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Principal components analysis, PCA, is a statistical method commonly used in population genetics to identify structure in the distribution of genetic variation across geographical location and ethnic background. However, while the method is often used to inform about historical demographic processes, little is known about the relationship between fundamental demographic parameters and the projection of samples onto the primary axes. Here I show that for SNP data the projection of samples onto the principal components can be obtained directly from considering the average coalescent times between pairs of haploid genomes. The result provides a framework for interpreting PCA projections in terms of underlying processes, including migration, geographical isolation, and admixture. I also demonstrate a link between PCA and Wright's f(st) and show that SNP ascertainment has a largely simple and predictable effect on the projection of samples. Using examples from human genetics, I discuss the application of these results to empirical data and the implications for inference.

Gil McVean and Iain Mathieson report an analysis of the differential effects of population stratification on rare and common variants within association studies. They find that rare variants may show stronger stratification in some situations and that this is not corrected for by current structure methods, suggesting the need for the development of new statistical methods. Well-powered genome-wide association studies, now made possible through advances in technology and large-scale collaborative projects, promise to characterize the contribution of rare variants to complex traits and disease. However, while population structure is a known confounder of association studies, it remains unknown whether methods developed to control stratification are equally effective for rare variants. Here, we demonstrate that rare variants can show a stratification that is systematically different from, and typically stronger than, common variants, and this is not necessarily corrected by existing methods. We show that the same process leads to inflation for load-based tests and can obscure signals at truly associated variants. Furthermore, we show that populations can display spatial structure in rare variants, even when Wright's fixation index F ST is low, but that allele frequency–dependent metrics of allele sharing can reveal localized stratification. These results underscore the importance of collecting and integrating spatial information in the genetic analysis of complex traits.

Inherited genetic variation contributes to individual risk for many complex diseases and is increasingly being used for predictive patient stratification. Previous work has shown that genetic factors are not equally relevant to human traits across age and other contexts, though the reasons for such variation are not clear. Here, we introduce methods to infer the form of the longitudinal relationship between genetic relative risk for disease and age and to test whether all genetic risk factors behave similarly. We use a proportional hazards model within an interval-based censoring methodology to estimate age-varying individual variant contributions to genetic relative risk for 24 common diseases within the British ancestry subset of UK Biobank, applying a Bayesian clustering approach to group variants by their relative risk profile over age and permutation tests for age dependency and multiplicity of profiles. We find evidence for age-varying relative risk profiles in nine diseases, including hypertension, skin cancer, atherosclerotic heart disease, hypothyroidism and calculus of gallbladder, several of which show evidence, albeit weak, for multiple distinct profiles of genetic relative risk. The predominant pattern shows genetic risk factors having the greatest relative impact on risk of early disease, with a monotonic decrease over time, at least for the majority of variants, although the magnitude and form of the decrease varies among diseases. As a consequence, for diseases where genetic relative risk decreases over age, genetic risk factors have stronger explanatory power among younger populations, compared to older ones. We show that these patterns cannot be explained by a simple model involving the presence of unobserved covariates such as environmental factors. We discuss possible models that can explain our observations and the implications for genetic risk prediction.

The origin and fate of new mutations within species is the fundamental process underlying evolution. However, while much attention has been focused on characterizing the presence, frequency, and phenotypic impact of genetic variation, the evolutionary histories of most variants are largely unexplored. We have developed a nonparametric approach for estimating the date of origin of genetic variants in large-scale sequencing data sets. The accuracy and robustness of the approach is demonstrated through simulation. Using data from two publicly available human genomic diversity resources, we estimated the age of more than 45 million single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the human genome and release the Atlas of Variant Age as a public online database. We characterize the relationship between variant age and frequency in different geographical regions and demonstrate the value of age information in interpreting variants of functional and selective importance. Finally, we use allele age estimates to power a rapid approach for inferring the ancestry shared between individual genomes and to quantify genealogical relationships at different points in the past, as well as to describe and explore the evolutionary history of modern human populations.

Exponentially increasing amounts of unprocessed bacterial and viral genomic sequence data are stored in the global archives. The ability to query these data for sequence search terms would facilitate both basic research and applications such as real-time genomic epidemiology and surveillance. However, this is not possible with current methods. To solve this problem, we combine knowledge of microbial population genomics with computational methods devised for web search to produce a searchable data structure named BItsliced Genomic Signature Index (BIGSI). We indexed the entire global corpus of 447,833 bacterial and viral whole-genome sequence datasets using four orders of magnitude less storage than previous methods. We applied our BIGSI search function to rapidly find resistance genes MCR-1, MCR-2, and MCR-3, determine the host-range of 2,827 plasmids, and quantify antibiotic resistance in archived datasets. Our index can grow incrementally as new (unprocessed or assembled) sequence datasets are deposited and can scale to millions of datasets.The global set of bacterial and viral sequences can be rapidly searched using a data structure inspired by web-search algorithms.

