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Weekly home monitoring of warfarin anticoagulation was not superior to monthly clinic testing in reducing the time to first stroke, major bleeding, or death, but it was associated with improved time within the target INR range, satisfaction with therapy, and quality-of-life scores. Anticoagulation with warfarin, if managed well, is effective in reducing thromboembolic complications such as stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation or a mechanical heart valve. 1 Unfortunately, in clinical practice, warfarin is typically underutilized and the quality of anticoagulation management can be poor, resulting in decreased effectiveness and increased complications. 2 High-quality management, such as that provided by anticoagulation clinics, can be an effective way to improve care but may require that patients travel to a centralized location, limiting the frequency of testing and in some cases access to anticoagulation treatment. Frequent home monitoring of the internationalized normalized ratio (INR) by means . . .

Background Available evidence suggests that cognitive impairment (CI), which leads to deficits in episodic memory, executive functions, visual attention, and language, is associated with difficulties in the capacity to perform activities of daily living. Hence any forecast of the future prevalence of functional disability should account for the likely impact of cognitive impairment on the onset of functional disability. Thus, this research aims to address this gap in literature by projecting the number of older adults in China with functional disability and cognitive impairment while accounting for the impact of cognitive impairment on the onset of functional disability. Methods We developed and validated a dynamic multi-state population model which simulates the population of China and tracks the transition of Chinese older adults (65 years and older) from 2010 to 2060, to and from six health states—(i) active older adults without cognitive impairment, (ii) active older adults with cognitive impairment, (iii) older adults with 1 to 2 ADL limitations, (iv) older adults with cognitive impairment and 1 to 2 ADL limitations, (v) older adults with 3 or more ADL limitations, and (vi) older adults with cognitive impairment and 3 or more ADL limitations. Results From 2015 to 2060, the number of older adults 65 years and older in China is projected to increase, of which the number with impairment (herein referred to as individuals with cognitive impairment and/or activity of daily living limitations) is projected to increase more than fourfold from 17·9 million (17·8–18·0) million in 2015 to 96·2 (95·3–97·1) million by 2060. Among the older adults with impairment, those with ADL limitations only is projected to increase from 3·7 million (3·6–3·7 million) in 2015 to 23·9 million (23·4–24·6 million) by 2060, with an estimated annual increase of 12·2% (12·1–12·3); while that for cognitive impairment only is estimated to increase from 11·4 million (11·3–11·5 million) in 2015 to 47·8 million (47·5–48·2 million) by 2060—this representing an annual growth of 7·07% (7·05–7·09). Conclusion Our findings suggest there will be an increase in demand for intermediate and long-term care services among the older adults with functional disability and cognitive impairment.

Background To examine the value of a Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trial (SMART) design compared to a conventional randomized control trial (RCT) for telemedicine strategies to support titration of insulin therapy for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) patients new to insulin. Methods Microsimulation models were created in R using a synthetic sample based on primary data from 63 subjects enrolled in a pilot study of a smartphone application (App), Diabetes Pal compared to a nurse-based telemedicine strategy (Nurse). For comparability, the SMART and an RCT design were constructed to allow comparison of four (embedded) adaptive interventions (AIs). Results In the base case scenario, the SMART has similar overall mean expected HbA1c and cost per subject compared with RCT, for sample size of n = 100 over 10,000 simulations. SMART has lower (better) standard deviations of the mean expected HbA1c per AI, and higher efficiency of choosing the correct AI across various sample sizes. The differences between SMART and RCT become apparent as sample size decreases. For both trial designs, the threshold value at which a subject was deemed to have been responsive at an intermediate point in the trial had an optimal choice (i.e., the sensitivity curve had a U-shape). SMART design dominates the RCT, in the overall mean HbA1c (lower value) when the threshold value is close to optimal. Conclusions SMART is suited to evaluating the efficacy of different sequences of treatment options, in addition to the advantage of providing information on optimal treatment sequences.

