Catalogue Search | MBRL
Search Results Heading
Explore the vast range of titles available.
MBRLSearchResults
-
DisciplineDiscipline
-
Is Peer ReviewedIs Peer Reviewed
-
Item TypeItem Type
-
SubjectSubject
-
YearFrom:-To:
-
More FiltersMore FiltersSourceLanguage
Done
Filters
Reset
99
result(s) for
"Mohammed, Shafiu"
Sort by:
Tracking spending on malaria by source in 106 countries, 2000–16: an economic modelling study
by
Micah, Angela E
,
Hay, Simon I
,
Mousavi, Seyyed Meysam
in
Charities
,
Developing Countries
,
Drug Costs - statistics & numerical data
2019
Sustaining achievements in malaria control and making progress toward malaria elimination requires coordinated funding. We estimated domestic malaria spending by source in 106 countries that were malaria-endemic in 2000–16 or became malaria-free after 2000.
We collected 36 038 datapoints reporting government, out-of-pocket (OOP), and prepaid private malaria spending, as well as malaria treatment-seeking, costs of patient care, and drug prices. We estimated government spending on patient care for malaria, which was added to government spending by national malaria control programmes. For OOP malaria spending, we used data reported in National Health Accounts and estimated OOP spending on treatment. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression was used to ensure estimates were complete and comparable across time and to generate uncertainty.
In 2016, US$4·3 billion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 4·2–4·4) was spent on malaria worldwide, an 8·5% (95% UI 8·1–8·9) per year increase over spending in 2000. Since 2000, OOP spending increased 3·8% (3·3–4·2) per year, amounting to $556 million (487–634) or 13·0% (11·6–14·5) of all malaria spending in 2016. Governments spent $1·2 billion (1·1–1·3) or 28·2% (27·1–29·3) of all malaria spending in 2016, increasing 4·0% annually since 2000. The source of malaria spending varied depending on whether countries were in the malaria control or elimination stage.
Tracking global malaria spending provides insight into how far the world is from reaching the malaria funding target of $6·6 billion annually by 2020. Because most countries with a high burden of malaria are low income or lower-middle income, mobilising additional government resources for malaria might be challenging.
The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Journal Article
Association between self-reported gender-based discrimination and maternal mortality rates: results of an ecological multi-level analysis across nine countries in Sub-Saharan Africa
2025
Background
Sub-Saharan Africa suffers from the highest maternal mortality ratio (MMR) in the world, with 542 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2017, relative to a global ratio of 211. Reducing gender-based discrimination (GBD) and increasing the empowerment of women and girls have recently been recognized as prerequisites for improving maternal health. Previous studies have shown GBD to result in low utilization of maternal health services and poorer quality of care. However, limited research is available on the relationship between GBD and maternal mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Therefore, the objective of this study was to assess whether GBD is associated with maternal mortality in SSA.
Methods
We investigated the association between self-reported GBD and maternal mortality in an ecological study. We used data from two surveys: the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and the Afrobarometer. Data refer to 78 sub-national regions, located in nine Sub-Saharan African countries (Benin, Malawi, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe). Data were analyzed using a two-level linear regression model with random intercept. The regression controlled for covariates at region- and country-level.
Results
The proportion of women who reported experiencing GBD varied between 0% in several regions in Benin, Mali, Senegal, South Africa, and Zimbabwe and 24·7% in Atacora, Benin. We identified a positive association between the proportion of women who reported experiencing GBD in a region in the past year and MMR (β 0.88, CI [0.65; 1.12]). A 1% increase in the proportion of women experiencing GBD resulted in an increase of the MMR by nearly two, meaning, an additional two more maternal deaths per 100,000 live births. This association was even more pronounced after adjusting for region-level covariates, but did not change with the inclusion of country-level covariates (β 1.95, CI [1.71; 2.19]).
Conclusions
The study’s findings show that the rate of self-reported GBD is associated with maternal mortality in a region, even after controlling for other factors that are known to influence maternal deaths. However, our model does not rule out endogeneity. Further research is needed to unravel causal pathways between GBD and maternal mortality.
Journal Article
An exploratory study of outpatient medication knowledge and satisfaction with medication counselling at selected hospital pharmacies in Northwestern Nigeria
by
Danjuma, Nuhu M.
