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Evaluating complex interventions is complicated. The Medical Research Council's evaluation framework (2000) brought welcome clarity to the task. Now the council has updated its guidance

Natural experimental studies are often recommended as a way of understanding the health impact of policies and other large scale interventions. Although they have certain advantages over planned experiments, and may be the only option when it is impossible to manipulate exposure to the intervention, natural experimental studies are more susceptible to bias. This paper introduces new guidance from the Medical Research Council to help researchers and users, funders and publishers of research evidence make the best use of natural experimental approaches to evaluating population health interventions. The guidance emphasises that natural experiments can provide convincing evidence of impact even when effects are small or take time to appear. However, a good understanding is needed of the process determining exposure to the intervention, and careful choice and combination of methods, testing of assumptions and transparent reporting is vital. More could be learnt from natural experiments in future as experience of promising but lesser used methods accumulates.

Global warming is destabilizing the cryosphere, with consequences for glaciers, permafrost, sea ice and lake ice. Polar lakes have short ice‐free seasons, and small changes in ice cover duration have the potential to provoke alterations to ecosystem structure. However, these lakes are understudied, and the consequences for mixing regimes, thermal structures and biogeochemical processes remain unclear. We measured three annual cycles of dissolved oxygen, temperature and specific conductivity in a lake at ∼83°N to investigate limnological processes and their interannual variability. There were sharp interannual contrasts in lake dynamics, with state shifts in mixing, stratification and oxygen regimes due to air temperature variability and meteorological events. We also observed unusual thermal profiles that were associated with solute gradients. These striking differences underscore the sensitivity of high Arctic lakes to interannual variations in meteorological forcing, and their susceptibility to regime shifts in response to ongoing global change. Plain Language Summary Lakes are biodiversity refuges, climate regulators and providers of ecosystem services. High Arctic lakes experience brief summer ice‐free periods and their annual dynamics remain largely unexplored despite their location in one of the most rapidly warming regions on Earth. In particular, patterns of thermal structure and oxygen dynamics have rarely been measured. We studied three complete annual cycles in a coastal lake less than 100 km south of the northernmost land on Earth. The observed limnological dynamics highlight the potential for rapid regime shifts in polar lakes and underline their sensitivity to interannual differences in environmental conditions. Key Points Pronounced shifts in lake oxygen and temperature dynamics occur due to interannual air temperature variation and meteorological episodes Divergent annual trajectories in lake structure and functioning highlight the vulnerability of high Arctic lakes to climate change

Small ponds, numerous throughout the Arctic, are often supersaturated with climate-forcing trace gases. Improving estimates of emissions requires quantifying (1) their mixing dynamics and (2) near-surface turbulence which would enable emissions. To this end, we instrumented an arctic pond (510 m², 1 m deep) with a meteorological station, a thermistor array, and a vertically oriented acoustic Doppler velocimeter. We contrastedmeasured turbulence, as the rate of dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy, ε, with values predicted from Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) based on wind shear as u *w, the water friction velocity, and buoyancy flux, β, under cooling. Stratification varied over diel cycles; the thermocline upwelled as winds changed allowing ventilation of near-bottom water. Near-surface temperature stratification was up to 7°C per meter. With respect to predictions from MOST: (1) With positive β under heating and strong near-surface stratification, turbulence was suppressed; (2) under heating with moderate stratification and under cooling with light to moderate winds, measured ε was in agreement with MOST; (3) under cooling with no wind and when surface currents had ceased, as occurred 20% of the time, turbulence was measurable and predicted from β. Near-surface turbulence was enhanced under cooling and light winds relative to that under a neutral atmosphere due to higher values of drag coefficients under unstable atmospheres. Small ponds are dynamic systems with wind-induced thermocline tilting enabling vertical exchanges. Near-surface turbulence, similar to that in larger systems, can be computed from surface meteorology enabling accurate estimates of gas transfer coefficients and emissions.

The hydrodynamics within small boreal lakes have rarely been studied, yet knowing whether turbulence at the air–water interface and in the water column scales with metrics developed elsewhere is essential for computing metabolism and fluxes of climate-forcing trace gases. We instrumented a humic, 4.7 ha, boreal lake with two meteorological stations, three thermistor arrays, an infrared (IR) camera to quantify surface divergence, obtained turbulence as dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy (ε) using an acoustic Doppler velocimeter and a temperature-gradient microstructure profiler, and conducted chamber measurements for short periods to obtain fluxes and gas transfer velocities (k). Near-surface ε varied from 10−8 to 10−6 m² s−3 for the 0–4 m s−1 winds and followed predictions from Monin–Obukhov similarity theory. The coefficient of eddy diffusivity in the mixed layer was up to 10−3 m² s−1 on the windiest afternoons, an order of magnitude less other afternoons, and near molecular at deeper depths. The upper thermocline upwelled when Lake numbers (LN ) dropped below four facilitating vertical and horizontal exchange. k computed from a surface renewal model using ε agreed with values from chambers and surface divergence and increased linearly with wind speed. Diurnal thermoclines formed on sunny days when winds were < 3 m s−1, a condition that can lead to elevated near-surface ε and k. Results extend scaling approaches developed in the laboratory and for larger water bodies, illustrate turbulence and k are greater than expected in small wind-sheltered lakes, and provide new equations to quantify fluxes.

