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IntroductionThe relationship between surgical volume and clinical outcomes is complex and varies considerably across surgical specialties. While the role of hospital volume is well-established, the specific contribution of surgeon-level volume and the interaction between these two factors are less clear.ObjectivesThis study investigates the association between surgeon volume and clinical outcomes for surgeons performing breast-conserving surgery for malignant breast cancer, laparoscopic cholecystectomy and surgery for malignant colon cancer.MethodsData from the Lazio Region’s health information systems (2020–2023) were analysed. Primary outcomes included 120-day reinterventions after breast-conserving surgery for breast cancer, 30-day complications after laparoscopic cholecystectomy and 30-day mortality after colon cancer surgery. The association between surgeon volume and outcomes was examined for all surgeons performing at least five procedures annually in Lazio hospitals. A stratified analysis was conducted to assess the impact of hospital volume on the surgeon-volume-outcome relationship, comparing outcomes between surgeons in low-volume and high-volume hospitals. Fractional polynomial and segmented regression models were employed to identify non-linear relationships and potential breakpoints in the surgeon volume-outcome association.ResultsHigher-volume surgeons demonstrated significantly improved outcomes across all three procedures, including lower reintervention rates, fewer complications and reduced mortality. This positive association was further amplified for surgeons practising in high-volume hospitals. Graphical analysis, which involved stratifying the volume-outcome relationship for individual surgeons by hospital volume (high vs low), strongly suggested a synergistic effect between surgeon and hospital volume, clearly illustrating how the benefits of higher surgeon volume were further amplified in high-volume settings.ConclusionsThese findings underscore the critical role of both surgeon-level and hospital-level factors in determining surgical outcomes. Optimising patient care requires a comprehensive approach that considers both individual surgeon performance and the overall quality of the healthcare system. Future research should focus on elucidating the underlying mechanisms driving these associations to inform the development of strategies for improving surgical care delivery.

Animal agriculture has exponentially grown in recent decades in response to the rise in global demand for meat, even in countries like Italy that traditionally eat a Mediterranean, plant-based diet. Globalization related dietary changes are contributing to the epidemic of non-communicable diseases and to the global climate crisis, and are associated with huge carbon and water footprints. The objective of the study is to assess inequalities in health impacts and in attributable greenhouse gases-GHG emissions in Italy by hypothesizing different scenarios of reduction in red and processed meat consumption towards healthier consumption patterns more compliant with the recommendations of the Mediterranean food pyramid. We used demographic and food consumption patterns from national surveys and risk relationships between meat intake and cardiovascular and colorectal cancer mortality from IARC and other meta-analyses. From the baseline data (year 2005-2006, average 406 gr/week beef and 245 gr/week processed meat), we considered hypothetical meat reduction scenarios according to international dietary guidelines such as the Mediterranean pyramid targets. For each geographical area (Northwest, Northeast, Centre, and South) and gender, we calculated the number of avoidable deaths from colorectal cancer, and cardiovascular disease among the adult population. Moreover, years of life gained by the adult population from 2012 to 2030 and changes in life expectancy of the 2012 birth cohort were quantified using gender-specific life tables. GHG emission reductions under Mediterranean scenario were estimated only for beef by applying the Global Warming Potential (GWP) coefficient to total consumption and to a low carbon food substitution in adult diet. The deaths avoidable (as percentage change compared to baseline) according to the three reduction scenarios for beef consumption were between 2.3% and 4.5% for colorectal cancer, and between 2.1% and 4.0% for cardiovascular disease; higher benefits would be observed in Northwestern areas and among males. In parallel, 5% and 6.4% of colorectal cancer and CVD deaths would be avoided if the Italian population ate the advised quantity of processed meat. Life table analysis suggests that the scenario that is fully compliant with the Mediterranean diet model would save 5 million years of life lost prematurely among men and women over the next 18 years and would increase average life expectancy of future generations by over 7 months. Considering the environmental impact, emissions associated with the actual total intake of beef range from 12,900 to 21,800 Gg CO2 eq; emissions saved according to the Mediterranean scenario are in the range 8000-14000 Gg CO2 eq per year. The per capita reduction is 263 KgCO2eq/year/person with higher reductions in Northwestern and Central areas. In Italy, scenarios for reducing beef consumption are consistent with significant health and environmental co-benefits on current and future generations. Results support introducing policies to promote healthier behavior towards red and processed meat in the adult population within an overall balanced and healthy dietary pattern. Interventions should address gender, vulnerable population groups, and geographical differences in order to be more effective.

