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BackgroundUK Asian and Black ethnic groups have poorer outcomes for some cancers and are less likely to report a positive care experience than their White counterparts. This study investigated ethnic differences in the route to diagnosis (RTD) to identify areas in patients' cancer journeys where inequalities lie, and targeted intervention might have optimum impact.MethodsWe analysed data of 243,825 patients with 10 cancers (2006–2016) from the RTD project linked to primary care data. Crude and adjusted proportions of patients diagnosed via six routes (emergency, elective GP referral, two-week wait (2WW), screen-detected, hospital, and Other routes) were calculated by ethnicity. Adjusted odds ratios (including two-way interactions between cancer and age, sex, IMD, and ethnicity) determined cancer-specific differences in RTD by ethnicity.ResultsAcross the 10 cancers studied, most patients were diagnosed via 2WW (36.4%), elective GP referral (23.2%), emergency (18.2%), hospital routes (10.3%), and screening (8.61%). Patients of Other ethnic group had the highest proportion of diagnosis via the emergency route, followed by White patients. Asian and Black group were more likely to be GP-referred, with the Black and Mixed groups also more likely to follow the 2WW route. However, there were notable cancer-specific differences in the RTD by ethnicity.ConclusionOur findings suggest that, where inequalities exist, the adverse cancer outcomes among Asian and Black patients are unlikely to be arising solely from a poorer diagnostic process.

Background Black men have higher prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels and higher prostate cancer incidence and mortality than White men, while Asian men tend to have lower prostate cancer incidence and mortality than White men. Much of the evidence comes from the USA, and information from UK populations is limited. Methods This retrospective cohort study used data on patients registered at general practices in England contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum dataset. Those eligible were men aged 40 and over with a record of ethnicity and a PSA test result recorded between 2010 and 2017 with no prior cancer diagnosis. The aim was to assess the incidence of prostate cancer following a raised PSA test result in men from different ethnic groups. Additionally, incidence of advanced prostate cancer was investigated. Cancer incidence was estimated from multi-level logistic regression models adjusting for potential confounding factors. Results 730,515 men with a PSA test were included (88.9% White). Black men and men with mixed ethnicity had higher PSA values, particularly for those aged above 60 years. In the year following a raised PSA result (using age-specific thresholds), Black men had the highest prostate cancer incidence at 24.7% (95% CI 23.3%, 26.2%); Asian men had the lowest at 13.4% (12.2%, 14.7%); incidence for White men was 19.8% (19.4%, 20.2%). The peak incidence of prostate cancer for all groups was in men aged 70–79. Incidence of prostate cancer diagnosed at an advanced stage was similar between Black and White men. Conclusions More prostate cancer was diagnosed in Black men with a raised PSA result, but rates of advanced prostate cancer were not higher in this group. In this large primary care-based cohort, the incidence of prostate cancer in men with elevated PSA levels increases with increasing age, even when using age-adjusted thresholds, with Black men significantly more likely to be diagnosed compared to White or Asian men. The incidence of advanced stage prostate cancer at diagnosis was similar for Black and White men with a raised PSA result, but lower for Asian men.

Background: Pre-existing non-cancer conditions may complicate and delay colorectal cancer diagnosis. Method: Incident cases (aged ⩾40 years, 2007–2009) with colorectal cancer were identified in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, UK. Diagnostic interval was defined as time from first symptomatic presentation of colorectal cancer to diagnosis. Comorbid conditions were classified as ‘competing demands’ (unrelated to colorectal cancer) or ‘alternative explanations’ (sharing symptoms with colorectal cancer). The association between diagnostic interval (log-transformed) and age, gender, consultation rate and number of comorbid conditions was investigated using linear regressions, reported using geometric means. Results: Out of the 4512 patients included, 72.9% had ⩾1 competing demand and 31.3% had ⩾1 alternative explanation. In the regression model, the numbers of both types of comorbid conditions were independently associated with longer diagnostic interval: a single competing demand delayed diagnosis by 10 days, and four or more by 32 days; and a single alternative explanation by 9 days. For individual conditions, the longest delay was observed for inflammatory bowel disease (26 days; 95% CI 14–39). Conclusions: The burden and nature of comorbidity is associated with delayed diagnosis in colorectal cancer, particularly in patients aged ⩾80 years. Effective clinical strategies are needed for shortening diagnostic interval in patients with comorbidity.

