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IntroductionTarget trial emulation is a framework for evaluating the effects of treatments using observational data. The trial emulation approach involves specifying key elements of a protocol for a target trial (a randomised controlled trial designed to address the question of interest) and then describing how best to emulate the trial using observational data. Recent years have seen an uptake of target trial emulation in several disease areas, although there are limited examples in cystic fibrosis (CF). This protocol describes a study which aims to assess the applicability of target trial emulation in CF. We aim to emulate an existing trial in CF and assess to what extent the results from the trial can be replicated using registry data.Methods and analysisThe target trial is a published randomised controlled trial which found evidence for beneficial effects of azithromycin use on lung function in young adults with CF. Two emulated trials are planned: one using data from the UK CF Registry and one using data from the US CF Registry. The inclusion and exclusion criteria, treatment and outcome definitions, follow-up period, and estimand of interest are all designed to match the published trial as closely as possible. The analysis step of the trial emulations will use causal inference methods to control for confounding. Results obtained in the emulated trials using registry data will be compared with those from the target trial.Ethics and disseminationEthical approval has been granted by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine Ethics Committee (Ref: 29609). This study has also been approved by the UK CF Registry Research Committee and the North Star Review Board. The results of this study will be published in a peer-reviewed journal and presented at relevant scientific conferences.

Chronic Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections cause significant morbidity in patients with cystic fibrosis (CF). Over years to decades, P. aeruginosa adapts genetically as it establishes chronic lung infections. Nonsynonymous mutations in lasR , the quorum-sensing (QS) master regulator, are common in CF. In laboratory strains of P. aeruginosa , LasR activates transcription of dozens of genes, including that for another QS regulator, RhlR. Despite the frequency with which lasR coding variants have been reported to occur in P. aeruginosa CF isolates, little is known about their consequences for QS. We sequenced lasR from 2,583 P. aeruginosa CF isolates. The lasR sequences of 580 isolates (22%) coded for polypeptides that differed from the conserved LasR polypeptides of well-studied laboratory strains. This collection included 173 unique lasR coding variants, 116 of which were either missense or nonsense mutations. We studied 31 of these variants. About one-sixth of the variant LasR proteins were functional, including 3 with nonsense mutations, and in some LasR-null isolates, genes that are LasR dependent in laboratory strains were nonetheless expressed. Furthermore, about half of the LasR-null isolates retained RhlR activity. Therefore, in some CF isolates the QS hierarchy is altered such that RhlR quorum sensing is independent of LasR regulation. Our analysis challenges the view that QS-silent P. aeruginosa is selected during the course of a chronic CF lung infection. Rather, some lasR sequence variants retain functionality, and many employ an alternate QS strategy involving RhlR. IMPORTANCE Chronic Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections, such as those in patients with the genetic disease cystic fibrosis, are notable in that mutants with defects in the quorum-sensing transcription factor LasR frequently arise. In laboratory strains of P. aeruginosa , quorum sensing activates transcription of dozens of genes, many of which encode virulence factors, such as secreted proteases and hydrogen cyanide synthases. In well-studied laboratory strains, LasR-null mutants have a quorum-sensing-deficient phenotype. Therefore, the presence of LasR variants in chronic infections has been interpreted to indicate that quorum-sensing-regulated products are not important for those infections. We report that some P. aeruginosa LasR variant clinical isolates are not LasR-null mutants, and others have uncoupled a second quorum-sensing system, the RhlR system, from LasR regulation. In these uncoupled isolates, RhlR independently activates at least some quorum-sensing-dependent genes. Our findings suggest that quorum sensing plays a role in chronic P. aeruginosa infections, despite the emergence of LasR coding variants. Chronic Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections, such as those in patients with the genetic disease cystic fibrosis, are notable in that mutants with defects in the quorum-sensing transcription factor LasR frequently arise. In laboratory strains of P. aeruginosa , quorum sensing activates transcription of dozens of genes, many of which encode virulence factors, such as secreted proteases and hydrogen cyanide synthases. In well-studied laboratory strains, LasR-null mutants have a quorum-sensing-deficient phenotype. Therefore, the presence of LasR variants in chronic infections has been interpreted to indicate that quorum-sensing-regulated products are not important for those infections. We report that some P. aeruginosa LasR variant clinical isolates are not LasR-null mutants, and others have uncoupled a second quorum-sensing system, the RhlR system, from LasR regulation. In these uncoupled isolates, RhlR independently activates at least some quorum-sensing-dependent genes. Our findings suggest that quorum sensing plays a role in chronic P. aeruginosa infections, despite the emergence of LasR coding variants.

