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Agriculture remains important in driving economic transformation, sustainable livelihoods, and development in developing countries. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis and discussion of climate change impacts on water and agriculture sectors and implications for the attainment of developmental outcomes such as food security, poverty reduction, and sustainable development in Southern Africa. The review gives policy messages for coping, adapting, and building resilience of water and agricultural production systems in the face of projected changes in climate and variability. The aim is to guide the region towards the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. Future projections for Southern Africa indicate reduced rainfall, increased temperatures, and high variability for the greater part of the region with severe reductions on the drier and marginal western parts. These impacts have profound implications for agriculture performance and contribution to national and regional developmental goals. The region is projected to experience reductions of between 15% and 50% in agricultural productivity, a scenario that would exacerbate food insecurity in the region. The challenge is to increase productivity on current arable land through efficient and sustainable management of available water and energy, and at the same time reducing pressure on the environment. Affordability and accessibility of innovative adaptation measures on water resources remain critical and these strategies should be part of broader sustainable development efforts. Overall, efforts to enhance agricultural productivity need to emphasise investments in sustainable management and use of water and energy resources in agriculture to achieve sustainable economic growth and livelihoods.

The discourse on the need for water, energy, and food security has dominated the development agenda of southern African countries, centred on improving livelihoods, building resilience, and regional integration. About 60% of the population in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) live in rural areas relying mainly on rainfed agriculture, lacking access to clean water and energy, yet the region is endowed with vast natural resources. The water-energy-food (WEF) nexus is a conceptual framework that presents opportunities for greater resource coordination, management, and policy convergence across sectors. This is particularly relevant in the SADC region as resources are transboundary and supports efforts linked to regional integration and inclusive socio-economic development and security. We conducted an appraisal of WEF-related policies and institutions in SADC and identified linkages among them. The present ‘silo’ approach in resource management and allocation, often conducted at the national level, contributes to the region’s failure to meet its development targets, exacerbating its vulnerabilities. The lack of coordination of WEF nexus synergies and trade-offs in planning often threatens the sustainability of development initiatives. We highlighted the importance of the WEF nexus to sustainably address the sectoral coordination of resources through harmonised institutions and policies, as well as setting targets and indicators to direct and monitor nexus developments. We illustrate the significance of the nexus in promoting inclusive development and transforming vulnerable communities into resilient societies. The study recommends a set of integrated assessment models to monitor and evaluate the implementation of WEF nexus targets. Going forward, we propose the adoption of a regional WEF nexus framework.

Sustainable development has become the main focus of the global development agenda as presented in the 2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, for countries to assess progress, they need to have reliable baseline indicators. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to develop a composite baseline index of the agriculture-related SDGs in Southern Africa to guide progress reporting. The paper identified eight of the SDG indicators related to the agriculture sector. The paper relies on data for indicators from five SDGs (SDGs 1, 2, 6, 7 and 15). Applying the arithmetic mean method of aggregation, an agriculture-related SDG composite index for Southern Africa between zero (0 = poor performance) and 100 (best possible performance) was computed for thirteen countries that had data on all identified indicators. The results show that the best performing countries (Botswana, Angola, Namibia, Zambia and South Africa) in the assessment recorded high scores in SDGs 1, 2 and 7. The three countries (Democratic Republic of Congo, Zimbabwe and Madagascar) that performed poorly on both SDG 1 and 2 also had the least scores on the overall agriculture-related SDG composite index. The water stress indicator for SDG 6 recorded the worst performance among most countries in the region. Possible approaches to improve the contribution of agriculture to SDGs may include investing more resources in priority areas for each agriculture-related SDG depending on baseline country conditions. The implementation, monitoring and evaluation of regional and continental commitments in the agriculture sector and the SDGs are critical for achievement of the targets at the national and local levels. While the methods employed are well-grounded in literature, data unavailability for some of the SDGs in some countries presented a limitation to the study, and future efforts should focus on collecting data for the other SDGs in order to permit a wider application.

