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Background There is increasing interest in the capacity of adaptive designs to improve the efficiency of clinical trials. However, relatively little work has investigated how economic considerations – including the costs of the trial – might inform the design and conduct of adaptive clinical trials. Methods We apply a recently published Bayesian model of a value-based sequential clinical trial to data from the ‘Hydroxychloroquine Effectiveness in Reducing symptoms of hand Osteoarthritis’ (HERO) trial. Using parameters estimated from the trial data, including the cost of running the trial, and using multiple imputation to estimate the accumulating cost-effectiveness signal in the presence of missing data, we assess when the trial would have stopped had the value-based model been used. We used re-sampling methods to compare the design’s operating characteristics with those of a conventional fixed length design. Results In contrast to the findings of the only other published retrospective application of this model, the equivocal nature of the cost-effectiveness signal from the HERO trial means that the design would have stopped the trial close to, or at, its maximum planned sample size, with limited additional value delivered via savings in research expenditure. Conclusion Evidence from the two retrospective applications of this design suggests that, when the cost-effectiveness signal in a clinical trial is unambiguous, the Bayesian value-adaptive design can stop the trial before it reaches its maximum sample size, potentially saving research costs when compared with the alternative fixed sample size design. However, when the cost-effectiveness signal is equivocal, the design is expected to run to, or close to, the maximum sample size and deliver limited savings in research costs.

Background: Monetary and other incentives may increase recruitment to randomised controlled trials. Methods: 2x2 factorial 'study within a trial' of including a pen and/or £5 (GBP) in cash with a postal recruitment pack to increase the number of participants randomised into the host trial ('Gentle Years Yoga') for older adults with multimorbidity. Secondary outcomes: return, and time to return, of screening form, and the cost per additional participant randomised. Binary data were analysed using logistic regression and time to return using Cox proportional hazards regression.  Results: 818 potential host trial participants were included. Between those sent a pen (n=409) and not sent a pen (n=409), there was no evidence of a difference in the proportion of participants randomised (15 (3.7%) versus 11 (2.7%); OR 1.38, 95% CI 0.63-3.04), in returning a screening form (66 (16.1%) versus 61 (14.9%); OR 1.10, 95% CI 0.75-1.61) nor in time to return the screening form (HR 1.09, 95% CI 0.77-1.55). Between those sent £5 (n=409) and not sent £5 (n=409), there was no evidence of increased randomisation (14 (3.4%) versus 12 (2.9%); OR 1.18, 95% CI 0.54-2.57), but more screening forms were returned (77 (18.8%) versus 50 (12.2%); OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.13-2.45) and there was decreased time to return screening form (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.09-2.22). No significant interaction between the interventions was observed. The cost per additional participant randomised was £32 and £1000 for the pen and £5, respectively. Conclusion: A small, monetary incentive did not result in more participants being randomised into the host trial but did encourage increased and faster response to the recruitment invitation. Since it is relatively costly, we do not recommend this intervention for use to increase recruitment in this population. Pens were cheaper but did not provide evidence of benefit.

