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"Macharis, Cathy"
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The influence of ergodicity on risk affinity of timed and non-timed respondents
Expected values are the metric most often used to judge human decision-making; when humans make decisions that do not optimize expected values, these decisions are considered irrational. However, while convenient, expected values do not necessarily describe the evolution of an individual after making a series of decisions. This dichotomy lies at the core of ergodicity breaking, where the expected value (ensemble average) differs from the temporal average of one individual. In this paper, we explore whether the intuition behind human decision-making optimizes for expected values or instead takes time growth rates into account. We do this using several stated choice experiments, where participants choose between two stochastic bets and try to optimize their capital. To evaluate the intuitive choice, we compare two groups, with and without perceived time pressure. We find a significant difference between the responses of the timed and the control group, depending on the dynamic of the choices. In an additive dynamic, where ergodicity is not broken, we observe no effect of time pressure on the decisions. In the non-ergodic, multiplicative setting, we find a significant difference between the two groups. The group that chooses under time pressure is more likely to make the choice that optimizes the experiment’s growth rate. The results of this experiment contradict the idea that people are irrational decision-makers when they do not optimize their expected value. The intuitive decisions deviate more from the expected value optimum in the non-ergodic part of our experiment and lead to more optimal decisions.
Journal Article
Sustainable logistics
This book will bring a state of the art overview of the research done in sustainable logistics. It will be structured along the four Aas of sustainable logistics: awareness, avoidance, acting and shifting goods, and anticipation of new technologies.
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Crowd logistics: an opportunity for more sustainable urban freight transport?
PurposePassenger car occupancy has been falling for years. Partly empty vehicles on our road networks decrease passenger transport sustainability but also contain an opportunity for freight transport. Within Crowd logistics (CL), delivery operations are carried out by using passengers’ excess capacity on journeys that are already taking place, resulting in economic, social and environmental benefits. Existing CL initiatives show, however, that there are important differences between concepts in terms of sustainability. The research aims to develop a suitable and comprehensive definition for CL and identify which factors determine the sustainability potential of CL.MethodsWe systematically analysed a set of 42 papers and interviewed 11 logistics practitioners in order to capture the state of practice.ResultsFollowing the literature and interviews, we firstly define CL as ‘an information connectivity enabled marketplace concept that matches supply and demand for logistics services with an undefined and external crowd that has free capacity with regards to time and/or space, participates on a voluntary basis and is compensated accordingly’. Secondly, we identify a set of 18 characteristics that can describe the variety of CL concepts. Thirdly, we indicate whether the identified characteristics affect the economy, society and/or environment. The research shows that all characteristics influence economic sustainability while 11 characteristics also affect social and/or environmental sustainability.ConclusionsOur research helps local policy-makers to adapt laws and regulations to the sharing economy developments and provides insight for businesses which CL concept fits their company’s corporate social responsibility strategy.
Journal Article
Barriers and opportunities for developing, implementing and operating inclusive digital mobility services
As digital mobility services increasingly reshape the transportation landscape, offering a multitude of choices for users, a significant lack of equality emerges: vulnerable-to-exclusion groups are often left behind, unable to equally access digital transport services. This study investigates the opportunities to create inclusive and accessible digital mobility services, based on the viewpoints of developers, operators, and policy makers. Through 32 semi-structured interviews with stakeholders, we look into the existing regulatory frameworks, the extent of user involvement in service (re-)development, considerations for data protection and privacy for vulnerable groups, and the financial aspects supporting the development and operation of inclusive digital transport services. A thematic content analysis reveals a complex challenge: a lack of effective communication, collaboration, and co-creation across the majority of services, in combination with a widespread failure to disseminate insights among stakeholders, resulting in a lack of knowledge about vulnerable-to-exclusion groups. Despite a general awareness of the importance of inclusive design, actionable steps to achieve inclusive digital services remain scarce, with only a handful of services actively pursuing these goals. Our findings push for a comprehensive approach that enhances clear communication, stakeholder collaboration, and promotes the co-creation of services, while also protecting vulnerable users' data and thereby bridging the accessibility gap to ensure that the benefits of digital mobility extend to all users, including those most at risk of exclusion.
Journal Article
Synchromodal transport re-planning: an agent-based simulation approach
In the rapidly evolving global marketplace, the logistics sector faces a multitude of challenges that demand implementation of more resilient solutions to respond to any future disturbance. Synchromodal transport, which is viewed as an extension of multimodal transport, is known as a key answer to this issue, as it provides more flexible and sustainable freight transport and also focuses on collaboration between different logistics players. We consider synchromodal transport as a collection of agents that not only have their own characteristics and behaviors, but also interact with each other, which impacts the entire system. In this paper, we study the system using an Agent-Based Modeling approach. The network represents the combination of long-haul and drayage transport, where pre-haulage and end-haulage are done only by truck, and the rest can be done by trucks, trains, or barges. A numerical experiment is conducted to evaluate cost savings and emissions reduction under different logistics service providers’ relation and re-routing scenarios. Our findings show that synchromodal scenarios are more economically and environmentally efficient, and that they lead to higher flexibility and reliability compared to business-as-usual scenarios. Additionally, our model verifies that the cost saving is considerable when logistics service providers collaborate with each other. The results of sensitivity analyses show consistent overall trends when comparing the different scenarios. Therefore, the conclusions drawn from the original experiment appear to be applicable, not only for that specific instance, but have broader relevance and applicability.