The increasing frequency and intensity of droughts and floods, coupled with increasing temperatures and declining rainfall totals, are exacerbating existing vulnerabilities in southern Africa. Agriculture is the most affected sector as 95% of cultivated area is rainfed. This review addressed trends in moisture stress and the impacts on crop production, highlighting adaptation possible strategies to ensure food security in southern Africa. Notable changes in rainfall patterns and deficiencies in soil moisture are estimated and discussed, as well as the impact of rainfall variability on crop production and proposed adaptation strategies in agriculture. Climate moisture index (CMI) was used to assess aridity levels. Southern Africa is described as a climate hotspot due to increasing aridity, low adaptive capacity, underdevelopment and marginalisation. Although crop yields have been increasing due to increases in irrigated area and use of improved seed varieties, they have not been able to meet the food requirements of a growing population, compromising regional food security targets. Most countries in the region depend on international aid to supplement yield deficits. The recurrence of droughts caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) continue devastating the region, affecting livelihoods, economies and the environment. An example is the 2015/2016 ENSO drought that caused the region to call for international aid to feed about 40 million people. In spite of the water scarcity challenges, cereal production continues to increase steadily due to increased investment in irrigated agriculture and improved crop varieties. Given the current and future vulnerability of the agriculture sector in southern Africa, proactive adaptation interventions are important to help farming communities develop resilient systems to adapt to the changes and variability in climate and other stressors.

Southern Africa faces acute water scarcity challenges due to drought recurrence, degradation of surface water resources, and the increasing demand of water from agriculture, which has to meet the growing food demands of an increasing population. These stressors require innovative solutions that ensure the sustainability of water resources, without which the consequences could be dire for a region exposed to a host of vulnerabilities, including climate change. This review outlines the role of water markets in water management in times of water scarcity, highlighting the drivers of water markets in southern Africa, such as water scarcity, transboundary nature of water resources, and their uneven distribution. The review further discusses the role of water markets in climate change adaptation. Related institutional and legal frameworks as well as water allocation mechanisms are explored, aiming at improving water markets governance. The impact of adaptation to new water regimes in the face of scarcity are assessed by considering characteristics of current markets as related to future opportunities. In a diverse region such as southern Africa with unevenly distributed water resources, advancing the concept of water markets could play an important role in mitigating water scarcity challenges and promoting regional integration through coordinated transboundary water transfers. The emergence of water markets in the region is influenced by the continued depletion of water resources, which is resulting in the adoption of innovative water marketing strategies, such as inter-farm sharing or farm joint venture systems and inter-basin and intra-basin water transfers. As the concept is new in the region, it still has challenges that include general market inefficiencies, high transaction costs, market information asymmetries, imperfect competition, and weak or absent robust institutional frameworks that can facilitate market development.

Mozambique is characterized by low agricultural productivity, which is associated with low use of yield-enhancing agricultural inputs. Fertilizer application rate averaged 5.7 kg ha−1 in Mozambique during the period 2006 to 2015, considerably low by regional targets, yet constraints that affect fertilizer use have not been thoroughly investigated. This study examined the constraints on fertilizer value chains in Mozambique to contribute to fertilizer supply chain strengthening. We used a combination of multivariate analysis and descriptive methods. Our findings indicate that fertilizer use has both demand and supply constraints. Key demand-side constraints include liquidity challenges, limited awareness about the benefits of using fertilizer, and low market participation, while the main supply-side constraints include high transaction costs, limited access to finance, and lack of soil testing results and corresponding fertilizer recommendations by soil type and crop uptake. These results suggest that scaling up the input subsidy program through vouchers (either paper-based vouchers or e-vouchers) with demonstration plots and effective targeting could drive up smallholders’ demand for fertilizer and fertilizer supply by strengthening a sustainable network of wholesalers and retailers. This would likely boost agricultural productivity.

