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Epidemiological studies report associations of diverse cardiometabolic conditions including obesity with COVID-19 illness, but causality has not been established. We sought to evaluate the associations of 17 cardiometabolic traits with COVID-19 susceptibility and severity using 2-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses. We selected genetic variants associated with each exposure, including body mass index (BMI), at p < 5 × 10-8 from genome-wide association studies (GWASs). We then calculated inverse-variance-weighted averages of variant-specific estimates using summary statistics for susceptibility and severity from the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative GWAS meta-analyses of population-based cohorts and hospital registries comprising individuals with self-reported or genetically inferred European ancestry. Susceptibility was defined as testing positive for COVID-19 and severity was defined as hospitalization with COVID-19 versus population controls (anyone not a case in contributing cohorts). We repeated the analysis for BMI with effect estimates from the UK Biobank and performed pairwise multivariable MR to estimate the direct effects and indirect effects of BMI through obesity-related cardiometabolic diseases. Using p < 0.05/34 tests = 0.0015 to declare statistical significance, we found a nonsignificant association of genetically higher BMI with testing positive for COVID-19 (14,134 COVID-19 cases/1,284,876 controls, p = 0.002; UK Biobank: odds ratio 1.06 [95% CI 1.02, 1.10] per kg/m2; p = 0.004]) and a statistically significant association with higher risk of COVID-19 hospitalization (6,406 hospitalized COVID-19 cases/902,088 controls, p = 4.3 × 10-5; UK Biobank: odds ratio 1.14 [95% CI 1.07, 1.21] per kg/m2, p = 2.1 × 10-5). The implied direct effect of BMI was abolished upon conditioning on the effect on type 2 diabetes, coronary artery disease, stroke, and chronic kidney disease. No other cardiometabolic exposures tested were associated with a higher risk of poorer COVID-19 outcomes. Small study samples and weak genetic instruments could have limited the detection of modest associations, and pleiotropy may have biased effect estimates away from the null. In this study, we found genetic evidence to support higher BMI as a causal risk factor for COVID-19 susceptibility and severity. These results raise the possibility that obesity could amplify COVID-19 disease burden independently or through its cardiometabolic consequences and suggest that targeting obesity may be a strategy to reduce the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes.

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a heterogeneous disease for which (1) disease-causing pathways are incompletely understood and (2) subclassification may improve patient management. Unlike other biomarkers, germline genetic markers do not change with disease progression or treatment. In this paper, we test whether a germline genetic approach informed by physiology can be used to deconstruct T2D heterogeneity. First, we aimed to categorize genetic loci into groups representing likely disease mechanistic pathways. Second, we asked whether the novel clusters of genetic loci we identified have any broad clinical consequence, as assessed in four separate subsets of individuals with T2D. In an effort to identify mechanistic pathways driven by established T2D genetic loci, we applied Bayesian nonnegative matrix factorization (bNMF) clustering to genome-wide association study (GWAS) results for 94 independent T2D genetic variants and 47 diabetes-related traits. We identified five robust clusters of T2D loci and traits, each with distinct tissue-specific enhancer enrichment based on analysis of epigenomic data from 28 cell types. Two clusters contained variant-trait associations indicative of reduced beta cell function, differing from each other by high versus low proinsulin levels. The three other clusters displayed features of insulin resistance: obesity mediated (high body mass index [BMI] and waist circumference [WC]), \"lipodystrophy-like\" fat distribution (low BMI, adiponectin, and high-density lipoprotein [HDL] cholesterol, and high triglycerides), and disrupted liver lipid metabolism (low triglycerides). Increased cluster genetic risk scores were associated with distinct clinical outcomes, including increased blood pressure, coronary artery disease (CAD), and stroke. We evaluated the potential for clinical impact of these clusters in four studies containing individuals with T2D (Metabolic Syndrome in Men Study [METSIM], N = 487; Ashkenazi, N = 509; Partners Biobank, N = 2,065; UK Biobank [UKBB], N = 14,813). Individuals with T2D in the top genetic risk score decile for each cluster reproducibly exhibited the predicted cluster-associated phenotypes, with approximately 30% of all individuals assigned to just one cluster top decile. Limitations of this study include that the genetic variants used in the cluster analysis were restricted to those associated with T2D in populations of European ancestry. Our approach identifies salient T2D genetically anchored and physiologically informed pathways, and supports the use of genetics to deconstruct T2D heterogeneity. Classification of patients by these genetic pathways may offer a step toward genetically informed T2D patient management.