,
Labaran, Kamilu S.
,
Abdu-Aguye, Samirah N.
in
Ambulatory medical care
,
Caregivers
,
Counseling
2022
Medication counselling is an important activity that improves patient therapeutic outcomes. After this activity has been carried out, patients should be satisfied with counselling, and possess adequate knowledge about their medications.
To describe outpatient/caregiver medication knowledge and satisfaction with medication counselling at the main outpatient pharmacies of eight public secondary and tertiary hospitals located in two states in Northwestern Nigeria.
Exit interviews were conducted from December 2019 to March 2020 with randomly sampled patients/caregivers who had just been dispensed one or more prescription medications from the main pharmacies of the hospitals. The questionnaire used contained 31 questions in three sections. The first section collected demographic information. The second section assessed respondents' experiences and overall satisfaction with the counselling they had received. The last section evaluated respondents' knowledge of one randomly selected prescription medication that had been dispensed to them. Data collected were coded and analyzed to generate descriptive statistics. To explore associations between respondent characteristics and overall satisfaction, non-parametric tests were used, and statistical significance set at p<0.05.
A total of 684 patients/caregivers were interviewed. Majority of respondents agreed that the time spent (97.1%) and quantity of information (99.1%) provided during counselling was adequate. However, over 60% of them also agreed that dispensers did not assess their understanding of information provided or invite them to ask questions. Despite this, their average overall satisfaction with counselling on a 10-point scale was 8.6 ± 1.6. Over 90% of them also correctly identified the routes and frequency of administration of the prescribed medication selected for the knowledge assessment. Although, more than 60% of respondents did not know the duration of therapy or names of these medications.
Respondents' satisfaction with medication counselling was fairly high even though they did not seem to know much about their medication.
Journal Article
Medication safety practices in healthcare facilities in Kaduna State, Nigeria: a study protocol
by
Lawal, Basira Kankia
,
Ibrahim, Umar Idris
,
Mohammed, Shafiu
in
Drug stores
,
Health care
,
Mixed methods research
2020
Background:
In recent years, there has been growing concern about patient safety and this is becoming a global problem. Medication safety can be used to describe systematic assessments of healthcare professionals’ practices as related to safe use of medicines. Identification and prevention of medication errors is the key component of medication safety. This includes multiple aspects of medication practice and other factors that affect it, such as organisational structure, communication, technologies such as those used for dispensing, and strategies pursued by leadership in cultivating and promoting a culture of safety.
Methods:
The study adopted a mixed method approach divided into three phases. Phase I is a quantitative phase and involves an assessment of core medication safety practices in the study sites together with an assessment of patient safety culture through the use of the Hospital Survey on Patient Safety Culture (HSOPSC) developed by US Agency for Health Care Research and Quality (AHRQ). Phase II will involve semi-structured interviews with health care providers and focus group discussions with patients to explore their perspectives on medication safety and to explore their experiences concerning medication safety respectively. Phase III will be an intervention study and will utilise the World Health Organisation (WHO) Patient Safety Curriculum Guide: Multi professional edition as the intervention tool.
Discussion:
The study findings will offer substantial opportunity for improvements. The study will also open up an area of patient safety culture, where not much research has been conducted in Nigeria.
Lay summary
Exploring medication safety practices in public healthcare facilities in Kaduna State, Nigeria: a study protocol
Patient safety is a global problem and there has been growing concern regarding it in recent years. Much less is known about medication safety in Nigeria. We are conducting this study in four public health facilities in Kaduna State, Nigeria in multiple phases that involve multiple stakeholders and data collection methods. In phase Ia, we assessed the presence of basic medication safety practices (such as use of information technology, transition in care practices, and others) by having structured questionnaire based interviews with the Head of Pharmacy department of each of the health facilities. In phase Ib, we are conducting a survey to assess patient safety culture amongst doctors, nurses and pharmacists of the selected health facilities.
In phase IIa, we will be conducting one-on-one interviews with healthcare providers to explore their perspectives on medication safety, while phase IIb will involve group discussions with patients to explore their experiences regarding their safety in healthcare.