Living in areas with higher levels of surrounding greenness and access to urban green areas have been associated with beneficial health outcomes. Some studies suggested a beneficial influence on mortality, but the evidence is still controversial. We used longitudinal data from a large cohort to estimate associations of two measures of residential greenness exposure with cause-specific mortality and stroke incidence. We studied a population-based cohort of 1,263,721 residents in Rome aged [Formula: see text], followed from 2001 to 2013. As greenness exposure, we utilized the leaf area index (LAI), which expresses the tree canopy as the leaf area per unit ground surface area, and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) within 300- and [Formula: see text] buffers around home addresses. We estimated the association between the two measures of residential greenness and the outcomes using Cox models, after controlling for relevant individual covariates and contextual characteristics, and explored potential mediation by air pollution [fine particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter [Formula: see text] [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]] and road traffic noise. We observed 198,704 deaths from nonaccidental causes, 81,269 from cardiovascular diseases [CVDs; 29,654 from ischemic heart disease (IHD)], 18,090 from cerebrovascular diseases, and 29,033 incident cases of stroke. Residential greenness, expressed as interquartile range (IQR) increase in LAI within [Formula: see text], was inversely associated with stroke incidence {hazard ratio (HR) 0.977 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.961, 0.994]} and mortality for nonaccidental [HR 0.988 (95% CI: 0.981, 0.994)], cardiovascular [HR 0.984 (95% CI: 0.974, 0.994)] and cerebrovascular diseases [HR 0.964 (95% CI: 0.943, 0.985)]. Similar results were obtained using NDVI with 300- or [Formula: see text] buffers. Living in greener areas was associated with better health outcomes in our study, which could be partly due to reduced exposure to environmental hazards. Further research is required to understand the underlying mechanisms. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2854.

Epidemiological analyses of health risks associated with non-optimal temperature are traditionally based on ground observations from weather stations that offer limited spatial and temporal coverage. Climate reanalysis represents an alternative option that provide complete spatio-temporal exposure coverage, and yet are to be systematically explored for their suitability in assessing temperature-related health risks at a global scale. Here we provide the first comprehensive analysis over multiple regions to assess the suitability of the most recent generation of reanalysis datasets for health impact assessments and evaluate their comparative performance against traditional station-based data. Our findings show that reanalysis temperature from the last ERA5 products generally compare well to station observations, with similar non-optimal temperature-related risk estimates. However, the analysis offers some indication of lower performance in tropical regions, with a likely underestimation of heat-related excess mortality. Reanalysis data represent a valid alternative source of exposure variables in epidemiological analyses of temperature-related risk.

Background Standardized mortality surveillance data, capable of detecting variations in total mortality at population level and not only among the infected, provide an unbiased insight into the impact of epidemics, like COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease). We analysed the temporal trend in total excess mortality and deaths among positive cases of SARS-CoV-2 by geographical area (north and centre-south), age and sex, taking into account the deficit in mortality in previous months. Methods Data from the Italian rapid mortality surveillance system was used to quantify excess deaths during the epidemic, to estimate the mortality deficit during the previous months and to compare total excess mortality with deaths among positive cases of SARS-CoV-2. Data were stratified by geographical area (north vs centre and south), age and sex. Results COVID-19 had a greater impact in northern Italian cities among subjects aged 75–84 and 85+ years. COVID-19 deaths accounted for half of total excess mortality in both areas, with differences by age: almost all excess deaths were from COVID-19 among adults, while among the elderly only one third of the excess was coded as COVID-19. When taking into account the mortality deficit in the pre-pandemic period, different trends were observed by area: all excess mortality during COVID-19 was explained by deficit mortality in the centre and south, while only a 16% overlap was estimated in northern cities, with quotas decreasing by age, from 67% in the 15–64 years old to 1% only among subjects 85+ years old. Conclusions An underestimation of COVID-19 deaths is particularly evident among the elderly. When quantifying the burden in mortality related to COVID-19, it is important to consider seasonal dynamics in mortality. Surveillance data provide an impartial indicator for monitoring the following phases of the epidemic, and may help in the evaluation of mitigation measures adopted.