Objectives: This study aimed to assess any ethnic differences in blood calcium and albumin levels for patients receiving these tests in primary care, and to investigate how this affects the use of these markers in assessing cancer risk. Methods: The analysis was based on a primary care dataset comprising patients in England. Multilevel logistic regression was used to investigate the relationship between blood test results and cancer risk by ethnic group. Results: A total of 4,632,856 patients were eligible for the albumin analysis, and 1,979,763 for the calcium analysis. Raised calcium levels were indicative of an increased risk of cancer, with diagnostic odds ratios (ORs) ranging from 2.0 to 2.7 for the different ethnic groups. ORs for myeloma were between 6.6 and 13.6. Similarly, low albumin was associated with an increased risk of cancer with an OR of between 3.2 and 3.8, myeloma (OR between 8.7 and 10.0), and liver cancer (OR between 9.2 and 15.7). Conclusions: Albumin and corrected calcium were effective indicators of cancer risk, and more specifically of risk of myeloma. Albumin levels were also linked with liver cancer risk. While there are some differences in typical corrected calcium and albumin levels between ethnic groups, there was no evidence that this had an effect on the usefulness of these markers to infer cancer risk.

Current methods for estimating the timeliness of cancer diagnosis are not robust because dates of key defining milestones, for example first presentation, are uncertain. This is exacerbated when patients have other conditions (multimorbidity), particularly those that share symptoms with cancer. Methods independent of this uncertainty are needed for accurate estimates of the timeliness of cancer diagnosis, and to understand how multimorbidity impacts the diagnostic process. Participants were diagnosed with oesophagogastric cancer between 2010 and 2019. Controls were matched on year of birth, sex, general practice and multimorbidity burden calculated using the Cambridge Multimorbidity Score. Primary care data (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) was used to explore population-level consultation rates for up to two years before diagnosis across different multimorbidity burdens. Five approaches were compared on the timing of the consultation frequency increase, the inflection point for different multimorbidity burdens, different aggregated time-periods and sample sizes. We included 15,410 participants, of which 13,328 (86.5 %) had a measurable multimorbidity burden. Our new maximum likelihood estimation method found evidence that the inflection point in consultation frequency varied with multimorbidity burden, from 154 days (95 %CI 131.8–176.2) before diagnosis for patients with no multimorbidity, to 126 days (108.5–143.5) for patients with the greatest multimorbidity burden. Inflection points identified using alternative methods were closer to diagnosis for up to three burden groups. Sample size reduction and changing the aggregation period resulted in inflection points closer to diagnosis, with the smallest change for the maximum likelihood method. Existing methods to identify changes in consultation rates can introduce substantial bias which depends on sample size and aggregation period. The direct maximum likelihood method was less prone to this bias than other methods and offers a robust, population-level alternative for estimating the timeliness of cancer diagnosis. •Cancer diagnostic timeliness estimates with low bias and uncertainty are needed.•Methods estimating change in consultation rate before diagnosis were explored.•The population-level maximum likelihood method had minimal bias.•The inflection point in consultation frequency varied with multimorbidity burden.

BackgroundGuidelines recommend urgent chest X-ray for newly presenting dyspnoea or haemoptysis but there is little evidence about their implementation.MethodsWe analysed linked primary care and hospital imaging data for patients aged 30+ years newly presenting with dyspnoea or haemoptysis in primary care during April 2012 to March 2017. We examined guideline-concordant management, defined as General Practitioner-ordered chest X-ray/CT carried out within 2 weeks of symptomatic presentation, and variation by sociodemographic characteristic and relevant medical history using logistic regression. Additionally, among patients diagnosed with cancer we described time to diagnosis, diagnostic route and stage at diagnosis by guideline-concordant status.ResultsIn total, 22 560/162 161 (13.9%) patients with dyspnoea and 4022/8120 (49.5%) patients with haemoptysis received guideline-concordant imaging within the recommended 2-week period. Patients with recent chest imaging pre-presentation were much less likely to receive imaging (adjusted OR 0.16, 95% CI 0.14–0.18 for dyspnoea, and adjusted OR 0.09, 95% CI 0.06–0.11 for haemoptysis). History of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease/asthma was also associated with lower odds of guideline concordance (dyspnoea: OR 0.234, 95% CI 0.225–0.242 and haemoptysis: 0.88, 0.79–0.97). Guideline-concordant imaging was lower among dyspnoea presenters with prior heart failure; current or ex-smokers; and those in more socioeconomically disadvantaged groups.The likelihood of lung cancer diagnosis within 12 months was greater among the guideline-concordant imaging group (dyspnoea: 1.1% vs 0.6%; haemoptysis: 3.5% vs 2.7%).ConclusionThe likelihood of receiving urgent imaging concords with the risk of subsequent cancer diagnosis. Nevertheless, large proportions of dyspnoea and haemoptysis presenters do not receive prompt chest imaging despite being eligible, indicating opportunities for earlier lung cancer diagnosis.

