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Analysis of circulating tumour DNA could stratify cancer risk in symptomatic patients. We aimed to evaluate the performance of a methylation-based multicancer early detection (MCED) diagnostic test in symptomatic patients referred from primary care. We did a multicentre, prospective, observational study at National Health Service (NHS) hospital sites in England and Wales. Participants aged 18 or older referred with non-specific symptoms or symptoms potentially due to gynaecological, lung, or upper or lower gastrointestinal cancers were included and gave a blood sample when they attended for urgent investigation. Participants were excluded if they had a history of or had received treatment for an invasive or haematological malignancy diagnosed within the preceding 3 years, were taking cytotoxic or demethylating agents that might interfere with the test, or had participated in another study of a GRAIL MCED test. Patients were followed until diagnostic resolution or up to 9 months. Cell-free DNA was isolated and the MCED test performed blinded to the clinical outcome. MCED predictions were compared with the diagnosis obtained by standard care to establish the primary outcomes of overall positive and negative predictive value, sensitivity, and specificity. Outcomes were assessed in participants with a valid MCED test result and diagnostic resolution. SYMPLIFY is registered with ISRCTN (ISRCTN10226380) and has completed follow-up at all sites. 6238 participants were recruited between July 7 and Nov 30, 2021, across 44 hospital sites. 387 were excluded due to staff being unable to draw blood, sample errors, participant withdrawal, or identification of ineligibility after enrolment. Of 5851 clinically evaluable participants, 376 had no MCED test result and 14 had no information as to final diagnosis, resulting in 5461 included in the final cohort for analysis with an evaluable MCED test result and diagnostic outcome (368 [6·7%] with a cancer diagnosis and 5093 [93·3%] without a cancer diagnosis). The median age of participants was 61·9 years (IQR 53·4–73·0), 3609 (66·1%) were female and 1852 (33·9%) were male. The MCED test detected a cancer signal in 323 cases, in whom 244 cancer was diagnosed, yielding a positive predictive value of 75·5% (95% CI 70·5–80·1), negative predictive value of 97·6% (97·1–98·0), sensitivity of 66·3% (61·2–71·1), and specificity of 98·4% (98·1–98·8). Sensitivity increased with increasing age and cancer stage, from 24·2% (95% CI 16·0–34·1) in stage I to 95·3% (88·5–98·7) in stage IV. For cases in which a cancer signal was detected among patients with cancer, the MCED test's prediction of the site of origin was accurate in 84·8% (95% CI 79·5–89·0) of cases. Sensitivity 80·4% (95% CI 66·1–90·6) and negative predictive value 99·1% (98·2–99·6) were highest for patients with symptoms mandating investigation for upper gastrointestinal cancer. This first large-scale prospective evaluation of an MCED diagnostic test in a symptomatic population demonstrates the feasibility of using an MCED test to assist clinicians with decisions regarding urgency and route of referral from primary care. Our data provide the basis for a prospective, interventional study in patients presenting to primary care with non-specific signs and symptoms. GRAIL Bio UK.

6 months of oxaliplatin-containing chemotherapy is usually given as adjuvant treatment for stage 3 colorectal cancer. We investigated whether 3 months of oxaliplatin-containing chemotherapy would be non-inferior to the usual 6 months of treatment. The SCOT study was an international, randomised, phase 3, non-inferiority trial done at 244 centres. Patients aged 18 years or older with high-risk stage II and stage III colorectal cancer underwent central randomisation with minimisation for centre, choice of regimen, sex, disease site, N stage, T stage, and the starting dose of capecitabine. Patients were assigned (1:1) to receive 3 months or 6 months of adjuvant oxaliplatin-containing chemotherapy. The chemotherapy regimens could consist of CAPOX (capecitabine and oxaliplatin) or FOLFOX (bolus and infused fluorouracil with oxaliplatin). The regimen was selected before randomisation in accordance with choices of the patient and treating physician. The primary study endpoint was disease-free survival and the non-inferiority margin was a hazard ratio of 1·13. The primary analysis was done in the intention-to-treat population and safety was assessed in patients who started study treatment. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, number ISRCTN59757862, and follow-up is continuing. 6088 patients underwent randomisation between March 27, 2008, and Nov 29, 2013. The intended treatment was FOLFOX in 1981 patients and CAPOX in 4107 patients. 3044 patients were assigned to 3 month group and 3044 were assigned to 6 month group. Nine patients in the 3 month group and 14 patients in the 6 month group did not consent for their data to be used, leaving 3035 patients in the 3 month group and 3030 patients in the 6 month group for the intention-to-treat analyses. At the cutoff date for analysis, there had been 1482 disease-free survival events, with 740 in the 3 month group and 742 in the 6 month group. 3 year disease-free survival was 76·7% (95% CI 75·1–78·2) for the 3 month group and 77·1% (75·6–78·6) for the 6 month group, giving a hazard ratio of 1·006 (0·909–1·114, test for non-inferiority p=0·012), significantly below the non-inferiority margin. Peripheral neuropathy of grade 2 or worse was more common in the 6 month group (237 [58%] of 409 patients for the subset with safety data) than in the 3 month group (103 [25%] of 420) and was long-lasting and associated with worse quality of life. 1098 serious adverse events were reported (492 reports in the 3 month group and 606 reports in the 6 month group) and 32 treatment-related deaths occurred (16 in each group). In the whole study population, 3 months of oxaliplatin-containing adjuvant chemotherapy was non-inferior to 6 months of the same therapy for patients with high-risk stage II and stage III colorectal cancer and was associated with reduced toxicity and improved quality of life. Despite the fact the study was underpowered, these data suggest that a shorter duration leads to similar survival outcomes with better quality of life and thus might represent a new standard of care. Medical Research Council, Swedish Cancer Society, NETSCC, and Cancer Research UK.

