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The main arteries that supply blood to the brain originate from the Circle of Willis (CoW). The CoW exhibits considerable anatomical variations which may have clinical importance, but the variability is insufficiently characterised in the general population. We assessed the anatomical variability of CoW variants in a community-dwelling sample (N = 1,864, 874 men, mean age = 65.4, range 40-87 years), and independent and conditional frequencies of the CoW's artery segments. CoW segments were classified as present or missing/hypoplastic (w/1mm diameter threshold) on 3T time-of-flight magnetic resonance angiography images. We also examined whether age and sex were associated with CoW variants. We identified 47 unique CoW variants, of which five variants constituted 68.5% of the sample. The complete variant was found in 11.9% of the subjects, and the most common variant (27.8%) was missing both posterior communicating arteries. Conditional frequencies showed patterns of interdependence across most missing segments in the CoW. CoW variants were associated with mean-split age (P = .0147), and there was a trend showing more missing segments with increasing age. We found no association with sex (P = .0526). Our population study demonstrated age as associated with CoW variants, suggesting reduced collateral capacity with older age.

Carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) is related to the risk of cardiovascular events in the general population. An association between changes in cIMT and cardiovascular risk is frequently assumed but has rarely been reported. Our aim was to test this association. We identified general population studies that assessed cIMT at least twice and followed up participants for myocardial infarction, stroke, or death. The study teams collaborated in an individual participant data meta-analysis. Excluding individuals with previous myocardial infarction or stroke, we assessed the association between cIMT progression and the risk of cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, vascular death, or a combination of these) for each study with Cox regression. The log hazard ratios (HRs) per SD difference were pooled by random effects meta-analysis. Of 21 eligible studies, 16 with 36 984 participants were included. During a mean follow-up of 7·0 years, 1519 myocardial infarctions, 1339 strokes, and 2028 combined endpoints (myocardial infarction, stroke, vascular death) occurred. Yearly cIMT progression was derived from two ultrasound visits 2–7 years (median 4 years) apart. For mean common carotid artery intima-media thickness progression, the overall HR of the combined endpoint was 0·97 (95% CI 0·94–1·00) when adjusted for age, sex, and mean common carotid artery intima-media thickness, and 0·98 (0·95–1·01) when also adjusted for vascular risk factors. Although we detected no associations with cIMT progression in sensitivity analyses, the mean cIMT of the two ultrasound scans was positively and robustly associated with cardiovascular risk (HR for the combined endpoint 1·16, 95% CI 1·10–1·22, adjusted for age, sex, mean common carotid artery intima-media thickness progression, and vascular risk factors). In three studies including 3439 participants who had four ultrasound scans, cIMT progression did not correlate between occassions (reproducibility correlations between r=−0·06 and r=−0·02). The association between cIMT progression assessed from two ultrasound scans and cardiovascular risk in the general population remains unproven. No conclusion can be derived for the use of cIMT progression as a surrogate in clinical trials. Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft.

Vitamin D deficiency may be a risk factor for mortality but previous meta-analyses lacked standardization of laboratory methods for 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentrations and used aggregate data instead of individual participant data (IPD). We therefore performed an IPD meta-analysis on the association between standardized serum 25(OH)D and mortality. In a European consortium of eight prospective studies, including seven general population cohorts, we used the Vitamin D Standardization Program (VDSP) protocols to standardize 25(OH)D data. Meta-analyses using a one step procedure on IPD were performed to study associations of 25(OH)D with all-cause mortality as the primary outcome, and with cardiovascular and cancer mortality as secondary outcomes. This meta-analysis is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02438488. We analysed 26916 study participants (median age 61.6 years, 58% females) with a median 25(OH)D concentration of 53.8 nmol/L. During a median follow-up time of 10.5 years, 6802 persons died. Compared to participants with 25(OH)D concentrations of 75 to 99.99 nmol/L, the adjusted hazard ratios (with 95% confidence interval) for mortality in the 25(OH)D groups with 40 to 49.99, 30 to 39.99, and <30 nmol/L were 1.15 (1.00-1.29), 1.33 (1.16-1.51), and 1.67 (1.44-1.89), respectively. We observed similar results for cardiovascular mortality, but there was no significant linear association between 25(OH)D and cancer mortality. There was also no significantly increased mortality risk at high 25(OH)D levels up to 125 nmol/L. In the first IPD meta-analysis using standardized measurements of 25(OH)D we observed an association between low 25(OH)D and increased risk of all-cause mortality. It is of public health interest to evaluate whether treatment of vitamin D deficiency prevents premature deaths.