IntroductionTherapeutic advances have markedly increased life expectancy for those with cystic fibrosis (CF), resulting in a median predicted survival over 50 years. Consequently, people with CF (pwCF) are living through their reproductive years and the rate of pregnancy is rapidly rising. Despite the increased relevance of this topic, multicentre studies investigating the association between maternal health and choices made during pregnancy on maternal and fetal outcomes do not exist. Furthermore, there are very limited data on the outcomes following CF transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) modulator use during pregnancy and lactation.Methods and analysisMaternal and Fetal Outcomes in the Era of Modulators (MAYFLOWERS) is a prospective, multicentre observational clinical trial which will enrol approximately 285 pregnant pwCF including those who are modulator ineligible and those who choose to continue or discontinue CFTR modulator therapy during pregnancy and lactation. The primary aim of this 35-month study is to assess whether lung function changes during pregnancy differ based on the continued use of modulators or other factors such as pre-existing comorbid conditions. Secondary objectives include evaluation of pregnancy related and obstetrical complications and changes in mental health.Ethics and disseminationThe design of this study required special consideration of study burden on pregnant and lactating people with chronic illness in the setting of a substantial number of unanswered questions under these conditions. MAYFLOWERS is the first prospective clinical trial examining pregnancy in CF; the outcomes will guide providers on pregnancy management in pwCF and others with chronic respiratory disease.

Background Tobramycin inhalation solution (TIS) and chronic azithromycin (AZ) have known clinical benefits for children with CF, likely due to antimicrobial and anti-inflammatory activity. The effects of chronic AZ in combination with TIS on the airway microbiome have not been extensively investigated. Oropharyngeal swab samples were collected in the OPTIMIZE multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled trial examining the addition of AZ to TIS in 198 children with CF and early P. aeruginosa infection. Bacterial small subunit rRNA gene community profiles were determined. The effects of TIS and AZ were assessed on oropharyngeal microbial diversity and composition to uncover whether effects on the bacterial community may be a mechanism of action related to the observed changes in clinical outcomes. Results Substantial changes in bacterial communities (total bacterial load, diversity and relative abundance of specific taxa) were observed by week 3 of TIS treatment for both the AZ and placebo groups. On average, these shifts were due to changes in non-traditional CF taxa that were not sustained at the later study visits (weeks 13 and 26). Bacterial community measures did not differ between the AZ and placebo groups. Conclusions This study provides further evidence that the mechanism for AZ’s effect on clinical outcomes is not due solely to action on airway microbial composition.

Cerebrospinal fluid shunt infection can be recalcitrant. Recurrence is common despite appropriate therapy for the pathogens identified by culture. Improved diagnostic and therapeutic approaches are required, and culture-independent molecular approaches to cerebrospinal fluid shunt infections have not been described. To identify the bacteria and fungi present in cerebrospinal fluid from children with cerebrospinal fluid shunt infection using a high-throughput sequencing approach, and to compare those results to those from negative controls and conventional culture. This descriptive study included eight children ≤18 years old undergoing treatment for culture-identified cerebrospinal fluid shunt infection. After routine aerobic culture of each cerebrospinal fluid sample, deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) extraction was followed by amplification of the bacterial 16S rRNA gene and the fungal ITS DNA region tag-encoded FLX-Titanium amplicon pyrosequencing and microbial phylogenetic analysis. The microbiota analyses for the initial cerebrospinal fluid samples from all eight infections identified a variety of bacteria and fungi, many of which did not grow in conventional culture. Detection by conventional culture did not predict the relative abundance of an organism by pyrosequencing, but in all cases, at least one bacterial taxon was detected by both conventional culture and pyrosequencing. Individual bacterial species fluctuated in relative abundance but remained above the limits of detection during infection treatment. Numerous bacterial and fungal organisms were detected in these cerebrospinal fluid shunt infections, even during and after treatment, indicating diverse and recalcitrant shunt microbiota. In evaluating cerebrospinal fluid shunt infection, fungal and anaerobic bacterial cultures should be considered in addition to aerobic bacterial cultures, and culture-independent approaches offer a promising alternative diagnostic approach. More effective treatment of cerebrospinal fluid shunt infections is needed to reduce unacceptably high rates of reinfection, and this work suggests that one effective strategy may be reduction of the diverse microbiota present in infection.

