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Inherited genetic variation influencing leukocyte telomere length provides a natural experiment for testing associations with health outcomes, more robust to confounding and reverse causation than observational studies. We tested associations between genetically determined telomere length and aging‐related health outcomes in a large European ancestry older cohort. Data were from n = 379,758 UK Biobank participants aged 40–70, followed up for mean of 7.5 years (n = 261,837 participants aged 60 and older by end of follow‐up). Thirteen variants strongly associated with longer telomere length in peripheral white blood cells were analyzed using Mendelian randomization methods with Egger plots to assess pleiotropy. Variants in TERC, TERT, NAF1, OBFC1, and RTEL1 were included, and estimates were per 250 base pairs increase in telomere length, approximately equivalent to the average change over a decade in the general white population. We highlighted associations with false discovery rate‐adjusted p‐values smaller than .05. Genetically determined longer telomere length was associated with lowered risk of coronary heart disease (CHD; OR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.92–0.98) but raised risk of cancer (OR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.06–1.16). Little evidence for associations were found with parental lifespan, centenarian status of parents, cognitive function, grip strength, sarcopenia, or falls. The results for those aged 60 and older were similar in younger or all participants. Genetically determined telomere length was associated with increased risk of cancer and reduced risk of CHD but little change in other age‐related health outcomes. Telomere lengthening may offer little gain in later‐life health status and face increasing cancer risks. We estimated associations between measured telomere length (TL) and several aging outcomes by using TL‐associated inherited genetic variants, which are robust to later environmental exposures (confounders)(top X). Genetically determined TL was associated with increased risks of cancers and reduced risks of cardiovascular disease, but little change in other studied age‐related health outcomes. There was genetic evidence consistent with these findings being caused through telomere length itself, rather than through another (unknown) pathway (bottom X).

Background: Perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA, also known as C8) and perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) are stable compounds with many industrial and consumer uses. Their persistence in the environment plus toxicity in animal models has raised concern over low-level chronic exposure effects on human health. Objectives: We estimated associations between serum PFOA and PFOS concentrations and thyroid disease prevalence in representative samples of the U.S. general population. Methods: Analyses of PFOA/PFOS versus disease status in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) for 1999–2000, 2003–2004, and 2005–2006 included 3,974 adults with measured concentrations for perfluorinated chemicals. Regression models were adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, smoking status, body mass index, and alcohol intake. Results: The NHANES-weighted prevalence of reporting any thyroid disease was 16.18% (n = 292) in women and 3.06% (n = 69) in men; prevalence of current thyroid disease with related medication was 9.89% (n = 163) in women and 1.88% (n = 46) in men. In fully adjusted logistic models, women with PFOA ≥ 5.7 ng/mL [fourth (highest) population quartile] were more likely to report current treated thyroid disease [odds ratio (OR) = 2.24; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.38–3.65; p = 0.002] compared with PFOA ≤ 4.0 ng/mL (quartiles 1 and 2); we found a near significant similar trend in men (OR = 2.12; 95% CI, 0.93–4.82; p = 0.073). For PFOS, in men we found a similar association for those with PFOS ≥ 36.8 ng/mL (quartile 4) versus ≤ 25.5 ng/mL (quartiles 1 and 2: OR for treated disease = 2.68; 95% CI, 1.03–6.98; p = 0.043); in women this association was not significant. Conclusions: Higher concentrations of serum PFOA and PFOS are associated with current thyroid disease in the U.S. general adult population. More work is needed to establish the mechanisms involved and to exclude confounding and pharmacokinetic explanations.

Bisphenol A (BPA) is a high production volume chemical widely used in food and drinks packaging. Associations have previously been reported between urinary BPA concentrations and heart disease, diabetes and liver enzymes in adult participants of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2003/04. We aimed to estimate associations between urinary BPA concentrations and health measures in NHANES 2005/06 and in data pooled across collection years. A cross-sectional analysis of NHANES: subjects were n = 1455 (2003/04) and n = 1493 (2005/06) adults aged 18-74 years, representative of the general adult population of the United States. Regression models were adjusted for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, income, smoking, BMI, waist circumference, and urinary creatinine concentration. Main outcomes were reported diagnoses of heart attack, coronary heart disease, angina and diabetes and serum liver enzyme levels. Urinary BPA concentrations in 2005/06 (geometric mean 1.79 ng/ml, 95% CI: 1.64 to 1.96) were lower than in 2003/04 (2.49 ng/ml, CI: 2.20 to 2.83, difference p-value = 0.00002). Higher BPA concentrations were associated with coronary heart disease in 2005/06 (OR per z-score increase in BPA = 1.33, 95%CI: 1.01 to 1.75, p = 0.043) and in pooled data (OR = 1.42, CI: 1.17 to 1.72, p = 0.001). Associations with diabetes did not reach significance in 2005/06, but pooled estimates remained significant (OR = 1.24, CI: 1.10 to 1.40, p = 0.001). There was no overall association with gamma glutamyl transferase concentrations, but pooled associations with alkaline phosphatase and lactate dehydrogenase remained significant. Higher BPA exposure, reflected in higher urinary concentrations of BPA, is consistently associated with reported heart disease in the general adult population of the USA. Studies to clarify the mechanisms of these associations are urgently needed.

