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We apply climate attribution techniques to sea surface temperature time series from five regional North Pacific ecosystems to track the growth in human influence on ocean temperatures over the past seven decades (1950–2022). Using Bayesian estimates of the Fraction of Attributable Risk (FAR) and Risk Ratio (RR) derived from 23 global climate models, we show that human influence on regional ocean temperatures could first be detected in the 1970s and grew until 2014–2020 temperatures showed overwhelming evidence of human contribution. For the entire North Pacific, FAR and RR values show that temperatures have reached levels that were likely impossible in the preindustrial climate, indicating that the question of attribution is already obsolete at the basin scale. Regional results indicate the strongest evidence for human influence in the northernmost ecosystems (Eastern Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska), though all regions showed FAR values > 0.98 for at least one year. Extreme regional SST values that were expected every 1000–10 000 years in the preindustrial climate are expected every 5–40 years in the current climate. We use the Gulf of Alaska sockeye salmon fishery to show how attribution time series may be used to contextualize the impacts of human-induced ocean warming on ecosystem services. We link negative warming effects on sockeye fishery catches to increasing human influence on regional temperatures (increasing FAR values), and we find that sockeye salmon migrating to sea in years with the strongest evidence for human effects on temperature (FAR ⩾ 0.98) produce catches 1.4 standard deviations below the long-term log mean. Attribution time series may be helpful indicators for better defining the human role in observed climate change impacts, and may thus help researchers, managers, and stakeholders to better understand and plan for the effects of climate change.

Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) stocks throughout the southern part of their North American range have experienced declines in productivity over the past two decades. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that pink (O. gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon stocks have also experienced recent declines in productivity by investigating temporal and spatial trends in productivity of 99 wild North American pink and chum salmon stocks. We used a combination of population dynamics and time series models to quantify individual stock trends as well as common temporal trends in pink and chum salmon productivity across local, regional, and continental spatial scales. Our results indicated widespread declines in productivity of wild chum salmon stocks throughout Washington (WA) and British Columbia (BC) with 81% of stocks showing recent declines in productivity, although the exact form of the trends varied among regions. For pink salmon, the majority of stocks in WA and BC (65%) did not have strong temporal trends in productivity; however, all stocks that did have trends in productivity showed declining productivity since at least brood year 1996. We found weaker evidence of widespread declines in productivity for Alaska pink and chum salmon, with some regions and stocks showing declines in productivity (e.g., Kodiak chum salmon stocks) and others showing increases (e.g., Alaska Peninsula pink salmon stocks). We also found strong positive covariation between stock productivity series at the regional spatial scale for both pink and chum salmon, along with evidence that this regional-scale positive covariation has become stronger since the early 1990s in WA and BC. In general, our results suggest that common processes operating at the regional or multi-regional spatial scales drive productivity of pink and chum salmon stocks in western North America and that the effects of these process on productivity may change over time.

Sustainability—maintaining catches within the historical range of socially and ecologically acceptable values—is key to fisheries success. Climate change may rapidly threaten sustainability, and recognizing these instances is important for effective climate adaptation. Here, we present one approach for evaluating changing sustainability under a changing climate. We use Bayesian regression models to compare fish population processes under historical climate norms and emerging anthropogenic extremes. To define anthropogenic extremes we use the Fraction of Attributable Risk (FAR), which estimates the proportion of risk for extreme ocean temperatures that can be attributed to human influence. We illustrate our approach with estimates of recruitment (production of young fish, a key determinant of sustainability) for two exploited fishes (Pacific cod Gadus macrocephalus and walleye pollock G. chalcogrammus ) in a rapidly warming ecosystem, the Gulf of Alaska. We show that recruitment distributions for both species have shifted towards zero during anthropogenic climate extremes. Predictions based on the projected incidence of anthropogenic temperature extremes indicate that expected recruitment, and therefore fisheries sustainability, is markedly lower in the current climate than during recent decades. Using FAR to analyze changing population processes may help fisheries managers and stakeholders to recognize situations when historical sustainability expectations should be reevaluated.

