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BackgroundThe caesarean section (CS) rate continues to increase across high-income, middle-income and low-income countries. We present current global and regional CS rates, trends since 1990 and projections for 2030.MethodsWe obtained nationally representative data on the CS rate from countries worldwide from 1990 to 2018. We used routine health information systems reports and population-based household surveys. Using the latest available data, we calculated current regional and subregional weighted averages. We estimated trends by a piecewise analysis of CS rates at the national, regional and global levels from 1990 to 2018. We projected the CS rate and the number of CS expected in 2030 using autoregressive integrated moving-average models.ResultsLatest available data (2010–2018) from 154 countries covering 94.5% of world live births shows that 21.1% of women gave birth by caesarean worldwide, averages ranging from 5% in sub-Saharan Africa to 42.8% in Latin America and the Caribbean. CS has risen in all regions since 1990. Subregions with the greatest increases were Eastern Asia, Western Asia and Northern Africa (44.9, 34.7 and 31.5 percentage point increase, respectively) while sub-Saharan Africa and Northern America (3.6 and 9.5 percentage point increase, respectively) had the lowest rise. Projections showed that by 2030, 28.5% of women worldwide will give birth by CS (38 million caesareans of which 33.5 million in LMIC annually) ranging from 7.1% in sub-Saharan Africa to 63.4% in Eastern Asia .ConclusionThe use of CS has steadily increased worldwide and will continue increasing over the current decade where both unmet need and overuse are expected to coexist. In the absence of global effective interventions to revert the trend, Southern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa will face a complex scenario with morbidity and mortality associated with the unmet need, the unsafe provision of CS and with the concomitant overuse of the surgical procedure which drains resources and adds avoidable morbidity and mortality. If the Sustainable Development Goals are to be achieved, comprehensively addressing the CS issue is a global priority.

Preterm birth is the leading cause of neonatal mortality and is associated with long-term physical, neurodevelopmental, and socioeconomic effects. This study updated national preterm birth rates and trends, plus novel estimates by gestational age subgroups, to inform progress towards global health goals and targets, and aimed to update country, regional, and global estimates of preterm birth for 2020 in addition to trends between 2010 and 2020. We systematically searched population-based, nationally representative data on preterm birth from Jan 1, 2010, to Dec 31, 2020 and study data (26 March–14 April, 2021) for countries and areas with no national-level data. The analysis included 679 data points (86% nationally representative administrative data [582 of 679 data points]) from 103 countries and areas (62% of countries and areas having nationally representative administrative data [64 of 103 data points]). A Bayesian hierarchical regression was used for estimating country-level preterm rates, which incoporated country-specific intercepts, low birthweight as a covariate, non-linear time trends, and bias adjustments based on a data quality categorisation, and other indicators such as method of gestational age estimation. An estimated 13·4 million (95% credible interval [CrI] 12·3–15·2 million) newborn babies were born preterm (<37 weeks) in 2020 (9·9% of all births [95% CrI 9·1–11·2]) compared with 13·8 million (12·7–15·5 million) in 2010 (9·8% of all births [9·0–11·0]) worldwide. The global annual rate of reduction was estimated at –0·14% from 2010 to 2020. In total, 55·6% of total livebirths are in southern Asia (26·8% [36 099 000 of 134 767 000]) and sub-Saharan Africa (28·7% [38 819 300 of 134 767 000]), yet these two regions accounted for approximately 65% (8 692 000 of 13 376 200) of all preterm births globally in 2020. Of the 33 countries and areas in the highest data quality category, none were in southern Asia or sub-Saharan Africa compared with 94% (30 of 32 countries) in high-income countries and areas. Worldwide from 2010 to 2020, approximately 15% of all preterm births occurred at less than 32 weeks of gestation, requiring more neonatal care (<28 weeks: 4·2%, 95% CI 3·1–5·0, 567 800 [410 200–663 200 newborn babies]); 28–32 weeks: 10·4% [9·5–10·6], 1 392 500 [1 274 800–1 422 600 newborn babies]). There has been no measurable change in preterm birth rates over the last decade at global level. Despite increasing facility birth rates and substantial focus on routine health data systems, there remain many missed opportunities to improve preterm birth data. Gaps in national routine data for preterm birth are most marked in regions of southern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, which also have the highest estimated burden of preterm births. Countries need to prioritise programmatic investments to prevent preterm birth and to ensure evidence-based quality care when preterm birth occurs. Investments in improving data quality are crucial so that preterm birth data can be improved and used for action and accountability processes. The Children's Investment Fund Foundation and the UNDP, United Nations Population Fund-UNICEF-WHO-World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction.

