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Today's scientists are facing the enormous challenge of predicting how climate change will affect species distributions and species assemblages. To do so, ecologists are widely using phenomenological models of species distributions that mainly rely on the concept of species niche and generally ignore species' demography, species' adaptive potential, and biotic interactions. This review examines the potential role of the emerging synthetic discipline of evolutionary community ecology in improving our understanding of how climate change will alter future distribution of biodiversity. We review theoretical and empirical advances about the role of niche evolution, interspecific interactions, and their interplay in altering species geographic ranges and community assembly. We discuss potential ways to integrate complex feedbacks between ecology and evolution in ecological forecasting. We also point at a number of caveats in our understanding of the eco-evolutionary consequences of climate change and highlight several challenges for future research.

The potential consequences of biodiversity loss for ecosystem functioning and services at local scales have received considerable attention during the last decade, but little is known about how biodiversity affects ecosystem processes and stability at larger spatial scales. We propose that biodiversity provides spatial insurance for ecosystem functioning by virtue of spatial exchanges among local systems in heterogeneous landscapes. We explore this hypothesis by using a simple theoretical metacommunity model with explicit local consumer-resource dynamics and dispersal among systems. Our model shows that variation in dispersal rate affects the temporal mean and variability of ecosystem productivity strongly and nonmonotonically through two mechanisms: spatial averaging by the intermediate-type species that tends to dominate the landscape at high dispersal rates, and functional compensations between species that are made possible by the maintenance of species diversity. The spatial insurance effects of species diversity are highest at the intermediate dispersal rates that maximize local diversity. These results have profound implications for conservation and management. Knowledge of spatial processes across ecosystems is critical to predict the effects of landscape changes on both biodiversity and ecosystem functioning and services.

Around the world, the human-induced collapses of populations and species have triggered a sixth mass extinction crisis, with rare species often being the first to disappear. Although the role of species diversity in the maintenance of ecosystem processes has been widely investigated, the role of rare species remains controversial. A critical issue is whether common species insure against the loss of functions supported by rare species. This issue is even more critical in species-rich ecosystems where high functional redundancy among species is likely and where it is thus often assumed that ecosystem functioning is buffered against species loss. Here, using extensive datasets of species occurrences and functional traits from three highly diverse ecosystems (846 coral reef fishes, 2,979 alpine plants, and 662 tropical trees), we demonstrate that the most distinct combinations of traits are supported predominantly by rare species both in terms of local abundance and regional occupancy. Moreover, species that have low functional redundancy and are likely to support the most vulnerable functions, with no other species carrying similar combinations of traits, are rarer than expected by chance in all three ecosystems. For instance, 63% and 98% of fish species that are likely to support highly vulnerable functions in coral reef ecosystems are locally and regionally rare, respectively. For alpine plants, 32% and 89% of such species are locally and regionally rare, respectively. Remarkably, 47% of fish species and 55% of tropical tree species that are likely to support highly vulnerable functions have only one individual per sample on average. Our results emphasize the importance of rare species conservation, even in highly diverse ecosystems, which are thought to exhibit high functional redundancy. Rare species offer more than aesthetic, cultural, or taxonomic diversity value; they disproportionately increase the potential breadth of functions provided by ecosystems across spatial scales. As such, they are likely to insure against future uncertainty arising from climate change and the ever-increasing anthropogenic pressures on ecosystems. Our results call for a more detailed understanding of the role of rarity and functional vulnerability in ecosystem functioning.

In a rapidly changing world, ecology has the potential to move from empirical and conceptual stages to application and management issues. It is now possible to make large‐scale predictions up to continental or global scales, ranging from the future distribution of biological diversity to changes in ecosystem functioning and services. With these recent developments, ecology has a historical opportunity to become a major actor in the development of a sustainable human society. With this opportunity, however, also comes an important responsibility in developing appropriate predictive models, correctly interpreting their outcomes and communicating their limitations. There is also a danger that predictions grow faster than our understanding of ecological systems, resulting in a gap between the scientists generating the predictions and stakeholders using them (conservation biologists, environmental managers, journalists, policymakers). Here, we use the context provided by the current surge of ecological predictions on the future of biodiversity to clarify what prediction means, and to pinpoint the challenges that should be addressed in order to improve predictive ecological models and the way they are understood and used. Synthesis and applications. Ecologists face several challenges to ensure the healthy development of an operational predictive ecological science: (i) clarity on the distinction between explanatory and anticipatory predictions; (ii) developing new theories at the interface between explanatory and anticipatory predictions; (iii) open data to test and validate predictions; (iv) making predictions operational; and (v) developing a genuine ethics of prediction.

1. Ecological specialization is one of the main concepts in ecology and conservation. However, this concept has become highly context-dependent and is now obscured by the great variability of existing definitions and methods used to characterize ecological specialization. 2. In this study, we clarify this concept by reviewing the strengths and limitations of different approaches commonly used to define and measure ecological specialization. We first show that ecological specialization can either be considered as reflecting species' requirements or species' impacts. We then explain how specialization depends on species-specific characteristics and on local and contingent environmental constraints. We further show why and how ecological specialization should be scaled across spatial and temporal scales, and from individuals to communities. 3. We then illustrate how this review can be used as a practical toolbox to classify widely used metrics of ecological specialization in applied ecology, depending on the question being addressed, the method used, and the data available. 4. Synthesis and applications. Clarifying ecological specialization is useful to make explicit connections between several fields of ecology using the niche concept. Defining this concept and its practical metrics is also a crucial step to better formulate predictions of scientific interest in ecology and conservation. Finally, understanding the different facets of ecological specialization should facilitate to investigate the causes and consequences of biotic homogenization and to derive relevant indicators of biodiversity responses to land-use changes.

