a small contribution of the common family environment (variance proportion = 0.07, CI: 0.01 to 0.15), and supports the relationship of MDD with previously identified risk factors. This study did not find robust support for genetic differences in MDD due to sex, age of onset, or illness course. However, we found an intriguing difference in heritability between recurrent and single MDD illness course. These findings establish GS:SFHS as a valuable cohort for the genetic investigation of MDD.
Journal Article
The Dynamics of Economic Policy Reform in South-East Asia and the South-West Pacific
A book review is presented of The Dynamics of Economic Policy Reform in South-East Asia and the South-West Pacific, edited by Andrew J. MacIntyre and Kanishka Jayasuriya.
Book Review