Many countries now offer support to teenage mothers to help them to achieve long-term socioeconomic stability and to give a successful start to their children. The Family Nurse Partnership (FNP) is a licensed intensive home-visiting intervention developed in the USA and introduced into practice in England that involves up to 64 structured home visits from early pregnancy until the child's second birthday by specially recruited and trained family nurses. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of giving the programme to teenage first-time mothers on infant and maternal outcomes up to 24 months after birth. We did a pragmatic, non-blinded, randomised controlled, parallel-group trial in community midwifery settings at 18 partnerships between local authorities and primary and secondary care organisations in England. Eligible participants were nulliparous and aged 19 years or younger, and were recruited at less than 25 weeks' gestation. Field-based researchers randomly allocated mothers (1:1) via remote randomisation (telephone and web) to FNP plus usual care (publicly funded health and social care) or to usual care alone. Allocation was stratified by site and minimised by gestation (<16 weeks vs ≥16 weeks), smoking status (yes vs no), and preferred language of data collection (English vs non-English). Mothers and assessors (local researchers at baseline and 24 months' follow-up) were not masked to group allocation, but telephone interviewers were blinded. Primary endpoints were biomarker-calibrated self-reported tobacco use by the mother at late pregnancy, birthweight of the baby, the proportion of women with a second pregnancy within 24 months post-partum, and emergency attendances and hospital admissions for the child within 24 months post-partum. Analyses were by intention to treat. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, number ISRCTN23019866. Between June 16, 2009, and July 28, 2010, we screened 3251 women. After enrolment, 823 women were randomly assigned to receive FNP and 822 to usual care. All follow-up data were retrieved by April 25, 2014. 304 (56%) of 547 women assigned to FNP and 306 (56%) of 545 assigned to usual care smoked at late pregnancy (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 0·90, 97·5% CI 0·64–1·28). Mean birthweight of 742 babies with mothers assigned to FNP was 3217·4 g (SD 618·0), whereas birthweight of 768 babies assigned to usual care was 3197·5 g (SD 581·5; adjusted mean difference 20·75 g, 97·5% CI −47·73 to 89·23. 587 (81%) of 725 assessed children with mothers assigned to FNP and 577 (77%) of 753 assessed children assigned to usual care attended an emergency department or were admitted to hospital at least once before their second birthday (AOR 1·32, 97·5% CI 0·99–1·76). 426 (66%) of 643 assessed women assigned to FNP and 427 (66%) 646 assigned to usual care had a second pregnancy within 2 years (AOR 1·01, 0·77–1·33). At least one serious adverse event (mainly clinical events associated with pregnancy and infancy period) was reported for 310 (38%) of 808 participants (mother–child) in the usual care group and 357 (44%) of 810 in the FNP group, none of which were considered related to the intervention. Adding FNP to the usually provided health and social care provided no additional short-term benefit to our primary outcomes. Programme continuation is not justified on the basis of available evidence, but could be reconsidered should supportive longer-term evidence emerge. Department of Health Policy Research Programme.

Surgical wound healing by secondary intention (SWHSI) presents a substantial management and financial challenge. Negative pressure wound therapy (NPWT) has increasingly been used as a treatment despite an absence of comparative evidence of effectiveness. We evaluated the effectiveness of NPWT compared with usual care for improving time to wound healing in patients with an SWHSI. We did a pragmatic, open-label, multicentre, parallel-group, randomised controlled trial in 29 UK National Health Service Trusts. Participants aged 16 years or older with an SWHSI appropriate for both study treatments (NPWT or usual care) were randomly assigned (1:1) by a centralised web-based system. Randomisation was stratified by wound location, wound area, and study centre. Participants were followed up for 12 months. Participants and clinical and research teams could not be masked to treatment. Assessors masked to treatment reviewed wound photography to verify the outcome. The primary outcome was time to wound healing (days from randomisation to complete epithelial cover), analysed via intention to treat using Kaplan–Meier survival curves and a proportional hazards Cox regression model. The trial was registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN26277546. Between May 15, 2019, and Jan 13, 2023, 686 participants with an SWHSI were randomly assigned to receive NPWT (n=349) or usual care (n=337). All participants were included in the primary analysis. Most participants were diabetic (n=549, 80·0%) and had a single SWHSI (n=622, 90·7%), located on the foot or leg (n=620, 90·4%), arising after vascular surgery (n=619, 90·2%). There was no clear evidence that NPWT reduced the time to wound healing compared with usual care (hazard ratio 1·08 [95% CI 0·88–1·32], p=0·47). There were 448 adverse events, of which 14 were serious (nine participants in the NPWT group and five participants in the usual care group); 124 were deemed potentially related to treatment. NPWT was found not to be cost-effective compared with usual care. In patients with a lower limb SWHSI, including those with complications of diabetes, there is no clear evidence that NPWT reduced the time to wound healing compared with standard dressings. These findings do not support the use of NPWT to augment SWHSI healing. National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

Introduction Falls and fall-related injuries are a serious cause of morbidity and cost to society. Foot problems and inappropriate footwear may increase the risk of falls; therefore podiatric interventions may play a role in reducing falls. Two Cochrane systematic reviews identified only one study of a podiatry intervention aimed to reduce falls, which was undertaken in Australia. The REFORM trial aims to evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of a multifaceted podiatry intervention in reducing falls in people aged 65 years and over in a UK and Irish setting. Methods and analysis This multicentre, cohort randomised controlled trial will recruit 2600 participants from routine podiatry clinics in the UK and Ireland to the REFORM cohort. In order to detect a 10% point reduction in falls from 50% to 40%, with 80% power 890 participants will be randomised to receive routine podiatry care and a falls prevention leaflet or routine podiatry care, a falls prevention leaflet and a multifaceted podiatry intervention. The primary outcome is rate of falls (falls/person/time) over 12 months assessed by patient self-report falls diary. Secondary self-report outcome measures include: the proportion of single and multiple fallers and time to first fall over a 12-month period; Short Falls Efficacy Scale—International; fear of falling in the past 4 weeks; Frenchay Activities Index; fracture rate; Geriatric Depression Scale; EuroQoL-five dimensional scale 3-L; health service utilisation at 6 and 12 months. A qualitative study will examine the acceptability of the package of care to participants and podiatrists. Ethics and dissemination The trial has received a favourable opinion from the East of England—Cambridge East Research Ethics Committee and Galway Research Ethics Committee. The trial results will be published in peer-reviewed journals and at conference presentations. Trial registration number Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN68240461assigned 01/07/2011.

