Explore the vast range of titles available.

Regional-scale precipitation responses over Indonesia to major climate modes in the tropical Indo–Pacific Oceans, namely canonical El Niño, El Niño Modoki, and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), and how the responses are related to large-scale moisture convergences are investigated. The precipitation responses, analyzed using a high-spatial-resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) terrestrial precipitation dataset for the period 1960–2007, exhibit differences between the dry (July–September) and wet (November–April) seasons. Canonical El Niño strongly reduces precipitation in central to eastern Indonesia from the dry season to the early wet season and northern Indonesia in the wet season. El Niño Modoki also reduces precipitation in central to eastern Indonesia during the dry season, but conversely increases precipitation in western Indonesia in the wet season. Moisture flux analysis indicates that corresponding to the dry (wet) season precipitation reduction due to the canonical El Niño and El Niño Modoki anomalous divergence occurs around the southern (northern) edge of the convergence zone when one of the two edges is located near the equator (10°S–15°N) associated with their seasonal migration. This largely explains the seasonality and regionality of precipitation responses to canonical El Niño and El Niño Modoki. IOD reduces precipitation in southwestern Indonesia in the dry season, associated with anomalous moisture flux divergence. The seasonality of precipitation response to IOD is likely to be controlled by the seasonality of local sea surface temperature anomalies in the eastern pole of the IOD.

The sea surface temperature (SST) of the Oyashio region in boreal summer abruptly increased in 2010 and high summertime SST repeated every year until 2016. Observations and an ocean reanalysis show that this marine heatwave occurred not only at the surface but also at deeper depths down to 200 m. Furthermore, salinity in summer also increased in parallel with the temperature. The rises in temperature and salinity indicate the strengthening of the Kuroshio water influence. The sea surface height and velocity show that the southward intrusion of the Oyashio near the coast in summer weakened from 2010 accompanied by an increase in anticyclonic eddies from the Kuroshio Extension. The much more frequent existence of anticyclonic eddies to the east of the first intrusion of the Oyashio in summer is closely associated with the weakening of the first intrusion and the strengthening of the second intrusion. It is suggested that the rise in the water temperature could increase a catch of yellowtail ( Seriola quinqueradiata ) in northern Japan.

The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the dominant year-round pattern of monthly North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability, is an important target of ongoing research within themeteorological and climate dynamics communities and is central to the work of many geologists, ecologists, natural resource managers, and social scientists. Research over the last 15 years has led to an emerging consensus: the PDO is not a single phenomenon, but is instead the result of a combination of different physical processes, including both remote tropical forcing and local North Pacific atmosphere–ocean interactions, which operate on different time scales to drive similar PDO-like SST anomaly patterns. How these processes combine to generate the observed PDO evolution, including apparent regime shifts, is shown using simple autoregressive models of increasing spatial complexity. Simulations of recent climate in coupled GCMs are able to capture many aspects of the PDO, but do so based on a balance of processes often more independent of the tropics than is observed. Finally, it is suggested that the assessment of PDO-related regional climate impacts, reconstruction of PDO-related variability into the past with proxy records, and diagnosis of Pacific variability within coupled GCMs should all account for the effects of these different processes, which only partly represent the direct forcing of the atmosphere by North Pacific Ocean SSTs.

Sea surface temperature (SST) prediction based on the multi-model seasonal forecast with numerous ensemble members have more useful skills to estimate the possibility of climate events than individual models. Hence, we assessed SST predictability in the North Pacific (NP) from multi-model seasonal forecasts. We used 23 years of hindcast data from three seasonal forecasting systems in the Copernicus Climate Change Service to estimate the prediction skill based on temporal correlation. We evaluated the predictability of the SST from the ensemble members' width spread, and co-variability between the ensemble mean and observation. Our analysis revealed that areas with low prediction skills were related to either the large spread of ensemble members or the ensemble members not capturing the observation within their spread. The large spread of ensemble members reflected the high forecast uncertainty, as exemplified in the Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension region in July. The ensemble members not capturing the observation indicates the model bias; thus, there is room for improvements in model prediction. On the other hand, the high prediction skills of the multi-model were related to the small spread of ensemble members that captures the observation, as in the central NP in January. Such high predictability is linked to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) via teleconnection.

