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The concept of macroseismic intensity arose with the purpose of measuring the strength of an earthquake by the effects it causes on buildings, people, and domestic furnishings. From this perspective, buildings can be considered seismic sensors that record the shaking. Early scales were conceived at a time when buildings were mainly in masonry and therefore they could be used as markers of the intensity in case of earthquakes. Indeed, since they were fairly homogeneous, their level of damage could be considered as an indicator of the shaking level. In recent decades, the evolution of construction techniques have made the MCS scale unsuitable for damage assessment of buildings of various resistance. To overcome this problem the EMS-98 scale was designed. Because the MCS scale is still used in Italy, even in the presence of many reinforced concrete buildings, the purpose of this work is to show that the EMS-98 is the most suitable tool for assessing intensity as it is more consistent with the built environment. Theoretical and real intensity assessments, by both MCS and EMS-98, have been determined and compared, showing that nowadays intensity is a function of the vulnerability. MCS and EMS-98 would be comparable only when the building stock is composed of very vulnerable edifices (generally class A). Finally, thanks to the similarity of the two scales for old and vulnerable buildings, EMS-98 appears fully adequate to investigate historical earthquakes and represents a powerful tool to ensure continuity among earthquakes of different epochs.

The tectonic system of the eastern flank of Mt. Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy) is the source of most of the strongest earthquakes occurring in the area over the last 205 years. A total of 12 events with epicentre intensities ≥VIII EMS have occurred at Mt. Etna, 10 of which were located on the eastern flank. This indicates a mean recurrence time of about 20 years. This area is highly urbanised, with many villages around the volcano at altitudes up to 700 m a.s.l. The southern and eastern flanks are particularly highly populated areas, with numerous villages very close to each other. The probabilistic seismic hazard due to local faults for Mt. Etna was calculated by adopting a site approach to seismic hazard assessment. Only the site histories of local volcano-tectonic earthquakes were considered, leaving out the effects due to strong regional earthquakes that occurred in north-eastern and south-eastern Sicily. The inventory used in this application refers to residential buildings. These data were extracted from the 1991 census of the Italian National Institute of Statistics, and are grouped according to the census sections. The seismic vulnerability of the elements at risk belonging to a given building typology is described by a vulnerability index, in accordance with a damage model based on macroseismic intensities. For the estimation of economic losses due to physical damage to buildings, an integrated impact indicator was used, which is equivalent to the lost building volume. The expected annualised economic earthquake losses were evaluated both in absolute and in relative terms, and were compared with the geographical distribution of seismic hazard and with similar evaluations of losses for other regions.

A procedure for seismic risk assessment is applied to the Mt. Etna area (eastern Sicily, Italy) through assessment of urban system dysfunction following the occurrence of an earthquake. The tool used is based on the Disruption Index as a concept implemented in Simulator QuakeIST, which defines urban disruption following a natural disaster. The first element of the procedure is the definition of the seismic input, which is based on information about historical seismicity and seismogenic faults. The second element is computation of seismic impact on the building stock and infrastructure in the area considered. Information on urban-scale vulnerability was collected and a geographic information system was used to organise the data relating to buildings and network systems (e.g., building stock, schools, strategic structures, lifelines). The central idea underlying the definition of the Disruption Index is identification and evaluation of the impact on a target community through the physical elements that most contribute to severe disruption. The procedure applied in this study (i.e., software and data) constitutes a very useful operational tool to drive the development of strategies to minimise risks from earthquakes.

