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Assessment of mitigation strategies that combat global warming, urban heat islands (UHIs), and urban energy demand can be crucial for urban planners and energy providers, especially for hot, semi-arid urban environments where summertime cooling demands are excessive. Within this context, summertime regional impacts of cool roof and rooftop solar photovoltaic deployment on near-surface air temperature and cooling energy demand are examined for the two major USA cities of Arizona: Phoenix and Tucson. A detailed physics-based parametrization of solar photovoltaic panels is developed and implemented in a multilayer building energy model that is fully coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale numerical model. We conduct a suite of sensitivity experiments (with different coverage rates of cool roof and rooftop solar photovoltaic deployment) for a 10-day clear-sky extreme heat period over the Phoenix and Tucson metropolitan areas at high spatial resolution (1-km horizontal grid spacing). Results show that deployment of cool roofs and rooftop solar photovoltaic panels reduce near-surface air temperature across the diurnal cycle and decrease daily citywide cooling energy demand. During the day, cool roofs are more effective at cooling than rooftop solar photovoltaic systems, but during the night, solar panels are more efficient at reducing the UHI effect. For the maximum coverage rate deployment, cool roofs reduced daily citywide cooling energy demand by 13–14 %, while rooftop solar photovoltaic panels by 8–11 % (without considering the additional savings derived from their electricity production). The results presented here demonstrate that deployment of both roofing technologies have multiple benefits for the urban environment, while solar photovoltaic panels add additional value because they reduce the dependence on fossil fuel consumption for electricity generation.

Regional climates can be modified by urban development affecting the radiation and hydrological balances. This study looks at the expanding megapolitan area in the Sun Corridor, Arizona, USA, and models local climate change in line with urban development. Efforts characterizing the changing climate of southwestern North America by focusing exclusively on the impacts of increasing levels of long-lived greenhouse gases omit fundamental elements with similar order-of-magnitude impacts as those owing to large-scale climate change 1 , 2 . Using a suite of ensemble-based, multiyear simulations, here we show the intensification of observationally based urban-induced phenomena and demonstrate that the direct summer-time climate effects of the most rapidly expanding megapolitan region in the USA—Arizona’s Sun Corridor—are considerable. Although urban-induced warming approaches 4 °C locally for the maximum expansion scenario, impacts depend on the particular trajectory of development. Cool-roof implementation reduces simulated warming by about 50%, yet decreases in summer-time evapotranspiration remain at least as large as those from urban expansion without this mode of adaptation. The contribution of urban-induced warming relative to mid- and end-of-century climate change illustrates strong dependence on built environment expansion scenarios and emissions pathways. Our results highlight the direct climate impacts that result from newly emerging megapolitan regions and their significance for overcoming present challenges concerning sustainable development 3 , 4 .

This research evaluates the climatic summertime representation of the diurnal cycle of near‐surface temperature using the Weather Research and Forecasting System (WRF) over the rapidly urbanizing and water‐vulnerable Phoenix metropolitan area. A suite of monthly, high‐resolution (2 km grid spacing) simulations are conducted during the month of July with both a contemporary landscape and a hypothetical presettlement scenario. WRF demonstrates excellent agreement in the representation of the daily to monthly diurnal cycle of near‐surface temperatures, including the accurate simulation of maximum daytime temperature timing. Thermal sensitivity to anthropogenic land use and land cover change (LULCC), assessed via replacement of the modern‐day landscape with natural shrubland, is small on the regional scale. The WRF‐simulated characterization of the diurnal cycle, supported by previous observational analyses, illustrates two distinct and opposing impacts on the urbanized diurnal cycle of the Phoenix metro area, with evening and nighttime warming partially offset by daytime cooling. The simulated nighttime urban heat island (UHI) over this semiarid urban complex is explained by well‐known mechanisms (slow release of heat from within the urban fabric stored during daytime and increased emission of longwave radiation from the urban canopy toward the surface). During daylight hours, the limited vegetation and dry semidesert region surrounding metro Phoenix warms at greater rates than the urban complex. Although prior work has suggested that daytime temperatures are lower within the urban complex owing to the addition of residential and agricultural irrigation (i.e., “oasis effect”) we show that modification of Phoenix's surrounding environment to a biome more representative of temperate regions eliminates the daytime urban cooling. Our results indicate that surrounding environmental conditions, including land cover and availability of soil moisture, play a principal role in establishing the nature and evolution of the diurnal cycle of near‐surface temperature for the greater Phoenix, Arizona, metropolitan area relative to its rural and undeveloped counterpart. Key Points Characterization of Phoenix urban area diurnal cycle Successful simulation of semiarid urban area oasis effect Impact of urbanization on the diurnal cycle depends on surrounding environment

