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Crisis bargaining literature has predominantly used formal and qualitative methods to debate the relative efficacy of actions, public words, and private words. These approaches have overlooked the reality that policymakers are bombarded with information and struggle to adduce actual signals from endless noise. Material actions are therefore more effective than any diplomatic communication in shaping elites’ perceptions. Moreover, while ostensibly “costless,” private messages provide a more precise communication channel than public and “costly” pronouncements. Over 18,000 declassified documents from the Berlin Crisis of 1958–63 reflecting private statements, public statements, and White House evaluations of Soviet resolve are digitized and processed using statistical learning techniques to assess these claims. The results indicate that material actions have greater influence on the White House than either public or private statements; that public statements are noisier than private statements; and that private statements have a larger effect on evaluations of resolve than public statements.

Mental fatigue is a common phenomenon in modern people, especially after a long period of mental work. Individuals frequently have to make critical decisions when in a mentally fatigued state. As an important and complex cognitive function, risk decision-making might be influenced by mental fatigue, which is consequent with increased distraction and poor information processing. However, how mental fatigue shapes individuals’ decision-making remains relatively unclear. The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of mental fatigue on risk decision-making performance and risk-preference in a simple gambling task, using both behavioral methods and event-related potential techniques. Forty young adults were divided into a mental fatigue group and a no-fatigue group and participated in the experiments. Results showed that individuals with mental fatigue tended to be more risk-averse than those without fatigue when facing risk options. The P300 amplitudes were smaller and FRN amplitudes were larger in the mental fatigue group than in the no-fatigue group. These findings provide insight into a relationship between mental fatigue and risk decision-making, from the perspective of the neurological mechanism.

The potential of human factors and ergonomics (HFE) contributions to business performances is underestimated. Companies have a narrow understanding of ergonomics and do not perceive it as a strategic partner. In order to call for attention within the HFE community and in the business world, the authors conducted a series of interviews with eleven leading HFE experts on their visions of HFE as a strategic aid to business. Results indicate the challenges and issues along with the opportunities and activities for cooperation between HFE professionals and business managers. The research illustrates examples of the crucial changes that must take place for the enhancement of HFE values and opens the floor for it as a strategic partner to business managers. HFE experts are recommended as key players and responsible actors for implementation of the changes with the aim of repositioning HFE within businesses.

Animals must constantly scan their environment for imminent threats to their safety. However, they must also integrate their past experiences across long timescales to assess the potential recurrence of new threats. Though visual inputs are critical for the detection of environmental danger, whether and how visual information shapes an animal’s assessment of whether a new threat is likely to reappear in a given context is unknown. In this work, we developed a behavioral assessment of long-term threat avoidance behavior where animals will avoid a familiar location where they previously experienced a single threat exposure. This avoidance behavior is highly sensitive and lasts for multiple days. Intriguingly, we find that the melanopsin-expressing, intrinsically photosensitive retinal ganglion cells tune this behavior via a perihabenula-nucleus accumbens circuit distinct from canonical visual threat detection circuits in male mice. These findings define a long-term threat avoidance behavior that is shaped by a defined retinal cell type based on prior experience. In this study, the authors describe how light shapes a long-term threat avoidance behavior via a visual circuit linking the eye with the limbic system in mice.

Contemporary studies of conflict have adopted approaches that minimize the importance of negotiation during war or treat it as a constant and mechanical activity. This is strongly related to the lack of systematic data that track and illustrate the complex nature of wartime diplomacy. I address these issues by creating and exploring a new daily-level data set of negotiations in all interstate wars from 1816 to the present. I find strong indications that post-1945 wars feature more frequent negotiations and that these negotiations are far less predictive of war termination. Evidence suggests that increased international pressures for peace and stability after World War II, especially emanating from nuclear weapons and international alliances, account for this trend. These original data and insights establish a dynamic research agenda that enables a more policy-relevant study of conflict management, highlights a historical angle to conflict resolution, and speaks to the utility of viewing diplomacy as an essential dimension to understanding war.

