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"Miller, Jennifer A"
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Iceland
An introduction to the landscape, culture, and people of Iceland, with photographs, maps, a description and image of the country's flag, and a fast fact file.
Book
Mask Effectiveness for Preventing Secondary Cases of COVID-19, Johnson County, Iowa, USA
In September of 2020, the Iowa Department of Public Health released guidance stating that persons exposed to someone with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) need not quarantine if the case-patient and the contact wore face masks at the time of exposure. This guidance differed from that issued by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. To determine the best action, we matched exposure information from COVID-19 case investigations with reported test results and calculated the secondary attack rates (SARs) after masked and unmasked exposures. Mask use by both parties reduced the SAR by half, from 25.6% to 12.5%. Longer exposure duration significantly increased SARs. Masks significantly reduced virus transmission when worn by both the case-patient and the contact, but SARs for each group were higher than anticipated. This finding suggests that quarantine after COVID-19 exposure is beneficial even if parties wore masks.
Journal Article
Exploring Spatial Scale, Autocorrelation and Nonstationarity of Bird Species Richness Patterns
In this paper we explore relationships between bird species richness and environmental factors in New York State, focusing particularly on how spatial scale, autocorrelation and nonstationarity affect these relationships. We used spatial statistics, Getis-Ord Gi*(d), to investigate how spatial scale affects the measurement of richness “hot-spots” and “cold-spots” (clusters of high and low species richness, respectively) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) to explore scale dependencies and nonstationarity in the relationships between richness and environmental variables such as climate and plant productivity. Finally, we introduce a geovisualization approach to show how these relationships are affected by spatial scale in order to understand the complex spatial patterns of species richness.
Journal Article
Mapping species distributions : spatial inference and prediction
\"Maps of species' distributions or habitat suitability are required for many aspects of environmental research, resource management and conservation planning. These include biodiversity assessment, reserve design, habitat management and restoration, species and habitat conservation plans and predicting the effects of environmental change on species and ecosystems. The proliferation of methods and uncertainty regarding their effectiveness can be daunting to researchers, resource managers and conservation planners alike. Franklin summarises the methods used in species distribution modeling (also called niche modeling) and presents a framework for spatial prediction of species distributions based on the attributes (space, time, scale) of the data and questions being asked. The framework links theoretical ecological models of species distributions to spatial data on species and environment, and statistical models used for spatial prediction. Providing practical guidelines to students, researchers and practitioners in a broad range of environmental sciences including ecology, geography, conservation biology, and natural resources management.\" --NHBS Environment Bookstore.
Book
Species distribution models
The main goal of species distribution modeling is to identify important underlying factors related to broad-scale ecological patterns in order to make meaningful explanations or accurate predictions. When standard statistical methods such as regression are used to formulate these models, assumptions about the spatial structure of the data and the model parameters are often violated. Autocorrelation and non-stationarity are characteristics of spatial data and models, respectively, and if present and unaccounted for in model development, they can result in poorly specified models as well as inappropriate spatial inference and prediction. While these spatial issues are addressed here in an ecological context using species distribution models, they are broadly relevant to any statistical modeling applications using spatial data.
Journal Article
Local and Landscape Factors Influence Plant-Pollinator Networks and Bee Foraging Behavior across an Urban Corridor
Given widespread concerns over human-mediated bee declines in abundance and species richness, conservation efforts are increasingly focused on maintaining natural habitats to support bee diversity in otherwise resource-poor environments. However, natural habitat patches can vary in composition, impacting landscape-level heterogeneity and affecting plant-pollinator interactions. Plant-pollinator networks, especially those based on pollen loads, can provide valuable insight into mutualistic relationships, such as revealing the degree of pollination specialization in a community; yet, local and landscape drivers of these network indices remain understudied within urbanizing landscapes. Beyond networks, analyzing pollen collection can reveal key information about species-level pollen preferences, providing plant restoration information for urban ecosystems. Through bee collection, vegetation surveys, and pollen load identification across ~350 km of urban habitat, we studied the impact of local and landscape-level management on plant-pollinator networks. We also quantified pollinator preferences for plants within urban grasslands. Bees exhibited higher foraging specialization with increasing habitat heterogeneity and visited fewer flowering species (decreased generality) with increasing semi-natural habitat cover. We also found strong pollinator species-specific flower foraging preferences, particularly for Asteraceae plants. We posit that maintaining native forbs and supporting landscape-level natural habitat cover and heterogeneity can provide pollinators with critical food resources across urbanizing ecosystems.
Journal Article
Incorporating movement in species distribution models
Movement in the context of species distribution models (SDMs) generally refers to a species’ ability to access suitable habitat. Movement ability can be determined by some combination of dispersal constraints or migration rates, landscape factors such as patch configuration, disturbance, and barriers, and demographic factors related to age at maturity, mortality, and fecundity. Including movement ability can result in more precise projections that help to distinguish suitable habitat that is or can be potentially occupied, from suitable habitat that is inaccessible. While most SDM studies have ignored movement or conceptualized it in overly simplistic ways (e.g. no dispersal versus unlimited dispersal), it is increasingly important to incorporate realistic information on movement ability, particularly for studies that aim to project future distributions such as climate change forecasting and invasive species applications. This progress report addresses the increasingly complex ways in which movement has been incorporated in SDM and outlines directions for further study.
Journal Article
An Assessment of Multiple Drivers Determining Woody Species Composition and Structure: A Case Study from the Kalahari, Botswana
Savannas are extremely important socio-economic landscapes, with pastoralist societies relying on these ecosystems to sustain their livelihoods and economy. Globally, there is an increase of woody vegetation in these ecosystems, degrading the potential of these multi-functional landscapes to sustain societies and wildlife. Several mechanisms have been invoked to explain the processes responsible for woody vegetation composition; however, these are often investigated separately at scales not best suited to land-managers, thereby impeding the evaluation of their relative importance. We ran six transects at 15 sites along the Kalahari transect, collecting data on species identity, diversity, and abundance. We used Poisson and Tobit regression models to investigate the relationship among woody vegetation, precipitation, grazing, borehole density, and fire. We identified 44 species across 78 transects, with the highest species richness and abundance occurring at Kuke (middle of the rainfall gradient). Precipitation was the most important environmental variable across all species and various morphological groups, while increased borehole density and livestock resulted in lower bipinnate species abundance, contradicting the consensus that these managed features increase the presence of such species. Rotating cattle between boreholes subsequently reduces the impact of trampling and grazing on the soil and maintains and/or reduces woody vegetation abundance.
Journal Article
Virtual species distribution models
Species distribution models (SDMs) have become a dominant paradigm for quantifying species-environment relationships, and both the models and their outcomes have seen widespread use in conservation studies, particularly in the context of climate change research. With the growing interest in SDMs, extensive comparative studies have been undertaken. However, few generalizations and recommendations have resulted from these empirical studies, largely due to the confounding effects of differences in and interactions among the statistical methods, species traits, data characteristics, and accuracy metrics considered. This progress report addresses ‘virtual species distribution models’: the use of spatially explicit simulated data to represent a ‘true’ species distribution in order to evaluate aspects of model conceptualization and implementation. Simulating a ‘true’ species distribution, or a virtual species distribution, and systematically testing how these aspects affect SDMs, can provide an important baseline and generate new insights into how these issues affect model outcomes.
Journal Article