RNA-directed antisense and interference therapeutics are a promising treatment option for cancer. The demonstration of depletion of target proteins within human tumors in vivo using validated methodology will be a key to the application of this technology. Here, we present a flow cytometric-based approach to quantitatively determine protein levels in solid tumor material derived by fiber optic brushing (FOB) of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. Focusing upon the survivin protein, and its depletion by an antisense oligonucleotide (ASO) (LY2181308), we show that we can robustly identify a subpopulation of survivin positive tumor cells in FOB samples, and, moreover, detect survivin depletion in tumor samples from a patient treated with LY2181308. Survivin depletion appears to be a result of treatment with this ASO, because a tumor treated with conventional cytotoxic chemotherapy did not exhibit a decreased percentage of survivin positive cells. Our approach is likely to be broadly applicable to, and useful for, the quantification of protein levels in tumor samples obtained as part of clinical trials and studies, facilitating the proof-of-principle testing of novel targeted therapies.

BACKGROUNDThe Short Course Oncology Therapy (SCOT) study is an international, multicentre, non-inferiority randomised controlled trial assessing the efficacy, toxicity, and cost-effectiveness of 3 months (3 M) versus the usually given 6 months (6 M) of adjuvant chemotherapy in colorectal cancer.METHODSIn total, 6088 patients with fully resected high-risk stage II or stage III colorectal cancer were randomised and followed up for 3–8 years. The within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis from a UK health-care perspective is presented using the resource use data, quality of life (EQ-5D-3L), time on treatment (ToT), disease-free survival after treatment (DFS) and overall survival (OS) data. Quality-adjusted partitioned survival analysis and Kaplan–Meier Sample Average Estimator estimated QALYs and costs. Probabilistic sensitivity and subgroup analysis was undertaken.RESULTSThe 3 M arm is less costly (-£4881; 95% CI: -£6269; -£3492) and entails (non-significant) QALY gains (0.08; 95% CI: −0.086; 0.230) due to a better significant quality of life. The net monetary benefit was significantly higher in 3 M under a wide range of monetary values of a QALY. The subgroup analysis found similar results for patients in the CAPOX regimen. However, for the FOLFOX regimen, 3 M had lower QALYs than 6 M (not statistically significant).CONCLUSIONSOverall, 3 M dominates 6 M with no significant detrimental impact on QALYs. The results provide the economic case that a 3 M treatment strategy should be considered a new standard of care.

A 1-12% rate of pleural infection has been observed in patients with an indwelling pleural catheter (IPC) to manage malignant pleural effusion (MPE), leading to concern that systemic chemotherapy may increase infection risk. 1-5 This study aimed to determine whether chemotherapy increases the infection rate in patients with an IPC. Number 23 59 Mean age (years) 60 67 Males:females 11:12 34:25 Median duration IPC was in situ (days) (range) 84 (11-487) 66 (6-711) Median duration IPC was in situ in patients in whom IPC was removed prior to death 84 (11-239) 82 (30-711) No. of patients who died with IPC in situ (%) 13 (57%) 40 (68%) Average time patient received chemotherapy while IPC was in situ (days) (range) 68 (11-208) (~2.5 cycles) - Pleural infections 1 (4%) 6 (10%) Colonisation of IPC 4 (17%) 5 (8%) IPC, indwelling pleural catheter.