Background The majority of surgical wounds are closed (for example with sutures or staples) and so heal by primary intention. Where closure is not possible, or the wound subsequently breaks down, wounds may be left to heal from the bottom up (healing by secondary intention). Surgical wound healing by secondary intention (SWHSI) frequently presents a significant management challenge. Additional treatments are often required during the course of healing, and thus a significant financial burden is associated with treating these wounds. Increasingly, negative pressure wound therapy (NPWT) is used in the management of SWHSI. This wound dressing system provides a negative pressure (vacuum) to the wound, removing fluid into a canister, which is believed to be conducive to wound healing. Despite the increasing use of NPWT, there is limited robust evidence for the effectiveness of this device. A well-designed and conducted randomised controlled trial is now required to ascertain if NPWT is a clinically and cost-effective treatment for SWHSI. Methods SWHSI-2 is a pragmatic, multi-centre, cross surgical specialty, two arm, parallel group, randomised controlled superiority trial. Adult patients with a SWHSI will be randomised to receive either NPWT or usual care (no NPWT) and will be followed up for 12 months. The primary outcome will be time to healing (defined as full epithelial cover in absence of a scab) in number of days since randomisation. Secondary outcomes will include key clinical events (hospital admission or discharge, treatment status, reoperation, amputation, antibiotic use and death), wound infection, wound pain, health-related quality of life, health utility and resource use. Discussion Given the increasing use of NPWT, despite limited high-quality supporting evidence, the SWHSI-2 Trial will provide robust evidence on the clinical and cost-effectiveness of NPWT in the management of SWHSI. The SWHSI-2 Trial opened to recruitment in May 2019 and is currently recruiting across 20 participating centres. Trial registration ISRCTN 26277546 . Prospectively registered on 25 March 2019

Background Most people referred to rapid access chest pain clinics have non-cardiac chest pain, and in those diagnosed with stable coronary heart disease, guidance recommends that first-line treatment is usually medication rather than revascularisation. Consequently, many patients are not reassured they have the correct diagnosis or treatment. A previous trial reported that, in people with non-cardiac chest pain, a brief discussion with a health psychologist before the tests about the meaning of potential results led to people being significantly more reassured. The aim of this pilot was to test study procedures and inform sample size for a future multi-centre trial and to gain initial estimates of effectiveness of the discussion intervention. Methods This was a two-arm pilot randomised controlled trial in outpatient rapid access chest pain clinic in 120 people undergoing investigation for new onset, non-urgent chest pain. Eligible participants were randomised to receive either: a discussion about the meaning and implication of test results, delivered by a nurse before tests in clinic, plus a pre-test pamphlet covering the same information (Discussion arm) or the pre-test pamphlet alone (Pamphlet arm). Main outcome measures were recruitment rate and feasibility for a future multi-centre trial, with an estimate of reassurance in the groups at month 1 and 6 using a 5-item patient-reported scale. Results Two hundred and seventy people attended rapid access chest pain clinic during recruitment and 120/270 participants (44%) were randomised, 60 to each arm. There was no evidence of a difference between the Discussion and Pamphlet arms in the mean reassurance score at month 1 (34.2 vs 33.7) or at month 6 (35.3 vs 35.9). Patient-reported chest pain and use of heart medications were also similar between the two arms. Conclusions A larger trial of the discussion intervention in the UK would not be warranted. Patients reported high levels of reassurance which were similar in patients receiving the discussion with a nurse and in those receiving a pamphlet alone. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN60618114 (assigned 27.05.2011).