BackgroundManagement of incidental unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIAs) remains challenging and depends on their risk of rupture, estimated from the assumed prevalence of aneurysms and the incidence of aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage. Reported prevalence varies, and consistent criteria for definition of UIAs are lacking. We aimed to study the prevalence of UIAs in a general population according to different definitions of aneurysm.MethodsCross-sectional population-based study using 3-dimensional time-of-flight 3 Tesla MR angiography to identify size, type and location of UIAs in 1862 adults aged 40–84 years. Size was measured as the maximal distance between any two points in the aneurysm sac. Prevalence was estimated for different diameter cutoffs (≥1, 2 and 3 mm) with and without inclusion of extradural aneurysms.ResultsThe overall prevalence of intradural saccular aneurysms ≥2 mm was 6.6% (95% CI 5.4% to 7.6%), 7.5% (95% CI 5.9% to 9.2%) in women and 5.5% (95% CI 4.1% to 7.2%) in men. Depending on the definition of an aneurysm, the overall prevalence ranged from 3.8% (95% CI 3.0% to 4.8%) for intradural aneurysms ≥3 mm to 8.3% (95% CI 7.1% to 9.7%) when both intradural and extradural aneurysms ≥1 mm were included.ConclusionPrevalence in this study was higher than previously observed in other Western populations and was substantially influenced by definitions according to size and extradural or intradural location. The high prevalence of UIAs sized <5 mm may suggest lower rupture risk than previously estimated. Consensus on more robust and consistent radiological definitions of UIAs is warranted.

Clinical manifestations and outcomes of atherosclerotic disease differ between ethnic groups. In addition, the prevalence of risk factors is substantially different. Primary prevention programs are based on data derived from almost exclusively White people. We investigated how race/ethnic differences modify the associations of established risk factors with atherosclerosis and cardiovascular events. We used data from an ongoing individual participant meta-analysis involving 17 population-based cohorts worldwide. We selected 60,211 participants without cardiovascular disease at baseline with available data on ethnicity (White, Black, Asian or Hispanic). We generated a multivariable linear regression model containing risk factors and ethnicity predicting mean common carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) and a multivariable Cox regression model predicting myocardial infarction or stroke. For each risk factor we assessed how the association with the preclinical and clinical measures of cardiovascular atherosclerotic disease was affected by ethnicity. Ethnicity appeared to significantly modify the associations between risk factors and CIMT and cardiovascular events. The association between age and CIMT was weaker in Blacks and Hispanics. Systolic blood pressure associated more strongly with CIMT in Asians. HDL cholesterol and smoking associated less with CIMT in Blacks. Furthermore, the association of age and total cholesterol levels with the occurrence of cardiovascular events differed between Blacks and Whites. The magnitude of associations between risk factors and the presence of atherosclerotic disease differs between race/ethnic groups. These subtle, yet significant differences provide insight in the etiology of cardiovascular disease among race/ethnic groups. These insights aid the race/ethnic-specific implementation of primary prevention.

Hilma Holm and colleagues report genome-wide association studies to electrocardiographic measures of heart rate, PR interval, QRS duration and QT interval. Electrocardiographic measures are indicative of the function of the cardiac conduction system. To search for sequence variants that modulate heart rate, PR interval and QRS duration in individuals of European descent, we performed a genome-wide association study in ∼10,000 individuals and followed up the top signals in an additional ∼10,000 individuals. We identified several genome-wide significant associations (with P < 1.6 × 10 −7 ). We identified one locus for heart rate ( MYH6 ), four for PR interval ( TBX5 , SCN10A , CAV1 and ARHGAP24 ) and four for QRS duration ( TBX5 , SCN10A , 6p21 and 10q21). We tested for association between these loci and subjects with selected arrhythmias in Icelandic and Norwegian case-control sample sets. We observed correlations between TBX5 and CAV1 and atrial fibrillation ( P = 4.0 × 10 −5 and P = 0.00032, respectively), between TBX5 and advanced atrioventricular block ( P = 0.0067), and between SCN10A and pacemaker implantation ( P = 0.0029). We also replicated previously described associations with the QT interval.

The association between myocardial infarction (MI) and future risk of incident cancer is scarcely investigated. Therefore, we aimed to study the risk of cancer after a first time MI in a large cohort recruited from a general population. Participants in a large population-based study without a previous history of MI or cancer (n = 28,763) were included and followed from baseline to date of cancer, death, migration or study end. Crude incidence rates (IRs) and hazard ratios (HRs) for cancer after MI were calculated. During a median follow-up of 15.7 years, 1747 subjects developed incident MI, and of these, 146 suffered from a subsequent cancer. In the multivariable-adjusted model (adjusted for age, sex, BMI, systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, HDL cholesterol, smoking, physical activity and education level), MI patients had 46% (HR 1.46; 95% CI: 1.21-1.77) higher hazard ratio of cancer compared to those without MI. The increased cancer incidence was highest during the first 6 months after the MI, with a 2.2-fold higher HR (2.15; 95% CI: 1.29-3.58) compared with subjects without MI. After a 2-year period without higher incidence rate, MI patients displayed 60% (HR 1.60; 95% CI: 1.27-2.03) higher HR of future cancer more than 3 years after the event. The increased IRs were higher in women than men. Patients with MI had a higher short- and long-term incidence rate of cancer compared to subjects without MI. Our findings suggest that occult cancer and shared risk factors of MI and cancer may partly explain the association.