Aims/hypothesis Type 2 diabetes is highly polygenic and influenced by multiple biological pathways. Rapid expansion in the number of type 2 diabetes loci can be leveraged to identify such pathways. Methods We developed a high-throughput pipeline to enable clustering of type 2 diabetes loci based on variant–trait associations. Our pipeline extracted summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for type 2 diabetes and related traits to generate a matrix of 323 variants × 64 trait associations and applied Bayesian non-negative matrix factorisation (bNMF) to identify genetic components of type 2 diabetes. Epigenomic enrichment analysis was performed in 28 cell types and single pancreatic cells. We generated cluster-specific polygenic scores and performed regression analysis in an independent cohort ( N =25,419) to assess for clinical relevance. Results We identified ten clusters of genetic loci, recapturing the five from our prior analysis as well as novel clusters related to beta cell dysfunction, pronounced insulin secretion, and levels of alkaline phosphatase, lipoprotein A and sex hormone-binding globulin. Four clusters related to mechanisms of insulin deficiency, five to insulin resistance and one had an unclear mechanism. The clusters displayed tissue-specific epigenomic enrichment, notably with the two beta cell clusters differentially enriched in functional and stressed pancreatic beta cell states. Additionally, cluster-specific polygenic scores were differentially associated with patient clinical characteristics and outcomes. The pipeline was applied to coronary artery disease and chronic kidney disease, identifying multiple overlapping clusters with type 2 diabetes. Conclusions/interpretation Our approach stratifies type 2 diabetes loci into physiologically interpretable genetic clusters associated with distinct tissues and clinical outcomes. The pipeline allows for efficient updating as additional GWAS become available and can be readily applied to other conditions, facilitating clinical translation of GWAS findings. Software to perform this clustering pipeline is freely available. Graphical abstract

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are not fully comprehensive, as current strategies typically test only the additive model, exclude the X chromosome, and use only one reference panel for genotype imputation. We implement an extensive GWAS strategy, GUIDANCE, which improves genotype imputation by using multiple reference panels and includes the analysis of the X chromosome and non-additive models to test for association. We apply this methodology to 62,281 subjects across 22 age-related diseases and identify 94 genome-wide associated loci, including 26 previously unreported. Moreover, we observe that 27.7% of the 94 loci are missed if we use standard imputation strategies with a single reference panel, such as HRC, and only test the additive model. Among the new findings, we identify three novel low-frequency recessive variants with odds ratios larger than 4, which need at least a three-fold larger sample size to be detected under the additive model. This study highlights the benefits of applying innovative strategies to better uncover the genetic architecture of complex diseases. Most genome-wide association studies assume an additive model, exclude the X chromosome, and use one reference panel. Here, the authors implement a strategy including non-additive models and find that the number of loci for age-related traits increases as compared to the additive model alone.

