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Despite the widespread use of ecological niche models (ENMs) for predicting the responses of species to climate change, these models do not explicitly incorporate any population‐level mechanism. On the other hand, mechanistic models adding population processes (e.g. biotic interactions, dispersal and adaptive potential to abiotic conditions) are much more complex and difficult to parameterize, especially if the goal is to predict range shifts for many species simultaneously. In particular, the adaptive potential (based on genetic adaptations, phenotypic plasticity and behavioral adjustments for physiological responses) of local populations has been a less studied mechanism affecting species’ responses to climatic change so far. Here, we discuss and apply an alternative macroecological framework to evaluate the potential role of evolutionary rescue under climate change based on ENMs. We begin by reviewing eco‐evolutionary models that evaluate the maximum sustainable evolutionary rate under a scenario of environmental change, showing how they can be used to understand the impact of temperature change on a Neotropical anuran species, the Schneider's toad Rhinella diptycha. Then we show how to evaluate spatial patterns of species’ geographic range shift using such models, by estimating evolutionary rates at the trailing edge of species distribution estimated by ENMs and by recalculating the relative amount of total range loss under climate change. We show how different models can reduce the expected range loss predicted for the studied species by potential ecophysiological adaptations in some regions of the trailing edge predicted by ENMs. For general applications, we believe that parameters for large numbers of species and populations can be obtained from macroecological generalizations (e.g. allometric equations and ecogeographical rules), so our framework coupling ENMs with eco‐evolutionary models can be applied to achieve a more accurate picture of potential impacts from climate change and other threats to biodiversity.

The Sinos River encompasses a wide area of natural habitats and, at the same time, supports one of the highest population densities of southern Brazil. Consequently, natural habitats along the Basin present a high degree of habitat disturbance. Despite of the existence of threatened species, information about diversity of amphibians in that area is scarce. Thus, we aimed to catalogue the amphibian species of the Sinos River Basin from records in scientific collections and compilation of published articles. We recorded 52 species, all with geographic coordinates validated at the collection point, indicating that the Sinos River Basin harbours about 50% of the amphibian species of the State of Rio Grande do Sul. Three anuran species were classified as having some degree of threat: Melanophryniscus cambaraensis , Melanophryniscus dorsalis and Thoropa saxatilis . We also expected other 18 species with a high probability of occurrence in the Basin. This work shows that, despite the intense human impact, the Sinos River Basin has a relevant role for the maintenance of a considerable fraction of the amphibian biodiversity in southern Brazil.

Systematic assessments of species extinction risk at regular intervals are necessary for informing conservation action1,2. Ongoing developments in taxonomy, threatening processes and research further underscore the need for reassessment3,4. Here we report the findings of the second Global Amphibian Assessment, evaluating 8,011 species for the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species. We find that amphibians are the most threatened vertebrate class (40.7% of species are globally threatened). The updated Red List Index shows that the status of amphibians is deteriorating globally, particularly for salamanders and in the Neotropics. Disease and habitat loss drove 91% of status deteriorations between 1980 and 2004. Ongoing and projected climate change effects are now of increasing concern, driving 39% of status deteriorations since 2004, followed by habitat loss (37%). Although signs of species recoveries incentivize immediate conservation action, scaled-up investment is urgently needed to reverse the current trends.

Microbial diversity positively influences community resilience of the host microbiome. However, extinction risk factors such as habitat specialization, narrow environmental tolerances, and exposure to anthropogenic disturbance may homogenize host-associated microbial communities critical for stress responses including disease defense. In a dataset containing 43 threatened and 90 non-threatened amphibian species across two biodiversity hotspots (Brazil’s Atlantic Forest and Madagascar), we found that threatened host species carried lower skin bacterial diversity, after accounting for key environmental and host factors. The consistency of our findings across continents suggests the broad scale at which low bacteriome diversity may compromise pathogen defenses in species already burdened with the threat of extinction.

The Data Availability section included the wrong link, which has been updated to https://www.iucnredlist.org/resources/data-repository. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecom mons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. © The Author(s) 2023

Obesity, air pollution, and exercise induce alterations in the heat shock response (HSR), in both intracellular 70 kDa heat shock proteins (iHSP70) and the plasmatic extracellular form (eHSP72). Extra-to-intracellular HSP70 ratio (H-index = eHSP70/iHSP70 ratio) represents a candidate biomarker of subclinical health status. This study investigated the effects of moderate- and high-intensity exercise in the HSR and oxidative stress parameters, in obese mice exposed to fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Thirty-day-old male isogenic B6129F2/J mice were maintained for 16 weeks on standard chow or high-fat diet (HFD). Then, mice were exposed to either saline or 50 μg of PM2.5 by intranasal instillation and subsequently maintained at rest or subjected to moderate- or high-intensity swimming exercise. HFD mice exhibited high adiposity and glucose intolerance at week 16th. HFD mice submitted to moderate- or high-intensity exercise were not able to complete the exercise session and showed lower levels of eHSP70 and H-index, when compared to controls. PM2.5 exposure modified the glycaemic response to exercise and modified hematological responses in HFD mice. Our study suggests that obesity is a critical health condition for exercise prescription under PM2.5 exposure.