Millennium Development Goal 5 calls for a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) between 1990 and 2015. We estimated levels and trends in maternal mortality for 183 countries to assess progress made. Based on MMR estimates for 2015, we constructed projections to show the requirements for the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of less than 70 maternal deaths per 100 000 livebirths globally by 2030. We updated the UN Maternal Mortality Estimation Inter-Agency Group (MMEIG) database with more than 200 additional records (vital statistics from civil registration systems, surveys, studies, or reports). We generated estimates of maternal mortality and related indicators with 80% uncertainty intervals (UIs) using a Bayesian model. The model combines the rate of change implied by a multilevel regression model with a time-series model to capture data-driven changes in country-specific MMRs, and includes a data model to adjust for systematic and random errors associated with different data sources. We had data for 171 of 183 countries. The global MMR fell from 385 deaths per 100 000 livebirths (80% UI 359–427) in 1990, to 216 (207–249) in 2015, corresponding to a relative decline of 43·9% (34·0–48·7), with 303 000 (291 000–349 000) maternal deaths worldwide in 2015. Regional progress in reducing the MMR since 1990 ranged from an annual rate of reduction of 1·8% (0·0–3·1) in the Caribbean to 5·0% (4·0–6·0) in eastern Asia. Regional MMRs for 2015 ranged from 12 deaths per 100 000 livebirths (11–14) for high-income regions to 546 (511–652) for sub-Saharan Africa. Accelerated progress will be needed to achieve the SDG goal; countries will need to reduce their MMRs at an annual rate of reduction of at least 7·5%. Despite global progress in reducing maternal mortality, immediate action is needed to meet the ambitious SDG 2030 target, and ultimately eliminate preventable maternal mortality. Although the rates of reduction that are needed to achieve country-specific SDG targets are ambitious for most high mortality countries, countries that made a concerted effort to reduce maternal mortality between 2000 and 2010 provide inspiration and guidance on how to accomplish the acceleration necessary to substantially reduce preventable maternal deaths. National University of Singapore, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, USAID, and the UNDP/UNFPA/UNICEF/WHO/World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction.

This second paper in the Born Too Soon supplement presents a review of the epidemiology of preterm birth, and its burden globally, including priorities for action to improve the data. Worldwide an estimated 11.1% of all livebirths in 2010 were born preterm (14.9 million babies born before 37 weeks of gestation), with preterm birth rates increasing in most countries with reliable trend data. Direct complications of preterm birth account for one million deaths each year, and preterm birth is a risk factor in over 50% of all neonatal deaths. In addition, preterm birth can result in a range of long-term complications in survivors, with the frequency and severity of adverse outcomes rising with decreasing gestational age and decreasing quality of care. The economic costs of preterm birth are large in terms of immediate neonatal intensive care, ongoing long-term complex health needs, as well as lost economic productivity. Preterm birth is a syndrome with a variety of causes and underlying factors usually divided into spontaneous and provider-initiated preterm births. Consistent recording of all pregnancy outcomes, including stillbirths, and standard application of preterm definitions is important in all settings to advance both the understanding and the monitoring of trends. Context specific innovative solutions to prevent preterm birth and hence reduce preterm birth rates all around the world are urgently needed. Strengthened data systems are required to adequately track trends in preterm birth rates and program effectiveness. These efforts must be coupled with action now to implement improved antenatal, obstetric and newborn care to increase survival and reduce disability amongst those born too soon. Declaration This article is part of a supplement jointly funded by Save the Children's Saving Newborn Lives programme through a grant from The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and March of Dimes Foundation and published in collaboration with the Partnership for Maternal, Newborn and Child Health and the World Health Organization (WHO). The original article was published in PDF format in the WHO Report \"Born Too Soon: the global action report on preterm birth\" (ISBN 978 92 4 150343 30), which involved collaboration from more than 50 organizations. The article has been reformatted for journal publication and has undergone peer review according to Reproductive Health 's standard process for supplements and may feature some variations in content when compared to the original report. This co-publication makes the article available to the community in a full-text format.