Background Few studies have explored the role of air pollution in neurodegenerative processes, especially various types of dementia. Our aim was to evaluate the association between long-term exposure to air pollution and first hospitalization for dementia subtypes in a large administrative cohort. Methods We selected 350,844 subjects (free of dementia) aged 65–100 years at inclusion (21/10/2001) and followed them until 31/12/2013. We selected all subjects hospitalized for the first time with primary or secondary diagnoses of various forms of dementia. We estimated the exposure at residence using land use regression models for nitrogen oxides (NOx, NO 2 ) and particulate matter (PM) and a chemical transport model for ozone (O 3 ). We used Cox models to estimate the association between exposure and first hospitalization for dementia and its subtypes: vascular dementia (Vd), Alzheimer’s disease (Ad) and senile dementia (Sd). Results We selected 21,548 first hospitalizations for dementia (7497 for Vd, 7669 for Ad and 7833 for Sd). Overall, we observed a negative association between exposure to NO 2 (10 μg/m 3 ) and dementia hospitalizations (HR = 0.97; 95% CI: 0.96–0.99) and a positive association between exposure to O 3 , NOx and dementia hospitalizations, (O 3 : HR = 1.06; 95% CI: 1.04–1.09 per 10 μg/m 3 ; NOx: HR = 1.01; 95% CI: 1.00–1.02 per 20 μg/m 3 ).H. Exposure to NOx, NO 2 , PM 2.5 , and PM 10 was positively associated with Vd and negatively associated with Ad. Hospitalization for Sd was positively associated with exposure to O 3 (HR = 1.20; 95% CI: 1.15–1.24 per 10 μg/m 3 ). Conclusions Our results showed a positive association between exposure to NOx and O 3 and hospitalization for dementia and a negative association between NO 2 exposure and hospitalization for dementia. In the analysis by subtype, exposure to each pollutants (except O 3 ) demonstrated a positive association with vascular dementia, while O 3 exposure was associated with senile dementia. The results regarding vascular dementia are a clear indication that the brain effects of air pollution are linked with vascular damage.

We studied the potential synergy between air pollution and meteorology and their impact on mortality in nine European cities with data from 2004 to 2010. We used daily series of Apparent Temperature (AT), measurements of particulate matter (PM10), ozone (O3), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and total non-accidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths. We applied Poisson regression for city-specific analysis and random effects meta-analysis to combine city-specific results, separately for the warm and cold seasons. In the warm season, the percentage increase in all deaths from natural causes per °C increase in AT tended to be greater during high ozone days, although this was only significant for all ages when all causes were considered. On low ozone days, the increase in the total daily number of deaths was 1.84% (95% CI 0.87, 2.82), whilst it was 2.20% (95% CI 1.28, 3.13) in the high ozone days per 1 °C increase in AT. Interaction with PM10 was significant for cardiovascular (CVD) causes of death for all ages (2.24% on low PM10 days (95% CI 1.01, 3.47) whilst it is 2.63% (95% CI 1.57, 3.71) on high PM10 days) and for ages 75+. In days with heat waves, no consistent pattern of interaction was observed. For the cold period, no evidence for synergy was found. In conclusion, some evidence of interactive effects between hot temperature and the levels of ozone and PM10 was found, but no consistent synergy could be identified during the cold season.