Large whole-genome sequencing projects have provided access to much rare variation in human populations, which is highly informative about population structure and recent demography. Here, we show how the age of rare variants can be estimated from patterns of haplotype sharing and how these ages can be related to historical relationships between populations. We investigate the distribution of the age of variants occurring exactly twice (ƒ(2) variants) in a worldwide sample sequenced by the 1000 Genomes Project, revealing enormous variation across populations. The median age of haplotypes carrying ƒ(2) variants is 50 to 160 generations across populations within Europe or Asia, and 170 to 320 generations within Africa. Haplotypes shared between continents are much older with median ages for haplotypes shared between Europe and Asia ranging from 320 to 670 generations. The distribution of the ages of ƒ(2) haplotypes is informative about their demography, revealing recent bottlenecks, ancient splits, and more modern connections between populations. We see the effect of selection in the observation that functional variants are significantly younger than nonfunctional variants of the same frequency. This approach is relatively insensitive to mutation rate and complements other nonparametric methods for demographic inference.

Inferring the nature and magnitude of selection is an important problem in many biological contexts. Typically when estimating a selection coefficient for an allele, it is assumed that samples are drawn from a panmictic population and that selection acts uniformly across the population. However, these assumptions are rarely satisfied. Natural populations are almost always structured, and selective pressures are likely to act differentially. Inference about selection ought therefore to take account of structure. We do this by considering evolution in a simple lattice model of spatial population structure. We develop a hidden Markov model based maximum-likelihood approach for estimating the selection coefficient in a single population from time series data of allele frequencies. We then develop an approximate extension of this to the structured case to provide a joint estimate of migration rate and spatially varying selection coefficients. We illustrate our method using classical data sets of moth pigmentation morph frequencies, but it has wide applications in settings ranging from ecology to human evolution.

Polygenic scores (PGSs) are individual-level measures that aggregate the genome-wide genetic predisposition to a given trait. As PGS have predominantly been developed using European-ancestry samples, trait prediction using such European ancestry-derived PGS is less accurate in non-European ancestry individuals. Although there has been recent progress in combining multiple PGS trained on distinct populations, the problem of how to maximize performance given a multiple-ancestry cohort is largely unexplored. Here, we investigate the effect of sample size and ancestry composition on PGS performance for fifteen traits in UK Biobank. For some traits, PGS estimated using a relatively small African-ancestry training set outperformed, on an African-ancestry test set, PGS estimated using a much larger European-ancestry only training set. We observe similar, but not identical, results when considering other minority-ancestry groups within UK Biobank. Our results emphasise the importance of targeted data collection from underrepresented groups in order to address existing disparities in PGS performance. There are challenges with transferring genetic risk scores from ancestry in which they were generated to another. Here, the authors investigate the use of multi-ancestry versus single-ancestry training sets to construct polygenic scores and find that the optimal strategy varies across traits.

Genome-wide association studies are set to become the method of choice for uncovering the genetic basis of human diseases. A central challenge in this area is the development of powerful multipoint methods that can detect causal variants that have not been directly genotyped. We propose a coherent analysis framework that treats the problem as one involving missing or uncertain genotypes. Central to our approach is a model-based imputation method for inferring genotypes at observed or unobserved SNPs, leading to improved power over existing methods for multipoint association mapping. Using real genome-wide association study data, we show that our approach (i) is accurate and well calibrated, (ii) provides detailed views of associated regions that facilitate follow-up studies and (iii) can be used to validate and correct data at genotyped markers. A notable future use of our method will be to boost power by combining data from genome-wide scans that use different SNP sets.

Gerton Lunter and colleagues report Platypus software, which combines a haplotype-based multi-sample variant caller with local sequence assembly in a Bayesian statistical framework. They demonstrate applications to exome and whole-genome data sets, to the identification de novo mutations in parent-offspring trios and to the genotyping of HLA loci. High-throughput DNA sequencing technology has transformed genetic research and is starting to make an impact on clinical practice. However, analyzing high-throughput sequencing data remains challenging, particularly in clinical settings where accuracy and turnaround times are critical. We present a new approach to this problem, implemented in a software package called Platypus. Platypus achieves high sensitivity and specificity for SNPs, indels and complex polymorphisms by using local de novo assembly to generate candidate variants, followed by local realignment and probabilistic haplotype estimation. It is an order of magnitude faster than existing tools and generates calls from raw aligned read data without preprocessing. We demonstrate the performance of Platypus in clinically relevant experimental designs by comparing with SAMtools and GATK on whole-genome and exome-capture data, by identifying de novo variation in 15 parent-offspring trios with high sensitivity and specificity, and by estimating human leukocyte antigen genotypes directly from variant calls.