Extant scholarship on interstate war and conflict resolution predominantly utilizes formal models, case studies, and statistical models with wars as the unit of analysis to assess the impact of battlefield activity on war duration and termination. As such, longstanding views of war have not been tested systematically using intraconflict measures, and deeper studies of war dynamics have also been hampered. I address these gaps by creating and introducing the Interstate War Battle (IWB) dataset, which captures the outcomes and dates of 1,708 battles across 97 interstate wars since 1823. This article describes the sources used to create these data, provides definitions, and presents descriptive statistics for the basic battle data and several daily-level measures constructed from them. I then use the data to test the implications of two major theoretical perspectives on conflict termination: the informational view, which emphasizes convergence in beliefs through battlefield activity; and Zartman’s ripeness theory, which highlights costly stalemates in fighting. I find suggestive evidence for informational views and little support for ripeness theory: new battlefield outcomes promote negotiated settlements, while battlefield stagnation undermines them. The IWB dataset has significant implications, highlights future research topics, and motivates a renewed research agenda on the empirical study of conflict.

The aim of this study was to analyze and provide an in-depth improvement priority for medication adverse events. Thus, the Human Factor Analysis and Classification System with subfactors was used in this study to analyze the adverse events. Subsequently, the improvement priority for the subfactors was determined using the hybrid approach in terms of the Analytical Hierarchy Process and the fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution. In Of the 157 medical adverse events selected from the Taiwan Patient-safety Reporting system, 25 cases were identified as medication adverse events. The Human Factor Analysis and Classification System and root cause analysis were used to analyze the error factors and subfactors that existed in the medication adverse events. Following the analysis, the Analytical Hierarchy Process and the fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution were used to determine the improvement priority for subfactors. The results showed that the decision errors, crew resource management, inadequate supervision, and organizational climate contained more types of subfactors than other error factors in each category. In the current study, 16 improvement priorities were identified. According to the results, the improvement priorities can assist medical staff, researchers, and decisionmakers in improving medication process deficiencies efficiently.

How do racial stereotypes affect perceptions in foreign policy? Race and racism as topics have long been marginalized in the study of international relations but are receiving renewed attention. In this article we assess the role of implicit racial bias in internal, originally classified assessments by the US foreign policy bureaucracy during the Cold War. We use a combination of dictionary-based and supervised machine learning techniques to identify the presence of four racial tropes in a unique corpus of intelligence documents: almost 5,000 President's Daily Briefs given to Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, and Ford. We argue and find that entries about countries that the US deemed “racialized Others”—specifically, countries in the Global South, newly independent states, and some specific regional groupings—feature an especially large number of racial tropes. Entries about foreign developments in these places are more likely to feature interpretations that infantilize, invoke animal-based analogies, or imply irrationality or belligerence. This association holds even when accounting for the presence of conflict, the regime type of the country being analyzed, the invocation of leaders, and the topics being discussed. The article makes two primary contributions. First, it adds to the revival of attention to race but gives special emphasis to implicit racialized thinking and its appearance in bureaucratic settings. Second, we show the promise of new tools for identifying racial and other forms of implicit bias in foreign policy texts.

Purpose - This paper sets out to present a reappraisal on advanced planning and scheduling (APS) systems in industrial settings and propose an effective approach for APS implementation.Design methodology approach - A case study approach is adopted, and a research framework comprising human-, technological-, and organizational-dimensions is developed to analyze the evidence database which includes business flows, system design documents, archival records, post-system assessment, participant-observation and semi-structured interviews.Findings - The findings indicate that real-world production planning problems are ill-defined, complex and dynamic. A post-implementation evaluation reveals major pitfalls in the technology-dominant approach, whose negative ramifications are usually overlooked. Besides, these APS implementation pitfalls are found to be attributable to the real-world context, human factors and organizational aspects.Research limitations implications - Despite advances in information technology (IT) and computer modeling techniques, humans still play critical roles in the production-planning processes - especially in a complex and dynamic manufacturing environment where incomplete, ambiguous, inconsistent and untimely data make automatic planning unrealistic. A rational human-computer collaboration scheme under an effective organizational structure would be in a better position to take advantage of the IT.Originality value - This paper presents a humans-technology-organization-framework of real planning systems, which is employed to analyze a case of APS implementation. Practical insights are extracted as a result of this field research, and a realist approach is proposed to cope with the problems and pitfalls of APS implementation in industrial settings.