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"Mele, F"
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Probabilistic tsunami forecasting for early warning
Tsunami warning centres face the challenging task of rapidly forecasting tsunami threat immediately after an earthquake, when there is high uncertainty due to data deficiency. Here we introduce Probabilistic Tsunami Forecasting (PTF) for tsunami early warning. PTF explicitly treats data- and forecast-uncertainties, enabling alert level definitions according to any predefined level of conservatism, which is connected to the average balance of missed-vs-false-alarms. Impact forecasts and resulting recommendations become progressively less uncertain as new data become available. Here we report an implementation for near-source early warning and test it systematically by hindcasting the great 2010 M8.8 Maule (Chile) and the well-studied 2003 M6.8 Zemmouri-Boumerdes (Algeria) tsunamis, as well as all the Mediterranean earthquakes that triggered alert messages at the Italian Tsunami Warning Centre since its inception in 2015, demonstrating forecasting accuracy over a wide range of magnitudes and earthquake types.
Probabilistic tsunami forecasting (PTF) defines an approach to tsunami early warning based on uncertainty quantification, enhancing forecast accuracy and enabling rational decision making. PTF is here developed for near-source tsunami warning, and tested in hindcasting mode over a wide range of past earthquakes.
Journal Article
A completeness analysis of the National Seismic Network of Italy
We present the first detailed study of earthquake detection capabilities of the Italian National Seismic Network and of the completeness threshold of its earthquake catalog. The network in its present form started operating on 16 April 2005 and is a significant improvement over the previous networks. For our analysis, we employed the PMC method as introduced by Schorlemmer and Woessner (2008). This method does not estimate completeness from earthquake samples as traditional methods, mostly based on the linearity of earthquake size distributions. It derives detection capabilities for each station of the network and synthesizes them into maps of detection probabilities for earthquakes of a given magnitude. Thus, this method avoids the many assumptions about earthquake distributions that traditional methods make. The results show that the Italian National Seismic Network is complete at M = 2.9 for the entire territory excluding the islands of Sardinia, Pantelleria, and Lampedusa. At the M = 2.5 level, which is the reporting threshold level of the Italian Civil Protection, the network may miss events in southern parts of Apulia and the western part of Sicily. The stations are connected through many different telemetry links to the operational data center in Rome. Scenario computations show that no significant drop in completeness occurs if one of the three major links fails, indicating a well‐balanced network setup.
Journal Article
Environmental profile of sweet sorghum bioethanol in the province of Tucumán (Argentina)
ObjectivesThe objective of this study is to evaluate the environmental profile of bioethanol production from sweet sorghum (Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench) in the province of Tucumán (Argentina).MethodsThe study is carried out using the life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. The evaluated system includes the cultivation of sorghum, its transportation to the sugar mill, and the production of anhydrous ethanol. For the inventory, data recorded in field/industry activities is preferably used, supplemented by specialized publications and the Ecoinvent v3 database. The ReCiPe 2016 impact evaluation model is used to obtain the environmental profile.Results and discussionThe results show that the environmental contribution of the sorghum agricultural phase dominates all impact categories, mainly due to the use of some agrochemicals and fossil fuels. The normalization of these results highlights freshwater ecotoxicity as the most relevant category. The sensitivity analysis reveals that this category depends almost linearly on the leaching-runoff factors of the pesticides, among which chlorpyrifos prevails.ConclusionsThis study unveils the hotspots in sorghum bioethanol production, which will be used to improve the agronomic management of the crop and processing. The incorporation of sorghum as a feedstock in the existing cane-based sugar-alcohol industry allows for a significant reduction of the global warming potential, opening opportunities for future research on the subject. Therefore, the cultivation/processing of sweet sorghum is a promising alternative to reduce the environmental impact of ethanol from other sugarcane-producing regions.
Journal Article
Tumor-targeted IL2 promotes specific CD8+ T cells private clonal expansion enhancing lymphoma control
Background
L19IL2 is a clinical-stage antibody-cytokine fusion protein that has been investigated for the treatment of various cancer types. Despite its promising antitumor activity, the precise mechanism of action is still not fully understood.
Methods
In this work, we employed a
myc-
driven B-cell lymphoma murine model to demonstrate that systemic administration of L19IL2 induced a robust CD8⁺ T cell-dependent tumor regression across multiple organs without expansion of regulatory T cells.
Results
Following L19IL2 administration, intratumoral CD8
+
T cells proliferated and acquired effector and memory phenotypes, associated with private clonal expansion and enhanced killing. Moreover, the spatial behavior of peritumoral CD8
+
T cells studied by intravital microscopy demonstrated a rapid increase in tumor-directed motility and infiltration following L19IL2 administration.
Conclusions
These findings described the detailed mechanism of action of L19IL2 against B cell lymphoma and revealed for the first time the dynamic responses of peritumoral CD8
+
T cells to targeted IL2 stimulation, supporting the use of L19IL2 for patients with aggressive B cell lymphoma.
