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27 result(s) for "Milazzo, Caitlin"
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Are Voter Decision Rules Endogenous to Parties’ Policy Strategies? A Model with Applications to Elite Depolarization in Post-Thatcher Britain
While spatial modelers assume that citizens evaluate parties on the basis of their policy positions, empirical research on American politics suggests that citizens’ party attachments often drive their policy preferences, rather than vice versa. Building on previous findings that partisanship is less salient to British citizens than to Americans, we argue that British citizens predominantly update their partisanship to match their policy beliefs. We further argue that because policy salience declines when parties converge, citizens’ policy beliefs exert diminishing effects on their party evaluations as parties depolarize on a focal policy dimension—i.e., that voter decision rules are an endogenous function of parties’ policy strategies. We find support for these hypotheses via individual-level analyses of British election panel survey data between 1987 and 2001. We also find that the reciprocal policy-partisan effects we identify extend to different subconstituencies of British citizens including the more and less educated and politically engaged.
UKIP
The UK Independence Party (Ukip) is the most significant new force in British politics for a generation. Under the leadership of Nigel Farage, the party has enjoyed a remarkable rise, winning the 2014 European Parliament elections as well as two parliamentary by-elections, and attracting mainstream defectors to achieve major party status. By the time of the 2015 general election, Farage and Ukip stood on the threshold of becoming a major force at Westminster. This account is a must-read for anyone interested in the inside story of Ukip's quest to change British politics during one of the most unpredictable and dramatic elections in recent history. Based on unprecedented access to the party and its key players, the book pulls back the curtain on one of the most intriguing campaigns in living memory. It includes behind the scenes observations from the campaign trail and more than one hundred interviews - with leading Ukip insiders such as Nigel Farage, Douglas Carswell, and Mark Reckless, as well as major donors, strategists, and figures from across the political landscape as they grappled with Ukip's rise. Matthew Goodwin and Caitlin Milazzo reveal what really happened during the 2015 election campaign and in the by-elections and defections which preceded it, providing detailed accounts of the critical moments that shaped both the election itself and British politics more widely. The book also makes extensive use of British Election Study data from over five decades to answer important questions about the rise of Ukip and what it signifies. Who voted for Ukip and why? How are political loyalties in Britain changing over time? What are the deeper currents that have made Ukip's rise possible and will continue to shape its future? And what does the party's campaign for power reveal about the current evolution of British politics and society? UKIP takes readers inside the campaign, telling for the first time the exciting inside story of a new party attempting to redraw the map of British politics.
The South, the Suburbs, and the Vatican Too: Explaining Partisan Change Among Catholics
This paper explains changes in partisanship among Catholics in the last quarter of the 20th Century using a theory of partisan change centered on the contexts in which Catholics lived. Catholics were part of the post-New Deal Democratic coalition, but they have become a swing demographic group. We argue that these changes in partisanship are best explained by changes in elite messages that are filtered through an individual's social network. Those Catholics who lived or moved into the increasingly Republican suburbs and South were the Catholics who were most likely to adopt a non-Democratic partisan identity. Changes in context better explain Catholic partisanship than party abortion policy post Roe v. Wade or ideological sorting. We demonstrate evidence in support of our argument using the ANES cumulative file from 1972 through 2000.
District Competition Matters: How Constituency Competitiveness Shapes Elite and Mass Behavior in Great Britain (and Beyond)
The Downsian model has influenced our approach to studying party/candidate policy strategies and mass-elite policy linkages, by emphasizing the fit between citizens’ policy beliefs and party elites’ policy promises (and behavior). However, while studies on parties’ election strategies and policy representation in the U.S. frequently focus on geographically-based districts, applications to Western Europe have focused almost exclusively on the national level. The reason for this discrepancy is that the conventional wisdom on Western European politics is that all the “action” is at the national level because the unified parliamentary delegations in Western Europe draw voters’ attention to the parties’ national policy images. Though British elections take place under a single member district system, British parties, like their continental counterparts, are highly centralized and feature disciplined parliamentary delegations. However, despite the strong ties between candidates and their parties, the central argument in my book is that there is a payoff to analyzing district-level competition in Britain. Specifically, I offer theoretical arguments and empirical evidence that the degree of district-level competition in Britain affect each of the following: (1) The parties’ incentives to be more responsive to citizens’ preferences when nominating candidates. (2) The parties’ incentives to devote resources to the district-level campaign, which provides information to voters. (3) Citizens’ incentives to become informed about the policy positions of the national-level parties and of the local candidates. Simply put, I find that citizens and political elites behave differently in competitive constituencies than in uncompetitive constituencies, and that these differences have important implications for party strategies, for individual-level voting behavior, and for political representation.