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Scenario planning (SP) has been increasingly utilized by water managers and planners in the 21st century as climate and other uncertainties have challenged traditional planning approaches. This paper discusses the potential for scenario planning processes in the Colorado River Basin in the southwestern United States to build collective understanding of compound and cascading risks, and to identify possible solutions at multiple scales. Under the Colorado River Conversations Project, we convened a series of conferences and scenario planning workshops over the past 3 years to explore the potential to enhance the use of social and physical sciences in river management, and to broaden the community of people and entities engaged in discussions about managing the Colorado River. Working with a group of thirty water managers and other interested parties representing all 7 basin states, several Tribes, NGO’s and Mexico, we used a participatory, mixed-methods approach to scenario planning that identified multiple drivers of change and developed eight science-based storylines from the intersection of these drivers. The development of the storylines and the subsequent conversations with participants about impacts and solutions resulted in a framework for understanding low probability-high consequence climate and other risks across the Colorado River Basin. We highlight three lessons that speak to the value and role of SP for fostering collaboration and creativity. These lessons include: (1) the importance of process in SP in fostering deliberate community building across sectors and geographies; (2) identifying challenges with engaging with uncertainty, complexity, and risk; and (3) determining what these findings mean for future SP in the Colorado River Basin and beyond.

This research documents spatial and temporal patterns of effluent uptake by riparian trees through development of a new and innovative application for dendrochronology, specifically dendrochemistry. The rare-earth element (REE) gadolinium (Gd) is a known micro-pollutant in its anthropogenic form and enters streams from wastewater treatment plants. Anthropogenic Gd was first used in select medical procedures in 1988 and has since been used as a contrast agent for medical imaging. It is naturally flushed from the body following procedures and is subsequently discharged via treatment plants into waterways. Riparian trees that utilize effluent-dominated surface water take up Gd, which then remains in annual growth rings. The year 1988 serves as presence/absence date stamp for Gd in tree rings, thereby making Gd an ideal marker for this dendrochronological study. Results from this study along the Upper Santa Cruz River in southeastern Arizona show levels of Gd in effluent-dominated surface flows to be elevated above the threshold that distinguishes an anthropogenic anomaly from natural GdSN abundance in freshwater, thereby confirming that anthropogenic Gd is present. Gd was found in the growth rings of cottonwood trees (Populus fremontii var. arizonica (Sarg.) Jeps.) that are growing in the floodway adjacent to the effluent-dominated portion of the stream. The presence of Gd in cottonwood annual rings confirms that the trees are utilizing effluent over the course of the growing season. Furthermore, temporal patterns of Gd concentrations in trees directly adjacent to the stream may be reflective of high-frequency changes in surface water quality. Information on the impacts of effluent quality on the chemical composition of tree rings can be a useful monitoring tool to evaluate the spatial and temporal patterns of effluent use in riparian trees and to identify high-frequency changes in surface water quality.

Azaspiracids (AZAs) are microalgal toxins that can accumulate in shellfish and lead to human intoxications. To facilitate their study and subsequent biomonitoring, purification from microalgae rather than shellfish is preferable; however, challenges remain with respect to maximizing toxin yields. The impacts of temperature, growth media, and photoperiod on cell densities and toxin production in Azadinium spinosum were investigated. Final cell densities were similar at 10 and 18 °C, while toxin cell quotas were higher (~3.5-fold) at 10 °C. A comparison of culture media showed higher cell densities and AZA cell quotas (2.5–5-fold) in f10k compared to f/2 and L1 media. Photoperiod also showed differences, with lower cell densities in the 8:16 L:D treatment, while toxin cell quotas were similar for 12:12 and 8:16 L:D treatments but slightly lower for the 16:8 L:D treatment. AZA1, -2, and -33 were detected during the exponential phase, while some known and new AZAs were only detected once the stationary phase was reached. These compounds were additionally detected in field water samples during an AZA event.

Securing environmental flows in support of freshwater biodiversity is an evolving field of practice. An example of a large-scale program dedicated to restoring environmental flows is the Columbia Basin Water Transactions Program in the Pacific Northwest region of North America, which has been restoring flows in dewatered tributary habitats for imperiled salmon species over the past decade. This paper discusses a four-tiered flow restoration accounting framework for tracking the implementation and impacts of water transactions as an effective tool for adaptive management. The flow restoration accounting framework provides compliance and flow accounting information to monitor transaction efficacy. We review the implementation of the flow restoration accounting framework monitoring framework to demonstrate (a) the extent of water transactions that have been implemented over the past decade, (b) the volumes of restored flow in meeting flow targets for restoring habitat for anadromous fish species, and (c) an example of aquatic habitat enhancement that resulted from Columbia Basin Water Transactions Program investments. Project results show that from 2002 to 2015, the Columbia Basin Water Transactions Program has completed more than 450 water rights transactions, restoring approximately 1.59 million megaliters to date, with an additional 10.98 million megaliters of flow protected for use over the next 100 years. This has resulted in the watering of over 2414 stream kilometers within the Columbia Basin. We conclude with a discussion of the insights gained through the implementation of the flow restoration accounting framework. Understanding the approach and efficacy of a monitoring framework applied across a large river basin can be informative to emerging flow-restoration and adaptive management efforts in areas of conservation concern.