Background Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a common systemic autoimmune disease with a complex genetic inheritance. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have significantly increased the number of significant loci associated with SLE risk. To date, however, established loci account for less than 30% of the disease heritability and additional risk variants have yet to be identified. Here we performed a GWAS followed by a meta-analysis to identify new genome-wide significant loci for SLE. Methods We genotyped a cohort of 907 patients with SLE (cases) and 1524 healthy controls from Spain and performed imputation using the 1000 Genomes reference data. We tested for association using logistic regression with correction for the principal components of variation. Meta-analysis of the association results was subsequently performed on 7,110,321 variants using genetic data from a large cohort of 4036 patients with SLE and 6959 controls of Northern European ancestry. Genetic association was also tested at the pathway level after removing the effect of known risk loci using PASCAL software. Results We identified five new loci associated with SLE at the genome-wide level of significance ( p  < 5 × 10 − 8 ): GRB2 , SMYD3 , ST8SIA4 , LAT2 and ARHGAP27 . Pathway analysis revealed several biological processes significantly associated with SLE risk: B cell receptor signaling ( p  = 5.28 × 10 − 6 ), CTLA4 co-stimulation during T cell activation ( p  = 3.06 × 10 − 5 ), interleukin-4 signaling ( p  = 3.97 × 10 − 5 ) and cell surface interactions at the vascular wall ( p  = 4.63 × 10 − 5 ). Conclusions Our results identify five novel loci for SLE susceptibility, and biologic pathways associated via multiple low-effect-size loci.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified more than 80 susceptibility loci for type 2 diabetes (T2D), but most of its heritability still remains to be elucidated. In this study, we conducted a meta-analysis of GWAS for T2D in the Japanese population. Combined data from discovery and subsequent validation analyses (23,399 T2D cases and 31,722 controls) identify 7 new loci with genome-wide significance ( P <5 × 10 −8 ), rs1116357 near CCDC85A , rs147538848 in FAM60A , rs1575972 near DMRTA1 , rs9309245 near ASB3 , rs67156297 near ATP8B2 , rs7107784 near MIR4686 and rs67839313 near INAFM2 . Of these, the association of 4 loci with T2D is replicated in multi-ethnic populations other than Japanese (up to 65,936 T2Ds and 158,030 controls, P <0.007). These results indicate that expansion of single ethnic GWAS is still useful to identify novel susceptibility loci to complex traits not only for ethnicity-specific loci but also for common loci across different ethnicities. Here, Imamura et al . conduct meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies to identify novel susceptibility loci for type 2 diabetes (T2D) in the Japanese population. By doing so, this study shows that both ethnicity-specific and ethnically-shared genetic loci can contribute to T2D risk.

Deep learning models leveraging electronic health records (EHR) for opportunistic screening of type 2 diabetes (T2D) can improve current practices by identifying individuals who may need further glycemic testing. Accurate onset prediction and subtyping are crucial for targeted interventions, but existing methods treat the tasks separately, thus limiting clinical utility. In this paper, we introduce a novel deep metric learning (DML) model that unifies both tasks by learning a latent space based on sample similarity. In onset prediction, the DML model predicts the onset of T2D 7 years later with an AUC of 0.754, outperforming logistic regression (AUC 0.706), clinical risk factors (AUC 0.693), and glycemic measures (AUC 0.632). For subtyping, we identify three subtypes with varying prevalences of obesity-related, cardiovascular, and mental health conditions. Additionally, the subtype with fewer comorbidities shows earlier metformin initiation and a greater reduction in HbA1c. We validated these findings using data from 300 U.S. hospitals in the All of Us program (T2D, n  = 7567) and the Massachusetts General Brigham Biobank (T2D, n  = 3298), demonstrating the transferability of our model and subtypes across cohorts.