Abstract Rationale Ivacaftor is a cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) potentiator recently approved for patients with CF age 6 and older with the G551D mutation. Objectives To evaluate ivacaftor in a postapproval setting and determine mechanism of action and response of clinically relevant markers. Methods We conducted a longitudinal cohort study in 2012–2013 in G551D CF patients age 6 and older with no prior exposure to ivacaftor. Study assessments were performed at baseline, 1, 3, and 6 months after ivacaftor initiation. Substudies evaluated mucociliary clearance, β-adrenergic sweat secretion rate, gastrointestinal pH, and sputum inflammation and microbiology Measurements and Main Results A total of 151 of 153 subjects were prescribed ivacaftor and 88% completed the study through 6 months. FEV1 % predicted improved from baseline to 6 months (mean absolute change, 6.7%; P < 0.001). Similarly, body mass index improved from baseline to 6 months (mean change, 0.8 kg/m2; P < 0.001). Sweat chloride decreased from baseline to 6 months (mean change, −53.8 mmol/L; 95% confidence interval, −57.7 to −49.9; P < 0.001), reflecting augmented CFTR function. There was significant improvement in hospitalization rate (P < 0.001) and Pseudomonas aeruginosa burden (P < 0.01). Significant improvements in mucociliary clearance (P < 0.001), gastrointestinal pH (P = 0.001), and microbiome were also observed, providing clinical mechanisms underlying the therapeutic benefit of ivacaftor. Conclusions Significant clinical and physiologic improvements were observed on initiation of ivacaftor in a broad patient population, including reduced infection with P. aeruginosa. Biomarker studies substantially improve the understanding of the mechanistic consequences of CFTR modulation on pulmonary and gastrointestinal physiology.

Abstract Rationale New isolation of Pseudomonas aeruginosa (Pa) is generally treated with inhaled antipseudomonal antibiotics such as tobramycin inhalation solution (TIS). A therapeutic approach that complements traditional antimicrobial therapy by reducing the risk of pulmonary exacerbation and inflammation may ultimately prolong the time to Pa recurrence. Objectives To test the hypothesis that the addition of azithromycin to TIS in children with cystic fibrosis and early Pa decreases the risk of pulmonary exacerbation and prolongs the time to Pa recurrence. Methods The OPTIMIZE (Optimizing Treatment for Early Pseudomonas aeruginosa Infection in Cystic Fibrosis) trial was a multicenter, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, 18-month trial in children with CF, 6 months to 18 years of age, with early Pa. Azithromycin or placebo was given 3× weekly with standardized TIS. Measurements and Main Results The primary endpoint was the time to pulmonary exacerbation requiring antibiotics and the secondary endpoint was the time to Pa recurrence, in addition to other clinical and safety outcomes. A total of 221 participants (111 placebo, 110 azithromycin) out of a planned 274 were enrolled. Enrollment was stopped early by the NHLBI because the trial had reached the prespecified interim boundary for efficacy. The risk of pulmonary exacerbation was reduced by 44% in the azithromycin group as compared with the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.56; 95% confidence interval, 0.37–0.83; P = 0.004). Weight increased by 1.27 kg in the azithromycin group compared with the placebo group (95% confidence interval, 0.01–2.52; P = 0.046). No significant differences were seen in microbiological or other clinical or safety endpoints. Conclusions Azithromycin was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of pulmonary exacerbation and a sustained improvement in weight, but had no impact on microbiological outcomes in children with early Pa. Clinical trial registered with clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02054156).