Journal Article
The 2009 L'Aquila (central Italy) MW6.3 earthquake: Main shock and aftershocks
A MW 6.3 earthquake struck on April 6, 2009 the Abruzzi region (central Italy) producing vast damage in the L'Aquila town and surroundings. In this paper we present the location and geometry of the fault system as obtained by the analysis of main shock and aftershocks recorded by permanent and temporary networks. The distribution of aftershocks, 712 selected events with ML ≥ 2.3 and 20 with ML ≥ 4.0, defines a complex, 40 km long, NW trending extensional structure. The main shock fault segment extends for 15–18 km and dips at 45° to the SW, between 10 and 2 km depth. The extent of aftershocks coincides with the surface trace of the Paganica fault, a poorly known normal fault that, after the event, has been quoted to accommodate the extension of the area. We observe a migration of seismicity to the north on an echelon fault that can rupture in future large earthquakes.
Journal Article
Advanced X-ray PIxel Detector (AXPiDe v2.0): new modular multichannel detector based on SDD available at the XAFS beamline of Elettra
This contribution will report on a detection system specially designed and developed to fulfil the needs of X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy (XAS) experiments at the XAFS beamline of the ELETTRA synchrotron. It is composed of 8 monolithic multipixel arrays of Silicon Drift Detectors (SDDs), each comprising 8 cells (3x3 mm 2 ) fabricated on 450- µ m-thick, n-type, high-purity silicon wafers, and it includes a Tungsten collimation system. This results in 64 independent cells for a total collimated area of 500 mm 2 . All arrays are connected to separate back-end electronics, and they are calibrated, aligned and summed together by the acquisition software. The system includes custom-made, ultra-low-noise front-end electronics, a dedicated acquisition system, digital filtering, and temperature control and stabilization. The sensor is optimized to operate in the energy range 3-30 keV. A dedicated acquisition software, Fluorescence Instrumentation Control Universal Software (FICUS), developed using NI LabVIEW and fully integrated with the control system of the beamline, allows the instrument performance to be controlled, fine-tuned and monitored. Accurate characterization performed at room temperature at the XAFS beamline in Elettra demonstrated very interesting results in terms of energy resolution, with a FWHM below 170 eV at the 5.9 keV Mn-K α line for the sum of all cells, a high count rate capability with an excellent peak-to-background ratio. All these specifications make it possible to collect high-data-quality XAS spectra on diluted elements embedded in heavy matrices, which can be exploited to improve the throughput of the beamline, as well as to follow slow kinetics.
Journal Article
The ground calibration of the HERMES-Pathfinder payload flight models
HERMES-Pathfinder is a space-borne mission based on a constellation of six nano-satellites flying in a low-Earth orbit. The 3U CubeSats, to be launched in early 2025, host miniaturized instruments with a hybrid Silicon Drift Detector/scintillator photodetector system, sensitive to both X-rays and gamma-rays. A seventh payload unit is installed onboard SpIRIT, an Australian-Italian nano-satellite developed by a consortium led by the University of Melbourne and launched in December 2023. The project aims at demonstrating the feasibility of Gamma-Ray Burst detection and localization using miniaturized instruments onboard nano-satellites. The HERMES flight model payloads were exposed to multiple well-known radioactive sources for spectroscopic calibration under controlled laboratory conditions. The analysis of the calibration data allows both to determine the detector parameters, necessary to map instrumental units to accurate energy measurements, and to assess the performance of the instruments. We report on these efforts and quantify features such as spectroscopic resolution and energy thresholds, at different temperatures and for all payloads of the constellation. Finally we review the performance of the HERMES payload as a photon counter, and discuss the strengths and the limitations of the architecture.
Journal Article
Recent progress in high resolution X-ray customised detection systems
The results of a collaborative development activity aimed to the realization of multi-cell detectors based on monolithic SDD pixel technology will be described. Two kind of detection systems, skilled for the light lines at synchrotrons, have been brought to high levels of finalization and integration; a 64 cells detection system dedicated to absorption spectroscopy (XAFS) and a 32 cells detector for the X-ray microscopy (TwinMic). The main targets of this effort, led in a tight collaboration with the beam lines scientists, were large sensitive area, high rate capabilities, state of the art efficiency and energy resolution. The aim is to reduce the beam time demand for each single measurement while delivering a cutting edge analytical power. All basic elements of those detection systems, from the detector’s design and production to the front-end and read-out electronics including the final engineering of the integrated system were customized to the specific use addressed.
Journal Article
Implementation and evaluation of sea level operators in OceanVar2.0: an open-source oceanographic three-dimensional variational data assimilation system
This study presents the development and sensitivity analysis of the sea level operator within the OceanVar software which implements an oceanographic incremental three-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme. In OceanVar, the background error covariance matrix is decomposed into a sequence of physically based linear operators, allowing for individual analysis of specific error matrix components. The key development of OceanVar2.0 is the full integration of both dynamic height and barotropic model formulations as a flexible option for handling sea level covariance. The comparison of the two formulations of the sea level operator which provides correlations between Sea Level Anomaly, temperature and salinity increments is presented. The sensitivity experiments were performed in the Mediterranean Sea and the quality of the analysis assessed by comparing background estimates with observations for the period January–December 2021. The results confirm the methodological advantage of the barotropic model operator, which successfully overcomes the physical and operational limitations associated with choosing an appropriate level-of-no-motion for the dynamic height formulation. Furthermore, we present a method to assimilate along-track satellite altimetry considering a forecasting model with tides.
Journal Article