The All of Us Research Program (AoU) is an initiative designed to gather a comprehensive and diverse dataset from at least one million individuals across the USA. This longitudinal cohort study aims to advance research by providing a rich resource of genetic and phenotypic information, enabling powerful studies on the epidemiology and genetics of human diseases. One critical challenge to maximizing its use is the development of accurate algorithms that can efficiently and accurately identify well-defined disease and disease-free participants for case-control studies. This study aimed to develop and validate type 1 (T1D) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) algorithms in the AoU cohort, using electronic health record (EHR) and survey data. Building on existing algorithms and using diagnosis codes, medications, laboratory results, and survey data, we developed and implemented algorithms for identifying prevalent cases of type 1 and type 2 diabetes. The first set of algorithms used only EHR data (EHR-only), and the second set used a combination of EHR and survey data (EHR+). A universal algorithm was also developed to identify individuals without diabetes. The performance of each algorithm was evaluated by testing its association with polygenic scores (PSs) for type 1 and type 2 diabetes. We demonstrated the feasibility and utility of using AoU EHR and survey data to employ diabetes algorithms. For T1D, the EHR-only algorithm showed a stronger association with T1D-PS compared to the EHR + algorithm (DeLong p-value = 3 × 10 −5 ). For T2D, the EHR + algorithm outperformed both the EHR-only and the existing T2D definition provided in the AoU Phenotyping Library (DeLong p-values = 0.03 and 1 × 10 −4 , respectively), identifying 25.79% and 22.57% more cases, respectively, and providing an improved association with T2D PS. We provide a new validated type 1 diabetes definition and an improved type 2 diabetes definition in AoU, which are freely available for diabetes research in the AoU. These algorithms ensure consistency of diabetes definitions in the cohort, facilitating high-quality diabetes research.

Background The clinical utility of genetic information for type 2 diabetes (T2D) prediction with polygenic scores (PGS) in ancestrally diverse, real-world US healthcare systems is unclear, especially for those at low clinical phenotypic risk for T2D. Methods We tested the association of PGS with T2D incidence in patients followed within a primary care practice network over 16 years in four hypothetical scenarios that varied by clinical data availability ( N = 14,712): (1) age and sex; (2) age, sex, body mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure, and family history of T2D; (3) all variables in (2) and random glucose; and (4) all variables in (3), HDL, total cholesterol, and triglycerides, combined in a clinical risk score (CRS). To determine whether genetic effects differed by baseline clinical risk, we tested for interaction with the CRS. Results PGS was associated with incident T2D in all models. Adjusting for age and sex only, the Hazard Ratio (HR) per PGS standard deviation (SD) was 1.76 (95% CI 1.68, 1.84) and the HR of top 5% of PGS vs interquartile range (IQR) was 2.80 (2.39, 3.28). Adjusting for the CRS, the HR per SD was 1.48 (1.40, 1.57) and HR of the top 5% of PGS vs IQR was 2.09 (1.72, 2.55). Genetic effects differed by baseline clinical risk ((PGS-CRS interaction p = 0.05; CRS below the median: HR 1.60 (1.43, 1.79); CRS above the median: HR 1.45 (1.35, 1.55)). Conclusions Genetic information can help identify high-risk patients even among those perceived to be low risk in a clinical evaluation.

Type 2 diabetes is associated with a range of non-cardiovascular non-oncologic comorbidities. To move beyond associations and evaluate causal effects between type 2 diabetes genetic predisposition and 21 comorbidities, we apply Mendelian randomization analysis using genome-wide association studies across multiple genetic ancestries. Additionally, leveraging eight mechanistic clusters of type 2 diabetes genetic profiles, each representing distinct biological pathways, we investigate causal links between cluster-stratified type 2 diabetes genetic predisposition and comorbidity risk. We identify causal effects of type 2 diabetes genetic predisposition driven by distinct genetic clusters. For example, the risk-increasing effects of type 2 diabetes genetic predisposition on cataracts and erectile dysfunction are primarily attributed to adiposity and glucose regulation mechanisms, respectively. We observe opposing effect directions across different genetic ancestries for depression, asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Our findings leverage the heterogeneity underpinning type 2 diabetes genetic predisposition to prioritize biological mechanisms underlying causal relationships with comorbidities. Type 2 diabetes predisposes individuals to multiple comorbidities, but causal mechanisms are unclear. Here, the authors use Mendelian randomisation to show that distinct genetic pathways underlie diabetes-related risks, with ancestry-specific differences.