IntroductionInternationally comparable estimates of unintended pregnancy and abortion incidence can illuminate disparities in sexual and reproductive health and autonomy. Country-specific estimates are essential to enable international comparison, and to inform country-level policy and programming.MethodsWe developed a Bayesian model which jointly estimated unintended pregnancy and abortion rates using information on contraceptive needs and use, contraceptive method mix, birth rates, the proportions of births from unintended pregnancies and abortion incidence data. Main outcomes were the estimated rates of unintended pregnancy and abortion for 150 countries and territories, reported for the 5-year period 2015–2019, as annual averages per 1000 women aged 15–49 years.ResultsEstimated unintended pregnancy rates ranged from 11 (80% uncertainty interval: 9 to 13) in Montenegro to 145 (131 to 159) in Uganda per 1000 women aged 15–49 years. Between-country heterogeneity was substantial in all Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) regions, but was greatest in sub-Saharan Africa. Estimated abortion rates ranged from 5 (5 to 6) in Singapore to 80 (55 to 113) in Georgia. Variation between country estimates was similar in all SDG regions except for Europe and Northern America, where estimated abortion rates were generally lower.ConclusionThe estimates reflect variation in the degree to unintended pregnancy and abortion that are experienced in countries throughout the world. This evidence highlights the importance of investing in access to contraception and comprehensive abortion care, including in regions which may have lower rates of unintended pregnancy or abortion, respectively, as countries may differ substantially from regional averages.

Preterm birth is the second largest direct cause of child deaths in children younger than 5 years. Yet, data regarding preterm birth (<37 completed weeks of gestation) are not routinely collected by UN agencies, and no systematic country estimates nor time trend analyses have been done. We report worldwide, regional, and national estimates of preterm birth rates for 184 countries in 2010 with time trends for selected countries, and provide a quantitative assessment of the uncertainty surrounding these estimates. We assessed various data sources according to prespecified inclusion criteria. National Registries (563 datapoints, 51 countries), Reproductive Health Surveys (13 datapoints, eight countries), and studies identified through systematic searches and unpublished data (162 datapoints, 40 countries) were included. 55 countries submitted additional data during WHO's country consultation process. For 13 countries with adequate quality and quantity of data, we estimated preterm birth rates using country-level loess regression for 2010. For 171 countries, two regional multilevel statistical models were developed to estimate preterm birth rates for 2010. We estimated time trends from 1990 to 2010 for 65 countries with reliable time trend data and more than 10 000 livebirths per year. We calculated uncertainty ranges for all countries. In 2010, an estimated 14·9 million babies (uncertainty range 12·3–18·1 million) were born preterm, 11·1% of all livebirths worldwide, ranging from about 5% in several European countries to 18% in some African countries. More than 60% of preterm babies were born in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, where 52% of the global livebirths occur. Preterm birth also affects rich countries, for example, USA has high rates and is one of the ten countries with the highest numbers of preterm births. Of the 65 countries with estimated time trends, only three (Croatia, Ecuador, and Estonia), had reduced preterm birth rates 1990–2010. The burden of preterm birth is substantial and is increasing in those regions with reliable data. Improved recording of all pregnancy outcomes and standard application of preterm definitions is important. We recommend the addition of a data-quality indicator of the per cent of all live preterm births that are under 28 weeks' gestation. Distinguishing preterm births that are spontaneous from those that are provider-initiated is important to monitor trends associated with increased caesarean sections. Rapid scale up of basic interventions could accelerate progress towards Millennium Development Goal 4 for child survival and beyond. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation through grants to Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group (CHERG) and Save the Children's Saving Newborn Lives programme; March of Dimes; the Partnership for Maternal Newborn and Childe Health; and WHO, Department of Reproductive Health and Research.

A large number of indicators are currently used to monitor the state of maternal and newborn health, including those capturing dimensions of health system and input, care access and availability, care quality and safety, coverage and outcomes, and impact. Validity of these indicators is a key issue in the process of assessing indicator performance and suitability. This paper aims to understand the meaning of indicator validity in the field of maternal and newborn health, and to identify key recommendations for future research. This qualitative study used purposive sampling to identify key informants until thematic saturation was achieved. We interviewed 32 respondents from a variety of backgrounds using semi-structured interviews covering five themes: the meaning of indicator validity, methodological approaches to assessing validity, acceptable levels of indicator validity, gaps in validation research, and recommendations for addressing these gaps. Interview transcripts were analysed data using thematic content approach. Three conceptually different definitions of indicator validity were described by respondents. They considered indicator validity to encompass meaning and potential to spur action, going beyond diagnostic validity. Indicator validation was seen as an ongoing process of building and synthesising a wide range of evidence rather than a one-size-fits-all cut-off in diagnostic validity tests. Gaps identified included assessing validity of indicators of quality of care and indicators based on facility-level data, as well as expanding studies to a broader range of global settings. The key recommendation was to develop a coordinated approach to summarising and evaluating research on indicator validity, including capacity building in appraising and communicating the available evidence for country-specific needs. The findings will inform future recommendations around indicator testing and validation.

