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result(s) for
"Magarelli, Michele"
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Leveraging explainable AI to predict soil respiration sensitivity and its drivers for climate change mitigation
by
Amoroso, Nicola
,
Bellotti, Roberto
,
Monaco, Alfonso
in
639/705/1042
,
704/106/694/2786
,
Artificial Intelligence
2025
Global warming is one of the most pressing and critical problems facing the world today. It is mainly caused by the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide (CO
2
). Understanding how soils respond to rising temperatures is critical for predicting carbon release and informing climate mitigation strategies. Q
10
, a measure of soil microbial respiration, quantifies the increase in CO
2
release caused by a
Celsius rise in temperature, serving as a key indicator of this sensitivity. However, predicting Q
10
across diverse soil types remains a challenge, especially when considering the complex interactions between biochemical, microbiome, and environmental factors. In this study, we applied explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) to machine learning models to predict soil respiration sensitivity (Q
10
) and uncover the key factors driving this process. Using SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values, we identified glucose-induced soil respiration and the proportion of bacteria positively associated with Q
10
as the most influential predictors. Our machine learning models achieved an accuracy of
, precision of
, an AUC-ROC of
, and an AUC-PRC of
, ensuring robust and reliable predictions. By leveraging t-SNE (t-distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding) and clustering techniques, we further segmented low Q
10
soils into distinct subgroups, identifying soils with a higher probability of transitioning to high Q
10
states. Our findings not only highlight the potential of XAI in making model predictions transparent and interpretable, but also provide actionable insights into managing soil carbon release in response to climate change. This research bridges the gap between AI-driven environmental modeling and practical applications in agriculture, offering new directions for targeted soil management and climate resilience strategies.
Journal Article
Harnessing Digital Twins for Sustainable Agricultural Water Management: A Systematic Review
by
Amoroso, Nicola
,
Bellotti, Roberto
,
Monaco, Alfonso
in
Artificial intelligence
,
Crop diseases
,
Decision making
2025
This systematic review explores the use of digital twins (DT) for sustainable agricultural water management. DTs simulate real-time agricultural environments, enabling precise resource allocation, predictive maintenance, and scenario planning. AI enhances DT performance through machine learning (ML) and data-driven insights, optimizing water usage. In this study, from an initial pool of 48 papers retrieved from well-known databases such as Scopus and Web of Science, etc., a rigorous eligibility criterion was applied, narrowing the focus to 11 pertinent studies. This review highlights major disciplines where DT technology is being applied: hydroponics, aquaponics, vertical farming, and irrigation. Additionally, the literature identifies two key sub-applications within these disciplines: the simulation and prediction of water quality and soil water. This review also explores the types and maturity levels of DT technology and key concepts within these applications. Based on their current implementation, DTs in agriculture can be categorized into two functional types: monitoring DTs, which emphasize real-time response and environmental control, and predictive DTs, which enable proactive irrigation management through environmental forecasting. AI techniques used within the DT framework were also identified based on their applications. These findings underscore the transformative role that DT technology can play in enhancing efficiency and sustainability in agricultural water management. Despite technological advancements, challenges remain, including data integration, scalability, and cost barriers. Further studies should be conducted to explore these issues within practical farming environments.
Journal Article
Predictive and Explainable Machine Learning Models for Endocrine, Nutritional, and Metabolic Mortality in Italy Using Geolocalized Pollution Data
2025
This study investigated the predictive performance of three regression models—Gradient Boosting (GB), Random Forest (RF), and XGBoost—in forecasting mortality due to endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic diseases across Italian provinces. Utilizing a dataset encompassing air pollution metrics and socio-economic indices, the models were trained and tested to evaluate their accuracy and robustness. Performance was assessed using metrics such as coefficient of determination (r2), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean squared error (RMSE), revealing that GB outperformed both RF and XGB, offering superior predictive accuracy and model stability (r2 = 0.55, MAE = 0.17, and RMSE = 0.05). To further interpret the results, SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis was applied to the best-performing model to identify the most influential features driving mortality predictions. The analysis highlighted the critical roles of specific pollutants, including benzene and socio-economic factors such as life quality and instruction, in influencing mortality rates. These findings underscore the interplay between environmental and socio-economic determinants in health outcomes and provide actionable insights for policymakers aiming to reduce health disparities and mitigate risk factors. By combining advanced machine learning techniques with explainability tools, this research demonstrates the potential for data-driven approaches to inform public health strategies and promote targeted interventions in the context of complex environmental and social determinants of health.
Journal Article
Climate Change and Soil Health: Explainable Artificial Intelligence Reveals Microbiome Response to Warming
by
Amoroso, Nicola
,
Bellotti, Roberto
,
de Trizio, Lorenzo
in
Algorithms
,
Artificial intelligence
,
biomarker
2024
Climate change presents an unprecedented global challenge, demanding collective action to both mitigate its effects and adapt to its consequences. Soil health and function are profoundly impacted by climate change, particularly evident in the sensitivity of soil microbial respiration to warming, known as Q10. Q10 measures the rate of microbial respiration’s increase with a temperature rise of 10 degrees Celsius, playing a pivotal role in understanding soil carbon dynamics in response to climate change. Leveraging machine learning techniques, particularly explainable artificial intelligence (XAI), offers a promising avenue to analyze complex data and identify biomarkers crucial for developing innovative climate change mitigation strategies. This research aims to evaluate the extent to which chemical, physical, and microbiological soil characteristics are associated with high or low Q10 values, utilizing XAI approaches. The Extra Trees Classifier algorithm was employed, yielding an average accuracy of 0.923±0.009, an average AUCROC of 0.964±0.004, and an average AUCPRC of 0.963±0.006. Additionally, through XAI techniques, we elucidate the significant features contributing to the prediction of Q10 classes. The XAI analysis shows that the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration increases with microbiome variables but decreases with non-microbiome variables beyond a threshold. Our findings underscore the critical role of the soil microbiome in predicting soil Q10 dynamics, providing valuable insights for developing targeted climate change mitigation strategies.
Journal Article