In July 1998, an M w  = 6.2 earthquake struck the islands of Faial, Pico and San Jorge (in the Azores Archipelago), registering VIII on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale and causing major destruction in the northeastern part of Faial. The main shock was located offshore, 8 km North East of the island, and it triggered a seismic sequence that lasted for several weeks. The existing data for this earthquake include both the general tectonic environment of the region and the teleseismic information. This is accompanied by one strong-motion record obtained 15 km from the epicentre, the epicentre location of aftershocks, and a large collection of the damage inflicted to the building stock (as poor rubble masonry, of 2–3 storeys). The present study was carried out in two steps: first, with a finite-fault stochastic simulation method of ground motion at sites throughout the affected islands, for two possible locations of the rupturing fault and for a large number of combinations of rupture mechanisms (as a parametric analysis); secondly, the damage to buildings was modelled using a well-known macroseismic method that considers the building typologies and their associated vulnerabilities. The main intent was to integrate different data (geological, seismological and building features) to produce a scenario model to reproduce and justify the level of damage generated during the Faial earthquake. Finally, through validation of the results provided by these different approaches, we obtained a complete procedure for the parameters of a first model for the production of seismic damage scenarios for the Azores Islands region.

This paper reports the main results of the EC-Project SERGISAI. The project developed a computer prototype where a methodology for seismic risk assessment has been implemented. Standard procedural codes, Geographic Information Systems and Artificial Intelligence Techniques compose the prototype, which permits a seismic risk assessment to be carried out through the necessary steps. Risk is expressed in terms of expected damage, given by the combination of hazard and vulnerability. Two parallel paths have been followed with respect to the hazard factor: the probabilistic and the deterministic approach. The first provides the hazard analysis based on historical data, propagation models, and known seismic sources. The deterministic approach provides the input for scenarios, by selecting a specific ground motion. With respect to the vulnerability factor, several systems have been taken into account apart from buildings, which are usually considered in this type of analysis. Defining vulnerability as a measure of how prone a system is to be damaged in the event of an earthquake, an attempt has been made to move from the assessment of individual objects to the evaluation of the performance of urban and regional areas. Another step towards an approach which can better serve civil protection and land use planning agencies has been made by adapting the analysis to the following geographical levels: local, sub-regional and regional. Both the hazard and the vulnerability factors have been treated in the most suitable way for each one, in terms of level of detail, kind of parameters and units of measure. In this paper are shown some results obtained in two test areas: Toscana in Italy, for the regional level, the Garfagnana sub-area in Toscana, for the sub-regional level, and a part of the city of Barcelona, Spain, for the local level.

The European project SERGISAI developed a computational tool where amethodology for seismic risk assessment at different geographical scales hasbeen implemented. Experts of various disciplines, including seismologists,engineers, planners, geologists, and computer scientists, co-operated in anactual multidisciplinary process to develop this tool. Standard proceduralcodes, Geographical Information Systems (GIS), and Artificial Intelligence(AI) techniques compose the whole system, that will enable the end userto carry out a complete seismic risk assessment at three geographical scales:regional, sub-regional and local. At present, single codes or models thathave been incorporated are not new in general, but the modularity of theprototype, based on a user-friendly front-end, offers potential users thepossibility of updating or replacing any code or model if desired. Theproposed procedure is a first attempt to integrate tools, codes and methodsfor assessing expected earthquake damage, and it was mainly designedto become a useful support for civil defence and land use planning agencies.Risk factors have been treated in the most suitable way for each one, interms of level of detail, kind of parameters and units of measure.Identifying various geographical scales is not a mere question of dimension;since entities to be studied correspond to areas defined by administrativeand geographical borders. The procedure was applied in the following areas:Toscana in Italy, for the regional scale, the Garfagnana area in Toscana, forthe sub-regional scale, and a part of Barcelona city, Spain, for the localscale.[PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]

The European project SERGISAI developed a computational tool where a methodology for seismic risk assessment at different geographical scales has been implemented. Experts of various disciplines, including seismologists, engineers, planners, geologists, and computer scientists, co-operated in an actual multidisciplinary process to develop this tool. Standard procedural codes, Geographical Information Systems (GIS), and Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques compose the whole system, that will enable the end user to carry out a complete seismic risk assessment at three geographical scales: regional, sub-regional and local. At present, single codes or models that have been incorporated are not new in general, but the modularity of the prototype, based on a user-friendly front-end, offers potential users the possibility of updating or replacing any code or model if desired. The proposed procedure is a first attempt to integrate tools, codes and methods for assessing expected earthquake damage, and it was mainly designed to become a useful support for civil defence and land use planning agencies. Risk factors have been treated in the most suitable way for each one, in terms of level of detail, kind of parameters and units of measure. Identifying various geographical scales is not a mere question of dimension; since entities to be studied correspond to areas defined by administrative and geographical borders. The procedure was applied in the following areas: Toscana in Italy, for the regional scale, the Garfagnana area in Toscana, for the sub-regional scale, and a part of Barcelona city, Spain, for the local scale.

