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206 result(s) for "Masashi Hayakawa"
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Review of Subionospheric VLF/LF Radio Signals for the Study of Seismogenic Lower-Ionospheric Perturbations
It has recently been recognized that the ionosphere is highly sensitive to pre-seismic effects, and the detection of ionospheric perturbations associated with earthquakes (EQs) is one of the most promising candidates for short-term EQ prediction. In this review, we focus on a possible use of VLF/LF (very low frequency (3–30 kHz)/low frequency (30–300 kHz)) radio sounding of seismo-ionospheric perturbations to study seismogenic effects. Because an understanding of the early history in any area will provide a lot of crucial insights to the readers (especially to young scientists) working in the field of seismo-electromagnetics, we provide a brief history (mainly results reported by a Russian group of scientists) of the initial application of subionospheric VLF/LF propagation for the study of ionospheric perturbations associated with EQs, and then we present our first convincing evidence on the ionospheric perturbation for the disastrous Kobe EQ in 1995, with a new analysis method based on the shifts in terminator times in VLF/LF diurnal variations (minima in the diurnal variations in amplitude and phase). We then summarize our latest results on further evidence of seismo-ionospheric perturbations. Firstly, we present a few statistical studies on the correlation between VLF/LF propagation anomalies and EQs based on long-term data. Secondly, we showcase studies for a few large, recent EQs (including the 2011 Tohoku EQ). Building on those EQ precursor studies, we demonstrate scientific topics and the underlying physics that can be studied using VLF/LF data, highlighting recent achievements including the revolutionary perspective of lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC) (or how the ionosphere is perturbed due to the lithospheric pre-EQ activity), modulation in VLF/LF data by atmospheric gravity waves (AGWs), Doppler-shift observation, satellite observation of VLF/LF transmitter signals, etc., together with the recommendation of the application of new technologies such as artificial intelligence and critical analysis to VLF/LF analysis. Finally, we want to emphasize again the essential significance of the information on lower-ionospheric perturbations within LAIC studies.
VLF/LF Radio Sounding of Ionospheric Perturbations Associated with Earthquakes
It is recently recognized that the ionosphere is very sensitive to seismic effects,and the detection of ionospheric perturbations associated with earthquakes, seems to bevery promising for short-term earthquake prediction. We have proposed a possible use ofVLF/LF (very low frequency (3-30 kHz) /low frequency (30-300 kHz)) radio sounding ofthe seismo-ionospheric perturbations. A brief history of the use of subionospheric VLF/LFpropagation for the short-term earthquake prediction is given, followed by a significantfinding of ionospheric perturbation for the Kobe earthquake in 1995. After showingprevious VLF/LF results, we present the latest VLF/LF findings; One is the statisticalcorrelation of the ionospheric perturbation with earthquakes and the second is a case studyfor the Sumatra earthquake in December, 2004, indicating the spatical scale and dynamicsof ionospheric perturbation for this earthquake.
Earthquake Prediction with Radio Techniques
The latest achievements of earthquake prediction via radio communication systems, by the world's leading authority Prof. Hayakawa is one of the world leaders in the field of seismo-electromagnetics for EQ prediction and this area of research is still evolving Presents the fundamentals of radio communications and radio propagation, using the radio noises and propagation anomalies as a precursor of earthquakes Considers the combination of different kinds of seismogenic electromagnetic signals of both natural and artificial character Timely topic following the recent sequence of highly destructive earthquakes around the world
Progress in the Study of Transient Luminous and Atmospheric Events: A Review
Transient luminous events (TLEs) such as sprites, blue jets (BJs) and elves have been studied intensively during the last three decades, and much is now known of their properties. This progress is caused by several factors including satellite optical observations, ground-based measurements of sprite-produced electromagnetic fields, the use of high-speed video observations and telescopic cameras with high resolution that enables one to trace the dynamics of sprite and BJ development. In this paper, we review various types of TLEs, including recently discovered dancing sprites, gnomes, ultraviolet (UV) atmospheric flashes and other effects. The sprite initiation, visible evolution, streamer structure, and their relationship with intra-cloud (IC) process are discussed. Considerable study has been given to ULF/ELF measurements which can provide us with important information on the delayed sprite generation and the role played by IC processes in the perturbation of the lower ionosphere above the sprite. A set of electrodynamic and transport kinetic equations describing the TLEs are complicated because the number densities, mobilities of electrons and ions, reaction constants and other parameters are strongly dependent on altitude. Because of this, the majority of theoretical study of TLEs and other large-scale optical phenomena at high altitude are based on numerical modeling of the basic kinetic, transport and electrodynamic equations describing TLEs evolution, whereas the analytical theory remains a formidable task to be accomplished. In this paper, we review a few analytical results, which have been recently derived from simple physical models of the TLEs phenomena. In the remainder of this paper, we focus our attention on the properties of UV flashes in the mesosphere, which have been observed onboard Russian microsatellites “Universitetsky-Tanyana” and “Vernov.” Such a kind of optical flash is referred to as a transient atmospheric event, which differs from the TLEs in optical energy, duration and other parameters.