Abstract Rationale Individuals with cystic fibrosis (CF) experience frequent acute pulmonary exacerbations, which lead to decreased lung function and reduced quality of life. Objectives The goal of this study was to determine if an intervention directed toward early detection of pulmonary exacerbations using home spirometry and symptom monitoring would result in slower decline in lung function than in control subjects. Methods We conducted a multicenter, randomized trial at 14 CF centers with subjects at least 14 years old. The early intervention arm subjects measured home spirometry and symptoms electronically twice per week. Sites were notified if a participant met criteria for an exacerbation and contacted participants to determine if treatment for acute exacerbation was required. Participants in the usual care arm were seen every 3 months and were asked to contact the site if they were concerned about worsening pulmonary symptoms. Measurements and Main Results The primary outcome was the 52-week change in FEV1. Secondary outcomes included time to first exacerbation and subsequent exacerbation, quality of life, and change in weight. A total of 267 patients were randomized, and the study arms were well matched at baseline. There was no significant difference between study arms in 52-week mean change in FEV1 slope (mean slope difference, 0.00 L, 95% confidence interval, −0.07 to 0.07; P = 0.99). The early intervention arm subjects detected exacerbations more frequently than usual care arm subjects (time to first exacerbation hazard ratio, 1.45; 95% confidence interval, 1.09 to 1.93; P = 0.01). Adverse events were not significantly different between treatment arms. Conclusions An intervention of home monitoring among patients with CF was able to detect more exacerbations than usual care, but this did not result in slower decline in lung function. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01104402).

In vitro studies have indicated that a molecule, VX-770, potentiates the activity of a mutant cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) protein. This trial involving persons with a copy of the mutant allele showed improvement in those who received the drug. Cystic fibrosis is a progressive lung disease 1 caused by mutations in the gene encoding the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) protein, an epithelial ion channel involved in salt and fluid transport in multiple organs, including the lung. 2 , 3 Current treatments for cystic fibrosis target the secondary effects of CFTR dysfunction. Although the median predicted survival among patients with cystic fibrosis has improved, 4 the life expectancy of these patients remains well below normal, and the treatment burden to maintain health is high, 5 indicating a need for better therapies. A strategy with potential advantages over current regimens involves improving defective CFTR . . .

Personalized medicine has received increasing attention among statisticians, computer scientists, and clinical practitioners. A major component of personalized medicine is the estimation of individualized treatment rules (ITRs). Recently, Zhao et al. proposed outcome weighted learning (OWL) to construct ITRs that directly optimize the clinical outcome. Although OWL opens the door to introducing machine learning techniques to optimal treatment regimes, it still has some problems in performance. (1) The estimated ITR of OWL is affected by a simple shift of the outcome. (2) The rule from OWL tries to keep treatment assignments that subjects actually received. (3) There is no variable selection mechanism with OWL. All of them weaken the finite sample performance of OWL. In this article, we propose a general framework, called residual weighted learning (RWL), to alleviate these problems, and hence to improve finite sample performance. Unlike OWL which weights misclassification errors by clinical outcomes, RWL weights these errors by residuals of the outcome from a regression fit on clinical covariates excluding treatment assignment. We use the smoothed ramp loss function in RWL and provide a difference of convex (d.c.) algorithm to solve the corresponding nonconvex optimization problem. By estimating residuals with linear models or generalized linear models, RWL can effectively deal with different types of outcomes, such as continuous, binary, and count outcomes. We also propose variable selection methods for linear and nonlinear rules, respectively, to further improve the performance. We show that the resulting estimator of the treatment rule is consistent. We further obtain a rate of convergence for the difference between the expected outcome using the estimated ITR and that of the optimal treatment rule. The performance of the proposed RWL methods is illustrated in simulation studies and in an analysis of cystic fibrosis clinical trial data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.