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320 result(s) for "Morice, P"
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Hemispheric and large-scale land-surface air temperature variations: An extensive revision and an update to 2010
This study is an extensive revision of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) land station temperature database that has been used to produce a grid‐box data set of 5° latitude × 5° longitude temperature anomalies. The new database (CRUTEM4) comprises 5583 station records of which 4842 have enough data for the 1961–1990 period to calculate or estimate the average temperatures for this period. Many station records have had their data replaced by newly homogenized series that have been produced by a number of studies, particularly from National Meteorological Services (NMSs). Hemispheric temperature averages for land areas developed with the new CRUTEM4 data set differ slightly from their CRUTEM3 equivalent. The inclusion of much additional data from the Arctic (particularly the Russian Arctic) has led to estimates for the Northern Hemisphere (NH) being warmer by about 0.1°C for the years since 2001. The NH/Southern Hemisphere (SH) warms by 1.12°C/0.84°C over the period 1901–2010. The robustness of the hemispheric averages is assessed by producing five different analyses, each including a different subset of 20% of the station time series and by omitting some large countries. CRUTEM4 is also compared with hemispheric averages produced by reanalyses undertaken by the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): ERA‐40 (1958–2001) and ERA‐Interim (1979–2010) data sets. For the NH, agreement is good back to 1958 and excellent from 1979 at monthly, annual, and decadal time scales. For the SH, agreement is poorer, but if the area is restricted to the SH north of 60°S, the agreement is dramatically improved from the mid‐1970s. Key Points Revised and updated version of a data set Series robust to numerous choices Series agrees with reanalysis output since 1970s
Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set
Recent developments in observational near‐surface air temperature and sea‐surface temperature analyses are combined to produce HadCRUT4, a new data set of global and regional temperature evolution from 1850 to the present. This includes the addition of newly digitized measurement data, both over land and sea, new sea‐surface temperature bias adjustments and a more comprehensive error model for describing uncertainties in sea‐surface temperature measurements. An ensemble approach has been adopted to better describe complex temporal and spatial interdependencies of measurement and bias uncertainties and to allow these correlated uncertainties to be taken into account in studies that are based upon HadCRUT4. Climate diagnostics computed from the gridded data set broadly agree with those of other global near‐surface temperature analyses. Fitted linear trends in temperature anomalies are approximately 0.07°C/decade from 1901 to 2010 and 0.17°C/decade from 1979 to 2010 globally. Northern/southern hemispheric trends are 0.08/0.07°C/decade over 1901 to 2010 and 0.24/0.10°C/decade over 1979 to 2010. Linear trends in other prominent near‐surface temperature analyses agree well with the range of trends computed from the HadCRUT4 ensemble members. Key Points Updated version of a global temperature data set An ensemble approach is adopted to describe correlated uncertainties Improved estimates of uncertainty in global and regional temperature timeseries
Ecological design of augmentation improves helicopter ship landing maneuvers: An approach in augmented virtuality
Helicopter landing on a ship is a visually regulated \"rendezvous\" task during which pilots must use fine control to land a powerful rotorcraft on the deck of a moving ship tossed by the sea while minimizing the energy at impact. Although augmented reality assistance can be hypothesized to improve pilots’ performance and the safety of landing maneuvers by guiding action toward optimal behavior in complex and stressful situations, the question of the optimal information to be displayed to feed the pilots’ natural information-movement coupling remains to be investigated. Novice participants were instructed to land a simplified helicopter on a ship in a virtual reality simulator while minimizing energy at impact and landing duration. The wave amplitude and related ship heave were manipulated. We compared the benefits of two types of visual augmentation whose design was based on either solving cockpit-induced visual occlusion problems or strengthening the online regulation of the deceleration by keeping the current τ ˙ variable around an ideal value of -0.5 to conduct smooth and efficient landing. Our results showed that the second augmentation, ecologically grounded, offers benefits at several levels of analysis. It decreases the landing duration, improves the control of the helicopter displacement, and sharpens the sensitivity to changes in τ ˙ . This underlines the importance for designers of augmented reality systems to collaborate with psychologists to identify the relevant perceptual-motor strategy that must be encouraged before designing an augmentation that will enhance it.