Phase III will be the final phase, which will be an educational intervention phase that will be carried out as a pre- and post-intervention study. We will distribute a questionnaire to participants (pharmacists only), after which we will conduct seminars with the study participants using a patient safety curriculum developed by the World Health Organisation (WHO). Three (3) months later, we will distribute the same pre intervention questionnaire to participants who had responded to the earlier questionnaire and participated in the educational sessions.
This study is the first to be conducted in Kaduna State that explores medication safety and patient safety culture. On completion, it will open up an area of patient safety where not much research has been conducted in Nigeria. We expect that the study findings will offer substantial opportunity for making improvements in healthcare safety and quality.
Journal Article
User experience with a health insurance coverage and benefit-package access: implications for policy implementation towards expansion in Nigeria
by
Bermejo, Justo Lorenzo
,
Sauerborn, Rainer
,
Mohammed, Shafiu
in
Academic achievement
,
Access
,
Adult
2016
Abstract
Background:
Developing countries are devising strategies and mechanisms to expand coverage and benefit-package access for their citizens through national health insurance schemes (NHIS). In Nigeria, the scheme aims to provide affordable healthcare services to insured-persons and their dependants. However, inclusion of dependants is restricted to four biological children and a spouse per user. This study assesses the progress of implementation of the NHIS in Nigeria, relating to coverage and benefit-package access, and examines individual factors associated with the implementation, according to users’ perspectives.
Methods:
A retrospective, cross-sectional survey was done between October 2010 and March 2011 in Kaduna state and 796 users were randomly interviewed. Questions regarding coverage of immediate-family members and access to benefit-package for treatment were analysed. Indicators of coverage and benefit-package access were each further aggregated and assessed by unit-weighted composite. The additive-ordinary least square regression model was used to identify user factors that may influence coverage and benefit-package access.
Results:
With respect to coverage, immediate-dependants were included for 62.3% of the users, and 49.6 rated this inclusion ‘good’ (49.6%). In contrast, 60.2% supported the abolishment of the policy restriction for non-inclusion of enrolees’ additional children and spouses. With respect to benefit-package access, 82.7% of users had received full treatments, and 77.6% of them rated this as ‘good’. Also, 14.4% of users had been refused treatments because they could not afford them. The coverage of immediate-dependants was associated with age, sex, educational status, children and enrolment duration. The benefit-package access was associated with types of providers, marital status and duration of enrolment.
Conclusion:
This study revealed that coverage of family members was relatively poor, while benefit-package access was more adequate. Non-inclusion of family members could hinder effective coverage by the scheme. Potential policy implications towards effective coverage and benefit-package access are discussed.
Journal Article
Understanding client satisfaction with a health insurance scheme in Nigeria: factors and enrollees experiences
by
Sambo, Mohammad N
,
Dong, Hengjin
,
Mohammed, Shafiu
in
Customer satisfaction
,
Decision-making
,
Health Administration
2011
Background
Health insurance schemes have been widely introduced during this last decade in many African countries, which have strived for improvements in health service provision and the promotion of health care utilization. Client satisfaction with health service provision during the implementation of health insurance schemes has often been neglected since numerous activities take place concurrently. The satisfaction of enrollees and its influencing factors have been providing evidence which have assisted in policy and decision making. Our objective is to determine the enrollee's satisfaction with health service provision under a health insurance scheme and the factors which influence the satisfaction.
Methods
This retrospective, cross-sectional survey took place between May and September 2008. Two hundred and eighty (280) enrollees insured for more than one year in Zaria-Nigeria were recruited using two stage sampling. Enrollee's satisfaction was categorized into more satisfied and less satisfied based on positive responses obtained. Satisfaction, general knowledge and awareness of contribution were each aggregated and assessed as composite measure. Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze factors that influenced the satisfaction of enrollees.
Results
A high satisfaction rate with the health insurance scheme was observed (42.1%). Marital status (p < .05), general knowledge (p < .001) and awareness of contributions (p < .05) positively influenced clients' satisfaction. Length of employment, salary income, hospital visits and duration of enrolment slightly influenced satisfaction.
Conclusions
This study highlighted the potential effects of general health insurance knowledge and awareness of contributions by end-users (beneficiaries) of such new program on client satisfaction which have significant importance. The findings provided evidence which have assisted the amendment and re-prioritization of the medium term strategic plan of operations for the scheme. Future planning efforts could consider the client satisfaction and the factors which influenced it regularly.
