Explore the vast range of titles available.

•We present a warped Bayesian Linear Regression (BLR) and demonstrate it on data from the UK Biobank.•The non-linearity of the model improves the fit and out of sample predictions for most variables.•Non-Gaussianity of the data can be included with the incorporation of the likelihood warping.•A trade-off between fit and complexity can be chosen optimally, without crossvalidation.•BLR is computationally less demanding than GPR and is therefore scalable to big datasets. Normative modelling is becoming more popular in neuroimaging due to its ability to make predictions of deviation from a normal trajectory at the level of individual participants. It allows the user to model the distribution of several neuroimaging modalities, giving an estimation for the mean and centiles of variation. With the increase in the availability of big data in neuroimaging, there is a need to scale normative modelling to big data sets. However, the scaling of normative models has come with several challenges. So far, most normative modelling approaches used Gaussian process regression, and although suitable for smaller datasets (up to a few thousand participants) it does not scale well to the large cohorts currently available and being acquired. Furthermore, most neuroimaging modelling methods that are available assume the predictive distribution to be Gaussian in shape. However, deviations from Gaussianity can be frequently found, which may lead to incorrect inferences, particularly in the outer centiles of the distribution. In normative modelling, we use the centiles to give an estimation of the deviation of a particular participant from the ‘normal’ trend. Therefore, especially in normative modelling, the correct estimation of the outer centiles is of utmost importance, which is also where data are sparsest. Here, we present a novel framework based on Bayesian linear regression with likelihood warping that allows us to address these problems, that is, to correctly model non-Gaussian predictive distributions and scale normative modelling elegantly to big data cohorts. In addition, this method provides likelihood-based statistics, which are useful for model selection. To evaluate this framework, we use a range of neuroimaging-derived measures from the UK Biobank study, including image-derived phenotypes (IDPs) and whole-brain voxel-wise measures derived from diffusion tensor imaging. We show good computational scaling and improved accuracy of the warped BLR for certain IDPs and voxels if there was a deviation from normality of these parameters in their residuals. The present results indicate the advantage of a warped BLR in terms of; computational scalability and the flexibility to incorporate non-linearity and non-Gaussianity of the data, giving a wider range of neuroimaging datasets that can be correctly modelled.

In this work, we expand the normative model repository introduced in Rutherford et al., 2022a to include normative models charting lifespan trajectories of structural surface area and brain functional connectivity, measured using two unique resting-state network atlases (Yeo-17 and Smith-10), and an updated online platform for transferring these models to new data sources. We showcase the value of these models with a head-to-head comparison between the features output by normative modeling and raw data features in several benchmarking tasks: mass univariate group difference testing (schizophrenia versus control), classification (schizophrenia versus control), and regression (predicting general cognitive ability). Across all benchmarks, we show the advantage of using normative modeling features, with the strongest statistically significant results demonstrated in the group difference testing and classification tasks. We intend for these accessible resources to facilitate the wider adoption of normative modeling across the neuroimaging community.

Environmental experiences play a critical role in shaping the structure and function of the brain. Its plasticity in response to different external stimuli has been the focus of research efforts for decades. In this review, we explore the effects of adversity on brain’s structure and function and its implications for brain development, adaptation, and the emergence of mental health disorders. We are focusing on adverse events that emerge from the immediate surroundings of an individual, i.e., microenvironment. They include childhood maltreatment, peer victimisation, social isolation, affective loss, domestic conflict, and poverty. We also take into consideration exposure to environmental toxins. Converging evidence suggests that different types of adversity may share common underlying mechanisms while also exhibiting unique pathways. However, they are often studied in isolation, limiting our understanding of their combined effects and the interconnected nature of their impact. The integration of large, deep-phenotyping datasets and collaborative efforts can provide sufficient power to analyse high dimensional environmental profiles and advance the systematic mapping of neuronal mechanisms. This review provides a background for future research, highlighting the importance of understanding the cumulative impact of various adversities, through data-driven approaches and integrative multimodal analysis techniques.

