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"Mukharji, Aroop"
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Back Channel Negotiations and Dangerous Waiting
In times of unfettered international threats, the wise advice of Thomas Schelling deserves attention. Schelling prized communication. He stressed the need for enemies to establish channels of communication so that neither chance events nor innocent acts would be misinterpreted and thereby escalate a crisis, and possibly lead to catastrophic consequences. He also emphasized the importance of tacit communication between adversaries in order to avoid the hostilities mistakes can produce. He observed that in the era of nuclear weapons, given the ability of nations to inflict massive losses on each other, the payoffs from cooperation intended to avoid active hostilities were greatest between nations that were adversaries. He saw that neither war nor its avoidance is a zero-sum game. He did not believe that communication could solve every question of conflict. We believe that back channel negotiations (BCN) have provided and will continue to provide a critical mechanism that enables enemies to find cooperative solutions.
Journal Article
Bound to Happen: Explanation Bias in Historical Analysis
This paper argues that historical analysis, necessarily written with hindsight, often underestimates the uncertainties of the past. We call this tendency explanation bias. This bias leads individuals--including professional historians--to imply greater certainty in causal analyses than the evidence justifies. Their analyses will treat what is plausible to be probable. We offer a few intuitions about why explanation bias exists, its relation to other well-established psychological biases, what it leads to, and how it might be combatted. Appreciating the depth of uncertainty and ignorance in our world is critical for accurately understanding, interpreting, and drawing from the past to illuminate the present and the near future.
Paper
Colombia's democratic victory
In the 1930s and '40s, however, American democracy was deep-rooted and unchallenged, and the short break from the norm led to strict term limits that have been observed since. Whatever his accomplishments, including defeating terrorists and giving Colombians hope, his greatest gift to his people will be a society and political system based not on the power and appeal of an individual but on the rule of law.
Newspaper Article