Journal Article
Global burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance 1990–2021: a systematic analysis with forecasts to 2050
2024
Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses an important global health challenge in the 21st century. A previous study has quantified the global and regional burden of AMR for 2019, followed with additional publications that provided more detailed estimates for several WHO regions by country. To date, there have been no studies that produce comprehensive estimates of AMR burden across locations that encompass historical trends and future forecasts.
We estimated all-age and age-specific deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with bacterial AMR for 22 pathogens, 84 pathogen–drug combinations, and 11 infectious syndromes in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. We collected and used multiple cause of death data, hospital discharge data, microbiology data, literature studies, single drug resistance profiles, pharmaceutical sales, antibiotic use surveys, mortality surveillance, linkage data, outpatient and inpatient insurance claims data, and previously published data, covering 520 million individual records or isolates and 19 513 study-location-years. We used statistical modelling to produce estimates of AMR burden for all locations, including those with no data. Our approach leverages the estimation of five broad component quantities: the number of deaths involving sepsis; the proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome; the proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen; the percentage of a given pathogen resistant to an antibiotic of interest; and the excess risk of death or duration of an infection associated with this resistance. Using these components, we estimated disease burden attributable to and associated with AMR, which we define based on two counterfactuals; respectively, an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections are replaced by drug-susceptible infections, and an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections were replaced by no infection. Additionally, we produced global and regional forecasts of AMR burden until 2050 for three scenarios: a reference scenario that is a probabilistic forecast of the most likely future; a Gram-negative drug scenario that assumes future drug development that targets Gram-negative pathogens; and a better care scenario that assumes future improvements in health-care quality and access to appropriate antimicrobials. We present final estimates aggregated to the global, super-regional, and regional level.
In 2021, we estimated 4·71 million (95% UI 4·23–5·19) deaths were associated with bacterial AMR, including 1·14 million (1·00–1·28) deaths attributable to bacterial AMR. Trends in AMR mortality over the past 31 years varied substantially by age and location. From 1990 to 2021, deaths from AMR decreased by more than 50% among children younger than 5 years yet increased by over 80% for adults 70 years and older. AMR mortality decreased for children younger than 5 years in all super-regions, whereas AMR mortality in people 5 years and older increased in all super-regions. For both deaths associated with and deaths attributable to AMR, meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus increased the most globally (from 261 000 associated deaths [95% UI 150 000–372 000] and 57 200 attributable deaths [34 100–80 300] in 1990, to 550 000 associated deaths [500 000–600 000] and 130 000 attributable deaths [113 000–146 000] in 2021). Among Gram-negative bacteria, resistance to carbapenems increased more than any other antibiotic class, rising from 619 000 associated deaths (405 000–834 000) in 1990, to 1·03 million associated deaths (909 000–1·16 million) in 2021, and from 127 000 attributable deaths (82 100–171 000) in 1990, to 216 000 (168 000–264 000) attributable deaths in 2021. There was a notable decrease in non-COVID-related infectious disease in 2020 and 2021. Our forecasts show that an estimated 1·91 million (1·56–2·26) deaths attributable to AMR and 8·22 million (6·85–9·65) deaths associated with AMR could occur globally in 2050. Super-regions with the highest all-age AMR mortality rate in 2050 are forecasted to be south Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. Increases in deaths attributable to AMR will be largest among those 70 years and older (65·9% [61·2–69·8] of all-age deaths attributable to AMR in 2050). In stark contrast to the strong increase in number of deaths due to AMR of 69·6% (51·5–89·2) from 2022 to 2050, the number of DALYs showed a much smaller increase of 9·4% (–6·9 to 29·0) to 46·5 million (37·7 to 57·3) in 2050. Under the better care scenario, across all age groups, 92·0 million deaths (82·8–102·0) could be cumulatively averted between 2025 and 2050, through better care of severe infections and improved access to antibiotics, and under the Gram-negative drug scenario, 11·1 million AMR deaths (9·08–13·2) could be averted through the development of a Gram-negative drug pipeline to prevent AMR deaths.