Background The practice of female genital mutilation (FGM) is a health and social problem. Millions of girls and women have undergone FGM or will soon, and more information is needed to effectively reduce the practice. The aim of this research is to provide an overview of the FGM trendlines, the inequality of its prevalence, and the economic burden. The findings shed light on 30-year trends and the impact of the pandemic on planned efforts to reduce FGM which helps with public health interventions. Methods Temporal trend analysis, and graphical analysis were used to assess the change and inequality over the last 30 years. We included 27 countries in which FGM is prevalent. We calculated the extra economic burden of delayed interventions to reduce FGM like COVID-19. Results For the 27 countries analyzed for temporal trendlines, 13 countries showed no change over time while 14 had decreasing trends. Among the 14, nine countries, Uganda, Togo, Ghana, Benin, Kenya, Nigeria, Central African Republic, Chad, and Ethiopia had high year-decrease (CAGR − 1.01 and − 10.26) while five, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, Gambia, Djibouti, and Mali had low year-decrease (CAGR>-1 and < 0). Among these five are the highest FGM prevalence similar distribution regardless the wealth quintiles or residence. There is an economic burden of delay or non-decline of FGM that could be averted. Conclusion Findings indicate that some countries show a declining trend over time while others not. It can be observed that there is heterogeneity and homogeneity in the FGM prevalence within and between countries which may indicate inequality that deserves further investigation. There is considerable economic burden due to delays in the implementation of interventions to reduce or eliminate FGM. These insights can help in the preparation of public health interventions.

A variety of global-level monitoring initiatives have recommended indicators for tracking progress in maternal and newborn health. As a first step supporting the work of WHO's Mother and Newborn Information for Tracking Outcomes and Results (MoNITOR) Technical Advisory Group, we aimed to compile and synthesize recommended indicators in order to document the landscape of maternal and newborn measurement and monitoring. We conducted a scoping review of indicators proposed by global multi-stakeholder groups to suggest next steps to further support maternal and newborn measurement and monitoring. Indicators pertaining to pregnancy, childbirth, and postpartum/postnatal and newborn care were extracted and included in the indicator compilation, together with key indicator metadata. We examined patterns and relationships across the compiled indicators. We identified 140 indicators linked to maternal and newborn health topics across the continuum of service provision. Fifty-five indicators relate to inputs and processes, 30 indicators relate to outputs, outcomes comprise 37 indicators in the database, and 18 impact indicators. A quarter of indicators proposed by global groups is either under development/discussion or is considered \"aspirational\", highlighting the currently evolving monitoring landscape. Although considerable efforts have been made to harmonize indicator recommendations, there are still relatively few indicators shared across key monitoring initiatives and some of those that are shared may have definitional variation. Rapid, wide-ranging work by a number of multi-stakeholder groups has resulted in a substantial number of indicators, many of which partially overlap and many are not supported with adequate documentation or guidance. The volume of indicators, coupled with the number of initiatives promoting different indicator lists, highlight the need for strengthened coordination and technical leadership to harmonize recommendations for improved measurement and monitoring of data related to maternal and newborn heath.

Preterm birth is a leading cause of death among children under five years. Previous estimates indicated global preterm birth rate of 10.6% (14.8 million neonates) in 2014. We aim to update preterm birth estimates at global, regional, and national levels for the period 2010 to 2019. Preterm birth is defined as a live birth occurring before 37 completed gestational weeks, or <259 days since a woman's last menstrual period. National administrative data sources for WHO Member States with facility birth rates of ≥80% in the most recent year for which data is available will be searched. Administrative data identified for these countries will be considered if ≥80% of UN estimated live births include gestational age information to define preterm birth. For countries without eligible administrative data, a systematic review of studies will be conducted. Research studies will be eligible if the reported outcome is derived from an observational or intervention study conducted at national or sub-national level in population- or facility-based settings. Risk of bias assessments will focus on gestational age measurement method and coverage, and inclusion of special subgroups in published estimates. Covariates for inclusion will be selected a priori based on a conceptual framework of plausible associations with preterm birth, data availability, and quality of covariate data across many countries and years. Global, regional and national preterm birth rates will be estimated using a Bayesian multilevel-mixed regression model. Accurate measurement of preterm birth is challenging in many countries given incomplete or unavailable data from national administrative sources, compounded by limited gestational age assessment during pregnancy to define preterm birth. Up-to-date modelled estimates will be an important resource to measure the global burden of preterm birth and to inform policies and programs especially in settings with a high burden of neonatal mortality. PROSPERO registration: CRD42021237861.