BackgroundElevated resting heart rate (RHR) increases risk of death overall, but a comprehensive picture of the associations between RHR, cardiovascular morbidity and mortality events has not yet been presented. We aimed to investigate the effect of RHR on the risk of 5 cardiovascular events: incident myocardial infarction (MI), incident atrial fibrillation (AF), incident ischaemic stroke, total death and cardiovascular death in a general population from Norway.MethodsWe followed 24 489 men and women from the Tromsø Study 1994–1995, a population-based cohort study, for 18 years, and analysed the association between RHR and the investigated cardiovascular events. Sex-specific Cox regression with time-dependent covariates was applied with the best-fitting fractional polynomials of RHR.ResultsAmong men, an independent positive relationship was observed for MI and AF (adjusted HR for AF per 20 bpm increase=1.14; 95% CI 1.02 to 1.27). In women, the corresponding HR for MI was 1.23 (1.09 to 1.40). A J-shaped association was observed for ischaemic stroke in women when compared with a RHR of 70 bpm (HR for 50 bpm=1.31; 0.90 to 1.90; HR for 100 bpm=1.32; 1.04 to 1.69). Total and cardiovascular death showed a strong positive association with RHR in men. In women, the pattern for total death was similar.ConclusionsRHR is an independent risk factor for several cardiovascular events. A novel finding is the positive association between RHR and AF in men and the sex difference in association with ischaemic stroke.

ObjectivesThere is limited evidence regarding the impact of lipid-lowering drugs (LLDs) on the socioeconomic gradient in a longitudinal perspective. The study investigates the longitudinal socioeconomic gradient in total cholesterol levels and whether this is affected by the use of LLDs.DesignPopulation-based cohort study.SettingSample from adult inhabitants of Tromsø municipality, Norway, who participated in the Tromsø Study (1994–2016).Participants17 550 participants of the population-based Tromsø Study in 1994–1995 who were non-users of LLD, aged 25–78 years at baseline and who attended one or more of three subsequent surveys in 2001, 2007–2008 and 2015–2016 were included in the study.Outcome measureSocioeconomic gradient in total cholesterol levels was compared among participants treated and not treated with LLDs during the observation period.ResultsThe total cholesterol levels across all educational groups increased from 1994–1995 to 2015–2016 among untreated women (+0.33 mmol/L to +0.48 mmol/L), except for those with primary education (−0.12 mmol/L). Total cholesterol levels decreased among untreated men (−0.40 mmol/L to −0.06 mmol/L, from lowest education to highest education), treated women (−1.88 mmol/L to −1.35 mmol/L) and men (−2.21 mmol/L to −1.84 mmol/L) across all educational groups. At baseline, we observed a significant inverse association between education and total cholesterol levels among non-users of LLDs. There was no clear educational gradient in total cholesterol levels among users of LLDs.ConclusionsUsers of LLDs experienced a more substantial decrease in total cholesterol levels over time compared with non-users. The educational gradient in total cholesterol levels observed among non-users of LLD was not apparent among users.

Single measurements of modifiable risk factors may underestimate associations with outcomes in cohorts. We aimed to compare risk estimates of myocardial infarction (MI) and venous thromboembolism (VTE) by atherosclerotic risk factors during long follow-up using time-fixed analyses without and with correction for regression dilution and time-varying analyses. The study included 5970 subjects enrolled in the fourth survey of the Tromsø Study (1994/95). Blood pressure, lipid levels, body mass index (BMI), diabetes and smoking status were measured at baseline, and subjects still alive at the fifth (2001/02, n = 5179) and sixth (2007/08, n = 4391) survey were re-measured. Incident events of MI (n = 714) and VTE (n = 214) were recorded until December 2010. Time-fixed and time-varying Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for MI and VTE adjusted for age and sex. Variations in BMI, blood pressure and lipid levels were small, and did not alter the risk estimates when time-varying analyses were compared to time-fixed analyses. For MI, variables that changed considerably over time yielded the greatest changes in risk estimates (HR for smoking changed from 1.80 (95% CI 1.55-2.10) to 2.08 (95% CI 1.78-2.42)). For VTE, only BMI was associated with increased risk in both time-fixed and time-varying analysis, but the risk estimates weakened in the time-varying analysis. Correction of time-fixed HRs with Rosner´s method tended to overestimate risk estimates compared to time-varying analysis. For MI and VTE, risk estimates based on baseline and repeated measures corresponded well, whereas correction for regression dilution tended to overestimate risks.