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Several studies have suggested that the carbon sink in the Southern Ocean—the ocean's strongest region for the uptake of anthropogenic CO2—has weakened in recent decades. We demonstrated, on the basis of multidecadal analyses of surface ocean CO2 observations, that this weakening trend stopped around 2002, and by 2012 the Southern Ocean had regained its expected strength based on the growth of atmospheric CO2. All three Southern Ocean sectors have contributed to this reinvigoration of the carbon sink, yet differences in the processes between sectors exist, related to a tendency toward a zonally more asymmetric atmospheric circulation. The large decadal variations in the Southern Ocean carbon sink suggest a rather dynamic ocean carbon cycle that varies more in time than previously recognized.

Oceanic uptake of carbon dioxide reduces the rate at which anthropogenic carbon accumulates in the atmosphere. Trends in oceanic and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations converge on a multidecadal timescale, according to an analysis of North Atlantic surface waters. Oceanic uptake of carbon dioxide substantially reduces the rate at which anthropogenic carbon accumulates in the atmosphere 1 , slowing global climate change. Some studies suggest that the rate at which the oceans take up carbon has significantly decreased in recent years 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 . Others suggest that decadal variability confounds the detection of long-term trends 9 , 10 , 11 . Here, we examine trends in the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the surface waters of three large biogeographic regions in the North Atlantic, using observational data collected between 1981 and 2009. We compare these oceanic observations with trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, taken from a global observational network. We show that trends in oceanic carbon dioxide concentrations are variable on a decadal timescale, often diverging from trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide. However, when the entire 29-year period is considered, oceanic trends converge with atmospheric trends in all three regions; it takes 25 years for this long-term trend to emerge and overcome the influence of decadal-scale variability. Furthermore, in the southernmost biome, the data suggest that warming—driven by a multidecadal climate oscillation and anthropogenic forcing 12 , 13 —has started to reduce oceanic uptake of carbon in recent years.

The hydrological cycle is expected to intensify in a warming climate. However, observational evidence of such changes in the Southern Ocean is difficult to obtain due to sparse measurements and a complex superposition of changes in precipitation, sea ice, and glacial meltwater. Here we disentangle these signals using a dataset of salinity and seawater oxygen isotope observations collected in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean. Our results show that the atmospheric water cycle has intensified in this region between 1993 and 2021, increasing the salinity in subtropical surface waters by 0.06 ± 0.07 g kg −1 per decade, and decreasing the salinity in subpolar surface waters by -0.02 ± 0.01 g kg −1 per decade. The oxygen isotope data allow to discriminate the different freshwater processes showing that in the subpolar region, the freshening is largely driven by the increase in net precipitation (by a factor two) while the decrease in sea ice melt is largely balanced by the contribution of glacial meltwater at these latitudes. These changes extend the growing evidence for an acceleration of the hydrological cycle and a melting cryosphere that can be expected from global warming. Based on concurrent salinity and oxygen isotope observations, the authors find that amplification of the atmospheric water cycle is the main contributor to changes in surface salinity in the Indian Southern Ocean over the past three decades.