Higher Red Blood Cell Distribution Width (RDW or anisocytosis) predicts incident coronary artery disease (CAD) plus all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, but its predictive value for other common diseases in healthy volunteers is less clear. We aimed to determine the shorter and longer term associations between RDW and incident common conditions in participants free of baseline disease, followed for 9 years. We undertook a prospective analysis of RDW% using 240,477 healthy UK Biobank study volunteers aged 40-70 years at baseline, with outcomes ascertained during follow-up (≤9 years). Participants were free of anemia, CAD, type-2 diabetes, stroke, hypertension, COPD, and any cancer (except non-melanoma skin cancer) at baseline. Survival models (with competing Hazards) tested associations with outcomes from hospital admission records and death certificates. High RDW (≥15% variation, n = 6,050) compared to low (<12.5% n = 20,844) was strongly associated with mortality (HR 3.10: 95% CI 2.57 to 3.74), adjusted for age, sex, smoking status, education level, mean cell volume and hemoglobin concentration. Higher RDW was also associated with incident CAD (sub-HR 1.67: 1.40 to 1.99), heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, atrial fibrillation, stroke, and cancer (sHR 1.37: 1.21 to 1.55; colorectal cancer sHR 1.92: 1.36 to 2.72), especially leukemia (sHR 2.85: 1.63 to 4.97). Associations showed dose-response relationships, and RDW had long-term predictive value (≥4.5 years after assessment) for the majority of outcomes, which were similar in younger and older persons. In conclusion, higher RDW predicted onsets of a wide range of common conditions as well as mortality in a large healthy volunteer cohort. RDW is not just a short term predictor, as high levels were predictive 4.5 to 9 years after baseline in healthy volunteers. The wide range of outcomes reflects known RDW genetic influences, including diverse disease risks. RDW may be a useful clinical marker for inclusion in wellness assessments.

ObjectivesHFE haemochromatosis genetic variants have an uncertain clinical penetrance, especially to older ages and in undiagnosed groups. We estimated p.C282Y and p.H63D variant cumulative incidence of multiple clinical outcomes in a large community cohort.DesignProspective cohort study.Setting22 assessment centres across England, Scotland, and Wales in the UK Biobank (2006–2010).Participants451 270 participants genetically similar to the 1000 Genomes European reference population, with a mean of 13.3-year follow-up through hospital inpatient, cancer registries and death certificate data.Main outcome measuresCox proportional HRs of incident clinical outcomes and mortality in those with HFE p.C282Y/p.H63D mutations compared with those with no variants, stratified by sex and adjusted for age, assessment centre and genetic stratification. Cumulative incidences were estimated from age 40 years to 80 years.Results12.1% of p.C282Y+/+ males had baseline (mean age 57 years) haemochromatosis diagnoses, with a cumulative incidence of 56.4% at age 80 years. 33.1% died vs 25.4% without HFE variants (HR 1.29, 95% CI: 1.12 to 1.48, p=4.7×10-4); 27.9% vs 17.1% had joint replacements, 20.3% vs 8.3% had liver disease, and there were excess delirium, dementia, and Parkinson’s disease but not depression. Associations, including excess mortality, were similar in the group undiagnosed with haemochromatosis. 3.4% of women with p.C282Y+/+ had baseline haemochromatosis diagnoses, with a cumulative incidence of 40.5% at age 80 years. There were excess incident liver disease (8.9% vs 6.8%; HR 1.62, 95% CI: 1.27 to 2.05, p=7.8×10-5), joint replacements and delirium, with similar results in the undiagnosed. p.C282Y/p.H63D and p.H63D+/+ men or women had no statistically significant excess fatigue or depression at baseline and no excess incident outcomes.ConclusionsMale and female p.C282Y homozygotes experienced greater excess morbidity than previously documented, including those undiagnosed with haemochromatosis in the community. As haemochromatosis diagnosis rates were low at baseline despite treatment being considered effective, trials of screening to identify people with p.C282Y homozygosity early appear justified.