ObjectivesDevelop recommendations for women's health issues and family planning in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and/or antiphospholipid syndrome (APS).MethodsSystematic review of evidence followed by modified Delphi method to compile questions, elicit expert opinions and reach consensus.ResultsFamily planning should be discussed as early as possible after diagnosis. Most women can have successful pregnancies and measures can be taken to reduce the risks of adverse maternal or fetal outcomes. Risk stratification includes disease activity, autoantibody profile, previous vascular and pregnancy morbidity, hypertension and the use of drugs (emphasis on benefits from hydroxychloroquine and antiplatelets/anticoagulants). Hormonal contraception and menopause replacement therapy can be used in patients with stable/inactive disease and low risk of thrombosis. Fertility preservation with gonadotropin-releasing hormone analogues should be considered prior to the use of alkylating agents. Assisted reproduction techniques can be safely used in patients with stable/inactive disease; patients with positive antiphospholipid antibodies/APS should receive anticoagulation and/or low-dose aspirin. Assessment of disease activity, renal function and serological markers is important for diagnosing disease flares and monitoring for obstetrical adverse outcomes. Fetal monitoring includes Doppler ultrasonography and fetal biometry, particularly in the third trimester, to screen for placental insufficiency and small for gestational age fetuses. Screening for gynaecological malignancies is similar to the general population, with increased vigilance for cervical premalignant lesions if exposed to immunosuppressive drugs. Human papillomavirus immunisation can be used in women with stable/inactive disease.ConclusionsRecommendations for women's health issues in SLE and/or APS were developed using an evidence-based approach followed by expert consensus.

Ocean and atmosphere exchange energy and mass at their interface at a rate that depends on the dynamical and thermodynamical disequilibrium between water and air. In this work, using an atmospheric model forced by observed high resolution sea surface temperature (SST) fields, we show that the air‐sea disequilibrium is also maintained by atmospheric processes driven by fine scale SST patterns. The analysis focuses on north‐western tropical Atlantic and indicates that fine scale SST anomalies modulate the air column stability and the entrainment of dry air at boundary layer top. The main effect is a modification in near surface temperature and moisture content, which produces a negative response of relative humidity to local SST variability, resulting in a larger sensitivity of latent than sensible heat fluxes to local SST anomalies. Such sensitivities are quantified as 95% and 70% of fluxes upper bound, estimated with local atmospheric properties uncorrelated with SST anomalies. Plain Language Summary Air temperature and cloudiness largely depend on heat fluxes and evaporation from the underlying surface, covered by oceans over most of the planet. Energy and water exchanges between atmosphere and oceans are controlled by differences in air and water temperature and by air humidity. While storminess and atmospheric dynamics largely drive their large scale variability, at fine scales local sea surface temperature (SST) affects the air‐sea thermodynamical disequilibrium. In this study, we use an atmospheric numerical model of the North West Atlantic Trade Wind region to investigate the effects of realistic fine scale SST patterns on air‐sea fluxes and clouds. We show that local air warming in presence of a SST warm patch modifies atmospheric vertical stratification favoring the input of dry upper level air into the lower atmosphere. This leads to a strong sensitivity of evaporative fluxes to fine scale SST patterns, and modifies low cloud characteristics, which are known to greatly affect the radiative budget of the planet. Key Points Fine scale sea surface temperature (SST) patterns induce changes in entrainment at the top of the atmospheric boundary layer SST driven entrainment regulates disequilibrium between ocean and atmosphere at their interface affecting sensible and latent heat fluxes Low‐level clouds increase and are formed at higher levels over warm SST