Explore the vast range of titles available.

Forest ecosystems depend on their capacity to withstand and recover from natural and anthropogenic perturbations (that is, their resilience) 1 . Experimental evidence of sudden increases in tree mortality is raising concerns about variation in forest resilience 2 , yet little is known about how it is evolving in response to climate change. Here we integrate satellite-based vegetation indices with machine learning to show how forest resilience, quantified in terms of critical slowing down indicators 3 – 5 , has changed during the period 2000–2020. We show that tropical, arid and temperate forests are experiencing a significant decline in resilience, probably related to increased water limitations and climate variability. By contrast, boreal forests show divergent local patterns with an average increasing trend in resilience, probably benefiting from warming and CO 2 fertilization, which may outweigh the adverse effects of climate change. These patterns emerge consistently in both managed and intact forests, corroborating the existence of common large-scale climate drivers. Reductions in resilience are statistically linked to abrupt declines in forest primary productivity, occurring in response to slow drifting towards a critical resilience threshold. Approximately 23% of intact undisturbed forests, corresponding to 3.32 Pg C of gross primary productivity, have already reached a critical threshold and are experiencing a further degradation in resilience. Together, these signals reveal a widespread decline in the capacity of forests to withstand perturbation that should be accounted for in the design of land-based mitigation and adaptation plans.

A hydraulic corollary to Darcy’s law is used to predict the characteristics of plants that will survive during drought in a warmer climate. This indicates that forest trees will need to be shorter and more drought-tolerant to survive in the future. Drought and heat-induced tree mortality is accelerating in many forest biomes as a consequence of a warming climate, resulting in a threat to global forests unlike any in recorded history 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 . Forests store the majority of terrestrial carbon, thus their loss may have significant and sustained impacts on the global carbon cycle 11 , 12 . We use a hydraulic corollary to Darcy’s law, a core principle of vascular plant physiology 13 , to predict characteristics of plants that will survive and die during drought under warmer future climates. Plants that are tall with isohydric stomatal regulation, low hydraulic conductance, and high leaf area are most likely to die from future drought stress. Thus, tall trees of old-growth forests are at the greatest risk of loss, which has ominous implications for terrestrial carbon storage. This application of Darcy’s law indicates today’s forests generally should be replaced by shorter and more xeric plants, owing to future warmer droughts and associated wildfires and pest attacks. The Darcy’s corollary also provides a simple, robust framework for informing forest management interventions needed to promote the survival of current forests. Given the robustness of Darcy’s law for predictions of vascular plant function, we conclude with high certainty that today’s forests are going to be subject to continued increases in mortality rates that will result in substantial reorganization of their structure and carbon storage.

Global forests are experiencing rising temperatures and more severe droughts, with consistently dire forecasts for negative future impacts. Current research on the physiological mechanisms underlying drought impacts is focused on the water- and carbon-associated mechanisms. The role of nutrients is notably missing from this research agenda. Here, we investigate what role, if any, forest nutrition plays for survival and recovery of forests during and after drought. High nutrient availability may play a detrimental role in drought survival due to preferential biomass allocation aboveground that (1) predispose plants to hydraulic constraints limiting photosynthesis and promoting hydraulic failure, (2) increases carbon costs during periods of carbon starvation, and (3) promote biotic attack due to low tissue carbon: nitrogen (C: N). When nutrient uptake occurs during drought, high nutrient availability can increase water use efficiency thus minimizing negative feedbacks between carbon and nutrient balance. Nutrients are released after drought ceases, which might promote faster recovery but the temporal dynamics of microbial immobilization and nutrient leaching have a significant impact on nutrient availability. We provide a framework for understanding nutrient impacts on drought survival that allows a more complete analysis of forest ecosystem responses.

Recent decades have been characterized by increasing temperatures worldwide, resulting in an exponential climb in vapor pressure deficit (VPD). VPD has been identified as an increasingly important driver of plant functioning in terrestrial biomes and has been established as a major contributor in recent drought-induced plant mortality independent of other drivers associated with climate change. Despite this, few studies have isolated the physiological response of plant functioning to high VPD, thus limiting our understanding and ability to predict future impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. An abundance of evidence suggests that stomatal conductance declines under high VPD and transpiration increases in most species up until a given VPD threshold, leading to a cascade of subsequent impacts including reduced photosynthesis and growth, and higher risks of carbon starvation and hydraulic failure. Incorporation of photosynthetic and hydraulic traits in ‘next-generation’ land-surface models has the greatest potential for improved prediction of VPD responses at the plant- and global-scale, and will yield more mechanistic simulations of plant responses to a changing climate. By providing a fully integrated framework and evaluation of the impacts of high VPD on plant function, improvements in forecasting and long-term projections of climate impacts can be made.

Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) is the basis of vegetation growth and food production globally1 and plays a critical role in regulating atmospheric CO2 through its impact on ecosystem carbon balance. Even though higher CO2 concentrations in future decades can increase GPP2, low soil water availability, heat stress and disturbances associated with droughts could reduce the benefits of such CO2 fertilization. Here we analysed outputs of 13 Earth system models to show an increasingly stronger impact on GPP by extreme droughts than by mild and moderate droughts over the twenty-first century. Due to a dramatic increase in the frequency of extreme droughts, the magnitude of globally averaged reductions in GPP associated with extreme droughts was projected to be nearly tripled by the last quarter of this century (2075–2099) relative to that of the historical period (1850–1999) under both high and intermediate GHG emission scenarios. By contrast, the magnitude of GPP reductions associated with mild and moderate droughts was not projected to increase substantially. Our analysis indicates a high risk of extreme droughts to the global carbon cycle with atmospheric warming; however, this risk can be potentially mitigated by positive anomalies of GPP associated with favourable environmental conditions.