Journal Article
Evaluating the Potential of MAMCA as a Framework for Stakeholder Engagement during the Setup of Energy Communities
The current energy transition is characterized by a high level of consumer and prosumer involvement. Energy communities (ECs) are instruments that fit into this trend, as they organize the collective and mainly citizen-driven exchange of clean energy. Most stakeholder engagement research for ECs focuses on one aspect such as awareness raising or deployment acceptance. Hitherto, no specific research has been conducted on a participatory approach that can be applied throughout all the phases of an EC setup and for different purposes. In our study, we determine how the Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria analysis (MAMCA) methodology can be used as an engagement tool for this purpose. By linking potential engagement goals and their connected tools and techniques to the corresponding MAMCA step, we have created a multi-layered practical framework that can be used by all types of EC initiators for stakeholder engagement throughout the setup of a new EC. As this practical tool stimulates solutions that cater better to stakeholder needs, it can contribute to smoother deployment and an associated increase in ECs in the general system. A theoretical evaluation and a performed case study demonstrate the utility of the methodology that is developed in this paper.
Journal Article
A Range-Based Vehicle Life Cycle Assessment Incorporating Variability in the Environmental Assessment of Different Vehicle Technologies and Fuels
How to compare the environmental performance of different vehicle technologies? Vehicles with lower tailpipe emissions are perceived as cleaner. However, does it make sense to look only to tailpipe emissions? Limiting the comparison only to these emissions denies the fact that there are emissions involved during the production of a fuel and this approach gives too much advantage to zero-tailpipe vehicles like battery electric vehicles (BEV) and fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV). Would it be enough to combine fuel production and tailpipe emissions? Especially when comparing the environmental performance of alternative vehicle technologies, the emissions during production of the specific components and their appropriate end-of-life treatment processes should also be taken into account. Therefore, the complete life cycle of the vehicle should be included in order to avoid problem shifting from one life stage to another. In this article, a full life cycle assessment (LCA) of petrol, diesel, fuel cell electric (FCEV), compressed natural gas (CNG), liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), hybrid electric, battery electric (BEV), bio-diesel and bio-ethanol vehicles has been performed. The aim of the manuscript is to investigate the impact of the different vehicle technologies on the environment and to develop a range-based modeling system that enables a more robust interpretation of the LCA results for a group of vehicles. Results are shown for climate change, respiratory effects, acidification and mineral extraction damage of the different vehicle technologies. A broad range of results is obtained due to the variability within the car market. It is concluded that it is essential to take into account the influence of all the vehicle parameters on the LCA results.
Journal Article
Analyzing passenger and freight vehicle movements from automatic-Number plate recognition camera data
Modern urban-transport planning requires evidence-based insights into current transport flows to better understand the needs and impacts of policymaking. Urban transport includes passenger and freight vehicles, which have different behavior, and the need for such a separation is often ignored in research and practice [1]. New digital data sources provide an opportunity to better understand urban transport and identify where policy interventions are required. We review the literature on digital counting techniques to monitor transport flows, including loops, Automatic-Number Plate Recognition (ANPR) cameras and floating car data. We further investigate the potential of ANPR cameras, which are widely deployed, and which can be augmented with vehicle category information. This article presents the methodology that we follow for transforming raw augmented ANPR camera data into practical knowledge for city planners. Our is aim is to provide a better understanding of passenger and freight vehicle movements and stops, identifying similarities and differences between vehicle categories. We demonstrate our methodology on a case study for the Mechelen-Willebroek district in Belgium, encompassing augmented data from 122 ANPR cameras for a period of two weeks. Additionally, we also look at the car-reduced zone and how time restrictions affect the different vehicle categories’ actions. The findings are validated with GPS data from heavy-good vehicles in the same period. The potential of augmented ANPR camera data and promising themes and applications of this data source are illustrated through the case study.
Journal Article
Pathways to Decarbonise the European Car Fleet: A Scenario Analysis Using the Backcasting Approach
This paper analyses decarbonisation scenarios for the European passenger car fleet in 2050. The scenarios have been developed using the backcasting approach and aim to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of passenger cars to a level defined in the Transport White paper that is 60% below 1990 levels. Considering the emission levels of 2010, a yearly reduction of 1.7% is required in order to achieve the target. Car emissions were decomposed into the main emission factors of mobility, efficiency and carbon intensity. How these factors change over time depends on various external factors: the pace of technological improvements, the future role of cars in society’s mobility system and the priority given to decarbonising energy demand. The analysis showed that if car mobility and ownership continue to increase as expected in a ‘business as usual’ case, a share of 97% plug-in hybrid or battery electric vehicles might be required by 2050, together with a substantial decrease in greenhouse gas emission from electricity production. A transition to more advanced car technology such as automated driving, advanced batteries or lightweight materials in vehicle production would raise vehicle efficiency. Should car mobility continue at a high level, an early technology transition will be required.
Journal Article