Warming effects of reduced sulfur emissions from shipping
The regulation introduced in 2020 that limits the sulfur content in shipping fuel has reduced sulfur emissions over global open oceans by about 80 %. This is expected to have reduced aerosols that both reflect solar radiation directly and affect cloud properties, with the latter also changing the solar radiation balance. Here we investigate the impacts of this regulation on aerosols and climate in the HadGEM3-GC3.1-LL climate model. The global aerosol effective radiative forcing caused by reduced shipping emissions is estimated to be 0.13 W m−2, which is equivalent to an additional ∼50 % to the net positive forcing resulting from the reduction in all anthropogenic aerosols from the late-20th century to the pre-2020 era. Ensembles of global coupled simulations from 2020–2049 predict a global mean warming of 0.04 K averaged over this period. Our simulations are not clear on whether the global impact is yet to emerge or has already emerged because the present-day impact is masked by variability. Nevertheless, the impact of shipping emission reductions either will have already committed us to warming above the 1.5 K Paris target or will represent an important contribution that may help explain part of the rapid jump in global temperatures over the last 12 months. Consistent with previous aerosol perturbation simulations, the warming is greatest in the Arctic, reaching a mean of 0.15 K Arctic-wide and 0.3 K in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic (which represents a greater than 10 % increase in the total anthropogenic warming since pre-industrial times).
Visual augmentation of deck-landing-ability improves helicopter ship landing decisions
When attempting to land on a ship deck tossed by the sea, helicopter pilots must make sure that the helicopter can develop sufficient lift to be able to safely touchdown. This reminder of affordance theory led us to model and study the affordance of deck-landing-ability, which defines whether it is possible to land safely on a ship deck depending on the helicopter's available lift and the ship’s deck heave movements. Two groups of participants with no piloting experience using a laptop helicopter simulator attempted to land either a low-lifter or a heavy-lifter helicopter on a virtual ship deck by either triggering a pre-programmed lift serving as the descent law if it was deemed possible to land, or aborting the deck-landing maneuver. The deck-landing-ability was manipulated by varying the helicopter's initial altitude and the ship's heave phase between trials. We designed a visual augmentation making visible the deck-landing-ability, and thus enabling participants to maximize the safety of their deck-landing attempts and reduce the number of unsafe deck-landing. The visual augmentation presented here was perceived by participants as a means of facilitating this decision-making process. The benefits were found to have originated from the clear-cut distinction it helped them to make between safe and unsafe deck-landing windows and the display of the optimal time for initiating the landing.
ESMO–ESGO consensus conference recommendations on ovarian cancer: pathology and molecular biology, early and advanced stages, borderline tumours and recurrent disease
The development of guidelines is one of the core activities of the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) and European Society of Gynaecologial Oncology (ESGO), as part of the mission of both societies to improve the quality of care for patients with cancer across Europe. ESMO and ESGO jointly developed clinically relevant and evidence-based recommendations in several selected areas in order to improve the quality of care for women with ovarian cancer. The ESMO–ESGO consensus conference on ovarian cancer was held on April 12–14, 2018 in Milan, Italy, and comprised a multidisciplinary panel of 40 leading experts in the management of ovarian cancer. Before the conference, the expert panel worked on five clinically relevant questions regarding ovarian cancer relating to each of the following four areas: pathology and molecular biology, early-stage and borderline tumours, advanced stage disease and recurrent disease. Relevant scientific literature, as identified using a systematic search, was reviewed in advance. During the consensus conference, the panel developed recommendations for each specific question and a consensus was reached. The recommendations presented here are thus based on the best available evidence and expert agreement. This article presents the recommendations of this ESMO–ESGO consensus conference, together with a summary of evidence supporting each recommendation.