BackgroundThe combination of intravenous hydrocortisone and enteral fludrocortisone may reduce mortality in patients with septic shock. The optimal dose and reliability of absorption of fludrocortisone in critically ill patients are unclear.MethodsIn a multi-centre, open label, phase II randomized clinical trial, intravenous hydrocortisone alone or in combination with one of three doses of enteral fludrocortisone (50 µg, 100 µg or 200 µg daily) for 7 days was compared in patients with septic shock. The primary outcome was time to shock resolution. We conducted pharmacokinetic studies to assess absorption.ResultsOut of 153 enrolled patients, 38 (25%) received hydrocortisone alone, 42 (27%) received additional 50 µg, 36 (24%) received 100 µg and 37 (24%) received 200 µg fludrocortisone. Plasma concentrations of fludrocortisone were detected in 97% of patients at 3 h-median (interquartile range [IQR]) 261 (156–334) ng/L. There was no significant difference in the time to shock resolution between groups with median (IQR) of 3 (2.5–4.5), 3 (2–4), 3 (2–6) and 3 (2–5.5) days in the hydrocortisone alone, 50 µg, 100 µg and 200 µg fludrocortisone groups, respectively. The corresponding 28-day mortality rates were 9/38 (24%), 7/42 (17%), 4/36 (11%) and 4/37 (11%), respectively. There were no significant differences between groups with respect to, recurrence of shock, indices of organ failure or other secondary outcomes.ConclusionsEnteral fludrocortisone resulted in detectable plasma fludrocortisone concentrations in the majority of critically ill patients with septic shock, although they varied widely indicating differing absorption and bioavailability. Its addition to hydrocortisone was not associated with shorter time to shock resolution.

Quantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an overview of a collection of novel model-based analyses which aim to address key questions on the dynamics of transmission and control of nine NTDs: Chagas disease, visceral leishmaniasis, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. Several common themes resonate throughout these analyses, including: the importance of epidemiological setting on the success of interventions; targeting groups who are at highest risk of infection or re-infection; and reaching populations who are not accessing interventions and may act as a reservoir for infection,. The results also highlight the challenge of maintaining elimination ‘as a public health problem’ when true elimination is not reached. The models elucidate the factors that may be contributing most to persistence of disease and discuss the requirements for eventually achieving true elimination, if that is possible. Overall this collection presents new analyses to inform current control initiatives. These papers form a base from which further development of the models and more rigorous validation against a variety of datasets can help to give more detailed advice. At the moment, the models’ predictions are being considered as the world prepares for a final push towards control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases by 2020.

Background Visceral leishmaniasis has been targeted for elimination as a public health problem (less than 1 case per 10,000 people per year) in the Indian sub-continent by 2017. However, there is still a high degree of uncertainty about the natural history of the disease, in particular about the duration of asymptomatic infection and the proportion of asymptomatically infected individuals that develop clinical visceral leishmaniasis. Quantifying these aspects of the disease is key for guiding efforts to eliminate visceral leishmaniasis and maintaining elimination once it is reached. Methods Data from a detailed epidemiological study in Bangladesh in 2002–2004 was analysed to estimate key epidemiological parameters. The role of diagnostics in determining the probability and rate of progression to clinical disease was estimated by fitting Cox proportional hazards models. A multi-state Markov model of the natural history of visceral leishmaniasis was fitted to the data to estimate the asymptomatic infection period and the proportion of asymptomatic individuals going on to develop clinical symptoms. Results At the time of the study, individuals were taking several months to be diagnosed with visceral leishmaniasis, leading to many opportunities for ongoing transmission. The probability of progression to clinical disease was strongly associated with initial seropositivity and even more strongly with seroconversion, with most clinical symptoms developing within a year. The estimated average durations of asymptomatic infection and symptomatic infection for our model of the natural history are 147 days (95 % CI 130–166) and 140 days (95 % CI 123–160), respectively, and are significantly longer than previously reported estimates. We estimate from the data that 14.7 % (95 % CI 12.6-20.0 %) of asymptomatic individuals develop clinical symptoms—a greater proportion than previously estimated. Conclusions Extended periods of asymptomatic infection could be important for visceral leishmaniasis transmission, but this depends critically on the relative infectivity of asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals to sandflies. These estimates could be informed by similar analysis of other datasets. Our results highlight the importance of reducing times from onset of symptoms to diagnosis and treatment to reduce opportunities for transmission.

The World Health Organization recently launched its 2021-2030 roadmap, Ending the Neglect to Attain the Sustainable Development Goals , an updated call to arms to end the suffering caused by neglected tropical diseases. Modelling and quantitative analyses played a significant role in forming these latest goals. In this collection, we discuss the insights, the resulting recommendations and identified challenges of public health modelling for 13 of the target diseases: Chagas disease, dengue, gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT), lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, rabies, scabies, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), Taenia solium taeniasis/ cysticercosis, trachoma, visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and yaws. This piece reflects the three cross-cutting themes identified across the collection, regarding the contribution that modelling can make to timelines, programme design, drug development and clinical trials.