Integrated Analysis of Multi-Parameter Precursors to the Fukushima Offshore Earthquake (Mj = 7.3) on 13 February 2021 and Lithosphere–Atmosphere–Ionosphere Coupling Channels
The preparation phase of earthquakes (EQs) has been investigated by making full use of multi-parameter and multi-layer observations of EQ precursors, in order to better understand the lithosphere–atmosphere–ionosphere coupling (LAIC) process. For this purpose, we chose a specific target EQ, the huge EQ of Fukushima-ken-oki EQ on 13 February 2021 (magnitude Mj = 7.3). We initially reported on EQ precursors in different physical parameters not only of the lithosphere, but also of the atmosphere and ionosphere (Hayakawa et al. followed by Akhoondzadeh et al. and Draz et al., both based on satellite observations). Our first two papers dealt with seven electromagnetic precursors in the three layers (with emphasis on our own ground-based observations in the atmosphere and lower ionosphere), while the second paper dealt with Swarm satellite observations of magnetic field, electron density, and GPS TEC in the ionosphere, and the third paper dealt only with climatological parameters on and above the Earth’s surface (together with GPS TEC). We have extensively reviewed all of these results, and have coordinated the temporal evolutions of various physical parameters relevant to the LAIC system; we have sought to understand which hypothesis is more plausible in explaining the LAIC process. Then, we came to a conclusion that two possible LAIC channels seem to exist simultaneously for this EQ: a fast channel (nearly simultaneous responses on the ground and ionosphere), and a slow channel (or diffusion-type), with a time delay of a few to several days, in which the agent effects in the lithosphere and lowest atmosphere seem to propagate up to the ionosphere with a definite time delay. Finally, we have suggested some research directions for the future elucidation of LAIC channels, and also made some comments on an early EQ warning system.
Impact of Solar Activity on Schumann Resonance: Model and Experiment
Using Schumann resonance (SR) records from the Antarctic, we evaluate the impact of the solar activity on the global ionosphere over the period from 2002 to 2024. The updated vertical profile of the middle atmosphere conductivity is applied. The pivoted upper part of profiles above the knee altitude is adjusted to represent different levels of solar activity. The electric (lower) hC and the magnetic (upper) hL characteristic heights, the propagation constant ν(f) of the extremely low frequency (ELF) radio waves, and the basic resonance frequency f1 are computed for the profiles corresponding to the solar maximum, moderate, and minimum activity conditions by using the full-wave solution in the form of the Riccati differential equation. Model data are compared with experimental observations at the Ukrainian Antarctic Station of “Akademik Vernadsky” (geographic coordinates: 65.25° S and 64.25° W). The following results are discussed: (i) Solar activity modifies the upper characteristic height hL of the ionosphere by ±1 km over the 11-year cycle; (ii) Equations were obtained linking the current level of solar activity with the basic SR frequency, with the magnetic characteristic height, and with the ELF propagation constant; (iii) Based on SR monitoring within two complete solar cycles, a practical rule is proposed: an increase in the index of solar activity I10.7 by ~150 units raises the first SR frequency by ~0.1 Hz and elevates the magnetic characteristic height by ~2.5 km.
Unusual Animal Behavior as a Possible Candidate of Earthquake Prediction
Short-term (with a lead time of about one week) earthquake (EQ) prediction is one of the most challenging subjects in geoscience and applied science; however, it is highly required by society because it is of essential importance in mitigating the human and economic losses associated with EQs. Electromagnetic precursors have recently been agreed to be the most powerful candidate for short-term prediction, because a lot of evidence has been accumulated on the presence of electromagnetic precursors (not only from the lithosphere, but also from the atmosphere and ionosphere) prior to EQs during the last three decades. On the other hand, unusual animal behavior associated with EQs, which is the main topic of this review, has been investigated as a macroscopic phenomenon for many years, with a much longer history than the study of seismo-electromagnetics. So, in this paper, we first summarize the previous research work on this general unusual animal behavior with reference to its relationship with EQs, and then we pay the greatest attention to our own previous work on dairy cows’ milk yield changes. We recommend this unusual animal behavior as an additional potential tool for short-term EQ prediction, which may be a supplement to the above seismo-electromagnetic effects. Finally, we will present our latest case study (as an example) on unusual changes of cows’ milk yields for a particular recent Tokyo EQ on 7 October 2021, and further propose that electromagnetic effects might be a possible sensory mechanism of unusual animal behavior, suggesting a close link between electromagnetic effects and unusual animal behavior.