Patterns, mechanisms, projections, and consequences of tree mortality and associated broad-scale forest die-off due to drought accompanied by warmer temperatures-\"hotter drought\", an emerging characteristic of the Anthropocene-are the focus of rapidly expanding literature. Despite recent observational, experimental, and modeling studies suggesting increased vulnerability of trees to hotter drought and associated pests and pathogens, substantial debate remains among research, management and policy-making communities regarding future tree mortality risks. We summarize key mortality-relevant findings, differentiating between those implying lesser versus greater levels of vulnerability. Evidence suggesting lesser vulnerability includes forest benefits of elevated [CO 2 ] and increased water-use efficiency; observed and modeled increases in forest growth and canopy greening; widespread increases in woody-plant biomass, density, and extent; compensatory physiological, morphological, and genetic mechanisms; dampening ecological feedbacks; and potential mitigation by forest management. In contrast, recent studies document more rapid mortality under hotter drought due to negative tree physiological responses and accelerated biotic attacks. Additional evidence suggesting greater vulnerability includes rising background mortality rates; projected increases in drought frequency, intensity, and duration; limitations of vegetation models such as inadequately represented mortality processes; warming feedbacks from die-off; and wildfire synergies. Grouping these findings we identify ten contrasting perspectives that shape the vulnerability debate but have not been discussed collectively. We also present a set of global vulnerability drivers that are known with high confidence: (1) droughts eventually occur everywhere; (2) warming produces hotter droughts; (3) atmospheric moisture demand increases nonlinearly with temperature during drought; (4) mortality can occur faster in hotter drought, consistent with fundamental physiology; (5) shorter droughts occur more frequently than longer droughts and can become lethal under warming, increasing the frequency of lethal drought nonlinearly; and (6) mortality happens rapidly relative to growth intervals needed for forest recovery. These high-confidence drivers, in concert with research supporting greater vulnerability perspectives, support an overall viewpoint of greater forest vulnerability globally. We surmise that mortality vulnerability is being discounted in part due to difficulties in predicting threshold responses to extreme climate events. Given the profound ecological and societal implications of underestimating global vulnerability to hotter drought, we highlight urgent challenges for research, management, and policy-making communities.

Discrete-element modelling has been used to investigate the micro mechanics of one-dimensional compression. One-dimensional compression is modelled in three dimensions using an oedometer and a large number of particles, and without the use of agglomerates. The fracture of a particle is governed by the octahedral shear stress within the particle due to the multiple contacts and a Weibull distribution of strengths. Different fracture mechanisms are considered, and the influence of the distribution of fragments produced for each fracture on the global particle size distribution and the slope of the normal compression line is investigated. Using the discrete-element method, compression is related to the evolution of a fractal distribution of particles. The compression index is found to be solely a function of the strengths of the particles as a function of size.

Aim Increased atmospheric nitrogen deposition may have profound effects on tree carbon allocation dynamics. However, a comprehensive understanding of how nitrogen (N) enrichment influences carbon (C) allocation across plant functional processes and tree organs in individual trees remains elusive. Location Global forest ecosystems. Time period 1990–2018. Major taxa studied Trees. Methods We compiled data from 75 N addition experiments and conducted a meta‐analysis to evaluate the responses of C source (photosynthesis), sinks (growth and respiration) and storage (non‐structural carbohydrate concentrations) in different tree organs (foliage, above‐ground wood and roots) to N enrichment. Results N enrichment significantly enhanced C supply via photosynthesis (+39.6%, n = 128). C allocation to growth (biomass increment/production) significantly increased in foliage (+15.9%, n = 68) and above‐ground wood (+31.8%, n = 64; bole, branch, stem and/or twig) with increasing N availability, but not in roots, whereas allocation increased in roots via increasing fine root turnover rate (+22.6%, n = 11). N fertilization significantly increased C allocation to respiration in above‐ground wood (+46.6%, n = 12) and roots (+5.5%, n = 57), but not in foliage. N addition decreased non‐structural carbohydrate (NSC) concentrations in foliage (−5.4%, n = 16) and roots (−5.0%, n = 21), but increased NSC in above‐ground wood (+6.1%, n = 22). In addition, N enrichment effects were strongly affected by moderator variables. Main conclusions Our results demonstrate that N addition increased C allocation to growth and respiration more strongly than C allocation to NSC storage, and increased C allocation to above‐ground parts more strongly than to below‐ground parts. Our results are useful for better understanding the response of tree functional processes at organ level to N enrichment. The existing data also reveal that more long‐term experimental studies on mature trees in tropical and boreal forests are urgently needed to provide a basis for forecasting tree responses to N enrichment at the global scale.

The aim of this study is to demonstrate the use of tetrahedral clumps to model scaled railway ballast using the discrete element method (DEM). In experimental triaxial tests, the peak friction angles for scaled ballast are less sensitive to the confining pressure when compared to full-sized ballast. This is presumed to be due to the size effect on particle strength, whereby smaller particles are statistically stronger and exhibit less abrasion. To investigate this in DEM, the ballast is modelled using clumps with breakable asperities to produce the correct volumetric deformation. The effects of the quantity and properties of these asperities are investigated, and it is shown that the strength affects the macroscopic shear strength at both high and low confining pressures, while the effects of the number of asperities diminishes with increasing confining pressure due to asperity breakage. It is also shown that changing the number of asperities only affects the peak friction angle but not the ultimate friction angle by comparing the angles of repose of samples with different numbers of asperities.