Studies have suggested that CMV infection may influence cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and mortality. However, there have been no large-scale examinations of these relationships among demographically diverse populations. The inflammatory marker C-reactive protein (CRP) is also linked with CVD outcomes and mortality and may play an important role in the pathway between CMV and mortality. We utilized a U.S. nationally representative study to examine whether CMV infection is associated with all-cause and CVD-related mortality. We also assessed whether CRP level mediated or modified these relationships. Data come from subjects ≥ 25 years of age who were tested for CMV and CRP level and were eligible for mortality follow-up on December 31(st), 2006 (N = 14153) in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) III (1988-1994). Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for all-cause and CVD-related mortality by CMV serostatus. After adjusting for multiple confounders, CMV seropositivity remained statistically significantly associated with all-cause mortality (HR 1.19, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.41). The association between CMV and CVD-related mortality did not achieve statistical significance after confounder adjustment. CRP did not mediate these associations. However, CMV seropositive individuals with high CRP levels showed a 30.1% higher risk for all-cause mortality and 29.5% higher risk for CVD-related mortality compared to CMV seropositive individuals with low CRP levels. CMV was associated with a significant increased risk for all-cause mortality and CMV seropositive subjects who also had high CRP levels were at substantially higher risk for both for all-cause and CVD-related mortality than subjects with low CRP levels. Future work should target the mechanisms by which CMV infection and low-level inflammation interact to yield significant impact on mortality.

In this paper we review the methodological underpinnings of the general pharmacogenetic approach for uncovering genetically-driven treatment effect heterogeneity. This typically utilises only individuals who are treated and relies on fairly strong baseline assumptions to estimate what we term the ‘genetically moderated treatment effect’ (GMTE). When these assumptions are seriously violated, we show that a robust but less efficient estimate of the GMTE that incorporates information on the population of untreated individuals can instead be used. In cases of partial violation, we clarify when Mendelian randomization and a modified confounder adjustment method can also yield consistent estimates for the GMTE. A decision framework is then described to decide when a particular estimation strategy is most appropriate and how specific estimators can be combined to further improve efficiency. Triangulation of evidence from different data sources, each with their inherent biases and limitations, is becoming a well established principle for strengthening causal analysis. We call our framework ‘ T riangulation WI thin a ST udy’ (TWIST)’ in order to emphasise that an analysis in this spirit is also possible within a single data set, using causal estimates that are approximately uncorrelated, but reliant on different sets of assumptions. We illustrate these approaches by re-analysing primary-care-linked UK Biobank data relating to CYP2C19 genetic variants, Clopidogrel use and stroke risk, and data relating to APOE genetic variants, statin use and Coronary Artery Disease.

Variability in red blood cell volumes (distribution width, RDW) increases with age and is strongly predictive of mortality, incident coronary heart disease and cancer. We investigated inherited genetic variation associated with RDW in 116,666 UK Biobank human volunteers. A large proportion RDW is explained by genetic variants (29%), especially in the older group (60+ year olds, 33.8%, <50 year olds, 28.4%). RDW was associated with 194 independent genetic signals; 71 are known for conditions including autoimmune disease, certain cancers, BMI, Alzheimer's disease, longevity, age at menopause, bone density, myositis, Parkinson's disease, and age-related macular degeneration. Exclusion of anemic participants did not affect the overall findings. Pathways analysis showed enrichment for telomere maintenance, ribosomal RNA, and apoptosis. The majority of RDW-associated signals were intronic (119 of 194), including SNP rs6602909 located in an intron of oncogene GAS6, an eQTL in whole blood. Although increased RDW is predictive of cardiovascular outcomes, this was not explained by known CVD or related lipid genetic risks, and a RDW genetic score was not predictive of incident disease. The predictive value of RDW for a range of negative health outcomes may in part be due to variants influencing fundamental pathways of aging.

Bisphenol A is widely used in food and drinks packaging. There is evidence of associations between raised urinary bisphenol A (uBPA) and increased incidence of reported cardiovascular diagnoses. To estimate associations between BPA exposure and angiographically graded coronary atherosclerosis. 591 patients participating in The Metabonomics and Genomics in Coronary Artery Disease (MaGiCAD) study in Cambridgeshire UK, comparing urinary BPA (uBPA) with grades of severity of coronary artery disease (CAD) on angiography. Linear models were adjusted for BMI, occupational social class and diabetes status. Severe (one to three vessel) CAD was present in 385 patients, 86 had intermediate disease (n=86) and 120 had normal coronary arteries. The (unadjusted) median uBPA concentration was 1.28 ng/mL with normal coronary arteries, and 1.53 ng/mL with severe CAD. Compared to those with normal coronary arteries, uBPA concentration was significantly higher in those with severe CAD (OR per uBPA SD=5.96 ng/ml OR=1.43, CI 1.03 to 1.98, p=0.033), and near significant for intermediate disease (OR=1.69, CI 0.98 to 2.94, p=0.061). There was no significant uBPA difference between patients with severe CAD (needing surgery) and the remaining groups combined. BPA exposure was higher in those with severe coronary artery stenoses compared to those with no vessel disease. Larger studies are needed to estimate true dose response relationships. The mechanisms underlying the association remain to be established.

