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Background Cancers are leading causes of mortality and morbidity, with smoking being recognized as a significant risk factor for many types of cancer. We aimed to report the cancer burden attributable to tobacco smoking by sex, age, socio‐demographic index (SDI), and cancer type in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Methods The burden of cancers attributable to smoking was reported between 1990 and 2019, based upon the Comparative Risk Assessment approach used in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. Results Globally, in 2019 there were an estimated 2.5 million cancer‐related deaths (95% UI: 2.3 to 2.7) and 56.4 million DALYs (51.3 to 61.7) attributable to smoking. The global age‐standardized death and DALY rates of cancers attributable to smoking per 100,000 decreased by 23.0% (−29.5 to −15.8) and 28.6% (−35.1 to −21.5), respectively, over the period 1990–2019. Central Europe (50.4 [44.4 to 57.6]) and Western Sub‐Saharan Africa (6.7 [5.7 to 8.0]) had the highest and lowest age‐standardized death rates, respectively, for cancers attributable to smoking. In 2019, the age‐standardized DALY rate of cancers attributable to smoking was highest in Greenland (2224.0 [1804.5 to 2678.8]) and lowest in Ethiopia (72.2 [51.2 to 98.0]). Also in 2019, the global number of DALYs was highest in the 65–69 age group and there was a positive association between SDI and the age‐standardized DALY rate. Conclusions The results of this study clearly illustrate that renewed efforts are required to increase utilization of evidence‐based smoking cessation support in order to reduce the burden of smoking‐related diseases. We show that almost one in every four deaths, and one in every five DALYs, due to cancer was as a result of exposure to smoking. In 2019, the global number of DALYs was highest in the 65‐69 age group and there was a positive association between SDI and the age‐standardized DALY rate.

ObjectivesTo provide the level and trends of prevalence, incidence and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2017 by age, sex, Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite of sociodemographic factors) and Healthcare Access and Quality (an indicator of health system performance) Index.MethodsData from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors study (GBD) 2017 were used. GBD 2017 modelled the burden of RA for 195 countries from 1990 to 2017, through a systematic analysis of mortality and morbidity data to estimate prevalence, incidence and DALYs. All estimates were presented as counts and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population, with uncertainty intervals (UIs).ResultsGlobally, the age-standardised point prevalence and annual incidence rates of RA were 246.6 (95% UI 222.4 to 270.8) and 14.9 (95% UI 13.3 to 16.4) in 2017, which increased by 7.4% (95% UI 5.3 to 9.4) and 8.2% (95% UI 5.9 to 10.5) from 1990, respectively. However, the age-standardised rate of RA DALYs per 100 000 population was 43.3 (95% UI 33.0 to 54.5) in 2017, which was a 3.6% (95% UI −9.7 to 0.3) decrease from the 1990 rate. The age-standardised prevalence and DALY rates increased with age and were higher in females; the rates peaked at 70–74 and 75–79 age groups for females and males, respectively. A non-linear association was found between age-standardised DALY rate and SDI. The global age-standardised DALY rate decreased from 1990 to 2012 but then increased and reached higher than expected levels in the following 5 years to 2017. The UK had the highest age-standardised prevalence rate (471.8 (95% UI 428.9 to 514.9)) and age-standardised incidence rate (27.5 (95% UI 24.7 to 30.0)) in 2017. Canada, Paraguay and Guatemala showed the largest increases in age-standardised prevalence rates (54.7% (95% UI 49.2 to 59.7), 41.8% (95% UI 35.0 to 48.6) and 37.0% (95% UI 30.9 to 43.9), respectively) and age-standardised incidence rates (48.2% (95% UI 41.5 to 55.1), 43.6% (95% UI 36.6 to 50.7) and 36.8% (95% UI 30.4 to 44.3), respectively) between 1990 and 2017.ConclusionsRA is a major global public health challenge. The age-standardised prevalence and incidence rates are increasing, especially in countries such as Canada, Paraguay and Guatemala. Early identification and treatment of RA is vital especially among females, in order to reduce the ongoing burden of this condition. The quality of health data needs to be improved for better monitoring of disease burden.