This study presents the first comprehensive assessment of the global burden of AMR from 1990 to 2021, with results forecasted until 2050. Evaluating changing trends in AMR mortality across time and location is necessary to understand how this important global health threat is developing and prepares us to make informed decisions regarding interventions. Our findings show the importance of infection prevention, as shown by the reduction of AMR deaths in those younger than 5 years. Simultaneously, our results underscore the concerning trend of AMR burden among those older than 70 years, alongside a rapidly ageing global community. The opposing trends in the burden of AMR deaths between younger and older individuals explains the moderate future increase in global number of DALYs versus number of deaths. Given the high variability of AMR burden by location and age, it is important that interventions combine infection prevention, vaccination, minimisation of inappropriate antibiotic use in farming and humans, and research into new antibiotics to mitigate the number of AMR deaths that are forecasted for 2050.
UK Department of Health and Social Care's Fleming Fund using UK aid, and the Wellcome Trust.
Journal Article
Global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity, 1990–2021, with forecasts to 2050: a forecasting study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
2025
Overweight and obesity is a global epidemic. Forecasting future trajectories of the epidemic is crucial for providing an evidence base for policy change. In this study, we examine the historical trends of the global, regional, and national prevalence of adult overweight and obesity from 1990 to 2021 and forecast the future trajectories to 2050.
Leveraging established methodology from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, we estimated the prevalence of overweight and obesity among individuals aged 25 years and older by age and sex for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2050. Retrospective and current prevalence trends were derived based on both self-reported and measured anthropometric data extracted from 1350 unique sources, which include survey microdata and reports, as well as published literature. Specific adjustment was applied to correct for self-report bias. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models were used to synthesise data, leveraging both spatial and temporal correlation in epidemiological trends, to optimise the comparability of results across time and geographies. To generate forecast estimates, we used forecasts of the Socio-demographic Index and temporal correlation patterns presented as annualised rate of change to inform future trajectories. We considered a reference scenario assuming the continuation of historical trends.
Rates of overweight and obesity increased at the global and regional levels, and in all nations, between 1990 and 2021. In 2021, an estimated 1·00 billion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 0·989–1·01) adult males and 1·11 billion (1·10–1·12) adult females had overweight and obesity. China had the largest population of adults with overweight and obesity (402 million [397–407] individuals), followed by India (180 million [167–194]) and the USA (172 million [169–174]). The highest age-standardised prevalence of overweight and obesity was observed in countries in Oceania and north Africa and the Middle East, with many of these countries reporting prevalence of more than 80% in adults. Compared with 1990, the global prevalence of obesity had increased by 155·1% (149·8–160·3) in males and 104·9% (95% UI 100·9–108·8) in females. The most rapid rise in obesity prevalence was observed in the north Africa and the Middle East super-region, where age-standardised prevalence rates in males more than tripled and in females more than doubled. Assuming the continuation of historical trends, by 2050, we forecast that the total number of adults living with overweight and obesity will reach 3·80 billion (95% UI 3·39–4·04), over half of the likely global adult population at that time. While China, India, and the USA will continue to constitute a large proportion of the global population with overweight and obesity, the number in the sub-Saharan Africa super-region is forecasted to increase by 254·8% (234·4–269·5). In Nigeria specifically, the number of adults with overweight and obesity is forecasted to rise to 141 million (121–162) by 2050, making it the country with the fourth-largest population with overweight and obesity.
No country to date has successfully curbed the rising rates of adult overweight and obesity. Without immediate and effective intervention, overweight and obesity will continue to increase globally. Particularly in Asia and Africa, driven by growing populations, the number of individuals with overweight and obesity is forecast to rise substantially. These regions will face a considerable increase in obesity-related disease burden. Merely acknowledging obesity as a global health issue would be negligent on the part of global health and public health practitioners; more aggressive and targeted measures are required to address this crisis, as obesity is one of the foremost avertible risks to health now and in the future and poses an unparalleled threat of premature disease and death at local, national, and global levels.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Journal Article
Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
2021
Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels.
We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level.