Gas fluxes from lakes and other stratified water bodies, computed using conservative values of the gas transfer coefficient k600, have been shown to be a significant component of the carbon cycle. We present a mechanistic analysis of the dominant physical processes modifying k600 in a stratified lake and resulting new models of k600 whose use will enable improved computation of carbon fluxes. Using eddy covariance results, we demonstrate that i) higher values of k600 occur during low to moderate winds with surface cooling than with surface heating; ii) under overnight low wind conditions k600 depends on buoyancy flux β rather than wind speed; iii) the meteorological conditions at the time of measurement and the inertia within the lake determine k600; and iv) eddy covariance estimates of k600 compare well with predictions of k600 using a surface renewal model based on wind speed and β.

Arctic climate change is leading to accelerated melting of permafrost and the mobilization of soil organic carbon pools that have accumulated over thousands of years. Photochemical and microbial transformation will liberate a fraction of this carbon to the atmosphere in the form of CO₂ and CH₄. We quantified these fluxes in a series of permafrost thaw ponds in the Canadian Subarctic and Arctic and further investigated how optical properties of the carbon pool, the type of microbial assemblages, and light and mixing regimes influenced the rate of gas release. Most ponds were supersaturated in CO₂ and all of them in CH₄. Gas fluxes as estimated from dissolved gas concentrations using a wind-based model varied from -20.5 to 114.4 mmol CO₂ m⁻² d⁻¹, with negative fluxes recorded in arctic ponds colonized by benthic microbial mats, and from 0.03 to 5.62 mmol CH₄ m⁻² d⁻¹. From a time series set of measurements in a subarctic pond over 8 d, calculated gas fluxes were on average 40% higher when using a newly derived equation for the gas transfer coefficient developed from eddy covariance measurements. The daily variation in gas fluxes was highly dependent on mixed layer dynamics. At the seasonal timescale, persistent thermal stratification and gas buildup at depth indicated that autumnal overturn is a critically important period for greenhouse gas emissions from subarctic ponds. These results underscore the increasingly important contribution of permafrost thaw ponds to greenhouse gas emissions and the need to account for local and regional variability in their limnological properties for global estimates.

Extensive floodplains and numerous lakes in the Amazon basin are well suited to examine the role of floodable lands within the context of the sources and processing of carbon within inland waters. We measured diel, seasonal and inter-annual variations of CO2 concentrations and related environmental variables in open water and flooded vegetation and estimated their habitat area using remote sensing in a representative Amazon floodplain lake, Lake Janauacá. Variability in CO2 concentrations in open water resulted from changes in the extent of inundation and exchange with vegetated habitats. Depth-averaged values of CO2 in the open water of the lake, 157 ± 91 µM (mean ± SD), were less than those in an embayment near aquatic vegetation, 285 ± 116 µM, and were variable over 24-h periods at both sites. Within floating herbaceous plant mats, the mean concentration was 275 ± 77 µM, while in flooded forests it was 217 ± 78 µM. The best statistical model that included CO2 in aquatic plant mats, water clarity, rate of change in water level and chlorophyll-a concentrations explained around 90% of the variability in CO2 concentration. Three-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling demonstrated that diel differences in water temperature between plant mats and open water as well as basin-scale motions caused lateral exchanges of CO2 between vegetated habitats and open water. Our findings extend understanding of CO2 in tropical lakes and floodplains with measurements and models that emphasize the importance of flooded forests and aquatic herbaceous plants fringing floodplain lakes as sources of CO2 to open waters.

The goals of our study were to (1) quantify production of CO2 during winter ice‐cover in arctic lakes, (2) develop methodologies which would enable prediction of CO2 production from readily measured variables, and (3) improve understanding of under‐ice circulation as it influences the distribution of dissolved gases under the ice. To that end, we combined in situ measurements with profile data. CO2 production averaged 20 mg C m−2 d−1 in a 3 m deep lake and ∼ 45 mg C m−2 d−1 in four larger lakes, similar to experimental observations at temperatures below 4°C. CO2 production was predicted by the initial rate of loss of oxygen near the sediments at ice‐on and by the full water column loss of oxygen throughout the winter. The time series data also showed the lake‐size and time dependent contribution of sediment respiration to under‐ice circulation and the decreased near‐bottom flows enabling anoxia and CH4 accumulation.