ObjectivesTo report the level and trends of prevalence, incidence and years lived with disability (YLDs) for osteoarthritis (OA) in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017 by age, sex and Socio-demographic index (SDI; a composite of sociodemographic factors).MethodsPublicly available modelled data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 were used. The burden of OA was estimated for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017, through a systematic analysis of prevalence and incidence modelled data using the methods reported in the GBD 2017 Study. All estimates were presented as counts and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population, with uncertainty intervals (UIs).ResultsGlobally, the age-standardised point prevalence and annual incidence rate of OA in 2017 were 3754.2 (95% UI 3389.4 to 4187.6) and 181.2 (95% UI 162.6 to 202.4) per 100 000, an increase of 9.3% (95% UI 8% to 10.7%) and 8.2% (95% UI 7.1% to 9.4%) from 1990, respectively. In addition, global age-standardised YLD rate in 2017 was 118.8 (95% UI 59.5 to 236.2), an increase of 9.6% (95% UI 8.3% to 11.1%) from 1990. The global prevalence was higher in women and increased with age, peaking at the >95 age group among women and men in 2017. Generally, a positive association was found between the age-standardised YLD rate and SDI at the regional and national levels. Age-standardised prevalence of OA in 2017 ranged from 2090.3 to 6128.1 cases per 100 000 population. United States (6128.1 (95% UI 5729.3 to 6582.9)), American Samoa (5281 (95% UI 4688 to 5965.9)) and Kuwait (5234.6 (95% UI 4643.2 to 5953.6)) had the three highest levels of age-standardised prevalence. Oman (29.6% (95% UI 24.8% to 34.9%)), Equatorial Guinea (28.6% (95% UI 24.4% to 33.7%)) and the United States 23.2% (95% UI 16.4% to 30.5%)) showed the highest increase in the age-standardised prevalence during 1990–2017.ConclusionsOA is a major public health challenge. While there is remarkable international variation in the prevalence, incidence and YLDs due to OA, the burden is increasing in most countries. It is expected to continue with increased life expectancy and ageing of the global population. Improving population and policy maker awareness of risk factors, including overweight and injury, and the importance and benefits of management of OA, together with providing health services for an increasing number of people living with OA, are recommended for management of the future burden of this condition.

Introduction Autism spectrum disorders (ASD) encompass a range of neurodevelopmental disorders that affect the patient's communication and behavior. There are some reports about the increasing prevalence of ASD in recent decades, mostly due to the improvement in diagnosis and screening status. Few studies suggested a lower prevalence of ASD in North Africa and Middle East compared to more developed regions. The aim of this study is to provide a comprehensive outlook of ASD in the region. Methods We used Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data from 1990 to 2019 in North Africa and Middle East, which is one of the seven super regions of the GBD categorization. In this study, we reported the epidemiologic indices, including prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for ASD in the 21 countries of the super region. We also compared these indices between the countries based on their sociodemographic index (SDI) which was calculated according to income per capita, mean education, and fertility rate. Results Age‐standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of ASD in the region is 304.4 (95% uncertainty interval 251.2–366.1) per 100,000 in 2019 with less than one percentage change since 1990. Age‐standardized YLDs and incidence rates were 46.4 (30.4–67.5) and 7.7 (6.3–9.3) per 100,000 in 2019. The ASPR was 2.9 times greater in males compared to females in 2019. The highest age‐standardized prevalence, incidence, and YLD rates among the countries were seen in Iran in 2019 (370.3, 9.3, and 56.4 per 100,000, respectively). High SDI countries had higher age‐standardized YLDs rates compared to the other countries of the region. Conclusion In conclusion, the trends of age‐standardized epidemiologic indices remained approximately steady through the years 1990–2019 in the region. Though, there was a wide discrepancy between the countries of the region. The difference of YLDs among the countries of this region is related to the SDI of the countries. Monetary and public awareness status are the SDI factors that may affect the quality of life of ASD patients in the region. This study provides valuable information for governments and health systems to implement policies for maintaining the improving trend, achieving more timely diagnosis, and bettering the supportive actions in this region. In this paper, we provided a prospect for health officials of the countries to implement their health care policies and programs and we also mentioned the possible ways to enhance the quality of life for these patients.

