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The spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has been unprecedented in its speed and effects. Interruption of its transmission to prevent widespread community transmission is critical because its effects go beyond the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths and affect the health system capacity to provide other essential services. Highlighting the implications of such a situation, the predictions presented here are derived using a Markov chain model, with the transition states and country specific probabilities derived based on currently available knowledge. A risk of exposure, and vulnerability index are used to make the probabilities country specific. The results predict a high risk of exposure in states of small size, together with Algeria, South Africa and Cameroon. Nigeria will have the largest number of infections, followed by Algeria and South Africa. Mauritania would have the fewest cases, followed by Seychelles and Eritrea. Per capita, Mauritius, Seychelles and Equatorial Guinea would have the highest proportion of their population affected, while Niger, Mauritania and Chad would have the lowest. Of the World Health Organization's 1 billion population in Africa, 22% (16%–26%) will be infected in the first year, with 37 (29 – 44) million symptomatic cases and 150 078 (82 735–189 579) deaths. There will be an estimated 4.6 (3.6–5.5) million COVID-19 hospitalisations, of which 139 521 (81 876–167 044) would be severe cases requiring oxygen, and 89 043 (52 253–106 599) critical cases requiring breathing support. The needed mitigation measures would significantly strain health system capacities, particularly for secondary and tertiary services, while many cases may pass undetected in primary care facilities due to weak diagnostic capacity and non-specific symptoms. The effect of avoiding widespread and sustained community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is significant, and most likely outweighs any costs of preventing such a scenario. Effective containment measures should be promoted in all countries to best manage the COVID-19 pandemic.

Immunisation is crucial to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals for maternal and child mortality reduction. As Africa marks the 50th anniversary of implementing immunisation programmes, it is imperative to review progress, address challenges and strategise for the future. Using available programme data, this article examines the progress made in achieving the immunisation milestones in the region, describes the success factors and lessons learnt and makes recommendations on how to immunise every African child in the coming years. The article concludes that despite significant improvements in childhood immunisation coverage, the region still falls short of global targets, with disparities across countries. Contributing factors include, among others, weak health systems, rapid population growth without corresponding increases in service delivery, vaccine hesitancy, inadequate sustainable financing and disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Moving forward, efforts to attain the global immunisation coverage milestones should focus on building on the past progress, addressing the COVID-19 setbacks, leveraging new technologies and securing sustainable immunisation funding. This can be achieved by accelerating the implementation of the Immunization Agenda 2030 and the Addis Ababa Declaration on Immunization commitments. The support of all stakeholders including political leaders, public health professionals, the vaccine industry, regional organisations, academia, donors and healthcare workers is essential for this noble endeavour.

Humanitarian needs are escalating globally, with around 300 million people requiring assistance—over half in Africa. These crises are increasingly driven by conflict, climate-related disasters and emergencies and economic instability, all severely impacting public health and disrupting health systems. A new approach is essential to address root causes of humanitarian crises and develop durable solutions. In response to this need, the WHO developed a framework for health in the humanitarian–development–peace nexus (HDPN) in Africa. This framework was informed by literature reviews and consultations with key stakeholders across UN and wider humanitarian sector (including the African Union bodies, WHO offices and relevant non-governmental organisations). The framework presents a structured method for countries to integrate health across the HDPN, emphasising policy alignment, the need for sustainable financing, strong monitoring systems and adaptable governance. It defines clear roles for WHO, the African Union Commission, regional economic communities and authorities in countries as applicable. Key areas for operationalising the framework include health sector development planning, budgeting, financing, intersectoral coordination, services delivery and monitoring and evaluation. It also recommends integrated strategic actions focusing on health across humanitarian, development and peacebuilding efforts, emphasising synergy and co-benefits from this nexus approach. With a growing number of countries facing humanitarian crises, fragility and conflict, urgent implementation of this framework is vital to build resilience and improve health outcomes across Africa and beyond.

In addition to facing the risk of exposure to the pathogen, they work long hours under psychologically stressful conditions, and often return to fearful communities who may even subject them to discrimination and violence, and where they risk bringing infections home to their loved ones. A March 2020 survey of hospital staff in Wuhan, China, found high rates of reported distress (71%), depression (50%), anxiety (45%) and insomnia (34%).7 A recent report by the Partnership for Evidence-Based Response to COVID-19 (PERC) sheds further light on the situation. 2 Evans DK, Goldstein M, Popova A. The next wave of deaths from Ebola? the impact of health care worker mortality. world bank group, Africa region, 2015. Factors associated with mental health outcomes among health care workers exposed to coronavirus disease 2019.