Common Variation in the FTO Gene Alters Diabetes-Related Metabolic Traits to the Extent Expected Given Its Effect on BMI Rachel M. Freathy 1 , Nicholas J. Timpson 2 3 , Debbie A. Lawlor 3 4 , Anneli Pouta 5 , Yoav Ben-Shlomo 4 , Aimo Ruokonen 5 , Shah Ebrahim 6 , Beverley Shields 1 , Eleftheria Zeggini 2 , Michael N. Weedon 1 , Cecilia M. Lindgren 2 7 , Hana Lango 1 , David Melzer 1 , Luigi Ferrucci 8 , Giuseppe Paolisso 9 , Matthew J. Neville 7 , Fredrik Karpe 7 , Colin N.A. Palmer 10 , Andrew D. Morris 10 , Paul Elliott 11 , Marjo-Riitta Jarvelin 5 11 , George Davey Smith 3 4 , Mark I. McCarthy 2 7 , Andrew T. Hattersley 1 and Timothy M. Frayling 1 1 Peninsula Medical School, Exeter, U.K 2 Wellcome Trust Centre for Human Genetics, University of Oxford, Oxford, U.K 3 MRC Centre for Causal Analyses in Translational Epidemiology, Bristol University, Bristol, U.K 4 Department of Social Medicine, Bristol University, Bristol, U.K 5 National Public Health Institute and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland 6 London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, U.K 7 Oxford Centre for Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism, University of Oxford, Oxford, U.K 8 National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland 9 II University of Naples, Naples, Italy 10 Ninewells Hospital and Medical School, University of Dundee, Nethergate, Dundee, Scotland, U.K 11 Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Imperial College, London, U.K Corresponding author: Prof. Timothy M. Frayling, Institute of Biomedical and Clinical Science, Peninsula Medical School, Magdalen Rd., Exeter, EX1 2LU, U.K. E-mail: tim.frayling{at}pms.ac.uk Abstract OBJECTIVE— Common variation in the FTO gene is associated with BMI and type 2 diabetes. Increased BMI is associated with diabetes risk factors, including raised insulin, glucose, and triglycerides. We aimed to test whether FTO genotype is associated with variation in these metabolic traits. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS— We tested the association between FTO genotype and 10 metabolic traits using data from 17,037 white European individuals. We compared the observed effect of FTO genotype on each trait to that expected given the FTO -BMI and BMI-trait associations. RESULTS— Each copy of the FTO rs9939609 A allele was associated with higher fasting insulin (0.039 SD [95% CI 0.013–0.064]; P = 0.003), glucose (0.024 [0.001–0.048]; P = 0.044), and triglycerides (0.028 [0.003–0.052]; P = 0.025) and lower HDL cholesterol (0.032 [0.008–0.057]; P = 0.009). There was no evidence of these associations when adjusting for BMI. Associations with fasting alanine aminotransferase, γ-glutamyl-transferase, LDL cholesterol, A1C, and systolic and diastolic blood pressure were in the expected direction but did not reach P < 0.05. For all metabolic traits, effect sizes were consistent with those expected for the per allele change in BMI. FTO genotype was associated with a higher odds of metabolic syndrome (odds ratio 1.17 [95% CI 1.10–1.25]; P = 3 × 10 −6 ). CONCLUSIONS— FTO genotype is associated with metabolic traits to an extent entirely consistent with its effect on BMI. Sample sizes of >12,000 individuals were needed to detect associations at P < 0.05. Our findings highlight the importance of using appropriately powered studies to assess the effects of a known diabetes or obesity variant on secondary traits correlated with these conditions. ALT, alanine aminotransferase BWHHS, British Women's Heart and Health Study EFSOCH, Exeter Family Study of Childhood Health GGT, γ-glutamyl-transferase NCEP, National Cholesterol Education Program NFBC1966, Northern Finland Birth Cohort of 1966 NIA, National Institute on Aging SNP, single nucleotide polymorphism UKT2D GCC, U.K. Type 2 Diabetes Genetics Consortium Collection Footnotes Published ahead of print at http://diabetes.diabetesjournals.org on 17 March 2008. DOI: 10.2337/db07-1466. Additional information for this article can be found in an online appendix at http://dx.doi.org/10.2337/db07-1466 . R.M.F. and N.J.T. contributed equally to this work. M.-R.J., G.D.S., M.I.M., A.T.H., and T.M.F. contributed equally to this work. The costs of publication of this article were defrayed in part by the payment of page charges. This article must therefore be hereby marked “advertisement” in accordance with 18 U.S.C. Section 1734 solely to indicate this fact. Accepted January 27, 2008. Received October 13, 2007. DIABETES