For the Chinese, French, German, and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.TRANSLATIONSFor the Chinese, French, German, and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

AbstractObjectiveTo use data from the Global Burden of Disease Study between 1990 and 2017 to report the rates and trends of point prevalence, annual incidence, and years lived with disability for neck pain in the general population of 195 countries.DesignSystematic analysis.Data sourceGlobal Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017.Main outcome measuresNumbers and age standardised rates per 100 000 population of neck pain point prevalence, annual incidence, and years lived with disability were compared across regions and countries by age, sex, and sociodemographic index. Estimates were reported with uncertainty intervals.ResultsGlobally in 2017 the age standardised rates for point prevalence of neck pain per 100 000 population was 3551.1 (95% uncertainty interval 3139.5 to 3977.9), for incidence of neck pain per 100 000 population was 806.6 (713.7 to 912.5), and for years lived with disability from neck pain per 100 000 population was 352.0 (245.6 to 493.3). These estimates did not change significantly between 1990 and 2017. The global point prevalence of neck pain in 2017 was higher in females compared with males, although this was not significant at the 0.05 level. Prevalence increased with age up to 70-74 years and then decreased. Norway (6151.2 (95% uncertainty interval 5382.3 to 6959.8)), Finland (5750.3 (5058.4 to 6518.3)), and Denmark (5316 (4674 to 6030.1)) had the three highest age standardised point prevalence estimates in 2017. The largest increases in age standardised point prevalence estimates from 1990 to 2017 were in the United Kingdom (14.6% (10.6% to 18.8%)), Sweden (10.4% (6.0% to 15.4%)), and Kuwait (2.6% (2.0% to 3.2%)). In general, positive associations, but with fluctuations, were found between age standardised years lived with disability for neck pain and sociodemographic index at the global level and for all Global Burden of Disease regions, suggesting the burden is higher at higher sociodemographic indices.ConclusionsNeck pain is a serious public health problem in the general population, with the highest burden in Norway, Finland, and Denmark. Increasing population awareness about risk factors and preventive strategies for neck pain is warranted to reduce the future burden of this condition.

Through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) studies, headache has emerged as a major global public health concern. We aimed to use data from the GBD 2016 study to provide new estimates for prevalence and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for migraine and tension-type headache and to present the methods and results in an accessible way for clinicians and researchers of headache disorders. Data were derived from population-based cross-sectional surveys on migraine and tension-type headache. Prevalence for each sex and 5-year age group interval (ie, age 5 years to ≥95 years) at different time points from 1990 and 2016 in all countries and GBD regions were estimated using a Bayesian meta-regression model. Disease burden measured in YLDs was calculated from prevalence and average time spent with headache multiplied by disability weights (a measure of the relative severity of the disabling consequence of a disease). The burden stemming from medication overuse headache, which was included in earlier iterations of GBD as a separate cause, was subsumed as a sequela of either migraine or tension-type headache. Because no deaths were assigned to headaches as the underlying cause, YLDs equate to disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We also analysed results on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility. Almost three billion individuals were estimated to have a migraine or tension-type headache in 2016: 1·89 billion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·71–2·10) with tension-type headache and 1·04 billion (95% UI 1·00–1·09) with migraine. However, because migraine had a much higher disability weight than tension-type headache, migraine caused 45·1 million (95% UI 29·0–62·8) and tension-type headache only 7·2 million (95% UI 4·6–10·5) YLDs globally in 2016. The headaches were most burdensome in women between ages 15 and 49 years, with migraine causing 20·3 million (95% UI 12·9–28·5) and tension-type headache 2·9 million (95% UI 1·8–4·2) YLDs in 2016, which was 11·2% of all YLDs in this age group and sex. Age-standardised DALYs for each headache type showed a small increase as SDI increased. Although current estimates are based on limited data, our study shows that headache disorders, and migraine in particular, are important causes of disability worldwide, and deserve greater attention in health policy debates and research resource allocation. Future iterations of this study, based on sources from additional countries and with less methodological heterogeneity, should help to provide stronger evidence of the need for action. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The report draws on world-class expertise from climate scientists, ecologists, mathematicians, geographers, engineers, energy, food, livestock, and transport experts, economists, social and political scientists, public health professionals, and doctors. The Lancet Countdown's work builds on decades of research in this field, and was first proposed in the 2015 Lancet Commission on health and climate change,1 which documented the human impacts of climate change and provided ten global recommendations to respond to this public health emergency and secure the public health benefits available (panel 1). The following four key messages derive from the Lancet Countdown's 2018 report Present day changes in heat waves, labour capacity, vector-borne disease, and food security provide early warning of the compounded and overwhelming impact on public health that are expected if temperatures continue to rise. Correspondingly, global subsidies for fossil fuels continued to decrease, and carbon pricing only covers 13·1% of global greenhouse-gas emissions, a number that is expected to increase to more than 20% when planned legislation in China is implemented in late 2018 (indicators 4.6 and 4.7).