To assess whether case finding for depression among people aged 65 and above improves mental health. Opportunistic evaluation using a regression discontinuity analysis with data from a randomised controlled trial. The REFORM trial, a falls prevention study that recruited patients from NHS podiatry clinics. 1010 community-dwelling adults over the age of 65 with at least one risk factor for falling (recent previous fall or fear of falling). Letter sent to patient's General Practitioner if they scored 10 points or above on the 15-item Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15) informing them of the patient's risk of depression. GDS-15 score six months after initial completion of GDS-15. 895 (88.6%) of the 1010 participants randomised into REFORM had a valid baseline and six-month GDS-15 score and were included in this study. The mean GDS-15 baseline score was 3.5 (SD 3.0, median 3.0, range 0-15); 639 (71.4%) scored 0-4, 204 (22.8%) scored 5-9 indicating mild depression, and 52 (5.8%) scored 10 or higher indicating severe depression. At six months follow-up, those scoring 10 points or higher at baseline had, on average, a reduction of 1.08 points on the GDS-15 scale (95% confidence interval -1.83 to -0.33, p = 0.005) compared to those scoring less than 10, using the simplest linear regression model. Case finding of depression in podiatry patients based on a GDS-15 score of 10 or more followed by a letter to their General Practitioner significantly reduced depression severity. Whether this applies to all older patients in primary care is unknown. Further research is required to confirm these findings. Regression discontinuity analyses could be prespecified and embedded within other existing research studies.

Background Randomised controlled trials are the most rigorous way of investigating the effectiveness of intervention(s) in healthcare settings. During their conduct, trials often run into challenges which if not overcome can lead to significant research waste. Inclusion of a pilot phase provides a way to evaluate elements such as recruitment rate, site set-up and participant follow-up and to address any difficulties early in the trial. The number of trials including a pilot phase is increasing; however, findings are rarely shared in detail, meaning relevant information and learning may not benefit the wider research community. We aimed to report the learning from the SWHSI-2 internal pilot phase, to inform internal pilot trial design and conduct and to also share the subsequent learnings from the main trial phase. Methods The design and outcomes of the 6-month internal pilot phase were embedded within the surgical wounds healing by secondary intention trial. The internal pilot phase assessed site set-up, participant randomisation, intervention delivery and follow-up rates using a pre-specified grading. Details of the impact of the pilot phase on, and subsequent changes to, the main trial phase are also presented. We highlighted the challenges faced during the study and detail strategies that were included to minimise or mitigate these. Results The trial achieved satisfactory site set-up and intervention delivery levels; however, recruitment and follow-up rates were lower than anticipated. Approval was received from the funder to proceed to the main trial. Following the pilot phase, and continually during the main trial phase, processes and documentation were reviewed, revised and evaluated to mitigate challenges observed in relation to site engagement, participant recruitment and outcome data collection. Conclusion Inclusion of an internal pilot enabled early identification of recruitment and retention challenges with a comprehensive suite of interventions subsequently introduced to mitigate these. There was a successful main trial. The findings from this pilot phase add to the evidence base on the design and evaluation of internal pilot phases of a RCT. Future studies including an internal pilot phase should be encouraged to report their experiences for the benefit of others. Trial registration ISRCTN26277546. Prospectively registered 25 March 2019, https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN26277546

Background: Monetary and other incentives may increase recruitment to randomised controlled trials. Methods: This was a 2x2 factorial 'study within a trial' of including a pen and/or £5 with a postal recruitment pack to improve randomisation rate (primary outcome) into the host Gentle Years Yoga trial in older adults with multimorbidity. Secondary outcomes: return, and time to return, of screening form, and the cost per additional participant recruited. Binary data were analysed using logistic regression and time to return data using Cox proportional hazards regression.  Results: 818 potential host trial participants included. Between those sent a pen (n=409) and not sent a pen (n=409), there was no evidence of a difference in the likelihood of being randomised (15 (3.7%) versus 11 (2.7%); OR 1.38, 95% CI 0.63-3.04), in returning a screening form (66 (16.1%) versus 61 (14.9%); OR 1.10, 95% CI 0.75-1.61) nor in time to return the screening form (HR 1.09, 95% CI 0.77-1.55). There was evidence of improved screening return rates (77 (18.8%) versus 50 (12.2%); OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.13-2.45) and time to return screening form (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.09-2.22) but not randomisation (14 (3.4%) versus 12 (2.9%); OR 1.18, 95% CI 0.54-2.57) in those sent £5 (n=409) compared with those not sent £5 (n=409). No significant interaction effects between the interventions were observed. The cost per additional participant recruited was £32 for the pen and £1000 for the £5 incentive. Conclusion: Including a small, monetary incentive encouraged increased and faster response to the recruitment invitation but did not result in more participants being randomised into the host trial. Since it is relatively costly, we do not recommend this intervention for use to increase recruitment in this population. Pens are cheaper but did not provide evidence of benefit. Further studies may be required.