Background Stroke patients have increased risks of falls. We examined national registry data to evaluate the association between post-stroke functional level and the risk of low falls among post-stroke patients. Methods This retrospective cohort study analyzed data from national registries to examine the risk factors for post-stroke falls. Data for patients who suffered ischemic strokes and survived the index hospital admission was obtained from the Singapore National Stroke Registry and matched to the National Trauma Registry, from 2011 to 2015. The primary outcome measure was a low fall (fall height ≤ 0.5 m). Competing risk analysis was performed to examine the association between functional level (by modified Rankin score [mRS] at discharge) and the risk of subsequent low falls. Results In all, 2255 patients who suffered ischemic strokes had recorded mRS. The mean age was 66.6 years and 58.5% were men. By the end of 2015, 54 (2.39%) had a low fall while 93 (4.12%) died. After adjusting for potential confounders, mRS was associated with fall risk with an inverted U-shaped relationship. Compared to patients with a score of zero, the sub-distribution hazard ratio (SHR) increased to a maximum of 3.42 (95%CI:1.21–9.65, p  = 0.020) for patients with a score of 2. The SHR then declined to 2.45 (95%CI:0.85–7.12, p  = 0.098), 2.86 (95%CI:0.95–8.61, p  = 0.062) and 1.93 (95%CI:0.44–8.52, p  = 0.38) for patients with scores of 3, 4 and 5 respectively. Conclusions An inverted U-shaped relationship between functional status and fall risk was observed. This is consistent with the complex interplay between decreasing mobility (hence decreased opportunity to fall) and increasing susceptibility to falls. Fall prevention intervention could be targeted accordingly. (263 words)

Background Falls and fall-related injuries among older adults in Singapore are a serious health problem that require early intervention. In previous research, exercise interventions have been effective in improving functional outcomes and reducing falls for a broad group of older adults. However, results from multi-domain, multi-component falls prevention programs for high fall risk older adults in the community remain equivocal. One reason for these results is that there is significant heterogeneity in falls risk factors amongst high falls risk older adults which makes tailoring multicomponent interventions complex. The objective of the trial is to evaluate the effectiveness of an enhanced version of the predecessor program, SAFE. The Steps to Avoid Falls in the Elderly—a TECHnology enhanced intervention (SAFE-TECH) is designed for older adults in the community who are at high risk of falls, with candidate selection and program tailoring based on gait variables derived from wearable sensors and various questionnaire-based features. Methods SAFE-TECH is a 12-month randomized controlled trial involving 400 older adults at high risk of falling, who are randomly allocated to an intervention or control group in a 1:1 ratio. Participants will be assessed at baseline, 3rd-month and 12th-month for functional status, physical performance, cognitive status, quality of life, and medical history. Monthly phone calls will assess fall status, healthcare utilization, physical activity, and exercise self-efficacy. Participants in the intervention group will undergo a tailored, multi-domain, multi-component falls prevention program. The active intervention phase will last for 12-weeks with exercises focusing on strength, balance, coordination, flexibility, and aerobic endurance; and weekly educational sessions on falls risk with personalized feedback based on participant’s falls risk assessments and environmental checklist. Discussions SAFE-TECH seeks to evaluate enhanced existing falls prevention programs by addressing the heterogeneity of falls risk through rapid assessments and personalisation of exercise and education components while maintaining the efficiency of the group setting. Our findings will inform practical efforts to reduce falls and falls-related injuries among community-dwelling older adults. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov. Clinical Trial Number: NCT06102954|| 22–10-2023.

This study compares projections, up to year 2040, of young-old (aged 60-79) and old-old (aged 80+) with functional disability in Singapore with and without accounting for the changing educational composition of the Singaporean elderly. Two multi-state population models, with and without accounting for educational composition respectively, were developed, parameterized with age-gender-(education)-specific transition probabilities (between active, functional disability and death states) estimated from two waves (2009 and 2011) of a nationally representative survey of community-dwelling Singaporeans aged ≥ 60 years (N=4,990). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis with the bootstrap method was used to obtain the 95% confidence interval of the transition probabilities. Not accounting for educational composition overestimated the young-old with functional disability by 65 percent and underestimated the old-old by 20 percent in 2040. Accounting for educational composition, the proportion of old-old with functional disability increased from 40.8 percent in 2000 to 64.4 percent by 2040; not accounting for educational composition, the proportion in 2040 was 49.4 percent. Since the health profiles, and hence care needs, of the old-old differ from those of the young-old, health care service utilization and expenditure and the demand for formal and informal caregiving will be affected, impacting health and long-term care policy.