The substantial individual heterogeneity that characterizes people with mental illness is often ignored by classical case–control research, which relies on group mean comparisons. Here we present a comprehensive, multiscale characterization of the heterogeneity of gray matter volume (GMV) differences in 1,294 cases diagnosed with one of six conditions (attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, autism spectrum disorder, bipolar disorder, depression, obsessive–compulsive disorder and schizophrenia) and 1,465 matched controls. Normative models indicated that person-specific deviations from population expectations for regional GMV were highly heterogeneous, affecting the same area in <7% of people with the same diagnosis. However, these deviations were embedded within common functional circuits and networks in up to 56% of cases. The salience–ventral attention system was implicated transdiagnostically, with other systems selectively involved in depression, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder. Phenotypic differences between cases assigned the same diagnosis may thus arise from the heterogeneous localization of specific regional deviations, whereas phenotypic similarities may be attributable to the dysfunction of common functional circuits and networks. A new brain mapping approach tailored to individual people reveals that volume changes in psychiatric illness occur in highly variable locations across individuals, but that these differences often aggregate within common brain systems.

Clinical neuroimaging data availability has grown substantially in the last decade, providing the potential for studying heterogeneity in clinical cohorts on a previously unprecedented scale. Normative modeling is an emerging statistical tool for dissecting heterogeneity in complex brain disorders. However, its application remains technically challenging due to medical data privacy issues and difficulties in dealing with nuisance variation, such as the variability in the image acquisition process. Here, we approach the problem of estimating a reference normative model across a massive population using a massive multi-center neuroimaging dataset. To this end, we introduce a federated probabilistic framework using hierarchical Bayesian regression (HBR) to complete the life-cycle of normative modeling. The proposed model provides the possibilities to learn, update, and adapt the model parameters on decentralized neuroimaging data. Our experimental results confirm the superiority of HBR in deriving more accurate normative ranges on large multi-site neuroimaging datasets compared to the current standard methods. In addition, our approach provides the possibility to recalibrate and reuse the learned model on local datasets and even on datasets with very small sample sizes. The proposed method will facilitate applications of normative modeling as a medical tool for screening the biological deviations in individuals affected by complex illnesses such as mental disorders.

•Brain age CNNs achieve state-of-the-art performance in a large, multisite dataset.•A regression-based architecture outperform others in generalizing to new scanners.•Deviations in brain age associate with plausible biological and lifestyle variables.•Encoded representations are better predictors for disorder than the brain age delta. The discrepancy between chronological age and the apparent age of the brain based on neuroimaging data — the brain age delta — has emerged as a reliable marker of brain health. With an increasing wealth of data, approaches to tackle heterogeneity in data acquisition are vital. To this end, we compiled raw structural magnetic resonance images into one of the largest and most diverse datasets assembled (n=53542), and trained convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to predict age. We achieved state-of-the-art performance on unseen data from unknown scanners (n=2553), and showed that higher brain age delta is associated with diabetes, alcohol intake and smoking. Using transfer learning, the intermediate representations learned by our model complemented and partly outperformed brain age delta in predicting common brain disorders. Our work shows we can achieve generalizable and biologically plausible brain age predictions using CNNs trained on heterogeneous datasets, and transfer them to clinical use cases.

In the past, the cerebellum has been best known for its crucial role in motor function. However, increasingly more findings highlight the importance of cerebellar contributions in cognitive functions and neurodevelopment. Using a total of 7240 neuroimaging scans from 4862 individuals, we describe and provide detailed, openly available models of cerebellar development in childhood and adolescence (age range: 6–17 years), an important time period for brain development and onset of neuropsychiatric disorders. Next to a traditionally used anatomical parcellation of the cerebellum, we generated growth models based on a recently proposed functional parcellation. In both, we find an anterior-posterior growth gradient mirroring the age-related improvements of underlying behavior and function, which is analogous to cerebral maturation patterns and offers evidence for directly related cerebello-cortical developmental trajectories. Finally, we illustrate how the current approach can be used to detect cerebellar abnormalities in clinical samples. The development of the human cerebellum is not well understood. Here, the authors analyse a large sample of neuroimaging scans from children and adolescents to develop growth models of the cerebellum which mirror age-related developmental trajectories of behaviour and function.

Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a neurodegenerative disorder with motor symptoms (e.g., bradykinesia, tremors) and non-motor symptoms (e.g., cognitive deficits). Symptom progression varies across individuals, possibly due to differences in the spread of disease pathology. This study investigates individual-level gray matter atrophy in PD patients compared to a reference cohort, modeling neurobiological trajectories to understand symptom progression. Using normative modeling, we mapped individual deviations in gray matter atrophy in PD patients (Personalized Parkinson Project, PPP; N = 408; 42% female) against a reference model (N = 58, 836) of non-diagnosed individuals. Gray matter atrophy was defined as negative deviations from the normative model in cortical thickness and subcortical volume at baseline and two-year follow-up. We correlated the deviations with clinical motor and cognitive symptoms at an individual level and compared changes across PD subtypes (mild-motor predominant, intermediate, and diffuse-malignant). Cross-sectionally, PD patients showed significant gray matter atrophy, which correlated with cognitive impairment. Longitudinally, cortical thinning and subcortical atrophy patterns showed variation amongst subtypes. Specifically, the diffuse-malignant subtype, which is characterized by more diffuse symptoms and faster clinical progression, exhibited pronounced cortical thinning and subcortical atrophy over time. In this paper, we have considered the deviation scores at three levels of granularity: cases vs. control, subtypes, and the individual level. While our findings show subgroup-level patterns of variability, they also provide a method for exploring individual-level metrics of disease progression, acknowledging that individuals may deviate from the predefined categories or groups and can exhibit large variability over time.

Many variables have been linked to different course trajectories of depression. These findings, however, are based on group comparisons with unknown translational value. This study evaluated the prognostic value of a wide range of clinical, psychological, and biological characteristics for predicting the course of depression and aimed to identify the best set of predictors. Eight hundred four unipolar depressed patients (major depressive disorder or dysthymia) patients were assessed on a set involving 81 demographic, clinical, psychological, and biological measures and were clinically followed-up for 2 years. Subjects were grouped according to (i) the presence of a depression diagnosis at 2-year follow-up (yes n = 397, no n = 407), and (ii) three disease course trajectory groups (rapid remission, n = 356, gradual improvement n = 273, and chronic n = 175) identified by a latent class growth analysis. A penalized logistic regression, followed by tight control over type I error, was used to predict depression course and to evaluate the prognostic value of individual variables. Based on the inventory of depressive symptomatology (IDS), we could predict a rapid remission course of depression with an AUROC of 0.69 and 62% accuracy, and the presence of an MDD diagnosis at follow-up with an AUROC of 0.66 and 66% accuracy. Other clinical, psychological, or biological variables did not significantly improve the prediction. Among the large set of variables considered, only the IDS provided predictive value for course prediction on an individual level, although this analysis represents only one possible methodological approach. However, accuracy of course prediction was moderate at best and further improvement is required for these findings to be clinically useful.

Longitudinal neuroimaging studies offer valuable insight into brain development, ageing, and disease progression over time. However, prevailing analytical approaches rooted in our understanding of population variation are primarily tailored for cross-sectional studies. To fully leverage the potential of longitudinal neuroimaging, we need methodologies that account for the complex interplay between population variation and individual dynamics. We extend the normative modelling framework, which evaluates an individual’s position relative to population standards, to assess an individual’s longitudinal change compared to the population’s standard dynamics. Using normative models pre-trained on over 58,000 individuals, we introduce a quantitative metric termed ‘ z-diff ’ score, which quantifies a temporal change in individuals compared to a population standard. This approach offers advantages in flexibility in dataset size and ease of implementation. We applied this framework to a longitudinal dataset of 98 patients with early-stage schizophrenia who underwent MRI examinations shortly after diagnosis and 1 year later. Compared to cross-sectional analyses, showing global thinning of grey matter at the first visit, our method revealed a significant normalisation of grey matter thickness in the frontal lobe over time—an effect undetected by traditional longitudinal methods. Overall, our framework presents a flexible and effective methodology for analysing longitudinal neuroimaging data, providing insights into the progression of a disease that would otherwise be missed when using more traditional approaches.