Gravity Wave Activity in the Stratosphere before the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake as the Mechanism of Lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere Coupling
The precursory atmospheric gravity wave (AGW) activity in the stratosphere has been investigated in our previous paper by studying an inland Kumamoto earthquake (EQ). We are interested in whether the same phenomenon occurs or not before another major EQ, especially an oceanic EQ. In this study, we have examined the stratospheric AGW activity before the oceanic 2011 Tohoku EQ (Mw 9.0), while using the temperature profiles that were retrieved from ERA5. The potential energy (EP) of AGW has enhanced from 3 to 7 March, 4–8 days before the EQ. The active region of the precursory AGW first appeared around the EQ epicenter, and then expanded omnidirectionally, but mainly toward the east, covering a wide area of 2500 km (in longitude) by 1500 km (in latitude). We also found the influence of the present AGW activity on some stratospheric parameters. The stratopause was heated and descended; the ozone concentration was also reduced and the zonal wind was reversed at the stratopause altitude before the EQ. These abnormalities of the stratospheric AGW and physical/chemical parameters are most significant on 5–6 March, which are found to be consistent in time and spatial distribution with the lower ionospheric perturbation, as detected by our VLF network observations. We have excluded the other probabilities by the processes of elimination and finally concluded that the abnormal phenomena observed in the present study are EQ precursors, although several potential sources can generate AGW activities and chemical variations in the stratosphere. The present paper shows that the abnormal stratospheric AGW activity has also been detected even before an oceanic EQ, and the AGW activity has obliquely propagated upward and further disturbed the lower ionosphere. This case study has provided further support to the AGW hypothesis of the lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling process.
A New Electric Field Mill Network to Estimate Temporal Variation of Simplified Charge Model in an Isolated Thundercloud
The gross charge distribution in an electrified cloud has already been estimated by polarity distribution of the electrostatic field on the ground surface. While either a dipole or a tripole charge structure is commonly accepted, the increase–decrease and motion of each point charge in those models are both still unclear. This paper presents a new network of electric field mills for multipoint electrostatic measurement to evaluate the temporal variations of a simple cloud charge model with second-scale resolution. Details of our newly developed equipment are described, with an emphasis on its advantages. This network was deployed in the north Kanto area of Japan and operated during the summer season in 2020. In order to simplify the relationship between cloud charge positions and the horizontal distribution of the measured electrostatic field, an isolated thundercloud is focused on. As an initial analysis, a negative point charge model is applied to an isolated cloud observed on 27 August 2020. The quantity and height of the point charge were estimated as being approximately −20 C and 7 km, respectively. The calculated charge location is generally coincident with the C-band radar echo regions. Significant correspondence is demonstrated between the intensity distribution of the electrostatic fields measured at seven sites and that calculated with estimated point charge. This result indicates the possibility to determine the amounts and positions of cloud charges inside the dipole charge structure based on multipoint measurement of the electrostatic field.
Towards Understanding Earthquake Preparatory Dynamics: A Multi-Parametric Investigation of the 2025 Kamchatka Mw 8.8 Event
We present a comprehensive multi-parametric analysis of Lithosphere– Atmosphere–Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) processes associated with the M = 8.8 earthquake that struck offshore Kamchatka, Russia, on 30 July 2025 (29 July 2015; 23:24:52 UTC). Thermal observations revealed coherent pre-seismic irregularities in near-surface air temperature, relative humidity, and atmospheric chemical potential (ACP), with maximum intensification occurring 1–2 days before the event, followed by rapid co-seismic dissipation and post-seismic recovery. Acoustic channel analysis revealed considerable enhancements in atmospheric gravity wave (AGW) potential energy, as computed from ERA5 reanalysis datasets, 3–5 days prior to the earthquake, with a co-seismic peak and weaker post-seismic irregularities at higher altitudes. Electromagnetic signatures manifested in both lower and upper ionospheric layers. Very-Low-Frequency (VLF) sub-ionospheric propagation from the NPM transmitter, continuously monitored at the PTK (Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky) station in Kamchatka, Russia, exhibited both positive and negative deviations in amplitude and phase during the preparatory phase. VLF amplitude exhibited wavelike deviations consistent with AGW periods, peaking one day prior to the earthquake. Ionospheric Vertical Total electron content (VTEC) showed coherent pre-seismic maxima 2–3 days before the main shock. Together, these thermal, acoustic, and electromagnetic observations strongly suggest a consistent pre-seismic build-up, co-seismic dissipation, and post-seismic recovery, providing a robust multi-channel imprint of the Kamchatka earthquake and highlighting the importance of integrated multi-parameter approaches for understanding earthquake preparatory dynamics.