Broad relationships between weather and human health have long been recognized, and there is currently a large body of research examining the impacts of climate change on human health. Much of the literature in this area examines climate-health relationships at global or regional levels, incorporating mostly generalized responses of pathogens and vectors to broad changes in climate. Far less research has been done to understand the direct and indirect climate-mediated processes involved at finer scales. Thus, some studies simplify the role of climate and may over- or under-estimate the potential response, while others have begun to highlight the subtle and complex role for climate that is contingent on other relevant processes occurring in natural and social environments. These fundamental processes need to be understood to determine the effects of past, current and future climate variation and change on human health. We summarize the principal climate variables and climate-dependent processes that are believed to impact human health across a representative set of diseases, along with key uncertainties in these relationships. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]

On-campus admissions events are the secret weapon that colleges and universities use to convince students to apply and enroll. On-campus events vary depending on the size, location, and type of institution; they include campus visitations, open houses, preview days, scholarship events, admitted student events, and summer yield events. These events take months to plan, and admissions staff members spend endless hours ensuring that event details are executed efficiently and effectively. The purposes of this article are to identify four challenges institutions must overcome when planning and implementing on-campus admissions events and to provide specific suggestions for addressing these challenges in a proactive manner. The four challenges are: (1) scheduling around conflicting events; (2) marketing and advertising efforts; (3) budgetary constraints and cost concerns; and (4) involving faculty and academic department staff. Certain key components can help ensure admissions events' success, including the avoidance of problems through careful planning.

Using respective strengths of the biological, physical, and social sciences, we are developing an online decision support tool, the Santa Cruz Watershed Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SCWEPM), to help promote the use of information relevant to water allocation and land management in a binational watershed along the U.S.-Mexico border. The SCWEPM will include an ES valuation system within a suite of linked regional driver-response models and will use a multicriteria scenario-evaluation framework that builds on GIS analysis and spatially-explicit models that characterize important ecological, economic, and societal endpoints and consequences that are sensitive to climate patterns, regional water budgets, and regional LULC change in the SCW.

Competition over freshwater resources is increasing at local and global scales. Growing urban and suburban centers utilize surface and groundwater resources to meet municipal, industrial, and agricultural demands, often at the expense of riparian ecosystems. Paradoxically, those same urban centers produce a significant volume of treated effluent that can be reused to restore and sustain riparian systems. Use of effluent as a source of water for the environment raises important questions about the benefits and impacts of effluent on riparian functions and ecosystem services, particularly in the context of climate change and drought conditions. This dissertation addresses knowledge gaps surrounding riparian change and resilience along the effluent-dominated Upper Santa Cruz River in southern Arizona. Appendix A investigates whether the Netleaf hackberry (Celtis laevigata var. reticulata) tree can provide accurate information on historic changes in climatic and hydrological conditions. Results indicate that hackberry trees do record climate-related stress in annual ring-width patterns and can therefore provide a historic frame of reference against which to compare current and future changes in riparian conditions. Appendix B documents spatial and temporal patterns of effluent uptake by Fremont cottonwood trees (Populus fremontii) through development of a new application for dendrochronology, specifically dendrochemistry. Results show that annual tree rings contain temporally variable concentrations of a micropollutant found only in effluent and may have the potential to record spatial and temporal patterns of effluent dispersion in riparian ecosystems. Appendix C investigates the complex interactions of ecohydrological conditions that led to a riparian mortality event along the Upper Santa Cruz River in 2005. Effluent is shown to contribute to riparian vegetation expansion, but also, due to its consistent delivery of nutrients and water, homogenize the system and ultimately diminish its resilience to perturbations and stress. Results highlight the paradoxical nature of effluent as both a contributor to riparian growth and a potential impediment to riparian function. This paradox can be resolved through a well-defined effluent impact monitoring and assessment program that incorporates historic information as well as current trends to detect significant changes in ecosystem functions and services.

The Indigenous experience of colonization in the Americas presents a significant loss of cultural information. This study seeks to contribute to the decolonization of Anishinaabeg people in an overall effort toward healing. Following the advice of the Seven Fires Prophecies, this research is a manifestation of a youth seeking out the knowledge of Anishinaabeg Elders in order to find the path which leads to the Eighth and final fire. The path sought is known in prophecy to lead to minobimaadiziwin, the Anishinaabeg concept of the good life. This study explores minobimaadiziwin as it is perceived by six respected speakers of the Anishinaabe language. This research employed a qualitative approach and engaged Anishinaabe methodologies. In-depth interviews were used to better understand the fluid process of minobimaadiziwin. Minobimaadiziwin is a living process. Its compartmentalization is beyond the capacity of any research endeavor. Six major themes emerged that contribute to the body of written knowledge calling attention to the inherent validity of Anishinaabeg ways of knowing regardless of any hierarchy of knowledge systems: Minobimaadiziwin as Relational, Natural Law, Anishinaabemowin (the Anishinaabe language), the Anishinaabe Educative Process of Minobimaadiziwin, Gifts and Helpers, and Change.