On the effect of reference periods on trends in percentile-based extreme temperature indices
A number of studies have noted that the use of distinct reference periods when comparing indices measuring the frequency of days exceeding a particular temperature percentile threshold leads to apparently different behaviour. We show that these differences arise because of the interplay between the increasing temperatures and the choice of reference period. The time series of the indicators calculated using the different reference periods are offset, as expected, but also diverge. Linear trends calculated over the same period from the same underlying data but where different reference periods have been used are substantially different if a change in climatological conditions has occurred between the two reference periods. We show this not only occurs in our simple empirical approach, but also for the averages of gridded observational and reanalysis datasets and also at a station level. This has implications for data set comparisons using trends in temperature percentile indices that are based on different reference periods. It also has implications for updates to standard reference periods used to monitor the climate.
Eye position affects flight altitude in visual approach to landing independent of level of expertise of pilot
The present study addresses the effect of the eye position in the cockpit on the flight altitude during the final approach to landing. Three groups of participants with different levels of expertise (novices, trainees, and certified pilots) were given a laptop with a flight simulator and they were asked to maintain a 3.71° glide slope while landing. Each participant performed 40 approaches to the runway. During 8 of the approaches, the point of view that the flight simulator used to compute the visual scene was slowly raised or lowered with 4 cm with respect to the cockpit, hence moving the projection of the visible part of the cockpit down or up in the visible scene in a hardly noticeable manner. The increases and decreases in the simulated eye height led to increases and decreases in the altitude of the approach trajectories, for all three groups of participants. On the basis of these results, it is argued that the eye position of pilots during visual approaches is a factor that contributes to the risk of black hole accidents.
Prostate radiotherapy may cause fertility issues: a retrospective analysis of testicular dose following modern radiotherapy techniques
Background Prostate cancer in younger men is rare but not exceptional. Radiotherapy is a cornerstone of prostate cancer treatment and yet, its impact on fertility is scarcely reported in literature. Given the radiosensitivity of testicular tissue, this study aimed to determine the testicular dose using modern radiotherapy techniques for definitive prostate irradiation. Methods One hundred radiotherapy plans were reviewed. Testicles were contoured retrospectively without dosimetric optimization on testicles. Results The median testicular dose was 0.58 Gy: 0.18 Gy in stereotactic plans, 0.62 Gy in Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy plans and 1.50 Gy in Tomotherapy plans ( p  < 0.001). Pelvic nodal irradiation increased the median testicular dose to 1.18 Gy versus 0.26 Gy without nodal irradiation ( p  < 0.001). Weight and BMI were inversely associated with testicular dose ( p  < 0.005). 65% of patients reached the theoretical dose threshold for transient azoospermia, and 10% received more than 2 Gy, likely causing definitive azoospermia. Conclusion Despite being probably lower than doses from older techniques, the testicular dose delivered with modern prostate radiotherapy is not negligible and is often underestimated because the contribution of daily repositioning imaging is not taken into account and most Treatment Planning Systems underestimate the out of field dose. Radiation oncologists should consider the impact on fertility and gonadal endocrine function, counseling men on sperm preservation if they wish to maintain fertility. Trial registration : retrospectively registered.
Importance of beginning industrial-era climate simulations in the eighteenth century
Climate simulations of the industrial era typically start in 1850, using the first fifty years as a baseline for ‘pre-industrial’ climate. However, the period immediately prior to 1850 is of particular interest due to early human influence and heightened volcanic activity, the latter of which led to cooler global temperatures than those observed in the subsequent historical period. In this study, we present a suite of Earth system model simulations (using UKESM1.1) that start in 1750 and span the entire industrial period. We compare these simulations to a new instrumental observation-based dataset, GloSATref, which provides global surface air temperature variations from 1781 onwards. We investigate the climatic changes during the early industrial period, separating the effects of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Model-simulated early-19th-century temperature patterns show substantial cooling relative to the long-term mean, particularly in low latitudes, which agree well with observed patterns. We find significant long-term differences between simulations initialized in 1750 and 1850, with lasting effects well into the 20th century, consistent with differences in vegetation and the substantial ocean cooling driven by high volcanic activity in the 1750 simulations. Our results indicate that an earlier start to historical simulations could lead to more representative climate simulations over the historical period, and deepen our understanding of early anthropogenic warming, natural climate variability, and the climate responses to future volcanic eruptions.