The concept of life-history traits and the study of these traits are the hallmark of population biology. Acknowledging their variability and evolution has allowed us to understand how species adapt in response to their environment. The same traits are also involved in how species alter ecosystems and shape their dynamics and functioning. Some theories, such as the metabolic theory of ecology, ecological stoichiometry or pace-of-life theory, already recognize this junction, but only do so in an implicitly non-spatial context. Meanwhile, for a decade now, it has been argued that ecosystem properties have to be understood at a larger scale using meta-ecosystem theory because source–sink dynamics, community assembly and ecosystem stability are all modified by spatial structure. Here, we argue that some ecosystem properties can be linked to a single life-history trait, dispersal, i.e. the tendency of organisms to live, compete and reproduce away from their birth place. By articulating recent theoretical and empirical studies linking ecosystem functioning and dynamics to species dispersal, we aim to highlight both the known connections between life-history traits and ecosystem properties and the unknown areas, which deserve further empirical and theoretical developments.

Ecosystem services provided by oceans and seas support most human needs but are threatened by human activities. Despite existing maps illustrating human impacts on marine ecosystems, information remains either large-scale but rough and insufficient for stakeholders (1 km² grid, lack of data along the coast) or fine-scale but fragmentary and heterogeneous in methodology. The objectives of this study are to map and quantify the main pressures exerted on near-coast marine ecosystems, at a large spatial scale though in fine and relevant resolution for managers (one pixel = 20 x 20 m). It focuses on the French Mediterranean coast (1,700 km of coastline including Corsica) at a depth of 0 to 80 m. After completing and homogenizing data presently available under GIS on the bathymetry and anthropogenic pressures but also on the seabed nature and ecosystem vulnerability, we provide a fine modeling of the extent and impacts of 10 anthropogenic pressures on marine habitats. The considered pressures are man-made coastline, boat anchoring, aquaculture, urban effluents, industrial effluents, urbanization, agriculture, coastline erosion, coastal population and fishing. A 1:10 000 continuous habitat map is provided considering 11 habitat classes. The marine bottom is mostly covered by three habitats: infralittoral soft bottom, Posidonia oceanica meadows and circalittoral soft bottom. Around two thirds of the bottoms are found within medium and medium high cumulative impact categories. Seagrass meadows are the most impacted habitats. The most important pressures (in area and intensity) are urbanization, coastal population, coastal erosion and man-made coastline. We also identified areas in need of a special management interest. This work should contribute to prioritize environmental needs, as well as enhance the development of indicators for the assessment of the ecological status of coastal systems. It could also help better apply and coordinate management measures at a relevant scale for biodiversity conservation.

Biogeography is primarily concerned with the spatial distribution of biodiversity, including performing scenarios in a changing environment. The efforts deployed to develop species distribution models have resulted in predictive tools, but have mostly remained correlative and have largely ignored biotic interactions. Here we build upon the theory of island biogeography as a first approximation to the assembly dynamics of local communities embedded within a metacommunity context. We include all types of interactions and introduce environmental constraints on colonization and extinction dynamics. We develop a probabilistic framework based on Markov chains and derive probabilities for the realization of species assemblages, rather than single species occurrences. We consider the expected distribution of species richness under different types of ecological interactions. We also illustrate the potential of our framework by studying the interplay between different ecological requirements, interactions and the distribution of biodiversity along an environmental gradient. Our framework supports the idea that the future research in biogeography requires a coherent integration of several ecological concepts into a single theory in order to perform conceptual and methodological innovations, such as the switch from single-species distribution to community distribution.

We are interested in understanding if metacommunity dynamics contribute to the persistence of complex spatial food webs subject to colonization-extinction dynamics. We study persistence as a measure of stability of communities within discrete patches, and ask how do species diversity, connectance, and topology influence it in spatially structured food webs. We answer this question first by identifying two general mechanisms linking topology of simple food web modules and persistence at the regional scale. We then assess the robustness of these mechanisms to more complex food webs with simulations based on randomly created and empirical webs found in the literature. We find that linkage proximity to primary producers and food web diversity generate a positive relationship between complexity and persistence in spatial food webs. The comparison between empirical and randomly created food webs reveal that the most important element for food web persistence under spatial colonization-extinction dynamics is the degree distribution: the number of prey species per consumer is more important than their identity. With a simple set of rules governing patch colonization and extinction, we have predicted that diversity and connectance promote persistence at the regional scale. The strength of our approach is that it reconciles the effect of complexity on stability at the local and the regional scale. Even if complex food webs are locally prone to extinction, we have shown their complexity could also promote their persistence through regional dynamics. The framework we presented here offers a novel and simple approach to understand the complexity of spatial food webs.

Species distribution in a metacommunity varies according to their traits, the distribution of environmental conditions and connectivity among localities. These ingredients contribute to coexistence across spatial scales via species sorting, patch dynamics, mass effects and neutral dynamics. These mechanisms however seldom act in isolation and the impact of landscape configuration on their relative importance remains poorly understood. We present a new model of metacommunity dynamics that simultaneously considers these four possible mechanisms over spatially explicit landscapes and propose a statistical approach to partition their contribution to species distribution. We find that landscape configuration can induce dispersal limitations that have negative consequences for local species richness. This result was more pronounced with neutral dynamics and mass effect than with species sorting or patch dynamics. We also find that the relative importance of the four mechanisms varies not only among landscape configurations, but also among species, with some species being mostly constrained by dispersal and/or drift and others by sorting. Changes in landscape properties might lead to a shift in coexistence mechanisms and, by extension, to a change in community composition. This confirms the importance of considering landscape properties for conservation and management. Our results illustrate the idea that ecological communities are the results of multiple mechanisms acting at the same time and complete our understanding of spatial processes in competitive metacommunities.