Changing ecosystem conditions present a challenge for the monitoring and management of living marine resources, where decisions often require lead-times of weeks to months. Consistent improvement in the skill of regional ocean models to predict physical ocean states at seasonal time scales provides opportunities to forecast biological responses to changing ecosystem conditions that impact fishery management practices. In this study, we used 8-month lead-time predictions of temperature at 250 m depth from the J-SCOPE regional ocean model, along with stationary habitat conditions (e.g., distance to shelf break), to forecast Pacific hake (Merluccius productus) distribution in the northern California Current Ecosystem. Using retrospective skill assessments, we found strong agreement between hake distribution forecasts and historical observations. The top performing models (based on out-of-sample skill assessments using the area-under-the-curve (AUC) skill metric) were a generalized additive model (GAM) that included shelf-break distance (i.e., distance to the 200 m isobath) (AUC = 0.813) and a boosted regression tree (BRT) that included temperature at 250 m depth and shelf-break distance (AUC = 0.830). An ensemble forecast of the top performing GAM and BRT models only improved out-of-sample forecast skill slightly (AUC = 0.838) due to strongly correlated forecast errors between models (r = 0.88). Collectively, our results demonstrate that seasonal lead-time ocean predictions have predictive skill for important ecological processes in the northern California Current Ecosystem and can be used to provide early detection of impending distribution shifts of ecologically and economically important marine species.

Environmental conditions can have spatially complex effects on the dynamics of marine fish stocks that change across life-history stages. Yet the potential for non-stationary environmental effects across multiple dimensions, e.g. space and ontogeny, are rarely considered. In this study, we examined the evidence for spatial and ontogenetic non-stationary temperature effects on Pacific hake Merluccius productus biomass along the west coast of North America. Specifically, we used Bayesian additive models to estimate the effects of temperature on Pacific hake biomass distribution and whether the effects change across space or life-history stage. We found latitudinal differences in the effects of temperature on mature Pacific hake distribution (i.e. age 3 and older); warmer than average subsurface temperatures were associated with higher biomass north of Vancouver Island, but lower biomass offshore of Washington and southern Vancouver Island. In contrast, immature Pacific hake distribution (i.e. age 2) was better explained by a nonlinear temperature effect; cooler than average temperatures were associated with higher biomass coastwide. Together, our results suggest that Pacific hake distribution is driven by interactions between age composition and environmental conditions and highlight the importance of accounting for varying environmental effects across multiple dimensions.

The abrupt collapse of the Bering Sea snow crab stock can be explained by rapid borealization that is >98% likely to have been human induced. Strongly boreal conditions are ~200 times more likely now (at 1.0–1.5 °C of warming) than in the pre-industrial climate, while strongly Arctic conditions are now expected in only 8% of years. Stakeholders should accelerate adaptation planning for the complete loss of Arctic characteristics in traditional fishing grounds.The authors link a recent collapse of a commercially valuable snow crab stock to borealization of the Bering Sea that is >98% likely to have been human induced.

Understanding the drivers of mortality during critical life history periods is an important part of increasing our capacity to rebuild depressed salmonid populations. For threatened steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss in Puget Sound, Washington, early marine predation has been implicated as a key source of mortality. Yet, the agents that mediate predation pressure are poorly understood. In this study, we characterize abundances of juvenile Coho Salmon O. kisutch and Chinook Salmon O. tshawytscha in Puget Sound and relate these abundance patterns to weekly steelhead survival to better understand whether pulses of hatchery‐released salmonids mediate steelhead survival. We found that weekly abundances of hatchery Coho Salmon and Chinook Salmon smolts vary by several orders of magnitude across weeks, indicating that large resource pulses are available to salmonid predators. We further found that weekly steelhead survival was significantly negatively related to abundances of hatchery‐released Coho Salmon but not Chinook Salmon, which had considerably smaller body sizes than both Coho Salmon and steelhead smolts. Together, our results suggest that releases of Coho Salmon into Puget Sound mediate mortality of steelhead smolts, possibly via increased predation pressure by shared predators.