In 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0–13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2–111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133–153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00–7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8–12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1–6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0–73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0–88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0–55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0–42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0–18·0), mortality decreased by 36·0% (31·0–42·0), prevalence decreased by 6·0% (5·0–7·0), and DALYs decreased by 36·0% (31·0–42·0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22·0% (21·0–24·0) and incidence rates increased by 15·0% (12·0–18·0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3·6 (3·5–3·8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3·7 (3·5–3·9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62·4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7·63 million [6·57–8·96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27·9% (3·41 million [2·97–3·91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9·7% (1·18 million [1·01–1·39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79·6 million [67·7–90·8] DALYs or 55·5% [48·2–62·0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34·9 million [22·3–48·6] DALYs or 24·3% [15·7–33·2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28·9 million [19·8–41·5] DALYs or 20·2% [13·8–29·1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28·7 million [23·4–33·4] DALYs or 20·1% [16·6–23·0]), and smoking (25·3 million [22·6–28·2] DALYs or 17·6% [16·4–19·0]).
The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Journal Article
Global mortality associated with 33 bacterial pathogens in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
by
Pardhan, Shahina
,
Dunachie, Susanna J
,
Herteliu, Claudiu
in
Africa South of the Sahara
,
Antibiotics
,
Antimicrobial agents
2022
Reducing the burden of death due to infection is an urgent global public health priority. Previous studies have estimated the number of deaths associated with drug-resistant infections and sepsis and found that infections remain a leading cause of death globally. Understanding the global burden of common bacterial pathogens (both susceptible and resistant to antimicrobials) is essential to identify the greatest threats to public health. To our knowledge, this is the first study to present global comprehensive estimates of deaths associated with 33 bacterial pathogens across 11 major infectious syndromes.
We estimated deaths associated with 33 bacterial genera or species across 11 infectious syndromes in 2019 using methods from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, in addition to a subset of the input data described in the Global Burden of Antimicrobial Resistance 2019 study. This study included 343 million individual records or isolates covering 11 361 study-location-years. We used three modelling steps to estimate the number of deaths associated with each pathogen: deaths in which infection had a role, the fraction of deaths due to infection that are attributable to a given infectious syndrome, and the fraction of deaths due to an infectious syndrome that are attributable to a given pathogen. Estimates were produced for all ages and for males and females across 204 countries and territories in 2019. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for final estimates of deaths and infections associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens following standard GBD methods by taking the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles across 1000 posterior draws for each quantity of interest.
From an estimated 13·7 million (95% UI 10·9–17·1) infection-related deaths in 2019, there were 7·7 million deaths (5·7–10·2) associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens (both resistant and susceptible to antimicrobials) across the 11 infectious syndromes estimated in this study. We estimated deaths associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens to comprise 13·6% (10·2–18·1) of all global deaths and 56·2% (52·1–60·1) of all sepsis-related deaths in 2019. Five leading pathogens—Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa—were responsible for 54·9% (52·9–56·9) of deaths among the investigated bacteria. The deadliest infectious syndromes and pathogens varied by location and age. The age-standardised mortality rate associated with these bacterial pathogens was highest in the sub-Saharan Africa super-region, with 230 deaths (185–285) per 100 000 population, and lowest in the high-income super-region, with 52·2 deaths (37·4–71·5) per 100 000 population. S aureus was the leading bacterial cause of death in 135 countries and was also associated with the most deaths in individuals older than 15 years, globally. Among children younger than 5 years, S pneumoniae was the pathogen associated with the most deaths. In 2019, more than 6 million deaths occurred as a result of three bacterial infectious syndromes, with lower respiratory infections and bloodstream infections each causing more than 2 million deaths and peritoneal and intra-abdominal infections causing more than 1 million deaths.
The 33 bacterial pathogens that we investigated in this study are a substantial source of health loss globally, with considerable variation in their distribution across infectious syndromes and locations. Compared with GBD Level 3 underlying causes of death, deaths associated with these bacteria would rank as the second leading cause of death globally in 2019; hence, they should be considered an urgent priority for intervention within the global health community. Strategies to address the burden of bacterial infections include infection prevention, optimised use of antibiotics, improved capacity for microbiological analysis, vaccine development, and improved and more pervasive use of available vaccines. These estimates can be used to help set priorities for vaccine need, demand, and development.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care, using UK aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund.
Journal Article