Older adults with cognitive impairment (CI) are twice as likely to fall compared to the general older adult population. Traditional fall risk assessments may not be suitable for older adults with CI due to their reliance on attention and recall. Hence, there is an interest in using objective technology-based fall risk assessment tools to assess falls within this population. This systematic review aims to evaluate the features and performance of technology-based fall risk assessment tools for older adults with CI. A systematic search was conducted across several databases such as PubMed and IEEE Xplore, resulting in the inclusion of 22 studies. Most studies focused on participants with dementia. The technologies included sensors, mobile applications, motion capture, and virtual reality. Fall risk assessments were conducted in the community, laboratory, and institutional settings; with studies incorporating continuous monitoring of older adults in everyday environments. Studies used a combination of technology-based inputs of gait parameters, socio-demographic indicators, and clinical assessments. However, many missed the opportunity to include cognitive performance inputs as predictors to fall risk. The findings of this review support the use of technology-based fall risk assessment tools for older adults with CI. Further advancements incorporating cognitive measures and additional longitudinal studies are needed to improve the effectiveness and clinical applications of these assessment tools. Additional work is also required to compare the performance of existing methods for fall risk assessment, technology-based fall risk assessments, and the combination of these approaches.

Since Singapore became an independent nation in 1965, the development of its health-care system has been underpinned by an emphasis on personal responsibility for health, and active government intervention to ensure access and affordability through targeted subsidies and to reduce unnecessary costs. Singapore is achieving good health outcomes, with a total health expenditure of 4·47% of gross domestic product in 2016. However, the health-care system is contending with increased stress, as reflected in so-called pain points that have led to public concern, including shortages in acute hospital beds and intermediate and long-term care (ILTC) services, and high out-of-pocket payments. The main drivers of these challenges are the rising prevalence of non-communicable diseases and rapid population ageing, limitations in the delivery and organisation of primary care and ILTC, and financial incentives that might inadvertently impede care integration. To address these challenges, Singapore's Ministry of Health implemented a comprehensive set of reforms in 2012 under its Healthcare 2020 Masterplan. These reforms substantially increased the capacity of public hospital beds and ILTC services in the community, expanded subsidies for primary care and long-term care, and introduced a series of financing health-care reforms to strengthen financial protection and coverage. However, it became clear that these measures alone would not address the underlying drivers of system stress in the long term. Instead, the system requires, and is making, much more fundamental changes to its approach. In 2016, the Ministry of Health encapsulated the required shifts in terms of the so-called Three Beyonds—namely, beyond health care to health, beyond hospital to community, and beyond quality to value.

Background In Cambodia, economic development accompanied by health reforms has led to a rapidly ageing population and an increasing incidence and prevalence of noncommunicable diseases. National strategic plans recognize primary care health centres as the focal points of care for treating and managing chronic conditions, particularly hypertension and type 2 diabetes. However, health centres have limited experience in providing such services. This case study describes the process of developing a toolkit to facilitate the use of evidence-based guidelines to manage hypertension and type 2 diabetes at the health-centre level. Methods We developed and revised a preliminary toolkit based on the feedback received from key stakeholders. We gathered feedback through an iterative process of group and one-to-one consultations with representatives of the Ministry of Health, provincial health department, health centres and nongovernmental organizations between April 2019 and March 2021. Results A toolkit was developed and organized according to the core tasks required to treat and manage hypertension and type 2 diabetes patients. The main tools included patient identification and treatment cards, risk screening forms, a treatment flowchart, referral forms, and patient education material on risk factors and lifestyle recommendations on diet, exercise, and smoking cessation. The toolkit supplements existing guidelines by incorporating context-specific features, including drug availability and the types of medication and dosage guidelines recommended by the Ministry of Health. Referral forms can be extended to incorporate engagement with community health workers and patient education material adapted to the local context. All tools were translated into Khmer and can be modified as needed based on available resources and arrangements with other institutions. Conclusions Our study demonstrates how a toolkit can be developed through iterative engagement with relevant stakeholders individually and in groups to support the implementation of evidence-based guidelines. Such toolkits can help strengthen the function and capacity of the primary care system to provide care for noncommunicable diseases, serving as the first step towards developing a more comprehensive and sustainable health system in the context of population ageing and caring for patients with chronic diseases.

Background This paper aims to demonstrate how systems modeling methodology of Group Model Building (GMD) can be applied for exploring and reaching consensus on non-communicable disease (NCD) management. This exercise was undertaken as a first step for developing a quantitative simulation model for generating credible estimates to make an investment case for the prevention and management of NCDs. Methods Stakeholder engagement was facilitated through the use of a Group Model Building (GMB) approach. This approach combines various techniques in order to gain a whole system perspective. Results A conceptual qualitative model framework that connects prevention—via risk factors reduction—screening and treatment of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) was developed with stakeholders that draws on stakeholders personal experiences, beliefs, and perceptions through a moderated interactions to gain in-depth understanding of NCDs management. Conclusion Managing NCDs in Cambodia will require concerted effort to tackle NCD risk factors, identifying individuals with NCDs through screening and providing adequate and affordable consistent care to improve health and outcomes of NCDs.