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In recent years, the pan-Arctic region has experienced increasingly extreme fire seasons. Fires in the northern high latitudes are driven by current and future climate change, lightning, fuel conditions, and human activity. In this context, conceptualizing and parameterizing current and future Arctic fire regimes will be important for fire and land management as well as understanding current and predicting future fire emissions. The objectives of this review were driven by policy questions identified by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) Working Group and posed to its Expert Group on Short-Lived Climate Forcers. This review synthesizes current understanding of the changing Arctic and boreal fire regimes, particularly as fire activity and its response to future climate change in the pan-Arctic have consequences for Arctic Council states aiming to mitigate and adapt to climate change in the north. The conclusions from our synthesis are the following. (1) Current and future Arctic fires, and the adjacent boreal region, are driven by natural (i.e. lightning) and human-caused ignition sources, including fires caused by timber and energy extraction, prescribed burning for landscape management, and tourism activities. Little is published in the scientific literature about cultural burning by Indigenous populations across the pan-Arctic, and questions remain on the source of ignitions above 70_ N in Arctic Russia. (2) Climate change is expected to make Arctic fires more likely by increasing the likelihood of extreme fire weather, increased lightning activity, and drier vegetative and ground fuel conditions. (3) To some extent, shifting agricultural land use and forest transitions from forest–steppe to steppe, tundra to taiga, and coniferous to deciduous in a warmer climate may increase and decrease open biomass burning, depending on land use in addition to climate-driven biome shifts. However, at the country and landscape scales, these relationships are not well established. (4) Current black carbon and PM2:5 emissions from wildfires above 50 and 65_ N are larger than emissions from heanthropogenic sectors of residential combustion, transportation, and flaring. Wildfire emissions have increased from 2010 to 2020, particularly above 60_ N, with 56% of black carbon emissions above 65_ N in 2020 attributed to open biomass burning – indicating how extreme the 2020 wildfire season was and how severe future Arctic wildfire seasons can potentially be. (5) What works in the boreal zones to prevent and fight wildfires may not work in the Arctic. Fire management will need to adapt to a changing climate, economic development, the Indigenous and local communities, and fragile northern ecosystems, including permafrost and peatlands. (6) Factors contributing to the uncertainty of predicting and quantifying future Arctic fire regimes include underestimation of Arctic fires by satellite systems, lack of agreement between Earth observations and official statistics, and still needed refinements of location, conditions, and previous fire return intervals on peat and permafrost landscapes. This review highlights that much research is needed in order to understand the local and regional impacts of the changing Arctic fire regime on emissions and the global climate, ecosystems, and pan-Arctic communities.

Remote sensing, or Earth Observation (EO), is increasingly used to understand Earth system dynamics and create continuous and categorical maps of biophysical properties and land cover, especially based on recent advances in machine learning (ML). ML models typically require large, spatially explicit training datasets to make accurate predictions. Training data (TD) are typically generated by digitizing polygons on high spatial-resolution imagery, by collecting in situ data, or by using pre-existing datasets. TD are often assumed to accurately represent the truth, but in practice almost always have error, stemming from (1) sample design, and (2) sample collection errors. The latter is particularly relevant for image-interpreted TD, an increasingly commonly used method due to its practicality and the increasing training sample size requirements of modern ML algorithms. TD errors can cause substantial errors in the maps created using ML algorithms, which may impact map use and interpretation. Despite these potential errors and their real-world consequences for map-based decisions, TD error is often not accounted for or reported in EO research. Here we review the current practices for collecting and handling TD. We identify the sources of TD error, and illustrate their impacts using several case studies representing different EO applications (infrastructure mapping, global surface flux estimates, and agricultural monitoring), and provide guidelines for minimizing and accounting for TD errors. To harmonize terminology, we distinguish TD from three other classes of data that should be used to create and assess ML models: training reference data, used to assess the quality of TD during data generation; validation data, used to iteratively improve models; and map reference data, used only for final accuracy assessment. We focus primarily on TD, but our advice is generally applicable to all four classes, and we ground our review in established best practices for map accuracy assessment literature. EO researchers should start by determining the tolerable levels of map error and appropriate error metrics. Next, TD error should be minimized during sample design by choosing a representative spatio-temporal collection strategy, by using spatially and temporally relevant imagery and ancillary data sources during TD creation, and by selecting a set of legend definitions supported by the data. Furthermore, TD error can be minimized during the collection of individual samples by using consensus-based collection strategies, by directly comparing interpreted training observations against expert-generated training reference data to derive TD error metrics, and by providing image interpreters with thorough application-specific training. We strongly advise that TD error is incorporated in model outputs, either directly in bias and variance estimates or, at a minimum, by documenting the sources and implications of error. TD should be fully documented and made available via an open TD repository, allowing others to replicate and assess its use. To guide researchers in this process, we propose three tiers of TD error accounting standards. Finally, we advise researchers to clearly communicate the magnitude and impacts of TD error on map outputs, with specific consideration given to the likely map audience.