Conversion of natural to urban land forms imparts influence on local and regional hydroclimate via modification of the surface energy and water balance, and consideration of such effects due to rapidly expanding megapolitan areas is necessary in light of the growing global share of urban inhabitants. Based on a suite of ensemble-based, multi-year simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, we quantify seasonally varying hydroclimatic impacts of the most rapidly expanding megapolitan area in the US: Arizona's Sun Corridor, centered upon the Greater Phoenix metropolitan area. Using a scenario-based urban expansion approach that accounts for the full range of Sun Corridor growth uncertainty through 2050, we show that built environment induced warming for the maximum development scenario is greatest during the summer season (regionally averaged warming over AZ exceeds 1 °C). Warming remains significant during the spring and fall seasons (regionally averaged warming over AZ approaches 0.9 °C during both seasons), and is least during the winter season (regionally averaged warming over AZ of 0.5 °C). Impacts from a minimum expansion scenario are reduced, with regionally averaged warming ranging between 0.1 and 0.3 °C for all seasons except winter, when no warming impacts are diagnosed. Integration of highly reflective cool roofs within the built environment, increasingly recognized as a cost-effective option intended to offset the warming influence of urban complexes, reduces urban-induced warming considerably. However, impacts on the hydrologic cycle are aggravated via enhanced evapotranspiration reduction, leading to a 4% total accumulated precipitation decrease relative to the non-adaptive maximum expansion scenario. Our results highlight potentially unintended consequences of this adaptation approach within rapidly expanding megapolitan areas, and emphasize the need for undeniably sustainable development paths that account for hydrologic impacts in addition to continued focus on mean temperature effects.

Evaluation of built environment energy demand is necessary in light of global projections of urban expansion. Of particular concern are rapidly expanding urban areas in environments where consumption requirements for cooling are excessive. Here, we simulate urban air conditioning (AC) electric consumption for several extreme heat events during summertime over a semiarid metropolitan area with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled to a multilayer building energy scheme. Observed total load values obtained from an electric utility company were split into two parts, one linked to meteorology (i.e., AC consumption) which was compared to WRF simulations, and another to human behavior. WRF-simulated non-dimensional AC consumption profiles compared favorably to diurnal observations in terms of both amplitude and timing. The hourly ratio of AC to total electricity consumption accounted for ∼53% of diurnally averaged total electric demand, ranging from ∼35% during early morning to ∼65% during evening hours. Our work highlights the importance of modeling AC electricity consumption and its role for the sustainable planning of future urban energy needs. Finally, the methodology presented in this article establishes a new energy consumption-modeling framework that can be applied to any urban environment where the use of AC systems is prevalent.

This article explores regional impacts on near-surface air temperature and air conditioning (AC) electricity consumption due to projected urban expansion in a semiarid environment. In addition to the modern-day urban landscape setting, two projected urban expansion scenarios are analyzed with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled to a multilayer building energy scheme. The authors simulate a 10-day extreme heat period at high spatial resolution (1-km horizontal grid spacing) over Arizona, one of the fastest-growing regions in the United States. Results show that replacement of natural land surfaces by buildings and pavement increases the local mean near-surface air temperature considerably. Furthermore, present-day waste heat emission from AC systems increases the mean nighttime 2-m air temperature by up to 1°C in some urban locations, but projected urban development aggravates the situation, increasing nighttime air temperatures by up to 1.5°–1.75°C. The contribution of anthropogenic heating due to AC systems is computed through comparison of two different types of numerical experiments: in one case, a specific urban scenario is simulated with the AC systems turned on and expelling heat into the outdoor environment, and in the second case, the same urban development (with the AC systems turned on) is simulated but with no heat expelled into the outdoor environment. The results demonstrate that projected urban expansion significantly amplifies local cooling energy demands for the Phoenix and Tucson metropolitan regions and therefore highlight the need for sustainable future energy needs to maintain thermal comfort levels.

In this study, WRF-Chem is utilized at high resolution (1.333 km grid spacing for the innermost domain) to investigate impacts of southern California anthropogenic emissions (SoCal) on Phoenix ground-level ozone concentrations ([O3]) for a pair of recent exceedance episodes. First, WRF-Chem control simulations, based on the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) 2005 National Emissions Inventories (NEI05), are conducted to evaluate model performance. Compared with surface observations of hourly ozone, CO, NOX, and wind fields, the control simulations reproduce observed variability well. Simulated [O3] are comparable with the previous studies in this region. Next, the relative contribution of SoCal and Arizona local anthropogenic emissions (AZ) to ozone exceedances within the Phoenix metropolitan area is investigated via a trio of sensitivity simulations: (1) SoCal emissions are excluded, with all other emissions as in Control; (2) AZ emissions are excluded with all other emissions as in Control; and (3) SoCal and AZ emissions are excluded (i.e., all anthropogenic emissions are eliminated) to account only for Biogenic emissions and lateral boundary inflow (BILB). Based on the USEPA NEI05, results for the selected events indicate the impacts of AZ emissions are dominant on daily maximum 8 h average (DMA8) [O3] in Phoenix. SoCal contributions to DMA8 [O3] for the Phoenix metropolitan area range from a few ppbv to over 30 ppbv (10–30 % relative to Control experiments). [O3] from SoCal and AZ emissions exhibit the expected diurnal characteristics that are determined by physical and photochemical processes, while BILB contributions to DMA8 [O3] in Phoenix also play a key role. Finally, ozone transport processes and pathways within the lower troposphere are investigated. During daytime, pollutants (mainly ozone) near the Southern California coasts are pumped into the planetary boundary-layer over the Southern California desert through the mountain chimney and pass channel effects, aiding eastward transport along the desert air basins in southern California and finally, northeastward along the lower Gila River basin in Arizona, thereby affecting Phoenix air quality during subsequent days. This study indicates that local emission controls in Phoenix need to be augmented with regional emission reductions to attain the federal ozone standard, especially if a more stringent standard is adopted in the future.

