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There is a great need for physicians in Tanzania. In 2012, there were approximately 0.31 physicians per 10,000 individuals nationwide, with a lower ratio in the rural areas, where the majority of the population resides. In response, universities across Tanzania have greatly increased the enrollment of medical students. Yet evidence suggests high attrition of medical graduates to other professions and emigration from rural areas where they are most needed. To estimate the future number of physicians practicing in Tanzania and the potential impact of interventions to improve retention, we built a model that tracks medical students from enrollment through clinical practice, from 1990 to 2025. We designed a Markov process with 92 potential states capturing the movement of 25,000 medical students and physicians from medical training through employment. Work possibilities included clinical practice (divided into rural or urban, public or private), non-clinical work, and emigration. We populated and calibrated the model using a national 2005/2006 physician mapping survey, as well as graduation records, graduate tracking surveys, and other available data. The model projects massive losses to clinical practice between 2016 and 2025, especially in rural areas. Approximately 56% of all medical school students enrolled between 2011 and 2020 will not be practicing medicine in Tanzania in 2025. Even with these losses, the model forecasts an increase in the physician-to-population ratio to 1.4 per 10,000 by 2025. Increasing the absorption of recent graduates into the public sector and/or developing a rural training track would ameliorate physician attrition in the most underserved areas. Tanzania is making significant investments in the training of physicians. Without linking these doctors to employment and ensuring their retention, the majority of this investment in medical education will be jeopardized.

An early requirement of the UK's Diabetes National Service Framework is enumeration of the total affected population. Existing estimates tend to be based on incomplete lists. In a study conducted over one year in North Liverpool, we compared crude prevalence rates for type 1 and type 2 diabetes with estimates obtained by capture-recapture (CR) analysis of multiple incomplete patient lists, to assess the extent of unascertained but diagnosed cases. Patient databases were constructed from six sources—a hospital diabetes centre; general practitioner registers; hospital admissions with a diagnosis of diabetes; a hospital diabetic retinal clinic; a research list of patients with diabetes admitted with stroke; and a local children's hospital. Log linear modelling was used to estimate missing cases, hence total prevalence. The crude prevalence of diabetes was 1.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.41, 1.52), compared with a CR-adjusted rate of 3.1% (CI 3.03, 3.19). Age-banded CR-adjusted prevalence was always higher in males than in females and the difference became more pronounced with increasing age. Among males, CR-adjusted prevalence rose from 0.4% at age 10-19 years to 18.3% at 80+ years; in females the corresponding figures were 0.4% and 9.3%. The gap between crude and CR-estimated prevalence points to a rate of ‘hidden diabetes’ that has substantial implications for future diabetes care.

Background There is a great need for physicians in Tanzania. In 2012, there were approximately 0.31 physicians per 10,000 individuals nationwide, with a lower ratio in the rural areas, where the majority of the population resides. In response, universities across Tanzania have greatly increased the enrollment of medical students. Yet evidence suggests high attrition of medical graduates to other professions and emigration from rural areas where they are most needed. Objective To estimate the future number of physicians practicing in Tanzania and the potential impact of interventions to improve retention, we built a model that tracks medical students from enrollment through clinical practice, from 1990 to 2025. Design We designed a Markov process with 92 potential states capturing the movement of 25,000 medical students and physicians from medical training through employment. Work possibilities included clinical practice (divided into rural or urban, public or private), non-clinical work, and emigration. We populated and calibrated the model using a national 2005/2006 physician mapping survey, as well as graduation records, graduate tracking surveys, and other available data. Results The model projects massive losses to clinical practice between 2016 and 2025, especially in rural areas. Approximately 56% of all medical school students enrolled between 2011 and 2020 will not be practicing medicine in Tanzania in 2025. Even with these losses, the model forecasts an increase in the physician-to-population ratio to 1.4 per 10,000 by 2025. Increasing the absorption of recent graduates into the public sector and/or developing a rural training track would ameliorate physician attrition in the most underserved areas. Conclusions Tanzania is making significant investments in the training of physicians. Without linking these doctors to employment and ensuring their retention, the majority of this investment in medical education will be jeopardized.

The achievement of `Health for all by the year 2000' will depend on the attention which is given to improving the health of children growing up in the Third-World countries. This paper explores some of the major areas of concern in this field-infant mortality, low birth weight, infant-feeding practices, disease and malnutrition-and indicates some opportunities for the biometrician to contribute to progress towards the target set for the year 2000.

Surgical conditions contribute significantly to the disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa. Yet there is an apparent neglect of surgical care as a public health intervention to counter this burden. There is increasing enthusiasm to reverse this trend, by promoting essential surgical services at the district hospital, the first point of contact for critical conditions for rural populations. This study investigated the scope of surgery conducted at district hospitals in three sub-Saharan African countries. In a retrospective descriptive study, field data were collected from eight district hospitals in Uganda, Tanzania, and Mozambique using a standardized form and interviews with key informants. Overall, the scope of surgical procedures performed was narrow and included mainly essential and life-saving emergency procedures. Surgical output varied across hospitals from five to 45 major procedures/10,000 people. Obstetric operations were most common and included cesarean sections and uterine evacuations. Hernia repair and wound care accounted for 65% of general surgical procedures. The number of beds in the studied hospitals ranged from 0.2 to 1.0 per 1,000 population. The findings of this study clearly indicate low levels of surgical care provision at the district level for the hospitals studied. The extent to which this translates into unmet need remains unknown although the very low proportions of live births in the catchment areas of these eight hospitals that are born by cesarean section suggest that there is a substantial unmet need for surgical services. The district hospital in the current health system in sub-Saharan Africa lends itself to feasible integration of essential surgery into the spectrum of comprehensive primary care services. It is therefore critical that the surgical capacity of the district hospital is significantly expanded; this will result in sustainable preventable morbidity and mortality. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