Background The present study aimed at developing a standardized heat wave definition to estimate and compare the impact on mortality by gender, age and death causes in Europe during summers 1990-2004 and 2003, separately, accounting for heat wave duration and intensity. Methods Heat waves were defined considering both maximum apparent temperature and minimum temperature and classified by intensity, duration and timing during summer. The effect was estimated as percent increase in daily mortality during heat wave days compared to non heat wave days in people over 65 years. City specific and pooled estimates by gender, age and cause of death were calculated. Results The effect of heat waves showed great geographical heterogeneity among cities. Considering all years, except 2003, the increase in mortality during heat wave days ranged from + 7.6% in Munich to + 33.6% in Milan. The increase was up to 3-times greater during episodes of long duration and high intensity. Pooled results showed a greater impact in Mediterranean (+ 21.8% for total mortality) than in North Continental (+ 12.4%) cities. The highest effect was observed for respiratory diseases and among women aged 75-84 years. In 2003 the highest impact was observed in cities where heat wave episode was characterized by unusual meteorological conditions. Conclusions Climate change scenarios indicate that extreme events are expected to increase in the future even in regions where heat waves are not frequent. Considering our results prevention programs should specifically target the elderly, women and those suffering from chronic respiratory disorders, thus reducing the impact on mortality.

In several volcanic areas of Italy, arsenic levels exceed European regulatory limits (10 μg/L in drinking water). There is still uncertainty about health risks from arsenic at low-medium doses (<100 μg/L). A large population-based study using an administrative cohort of residents in the Viterbo province (Central Italy), chronically exposed to low-medium arsenic levels via drinking water, was investigated to evaluate the effects of a lifetime exposure to arsenic on mortality from cancers and chronic diseases. The study population consisted of 165,609 residents of 17 municipalities, followed from 1990 until 2010. Average individual arsenic exposure at the first residence (AsI) was estimated through a space-time modeling approach using residential history and arsenic concentrations from water supply. A time-dependent Cumulative Arsenic dose Indicator (CAI) was calculated, accounting for daily water intake and exposure duration. Mortality Hazard Ratios (HR) were estimated by gender for different diseases using Cox proportional models, adjusting for individual and area-level confounders. A flexible non-parametric approach was used to investigate dose-response relationships. Mean AsI exposure was 19.3 μg/L, and average exposure duration was 39.5 years. Associations of AsI and CAI indicators with several diseases were found, with greatest risks found for lung cancer in both sexes (HR = 2.61 males; HR = 2.09 females), myocardial infarction, peripheral arterial disease and COPD in males (HR = 2.94; HR = 2.44; HR = 2.54 respectively) and diabetes in females (HR = 2.56). For lung cancer and cardiovascular diseases dose-response relationship is modelled by piecewise linear functions revealing effects even for doses lower than 10 μg/L, and no threshold dose value was identified as safe for health. Results provide new evidence for risk assessment of low-medium concentrations of arsenic and contribute to the ongoing debate about the threshold-dose of effect, suggesting that even concentrations below 10 μg/L carry a mortality risk. Policy actions are urgently needed in areas exposed to arsenic like in the Viterbo province, to comply with current EU regulations.

Evidence on the health effects of extreme temperatures and air pollution is copious. However few studies focused on their interaction. The aim of this study is to evaluate daily PM10 and ozone as potential effect modifiers of the relationship between temperature and natural mortality in 25 Italian cities. Time-series analysis was run for each city. To evaluate interaction, a tensor product between mean air temperature (lag 0–3) and either PM10 or ozone (both lag 0–5) was defined and temperature estimates were extrapolated at low, medium, and high levels of pollutants. Heat effects were estimated as percent change in mortality for increases in temperature between 75th and 99th percentiles. Results were pooled by geographical area. Differential temperature-mortality risks by air pollutants were found. For PM10, estimates ranged from 3.9% (low PM10) to 14.1% (high PM10) in the North, from 3.6% to 24.4% in the Center, and from 7.5% to 21.6% in the South. Temperature-related mortality was similarly modified by ozone in northern and central Italy, while no effect modification was observed in the South. This study underlines the synergistic effects of heat and air pollution on mortality. Considering the predicted increase in heat waves and stagnation events in the Mediterranean countries such as Italy, it is time to enclose air pollution within public health heat prevention plans.