The decadal changes in the fugacity of CO2 (fCO2) and pH in surface waters are investigated in the southern Indian Ocean (45–57∘ S) using repeated summer observations, including measurements of fCO2, total alkalinity (AT) and total carbon (CT) collected over the period 1998–2019 in the frame of the French monitoring programme OISO (Océan Indien Service d'Observation). We used three datasets (underway fCO2, underway AT–CT and station AT–CT) to evaluate the trends of fCO2 and pH and their drivers, including the accumulation of anthropogenic CO2 (Cant). The study region is separated into six domains based on the frontal system and biogeochemical characteristics: (i) high-nutrient low-chlorophyll (HNLC) waters in the polar front zone (PFZ) and (ii) north part and (iii) south part of HNLC waters south of the polar front (PF), as well as the highly productive zones in fertilised waters near (iv) Crozet Island and (v) north and (vi) south of Kerguelen Island. Almost everywhere, we obtained similar trends in surface fCO2 and pH using the fCO2 or AT–CT datasets. Over the period 1998–2019, we observed an increase in surface fCO2 and a decrease in pH ranging from +1.0 to +4.0 µatm yr−1 and from −0.0015 to −0.0043 yr−1, respectively. South of the PF, the fCO2 trend is close to the atmospheric CO2 rise (+2.0 µatm yr−1), and the decrease in pH is in the range of the mean trend for the global ocean (around −0.0020 yr−1); these trends are driven by the warming of surface waters (up to +0.04 ∘C yr−1) and the increase in CT mainly due to the accumulation of Cant (around +0.6 µmol kg−1 yr−1). In the PFZ, our data show slower fCO2 and pH trends (around +1.3 µatm yr−1 and −0.0013 yr−1, respectively) associated with an increase in AT (around +0.4 µmol kg−1 yr−1) that limited the impact of a more rapid accumulation of Cant north of the PF (up to +1.1 µmol kg−1 yr−1). In the fertilised waters near Crozet and Kerguelen islands, fCO2 increased and pH decreased faster than in the other domains, between +2.2 and +4.0 µatm yr−1 and between −0.0023 and −0.0043 yr−1. The fastest trends of fCO2 and pH are found around Kerguelen Island north and south of the PF. These trends result from both a significant warming (up to +0.07 ∘C yr−1) and a rapid increase in CT (up to +1.4 µmol kg−1 yr−1) mainly explained by the uptake of Cant. Our data also show rapid changes in short periods and a relative stability of both fCO2 and pH in recent years at several locations both north and south of the PF, which leaves many open questions, notably the tipping point for the saturation state of carbonate minerals that remains highly uncertain. This highlights the need to maintain observations in the long-term in order to explore how the carbonate system will evolve in this region in the next decades.

Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) is known as a long-term sink for anthropogenic CO2 (Cant), but the sink is hardly quantified because of the scarcity of observations, specifically at an interannual scale. We present in this paper an original dataset combining 40 years of carbonate system observations in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean (Enderby Basin) to evaluate and interpret the interannual variability ofCant in the AABW. This investigation is based on regular observations collected at the same location (63∘ E–56.5∘ S) in the framework of the French observatory OISO from 1998 to 2018 extended by GEOSECS and INDIGO observations (1978, 1985 and 1987).At this location the main sources of AABW sampled is the low-salinity Cape Darnley Bottom Water (CDBW) and the Weddell Sea Deep Water (WSDW). Our calculations reveal that Cant concentrations increased significantly in the AABW, from an average concentration of 7 µmol kg-1 calculated for the period 1978–1987 to an average concentration of 13 µmol kg-1 for the period 2010–2018. This is comparable to previous estimates in other Southern Ocean (SO) basins, with the exception of bottom water close to formation sites where Cant concentrations are about twice as large. Our analysis shows that total carbon (CT) and Cant increasing rates in the AABW are about the same over the period 1978–2018, and we conclude that the long-term change inCT is mainly due to the uptake of Cant in the different formation regions. This is, however, modulated by significant interannual to multi-annual variability associated with variations in hydrographic (potential temperature, Θ; salinity, S) and biogeochemical (CT; total alkalinity, AT; dissolved oxygen, O2) properties. A surprising result is the apparent stability of Cant concentrations in recent years despite the increase in CT and the gradual acceleration of atmospheric CO2. The interannual variability at play in AABW needs to be carefully considered in the extrapolated estimation of Cant sequestration based on sparse observations over several years.

We use a database of more than 4.4 million observations of ocean pCO2 to investigate oceanic pCO2 growth rates. We use pCO2 measurements, with corresponding sea surface temperature and salinity measurements, to reconstruct alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon to understand what is driving these growth rates in different ocean regions. If the oceanic pCO2 growth rate is faster (slower) than the atmospheric CO2 growth rate, the region can be interpreted as having a decreasing (increasing) atmospheric CO2 uptake. Only the Western subpolar and subtropical North Pacific, and the Southern Ocean are found to have sufficient spatial and temporal observations to calculate the growth rates of oceanic pCO2 in different seasons. Based on these regions, we find the strength of the ocean carbon sink has declined over the last two decades due to a combination of regional drivers (physical and biological). In the subpolar North Pacific reduced atmospheric CO2 uptake in the summer is associated with changes in the biological production, while in the subtropical North Pacific enhanced uptake in winter is associated with enhanced biological production. In the Indian and Pacific sectors of the Southern Ocean a reduced winter atmospheric CO2 uptake is associated with a positive SAM response. Conversely in the more stratified Atlantic Ocean sector enhanced summer uptake is associated with increased biological production and reduced vertical supply. We are not able to separate climate variability and change as the calculated growth rates are at the limit of detection and are associated with large uncertainties. Ongoing sustained observations of global oceanic pCO2 and its drivers, including dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity, are key to detecting and understanding how the ocean carbon sink will evolve in future and what processes are driving this change. Key Points Observationally, few regions have coverage to assess seasonal trends Drivers of oceanic pCO2 growth rate are unique in each ocean basin Investigation of trends seasonally is key to understanding CO2 sink evolution