The pathophysiology and trajectory of post-Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) syndrome is uncertain. To clarify multisystem involvement, we undertook a prospective cohort study including patients who had been hospitalized with COVID-19 (ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT04403607 ). Serial blood biomarkers, digital electrocardiography and patient-reported outcome measures were obtained in-hospital and at 28–60 days post-discharge when multisystem imaging using chest computed tomography with pulmonary and coronary angiography and cardio-renal magnetic resonance imaging was also obtained. Longer-term clinical outcomes were assessed using electronic health records. Compared to controls ( n  = 29), at 28–60 days post-discharge, people with COVID-19 ( n  = 159; mean age, 55 years; 43% female) had persisting evidence of cardio-renal involvement and hemostasis pathway activation. The adjudicated likelihood of myocarditis was ‘very likely’ in 21 (13%) patients, ‘probable’ in 65 (41%) patients, ‘unlikely’ in 56 (35%) patients and ‘not present’ in 17 (11%) patients. At 28–60 days post-discharge, COVID-19 was associated with worse health-related quality of life (EQ-5D-5L score 0.77 (0.23) versus 0.87 (0.20)), anxiety and depression (PHQ-4 total score 3.59 (3.71) versus 1.28 (2.67)) and aerobic exercise capacity reflected by predicted maximal oxygen utilization (20.0 (7.6) versus 29.5 (8.0) ml/kg/min) (all P  < 0.01). During follow-up (mean, 450 days), 24 (15%) patients and two (7%) controls died or were rehospitalized, and 108 (68%) patients and seven (26%) controls received outpatient secondary care ( P  = 0.017). The illness trajectory of patients after hospitalization with COVID-19 includes persisting multisystem abnormalities and health impairments that could lead to substantial demand on healthcare services in the future. Deep clinical phenotyping at 28–60 days post-discharge of patients who had been hospitalized with COVID-19 and subsequent long-term follow-up with electronic health records reveal evidence of persistent cardio-renal involvement.

Terbium-161 (161Tb) emits beta-radiation similar to lutetium-177 (177Lu), with additional radiation over ultra-short path lengths from Auger electrons. 161Tb has shown superior in-vitro and in-vivo efficacy compared with 177Lu. We aimed to evaluate the safety of [161Tb]Tb-PSMA-I&T in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). VIOLET was an investigator-initiated, single-centre, phase 1/2 trial, conducted at the Peter MacCallum Cancer Centre (Melbourne, VIC, Australia). Eligible patients were men aged 18 years or older with progressive mCRPC (histologically or cytologically confirmed adenocarcinoma of the prostate or unequivocal diagnosis of metastatic prostate cancer with an elevated serum prostate specific antigen) previously treated with an androgen receptor pathway inhibitor and taxane chemotherapy (unless medically unsuitable), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status of 0–2, and prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA) positivity (maximum standardised uptake value ≥20 on PSMA PET-CT) without discordance on 2-[18F]fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose (FDG) PET-CT. Dose escalation (3 + 3 design) had three prespecified radioactivities (4·4 GBq, 5·5 GBq, and 7·4 GBq). Up to six cycles of [161Tb]Tb-PSMA-I&T were administered intravenously every 6 weeks, reduced by 0·4 GBq for each cycle. Primary endpoints of phase 1 were dose-limiting toxicities, the maximum tolerated dose, and the recommended phase 2 dose, and the primary objective of phase 2 was evaluation of adverse events as defined by Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 5.0. We present here an interim analysis, with follow-up ongoing and recruitment reopened for an additional dose level (9·5 GBq). The trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05521412). Between Oct 14, 2022 and Feb 15, 2024, 30 eligible patients were enrolled. Median age was 69·0 years (IQR 66·0–74·8), screening PSA 26·9 ng/mL (10·1–70·0), PSMA mean standardised uptake value 8·2 (7·4–10·8), and 20 (67%) of 30 patients had received previous docetaxel. There were no dose-limiting toxicities. The maximum administered dose and recommended phase 2 dose was 7·4 GBq. Grade 3 treatment-related adverse events (TRAEs) were limited to pain (one [3%] of 30; the only serious TRAE) and lymphopenia (one [3%] of 30). No grade 4 TRAEs or treatment-related deaths occurred. No dose reductions or treatment discontinuation occurred for toxicity. [161Tb]Tb-PSMA-I&T is safe at the maximum administered dose of 7·4 GBq. Further investigation of this promising radionuclide is warranted in larger, randomised clinical trials. Prostate Cancer Foundation, Peter MacCallum Cancer Foundation, National Health and Medical Research Council Investigator Grant, Isotopia Molecular Imaging.