Large-scale cultivation of perennial bioenergy crops (e.g., miscanthus and switchgrass) offers unique opportunities to mitigate climate change through avoided fossil fuel use and associated greenhouse gas reduction. Although conversion of existing agriculturally intensive lands (e.g., maize and soy) to perennial bioenergy cropping systems has been shown to reduce near-surface temperatures, unintended consequences on natural water resources via depletion of soil moisture may offset these benefits. The hydroclimatic impacts associated with perennial bioenergy crop expansion over the contiguous United States are quantified using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model dynamically coupled to a land surface model (LSM). A suite of continuous (2000–09) medium-range resolution (20-km grid spacing) ensemble-based simulations is conducted using seasonally evolving biophysical representation of perennial bioenergy cropping systems within the LSM based on observational data. Deployment is carried out only over suitable abandoned and degraded farmlands to avoid competition with existing food cropping systems. Results show that near-surface cooling (locally, up to 5°C) is greatest during the growing season over portions of the central United States. For some regions, principal impacts are restricted to a reduction in near-surface temperature (e.g., eastern portions of the United States), whereas for other regions deployment leads to soil moisture reduction in excess of 0.15–0.2m³m−3 during the simulated 10-yr period (e.g., western Great Plains). This reduction (∼25%–30% of available soil moisture) manifests as a progressively decreasing trend over time. The large-scale focus of this research demonstrates the long-term hydroclimatic sustainability of large-scale deployment of perennial bioenergy crops across the continental United States, revealing potential hot spots of suitable deployment and regions to avoid.

A numerical study of mountain waves in the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere (UTLS) is presented for two Intensive Observational Periods (IOPs) of the Terrain-induced Rotor Experiment (T-REX). The simulations use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and a microscale model that is driven by the finest WRF nest. During IOP8, the simulation results reveal presence of perturbations with short wavelengths in zones of strong vertical wind shear in the UTLS that cause a reversal of momentum fluxes. The spectral properties of these perturbations and the attendant vertical profiles of heat and momentum fluxes show strong divergence near the tropopause indicating that they are generated by shear instability along shear lines locally induced by the primary mountain wave originating from the lower troposphere. This is further confirmed by results of an idealized simulation initialized with the temperature and wind profiles obtained from the microscale model. For IOP6, we analyze distributions of O3 and CO observed in aircraft measurements. They show small scale fluctuations with amplitudes and phases that vary along the path of the flight. Detailed comparisons between these fluctuations and the observed vertical velocity show that the behavior of these short fluctuations is due not only to the vertical motion, but also to the local mean vertical gradients where the waves evolve, which are modulated by larger variations. The microscale model simulation results show favorable agreement with in situ radiosonde and aircraft observations. The high vertical resolution offered by the microscale model is found to be critical for resolution of smaller scale processes such as formation of inversion layer associated with trapped lee waves in the troposphere, and propagating mountain waves in the lower stratosphere.

The effects of urbanization on ozone levels have been widely investigated over cities primarily located in temperate and or humid regions. In this study, nested WRF-Chem simulations with a finest grid resolution of 1 km are conducted to investigate ozone concentrations [O3] due to urbanization within cities in arid semi-arid environments. First, a method based on a shape preserving Monotonic Cubic Interpolation (MCI) is developed and used to downscale anthropogenic emissions from the 4 km resolution 2005 National Emissions Inventory (NEI05) to the finest model resolution of 1 km. Using the rapidly expanding Phoenix metropolitan region as the area of focus, we demonstrate the proposed MCI method achieves ozone simulation results with appreciably improved correspondence to observations relative to the default interpolation method of the WRF-Chem system. Next, two additional sets of experiments are conducted, with the recommended MCI approach, to examine impacts of urbanization on ozone production: (1) the urban land cover is included (i.e., urbanization experiments) and, (2) the urban land cover is replaced with the region's native shrubland. Impacts due to the presence of the built environment on [O3] are highly heterogeneous across the metropolitan area. Increased near surface [O3] due to urbanization of 10-20 ppb is predominantly a nighttime phenomenon while simulated impacts during daytime are negligible. Urbanization narrows the daily [O3] range (by virtue of increasing nighttime minima), an impact largely due to the region's urban heat island. Our results demonstrate the importance of the MCI method for accurate representation of the diurnal profile of ozone, and highlight its utility for high-resolution air quality simulations for urban areas.