Diurnal cycles of precipitation and lightning are investigated by analyzing rain rates of the TRMM3G68 dataset, consisting of Precipitation Radar and Microwave Imager data only; rain rates of Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP), for which infrared (IR) data are also used; lightning flash rates observed by TRMM Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS); and lightning stroke rates of World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) over the tropics. Diurnal amplitudes relative to averages are generally larger for lightning than for precipitation. Over ocean, relative amplitudes are stronger in the stratocumulus deck region in the southeast Pacific than those over typical ocean regions. The phase of GSMaP is substantially delayed to TRMM3G68 due to the phase-delay problem of IR-based estimation. The diurnal peaks tend to occur between 1400 and 1800 LST over the continent after spatial averaging with a phase leading order of TRMM3G68, LIS, and WWLLN, and between 0000 and 0700 LST over oceanic regions where diurnal cycles are prominent in all datasets. Off-equatorward phase propagations are found in the precipitation in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Over selected coastal regions, all data exhibit consistent oceanward phase propagation with the longest, medium, and shortest phase propagation distances for TRMM3G68 precipitation, WWLLN lightning, and LIS lightning, respectively, with a phase leading order of LIS, WWLLN, and TRMM3G68. The summertime diurnal cycle over the Gulf Stream also exhibits oceanward phase propagation, but with strong amplitude enhancement over the Gulf Stream. Diurnal cycle amplitude is also enhanced over the Kuroshio in the East China Sea in the baiu–mei-yu rainy season.

Two decades of high-resolution satellite observations and climate modeling studies have indicated strong ocean–atmosphere coupled feedback mediated by ocean mesoscale processes, including semipermanent and meandrous SST fronts, mesoscale eddies, and filaments. The air–sea exchanges in latent heat, sensible heat, momentum, and carbon dioxide associated with this so-called mesoscale air–sea interaction are robust near the major western boundary currents, Southern Ocean fronts, and equatorial and coastal upwelling zones, but they are also ubiquitous over the global oceans wherever ocean mesoscale processes are active. Current theories, informed by rapidly advancing observational and modeling capabilities, have established the importance of mesoscale and frontal-scale air–sea interaction processes for understanding large-scale ocean circulation, biogeochemistry, and weather and climate variability. However, numerous challenges remain to accurately diagnose, observe, and simulate mesoscale air–sea interaction to quantify its impacts on large-scale processes. This article provides a comprehensive review of key aspects pertinent to mesoscale air–sea interaction, synthesizes current understanding with remaining gaps and uncertainties, and provides recommendations on theoretical, observational, and modeling strategies for future air–sea interaction research.

The future change in equatorial upwelling between 1971–2000 and 2071–2100 is investigated using data from 24 coupled climate models. The multimodel ensemble (MME) mean exhibits substantial equatorial upwelling decrease in the eastern Pacific and weaker decrease in the western Atlantic Ocean. TheMMEmean of upwelling change and intermodel variation of that are decomposed into distinct isopycnal and diapycnal components. In the Pacific, the diapycnal upwelling decreases near the surface, associated with a weakened Ekman pumping. The isopycnal upwelling decreases at depths of 75–200m around the core of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) due to flattening of the density layer in which it flows. Both the weakened Ekman pumping and the EUC flattening are induced by the locally weakened trade wind over the eastern Pacific basin. In the equatorial Atlantic, both the change in MME mean and the intermodel variation of upwellings are significantly related to the weakened trade wind and enhanced stratification, although these drivers are not independent. The results for the Pacific Ocean imply that future reduction in upwelling may have impacts at different depths by different mechanisms. In particular, the rapid warming of sea surface temperature in the eastern Pacific basin may be mainly caused by the near-surface diapycnal upwelling reduction rather than isopycnal upwelling reduction associated EUC flattening, which is important at deeper levels.