Observational and atmospheric inversion studies find that the strength of the Southern Ocean carbon dioxide (CO2) sink is not increasing, despite rising atmospheric CO2. However, this is yet to be captured by contemporary coupled‐climate‐carbon‐models used to predict future climate. We show that by accounting for stratospheric ozone depletion in a coupled‐climate‐carbon‐model, the ventilation of carbon rich deep water is enhanced through stronger winds, increasing surface water CO2 at a rate in good agreement with observed trends. We find that Southern Ocean uptake is reduced by 2.47 PgC (1987–2004) and is consistent with atmospheric inversion studies. The enhanced ventilation also accelerates ocean acidification, despite lesser Southern Ocean CO2 uptake. Our results link two important anthropogenic changes: stratospheric ozone depletion and greenhouse gas increases; and suggest that studies of future climate that neglect stratospheric ozone depletion likely overestimate regional and global oceanic CO2 uptake and underestimate the impact of ocean acidification.

The Southern Ocean is a major carbon sink, but knowledge of its variability is limited, especially in the coastal Antarctic. Now, results based on 25 years of observations in the West Antarctic Peninsula show that the carbon sink is increasing rapidly, driven by summertime biological production linked to sea ice dynamics.

Dinitrogen (N 2 ) fixation provides the major source of reactive nitrogen in the open ocean, sustaining biological productivity. The Indian Ocean (IO) covers 22% of the ocean surface, while it only represents 1% of the global diazotroph database. Hence, constraining the sources of nitrogen in the IO is crucial. Here, we compile three decades of N 2 fixation and diazotroph DNA data in the IO. Our analysis reveals basin‐scale yearly rates between ~ 7 and 13 Tg N yr −1 . These rates are in the range of previous modeling‐based estimates but may represent a lower bound estimate due to the lack of data in this basin. Diazotroph variability among sub‐basins may suggest endemicity but needs to be taken with caution due to biased sampling toward certain seasons and uneven spatial coverage. We provide recommendations for a more accurate representation of the IO in the global nitrogen budget and our knowledge of diazotroph biogeography.

Recent studies based on ocean and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) observations, suggesting that the ocean carbon uptake has been reduced, may help explain the increase in the fraction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions that remain in the atmosphere. Is it a response to climate change or a signal of ocean natural variability or both? Regional process analyses are needed to follow the ocean carbon uptake and to enable better attributions of the observed changes. Here, we describe the evolution of the surface ocean CO2 fugacity (fCO2oc) over the period 1993–2008 in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (NASPG). This analysis is based primarily on observations of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA) conducted at different seasons in the NASPG between Iceland and Canada. The fCO2oc trends based on DIC and TA data are also compared with direct fCO2 measurements obtained between 2003 and 2007 in the same region. During winters 1993–2003, the fCO2oc growth rate was 3.7 (±0.6) μatm yr−1, higher than in the atmosphere, 1.8 (±0.1) μatm yr−1. This translates to a reduction of the ocean carbon uptake primarily explained by sea surface warming, up to 0.24 (±0.04) °C yr−1. This warming is a consequence of advection of warm water northward from the North Atlantic into the Irminger basin, which occurred as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index moved into a negative phase in winter 1995/1996. In winter 2001–2008, the fCO2oc rise was particularly fast, between 5.8 (±1.1) and 7.2 (±1.3) μatm yr−1 depending on the region, more than twice the atmospheric growth rate of 2.1 (±0.2) μatm yr−1, and in the winter of 2007–2008 the area was supersaturated with CO2. As opposed to the 1990s, this appears to be almost entirely due to changes in seawater carbonate chemistry, the combination of increasing DIC and decreasing of TA. The rapid fCO2oc increase was not only driven by regional uptake of anthropogenic CO2 but was also likely controlled by a recent increase in convective processes‐vertical mixing in the NASPG and cannot be directly associated with NAO variability. The fCO2oc increase observed in 2001–2008 leads to a significant drop in pH of −0.069 (±0.007) decade−1.