Limited irrigation adoption hinders agricultural production for Zambia's smallholder farmers, despite its potential to mitigate the impact of erratic rainfall patterns. This scoping review investigates the irrigation equipment supply landscape in Zambia, focusing on its capacity to serve smallholders. Using the PRISMA framework, the review explores the range of available irrigation technologies, the technical knowledge of suppliers, and the challenges and opportunities surrounding equipment supply. The review identifies affordability of irrigation equipment, uneven distribution of technical support and spare parts, and limited access to credit and market opportunities as key challenges hindering smallholder farmers’ irrigation adoption. However, opportunities exist through geographic targeting, collaboration with development initiatives and supermarkets, and improved access to financing. By addressing these challenges and capitalizing on opportunities, stakeholders can empower smallholder farmers to adopt irrigation technologies and achieve increased production.

The virtual water content of a product (a commodity, good or service) relates to the amount of water that is used in its production. Virtual-water 'trade ' represents the amount of water embedded in products traded. With this background, countries that export agriculture commodities also export water. The purpose of this paper is to explore trends in virtual water trade in the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) region focusing on Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Zambia, in order to understand whether water rich countries export more water into the SADC through virtual water trade in cereals. The analysis is based on data on trade volumes, crop yields, and crop water requirements. The results show that South Africa, Zambia and Malawi, are the main exporters of virtual water embedded in Maize, Soybean and Groundnuts into the SADC. The Results also show that while virtual water trade has generally been increasing over time, an inquiry into whether water rich countries relatively export more water intensive commodities such as groundnuts and soybean, yields mixed results. For example groundnuts virtual water movement is stronger from both water scarce and water rich places of the SADC implying that other underlying factors than just water endowments may determine virtual water trade flows. For countries to improve water resource allocation through trade, more advocacy and analysis may be useful.

We critically assessed experiences in the implementation of agricultural joint sector reviews in supporting mutual accountability in Southern Africa, focusing on the lessons learned, the challenges and recommendations for improvement. Empirical data were gathered from four countries that have implemented joint sector reviews: Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland and Zambia. The results show that recent efforts to conduct joint sector review assessments in these countries have raised the quest for increased accountability for action and results. Despite progress to strengthen mutual accountability in the countries, monitoring and evaluation capacity remains a concern, especially at sub-national levels. The mutual accountability process and implementation of the agricultural joint sector review processes in the respective countries have come a long way in facilitating sector-wide engagement of stakeholders in planning, implementation and monitoring and evaluation of agricultural policies and programmes. These processes are critical to ensure effective implementation and realisation of development impacts of agricultural priorities in the national agricultural investment plans. Significance: • The implementation of the CAADP mutual accountability framework is critical to ensure effective implementation and realisation of development impacts of agricultural priorities in the national agricultural investment plans. • Agriculture joint sector reviews facilitate sector-wide engagement of stakeholders in planning, implementation, and monitoring and evaluation of agricultural policies and programmes.

This paper explores ways to increase public investments in agricultural water management and irrigation for improved agricultural productivity in Southern Africa, with a specific focus on Malawi, Mozambique and Zambia. The analysis was based on a critical review of literature and assessment of the national agricultural investment plans and agricultural/water policies in the study countries. Despite the potential to improve agricultural productivity, irrigation does not currently play a significant role in Southern African agriculture. There have been efforts and formal commitments at the continental, regional and country levels to promote investments in agricultural water management and irrigation to improve and sustain agricultural productivity. However, despite these commitments, actual implementation has been a challenge and the first 5 years of national agricultural investment plans have passed or are now coming to an end without much progress having been made regarding actual investments. Lack of adequate resources and institutional capacity have been some of the challenges affecting implementation of the investment plans to meet commitments in sustainable land and water management. Overall, as countries plan for the second phase of the CAADP programme, there are opportunities to ensure that investments in agricultural water management and irrigation and complementary technologies are prioritised and allocated adequate resources for implementation.