The abundance of anadromous salmon is partially determined by size-selective mortality during the early marine life phase. Consequently, identifying the growth patterns of juvenile salmon during this life phase is important in understanding the dynamics of salmon populations. We examined patterns of early marine growth in juvenile pink salmon Oncorhynchus gorbuscha released by four hatcheries in Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska, and explored how these patterns related to marine survival. Since larger individuals are thought to experience reduced mortality, we partitioned the data into weight-based quartiles and compared growth rates (% body weight/d) of all fish, the largest fish (top 25%), and the smallest fish (bottom 25%). Sampling occurred during summer 1997–2004 in PWS, the inshore Gulf of Alaska (GOA), and the offshore GOA. Growth rates varied significantly among years and sampling locations; however, the growth rate patterns were markedly similar among size-groups and hatcheries. Growth rates tended to be high in 1997, 2002, and 2004 and lower in 1998, 2001, and 2003. Fish sampled in the offshore GOA typically had faster growth rates than those sampled elsewhere, although this was less pronounced for the largest fish. For all size-groups, the relationship between survival and growth rate was strongest for fish captured in the offshore GOA and weakest for those captured in PWS, indicating that the likelihood of survival is greater for juveniles that migrate offshore earlier. The strength of the growth rate—survival relationship for pink salmon captured in the offshore GOA was similar among all size-groups, suggesting that once fish migrate offshore they are less vulnerable to size-selective predation.

The abundance of anadromous salmon is partially determined by size-selective mortality during the early marine life phase. Consequently, identifying the growth patterns of juvenile salmon during this life phase is important in understanding the dynamics of salmon populations. We examined patterns of early marine growth in juvenile pink salmon Oncorhynchus gorbuscha released by four hatcheries in Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska, and explored how these patterns related to marine survival. Since larger individuals are thought to experience reduced mortality, we partitioned the data into weight-based quartiles and compared growth rates (% body weight/d) of all fish, the largest fish (top 25%), and the smallest fish (bottom 25%). Sampling occurred during summer 1997-2004 in PWS, the inshore Gulf of Alaska (GOA), and the offshore GOA. Growth rates varied significantly among years and sampling locations; however, the growth rate patterns were markedly similar among size-groups and hatcheries. Growth rates tended to be high in 1997, 2002, and 2004 and lower in 1998, 2001, and 2003. Fish sampled in the offshore GOA typically had faster growth rates than those sampled elsewhere, although this was less pronounced for the largest fish. For all size-groups, the relationship between survival and growth rate was strongest for fish captured in the offshore GOA and weakest for those captured in PWS, indicating that the likelihood of survival is greater for juveniles that migrate offshore earlier. The strength of the growth rate-survival relationship for pink salmon captured in the offshore GOA was similar among all size-groups, suggesting that once fish migrate offshore they are less vulnerable to size-selective predation.

To tackle the complexity of cross-reactive and pathogen-specific T cell responses against related Salmonella serovars, we used mass cytometry, unbiased single-cell cloning, live fluorescence barcoding, and T cell–receptor sequencing to reconstruct the Salmonella -specific repertoire of circulating effector CD4 + T cells, isolated from volunteers challenged with Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi ( S . Typhi) or Salmonella Paratyphi A ( S . Paratyphi). We describe the expansion of cross-reactive responses against distantly related Salmonella serovars and of clonotypes recognizing immunodominant antigens uniquely expressed by S . Typhi or S . Paratyphi A. In addition, single–amino acid variations in two immunodominant proteins, CdtB and PhoN, lead to the accumulation of T cells that do not cross-react against the different serovars, thus demonstrating how minor sequence variations in a complex microorganism shape the pathogen-specific T cell repertoire. Our results identify immune-dominant, serovar-specific, and cross-reactive T cell antigens, which should aid in the design of T cell–vaccination strategies against Salmonella . Typhoidal Salmonella is a major pathogen, but there is still a lack of knowledge about suitable vaccine antigens. Cerundolo and colleagues deep-phenotype bacteria-specific CD4 + T cells of Salmonella -infected volunteers to define cross-reactive and serovar-specific responses.