Countries of the World Health Organization (WHO) African Region have experienced a wide range of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemics. This study aimed to identify predictors of the timing of the first COVID-19 case and the per capita mortality in WHO African Region countries during the first and second pandemic waves and to test for associations with the preparedness of health systems and government pandemic responses. Using a region-wide, country-based observational study, we found that the first case was detected earlier in countries with more urban populations, higher international connectivity and greater COVID-19 test capacity but later in island nations. Predictors of a high first wave per capita mortality rate included a more urban population, higher pre-pandemic international connectivity and a higher prevalence of HIV. Countries rated as better prepared and having more resilient health systems were worst affected by the disease, the imposition of restrictions or both, making any benefit of more stringent countermeasures difficult to detect. Predictors for the second wave were similar to the first. Second wave per capita mortality could be predicted from that of the first wave. The COVID-19 pandemic highlights unanticipated vulnerabilities to infectious disease in Africa that should be taken into account in future pandemic preparedness planning. A new study from the WHO African Region identifies features of countries that predict timing of the first case and the per capita mortality rate for the first and second waves of the COVID-19 epidemics.

This study analysed the reported incidence of COVID-19 and associated epidemiological and socio-economic factors in the WHO African region. Data from COVID-19 confirmed cases and SARS-CoV-2 tests reported to the WHO by Member States between 25 February and 31 December 2020 and publicly available health and socio-economic data were analysed using univariate and multivariate binomial regression models. The overall cumulative incidence was 1846 cases per million population. Cape Verde (21 350 per million), South Africa (18 060 per million), Namibia (9840 per million), Eswatini (8151 per million) and Botswana (6044 per million) recorded the highest cumulative incidence, while Benin (260 per million), Democratic Republic of Congo (203 per million), Niger (141 cases per million), Chad (133 per million) and Burundi (62 per million) recorded the lowest. Increasing percentage of urban population (β = −0.011, P = 0.04) was associated with low cumulative incidence, while increasing number of cumulative SARS-CoV-2 tests performed per 10 000 population (β = 0.0006, P = 0.006) and the proportion of population aged 15–64 years (adjusted β = 0.174, P < 0.0001) were associated with high COVID-19 cumulative incidence. With limited testing capacities and overwhelmed health systems, these findings highlight the need for countries to increase and decentralise testing capacities and adjust testing strategies to target most at-risk populations.

Africa and most of the global south continue to experience a striking burden of communicable diseases, neglected tropical diseases, and high rates of maternal and child mortality, as well as disastrous internecine conflicts and floods. While Africa has been making steady progress in addressing communicable diseases, it now faces new threats from highly infectious pathogens, specifically those with a human-to-animal interface such as the 2014 Ebola virus disease outbreak in West Africa. Moreover, with weak health systems in many of its countries, Africa is the only continent where poverty rates remain high at around 48% according to the Millennium Development Goals progress report (United Nations Development Programme, 2015; World Health Organization [WHO], 2008). The emergence of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) in Africa threatens to retard the social and economic gains that have been made to date. The four major modifiable behavioral risk factors for NCDs are tobacco use, harmful use of alcohol, physical inactivity, and unhealthy diet. In addition, the four key metabolic risk factors known to increase the risk of NCDs are hypertension, overweight/obesity, hyperglycemia (high blood glucose levels), and hyperlipidemia (high levels of fat in the blood). This article discusses the key determinants of NCDs, implications for NCD control and prevention in Africa, and the nine global targets contained in the \"Global Action Plan for Prevention and Control of NCDs 2013-2020\" (WHO, 2013) that should guide all actions aimed at addressing NCDs in Africa and the global south.

A meeting was convened by WHO in Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) on June 9-10, 2016, which brought together heads of regulatory and research agencies from 20 African countries, the African Union, Regional Economic Community secretariats, the World Bank, product developers, regulators from Europe and North America, and donors. The primary objective was to obtain stakeholder alignment on the new vision, and the new terms of reference were reviewed and debated.