Human epididymis 4 (HE4) is a promising ovarian cancer biomarker, but it has not been evaluated in primary care. In this prospective observational study, we investigated the diagnostic accuracy of HE4 alone and in combination with CA125 for the detection of ovarian cancer in symptomatic women attending primary care. General practitioner (GP)-requested CA125 samples were tested for HE4 at a large teaching hospital in Manchester, and cancer outcomes were tracked for 12 months. We found a low incidence of ovarian cancer in primary care; thus, the cohort was enriched with pre-surgical samples from 81 ovarian cancer patients. The Risk of Ovarian Malignancy Algorithm (ROMA) was calculated using age (51) as a surrogate for menopause. Conventional diagnostic accuracy metrics were determined. A total of 1229 patients were included; 82 had ovarian cancer. Overall, ROMA performed best (AUC-0.96 (95%CI: 0.94–0.98, p = <0.001)). In women under 50 years, the combination of CA125 and HE4 (either marker positive) was superior (sensitivity: 100% (95%CI: 81.5–100.0), specificity: 80.1% (95%CI 76.7–83.1)). In women over 50, ROMA performed best (sensitivity: 84.4% (95%CI: 73.1–92.2), specificity: 87.2% (95%CI 84.1–90)). HE4 and ROMA may improve ovarian cancer detection in primary care, particularly for women under 50 years, in whom diagnosis is challenging. Validation in a larger primary care cohort is required.

Background CA-125 testing is a recommended first line investigation for women presenting with possible symptoms of ovarian cancer in English primary care, to help determine whether further investigation for ovarian cancer is needed. It is currently not known how well the CA-125 test performs in ovarian cancer detection for patients from different ethnic groups. Methods A retrospective cohort study utilising English primary care data linked to the national cancer registry was undertaken. Women aged ≥ 40 years with a CA-125 test between 2010 and 2017 were included. Logistic regression predicted one-year ovarian cancer incidence by ethnicity, adjusting for age, deprivation status, and comorbidity score. The estimated incidence of ovarian cancer by CA-125 level was modelled for each ethnic group using restricted cubic splines. Results The diagnostic performance of CA-125 differed for women from different ethnicities. In an unadjusted analysis, predicted CA-125 levels for Asian and Black women were higher than White women at corresponding probabilities of ovarian cancer. The higher PPVs for White women compared to Asian or Black women were eliminated by inclusion of covariates. Conclusion The introduction of ethnicity-specific thresholds may increase the specificity and PPVs of CA-125 in ovarian cancer detection at the expense of sensitivity, particularly for Asian and Black women. As such, we cannot recommend the use of ethnicity-specific thresholds for CA-125.

The platelet count, a component of the full blood count, has been identified as a useful diagnostic marker for cancer in primary care. The reference range for the platelet count is 150 to 400 or 450 × 109/L; this range does not account for natural variation in platelet count by age and sex. This study used three primary care cohorts from England, Canada, and Australia. Patients aged 40 years and over with a full blood count were included and stratified by age (in 10-year bands), sex, (male/female), and platelet count group. Cancer incidence within one year of the test date was estimated from linked registry data. In all three countries, there was a clear upwards trend in cancer incidence with increasing platelet count for both sexes and at all age groups. Lung and colorectal were the most common sites. These results have important implications for the international application of this work; analysis of local health datasets will be crucial to determining appropriate thresholds. Appropriate upper thresholds will depend on local populations, healthcare needs, and priorities. Further research is needed to assess the likely impact of new recommendations on the healthcare system, on cancer outcomes, and patient benefit.

Background Loneliness is a common experience following stroke. Stroke support groups may protect against loneliness, but little is known about how these groups exert their influence. This research drew upon current theorising on the role of groups for health and explored i) social identification as a potential mechanism for overcoming loneliness, and ii) psychological group resources (support, control, self-esteem), and functional group processes (clear goals, group autonomy, member continuity) which might structure social identification. Methods Five hundred seventy-nine stroke survivors from 84 Stroke Association support groups across the UK completed a cross-sectional survey measuring: support group identification; psychological resources (given and received social support, control, self-esteem, identity centrality); functional processes (goal clarity, group autonomy, member continuity); and loneliness (3-item UCLA Loneliness Scale). Results Greater support group identification was associated with reduced loneliness (β = -0.45, p  < 0.001). Given (β = 0.17, p  = 0.001) and received (β = 0.10, p  < 0.001) social support, goal clarity (β = 0.17, p  = 0.002), and group member continuity (β = 0.19, p  < 0.001) were all associated with greater support group identification. Conclusions Social identification with the group may be a mechanism by which stroke support groups alleviate loneliness, potentially through facilitating attendance, mutual social support and the development of collective goals. Further research should explore how these processes influence social identification in newly formed groups, where social identity has not yet been established.