ObjectivesUsing the findings of the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), we report the burden of primary headache disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) from 1990 to 2016.MethodsWe modelled headache disorders using DisMod-MR 2.1 Bayesian meta-regression tool to ensure consistency between prevalence, incidence, and remission. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were calculated by multiplying prevalence and disability weight (DW) of migraine and tension-type headache (TTH). We assumed primary headache disorders as non-fatal, so their YLD is equal to disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).ResultsMigraine and TTH were the second and twentieth leading causes of YLDs in EMR. Between 1990 and 2016, the absolute YLD numbers of migraine and TTH increased from 2.3 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1.5–3.2) to 4.7 million (95%UI: 3–6.5) and from 383 thousand (95%UI: 240–562) to 816 thousand (95%UI: 516–1221), respectively. During the same period, age-standardised YLD rates of migraine and TTH in EMR increased by 0.7% and 2.5%, respectively, in comparison to a small decrease in the global rates (0.2% decrease in migraine and TTH). The bulk of burden due to headache occurred in the 30–49 year age group, with a peak at ages 35–44 years. The age-standardised YLD rates of both headache disorders were higher in women with female to male ratio of 1.69 for migraine and 1.38 for TTH. All countries of the EMR except for Somalia and Djibouti had higher age-standardised YLD rates for migraine and TTH in compare to the global rates. Libya and Saudi Arabia had the highest increase in age-standardised YLD rates of migraine and TTH, respectively.ConclusionThe findings of this study show that primary headache disorders are a major and a growing cause of disability in EMR. Since 1990, burden of primary headache disorders has constantly been higher in EMR compared to rest of the world, which indicates that health systems in EMR must focus further on developing and implementing preventive and management strategies to control headache.

In 2014, a series of reforms, called as the Health Sector Evolution Plan (HSEP), was launched in the health system of Iran in a stepwise process. HSEP was mainly based on the fifth 5-year health development national strategies (2011-2016). It included different interventions to: increase population coverage of basic health insurance, increase quality of care in the Ministry of Health and Medical Education (MoHME) affiliated hospitals, reduce out-of-pocket (OOP) payments for inpatient services, increase quality of primary healthcare, launch updated relative value units (RVUs) of clinical services, and update tariffs to more realistic values. The reforms resulted in extensive social reaction and different professional feedback. The official monitoring program shows general public satisfaction. However, there are some concerns for sustainability of the programs and equity of financing. Securing financial sources and fairness of the financial contribution to the new programs are the main concerns of policy-makers. Healthcare providers' concerns (as powerful and influential stakeholders) potentially threat the sustainability and efficiency of HSEP. Previous experiences on extending health insurance coverage show that they can lead to a regressive healthcare financing and threat financial equity. To secure financial sources and to increase fairness, the contributions of people to new interventions should be progressive by their income and wealth. A specific progressive tax would be the best source, however, since it is not immediately feasible, a stepwise increase in the progressivity of financing must be followed. Technical concerns of healthcare providers (such as nonplausible RVUs for specific procedures or nonefficient insurance-provider processes) should be addressed through proper revision(s) while nontechnical concerns (which are derived from conflicting interests) must be responded through clarification and providing transparent information. The requirements of HSEP and especially the key element of progressive tax should be considered properly in the coming sixth national development plan (2016-2021).