Decadal trends in fire activity can reveal important human and climate-driven influences across a multitude of landscapes from croplands to savannas. We use 16 years of daily satellite observations from 2003 to 2018 to search globally for stationary temporal shifts in fire activity during the primary burning season. We focus on southwest Russia and north Australia as case study regions; both regions experienced nearly 40 d shifts over a 16 year period but in opposite directions. In southwest Russia, a major wheat-growing region, we trace the delay in post-harvest fires to several potential drivers: modernization in the agricultural system and recent droughts, followed by government restrictions on wheat exports. In north Australia, prescribed burns in the early dry season are a key practice in Aboriginal fire management of savannas, and the increasing trend of such fires has limited the size and extent of fast-spreading late dry season fires, thereby shifting overall fire activity earlier. In both regions, human action, through controlling fire ignition and extent, is an important driver of the temporal shifts in fire activity with climate as both a harbinger and an amplifier of human-induced changes.

The presented study quantifies the proportion of stand-replacement fires in Russian forests through the integrated analysis of Landsat and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data products. We employed 30 m Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus derived tree canopy cover and decadal (2001-2012) forest cover loss (Hansen et al 2013 High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change Science 342 850-53) to identify forest extent and disturbance. These data were overlaid with 1 km MODIS active fire (earthdata.nasa.gov/data/near-real-time-data/firms) and 500 m regional burned area data (Loboda et al 2007 Regionally adaptable dNBR-based algorithm for burned area mapping from MODIS data Remote Sens. Environ. 109 429-42 and Loboda et al 2011 Mapping burned area in Alaska using MODIS data: a data limitations-driven modification to the regional burned area algorithm Int. J. Wildl. Fire 20 487-96) to differentiate stand-replacement disturbances due to fire versus other causes. Total stand replacement forest fire area within the Russian Federation from 2002 to 2011 was estimated to be 17.6 million ha (Mha). The smallest stand-replacement fire loss occurred in 2004 (0.4 Mha) and the largest annual loss in 2003 (3.3 Mha). Of total burned area within forests, 33.6% resulted in stand-replacement. Light conifer stands comprised 65% of all non-stand-replacement and 79% of all stand-replacement fire in Russia. Stand-replacement area for the study period is estimated to be two times higher than the reported logging area. Results of this analysis can be used with historical fire regime estimations to develop effective fire management policy, increase accuracy of carbon calculations, and improve fire behavior and climate change modeling efforts.

Human-induced fires play a crucial role in transforming landscapes and contributing to greenhouse gas emissions. Russia is a country where human-induced fires are widespread and form distinctive spring and summer burning cycles. However, spring fires are not well documented and it is unclear which land-cover types are associated with the spread of spring fires. Using Sentinel-2 optical satellite imagery, a wall-to-wall spring burned area data set for 1 January to 15 May 2020 was created for Russia (excluding the Arctic) using a participatory crowdsourcing digitizing approach on an online platform developed specifically for this application. The 2020 spring fire product had a producer accuracy of 85% and user accuracy of 92%. Approximately 13.38 million ha, comprising 1.8% of the study area, were mapped as burned, with the majority of the 2020 spring burned areas in Siberia. Our spring-fire product revealed five times more burned area estimates compared to the burned area estimates from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) MCD64 product. We also found high variability of burned area per active fire pixel across regions of Russia, when compared to MODIS and visible infrared imaging radiometer suite active fire data. Spring fires started to increase from the end of February and reached their maximum by the end of March through the middle of April. Spring fires were associated with arable lands and grasslands as land-cover types, except Siberia, where spring fires were most common in deciduous and needle-leaved forests, followed by arable lands. While spring fires were associated with croplands and grasslands, an estimate for Central Russia showed approximately 75% of spring fires occurred on abandoned agricultural lands. Our study demonstrated the suitability of optical Sentinel-2 imagery for spring fire mapping and the great utility of a participatory mapping approach for fast and accurate mapping as well as engagement of the community.

Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) is a critical variable influencing wildfire behavior, ignition potential, and suppression difficulty, yet it remains challenging to monitor consistently across landscapes due to sparse field observations, rapid temporal changes, and vegetation heterogeneity. This study presents a comprehensive review of satellite-based approaches for estimating LFMC, with emphasis on methods applicable to New Zealand, where wildfire risk is increasing due to climate change. We assess the suitability of different remote sensing data sources, including multispectral, thermal, and microwave sensors, and evaluate their integration for characterizing both LFMC and fuel types. Particular attention is given to the trade-offs between data resolution, revisit frequency, and spectral sensitivity. As knowledge of fuel type and structure is critical for understanding wildfire behavior and LFMC, the review also outlines key limitations in existing land cover products for fuel classification and highlights opportunities for improving fuel mapping using remotely sensed data. This review lays the groundwork for the development of an operational LFMC prediction system in New Zealand, with broader relevance to fire-prone regions globally. Such a system would support real-time wildfire risk assessment and enhance decision-making in fire management and emergency response.

The Pushbroom Imager for Cloud and Aerosol Research and Development (PICARD) visible through shortwave infrared imaging spectrometer was developed to carry a calibration laboratory environment to high altitudes, while also providing high-dynamic-range bright cloud-top radiance measurements across a field of view just under 50 degrees. The in-flight performance of this new spectroradiometer was validated in comparison to multiple reference data sources and targets using imagery collected aboard NASA’s ER-2 high-altitude aircraft during the Western Diversity Time Series (WDTS) airborne science campaign in April 2023 and the September 2024 Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, and ocean Ecosystem (PACE) Postlaunch Airborne eXperiment (PACE-PAX), both operating out of southern California. PICARD measurements from flights over Railroad Valley Playa, Nevada, USA, were compared to high-resolution radiance spectra of the dry lakebed provided by the Radiometric Calibration Network (RadCalNet) Working Group. Direct comparison to satellite cloud radiometry was enabled by the ER-2 flying in coordination with simultaneous overpasses of the Terra, Aqua, and NOAA-20 Earth-observing satellites during WDTS and with the PACE observatory during PACE-PAX. To account for large spectral differences between incandescent laboratory sources and solar illumination, PICARD calibration relies on measurements using the Goddard Laser for Absolute Measurements of Radiance (GLAMR) to characterize and minimize spectral stray light from the instrument’s twin Offner grating spectrometers. Good agreement in comparison to reference measurements demonstrates PICARD’s ability to provide imagery for environmental science or for testing new sensor designs and retrieval algorithms for cloud and aerosol research with verified laboratory calibrations at high altitudes.

The increasing availability of very-high resolution (VHR; <2 m) imagery has the potential to enable agricultural monitoring at increased resolution and cadence, particularly when used in combination with widely available moderate-resolution imagery. However, scaling limitations exist at the regional level due to big data volumes and processing constraints. Here, we demonstrate the Fusion Approach for Remotely-Sensed Mapping of Agriculture (FARMA), using a suite of open source software capable of efficiently characterizing time-series field-scale statistics across large geographical areas at VHR resolution. We provide distinct implementation examples in Vietnam and Senegal to demonstrate the approach using WorldView VHR optical, Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar, and Sentinel-2 and Sentinel-3 optical imagery. This distributed software is open source and entirely scalable, enabling large area mapping even with modest computing power. FARMA provides the ability to extract and monitor sub-hectare fields with multisensor raster signals, which previously could only be achieved at scale with large computational resources. Implementing FARMA could enhance predictive yield models by delineating boundaries and tracking productivity of smallholder fields, enabling more precise food security observations in low and lower-middle income countries.

A challenge in addressing climate risk in developing countries is that many regions have extremely limited formal data sets, so for these regions, people must rely on technologies like remote sensing for solutions. However, this means the necessary formal weather data to design and validate remote sensing solutions do not exist. Therefore, many projects use farmers’ reported perceptions and recollections of climate risk events, such as drought. However, if these are used to design risk management interventions such as insurance, there may be biases and limitations which could potentially lead to a problematic product. To better understand the value and validity of farmer perceptions, this paper explores two related questions: (1) Is there evidence that farmers reporting data have any information about actual drought events, and (2) is there evidence that it is valuable to address recollection and perception issues when using farmer-reported data? We investigated these questions by analyzing index insurance, in which remote sensing products trigger payments to farmers during loss years. Our case study is perhaps the largest participatory farmer remote sensing insurance project in Ethiopia. We tested the cross-consistency of farmer-reported seasonal vulnerabilities against the years reported as droughts by independent satellite data sources. We found evidence that farmer-reported events are independently reflected in multiple remote sensing datasets, suggesting that there is legitimate information in farmer reporting. Repeated community-based meetings over time and aggregating independent village reports over space lead to improved predictions, suggesting that it may be important to utilize methods to address potential biases.

Underground smouldering fires resurfaced early in 2020, contributing to the unprecedented wildfires that tore through the Arctic this spring and summer. An international effort is needed to manage a changing fire regime in the vulnerable Arctic.