The intraseasonal oscillation of air temperature over Eurasia during boreal summer can cause extreme meteorological events such as heatwaves, which pose wide-spread and substantial risks on human livelihoods. Although the quasi-stationary nature of the Eurasian intraseasonal oscillations during boreal summer has been explored has been studied, its propagating properties and connection with heatwaves still remain elusive. Therefore, in this study, we aim to investigate the propagating oscillation in air temperature over Eurasia during boreal summer and its linkage with HWs. First, we examine eastward propagation signals using complex empirical orthogonal function (CEOF) method. According to the temperature budget analysis, it is found that the horizontal temperature advection plays a critical role in driving this eastward propagation, while the diabatic heating partly compensates. Subsequently, by employing a metric designed to quantify the intensity of propagation signal of air temperature intraseasonal oscillation, a total of 9 years with strong propagating signals are identified. A close association between the propagating HWs and reconstructed air temperature anomalies can be observed. Our results can reinforce the dynamical understanding of the summer air temperature intraseasonal propagating oscillation over Eurasia, and it may also contribute to future monitoring and forecasting capabilities.

This study investigated the relationship between the observed and simulated dissolved oxygen (O 2 ) inventory changes in the North Pacific by analyzing an observational dataset and the outputs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5/6) between 1958 and 2005. A total of 204 ensembles from 20 models were analyzed. Many of the models in the North Pacific subarctic region have higher climatological O 2 concentrations than observed at deeper water depths. Therefore, the negative trend of O 2 inventories tends to be larger, and in fact, several model ensemble members have a larger negative trend in O 2 inventories than observed. The variability among model ensemble members is more influenced by the uncertainty due to internal variability than by the uncertainty resulting from model dependency. An inter-model empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis revealed that the different simulated magnitudes of the negative O 2 trend is closely associated with the first EOF mode, and ensemble members with strong negative trends are characterized by large oxygen reduction in the subarctic North Pacific, especially around the boundaries between the North Pacific Ocean and the Sea of Okhotsk as well as the Bering Seas. The modeled strong O 2 decrease in the subarctic North Pacific is consistent with the spatial pattern of the observed O 2 trend. Further analysis of climate models indicated that the O 2 decrease in the subarctic region was primarily caused by physical factors. This conclusion is supported by the significantly high correlation is present between the potential temperature and O 2 inventory trend in the subarctic region, whereas an insignificant correlation coefficient is present between dissolved organic carbon and the O 2 inventory trend. However, the observations have a larger ratio of O 2 inventory trend to temperature trend than any of the ensembles, and thus the relationship between O 2 and temperature change in the subarctic North Pacific seen in the CMIP5/6 simulations is not exact.

The fact that ocean currents must flow parallel to the coast leads to the dynamics of coastal sea level being quite different from the dynamics in the open ocean. The coastal influence of open-ocean dynamics (dynamics associated with forcing which occurs in deep water, beyond the continental slope) therefore involves a hand-over between the predominantly geostrophic dynamics of the interior ocean and the ageostrophic dynamics which must occur at the coast. An understanding of how this hand-over occurs can be obtained by considering the combined role of coastal trapped waves and bottom friction. We here review understanding of coastal trapped waves, which propagate cyclonically around ocean basins along the continental shelf and slope, at speeds which are fast compared to those of baroclinic planetary waves and currents in the open ocean (excluding the large-scale barotropic mode). We show that this results in coastal sea-level signals on western boundaries which, compared to the nearby open-ocean signals, are spatially smoothed, reduced in amplitude, and displaced along the coast in the direction of propagation of coastal trapped waves. The open-ocean influence on eastern boundaries is limited to signals propagating polewards from the equatorial waveguide (although a large-scale diffusive influence may also play a role). This body of work is based on linearised equations, but we also discuss the nonlinear case. We suggest that a proper consideration of nonlinear terms may be very important on western boundaries, as the competition between advection by western boundary currents and a counter-propagating influence of coastal trapped waves has the potential to lead to sharp gradients in coastal sea level where the two effects come into balance.