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Despite general and wide-ranging negative effects of coral reef degradation on reef communities, hope might exist for reef-associated predators that use nursery habitats. When reef structural complexity is lost, refuge density declines and prey vulnerability increases. Here, we explore whether the presence of nursery habitats can promote high predator productivity on degraded reefs by mitigating the costs of increased vulnerability in early life, whilst allowing for the benefits of increased food availability in adulthood. We apply size-based ecosystem models of coral reefs with high and low structural complexity to predict fish biomass and productivity in the presence and absence of mangrove nurseries. Our scenarios allow us to elucidate the interacting effects of refuge availability and ontogenetic habitat shifts for fisheries productivity. We find that low complexity, degraded reefs with nurseries can support fisheries productivity that is equal to or greater than that in complex reefs that lack nurseries. We compare and validate model predictions with field data from Belize. Our results should inform reef fisheries management strategies and protected areas now and into the future.

Land‐use change in the coastal zone has led to worldwide degradation of marine coastal ecosystems and a loss of the goods and services they provide. Restoration is the process of assisting the recovery of an ecosystem that has been degraded, damaged, or destroyed and is critical for habitats where natural recovery is hindered. Uncertainties about restoration cost and feasibility can impede decisions on whether, what, how, where, and how much to restore. Here, we perform a synthesis of 235 studies with 954 observations from restoration or rehabilitation projects of coral reefs, seagrass, mangroves, saltmarshes, and oyster reefs worldwide, and evaluate cost, survival of restored organisms, project duration, area, and techniques applied. Findings showed that while the median and average reported costs for restoration of one hectare of marine coastal habitat were around US$80 000 (2010) and US$1 600 000 (2010), respectively, the real total costs (median) are likely to be two to four times higher. Coral reefs and seagrass were among the most expensive ecosystems to restore. Mangrove restoration projects were typically the largest and the least expensive per hectare. Most marine coastal restoration projects were conducted in Australia, Europe, and USA, while total restoration costs were significantly (up to 30 times) cheaper in countries with developing economies. Community‐ or volunteer‐based marine restoration projects usually have lower costs. Median survival of restored marine and coastal organisms, often assessed only within the first one to two years after restoration, was highest for saltmarshes (64.8%) and coral reefs (64.5%) and lowest for seagrass (38.0%). However, success rates reported in the scientific literature could be biased towards publishing successes rather than failures. The majority of restoration projects were short‐lived and seldom reported monitoring costs. Restoration success depended primarily on the ecosystem, site selection, and techniques applied rather than on money spent. We need enhanced investment in both improving restoration practices and large‐scale restoration.

Climate change is impacting coral reefs now. Recent pan-tropical bleaching events driven by unprecedented global heat waves have shifted the playing field for coral reef management and policy. While best-practice conventional management remains essential, it may no longer be enough to sustain coral reefs under continued climate change. Nor will climate change mitigation be sufficient on its own. Committed warming and projected reef decline means solutions must involve a portfolio of mitigation, best-practice conventional management and coordinated restoration and adaptation measures involving new and perhaps radical interventions, including local and regional cooling and shading, assisted coral evolution, assisted gene flow, and measures to support and enhance coral recruitment. We propose that proactive research and development to expand the reef management toolbox fast but safely, combined with expedient trialling of promising interventions is now urgently needed, whatever emissions trajectory the world follows. We discuss the challenges and opportunities of embracing new interventions in a race against time, including their risks and uncertainties. Ultimately, solutions to the climate challenge for coral reefs will require consideration of what society wants, what can be achieved technically and economically, and what opportunities we have for action in a rapidly closing window. Finding solutions that work for coral reefs and people will require exceptional levels of coordination of science, management and policy, and open engagement with society. It will also require compromise, because reefs will change under climate change despite our best interventions. We argue that being clear about society's priorities, and understanding both the opportunities and risks that come with an expanded toolset, can help us make the most of a challenging situation. We offer a conceptual model to help reef managers frame decision problems and objectives, and to guide effective strategy choices in the face of complexity and uncertainty.

The fisheries and biodiversity benefits of marine reserves are widely recognised but there is mounting interest in exploiting the importance of herbivorous fishes as a tool to help ecosystems recover from climate change impacts. This approach might be particularly suitable for coral reefs, which are acutely threatened by climate change, yet the trophic cascades generated by reserves are strong enough that they might theoretically enhance the rate of coral recovery after disturbance. However, evidence for reserves facilitating coral recovery has been lacking. Here we investigate whether reductions in macroalgal cover, caused by recovery of herbivorous parrotfishes within a reserve, have resulted in a faster rate of coral recovery than in areas subject to fishing. Surveys of ten sites inside and outside a Bahamian marine reserve over a 2.5-year period demonstrated that increases in coral cover, including adjustments for the initial size-distribution of corals, were significantly higher at reserve sites than those in non-reserve sites. Furthermore, macroalgal cover was significantly negatively correlated with the change in total coral cover over time. Recovery rates of individual species were generally consistent with small-scale manipulations on coral-macroalgal interactions, but also revealed differences that demonstrate the difficulties of translating experiments across spatial scales. Size-frequency data indicated that species which were particularly affected by high abundances of macroalgae outside the reserve had a population bottleneck restricting the supply of smaller corals to larger size classes. Importantly, because coral cover increased from a heavily degraded state, and recovery from such states has not previously been described, similar or better outcomes should be expected for many reefs in the region. Reducing herbivore exploitation as part of an ecosystem-based management strategy for coral reefs appears to be justified.

Tropical reefs are dynamic ecosystems that host diverse coral assemblages with different life-history strategies. Here, we quantified how juvenile (<50 mm) coral demographics influenced benthic coral structure in reef flat and reef slope habitats on the southern Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Permanent plots and settlement tiles were monitored every six months for three years in each habitat. These environments exhibited profound differences: the reef slope was characterised by 95% less macroalgal cover, and twice the amount of available settlement substrata and rates of coral settlement than the reef flat. Consequently, post-settlement coral survival in the reef slope was substantially higher than that of the reef flat, and resulted in a rapid increase in coral cover from 7 to 31% in 2.5 years. In contrast, coral cover on the reef flat remained low (~10%), whereas macroalgal cover increased from 23 to 45%. A positive stock-recruitment relationship was found in brooding corals in both habitats; however, brooding corals were not directly responsible for the observed changes in coral cover. Rather, the rapid increase on the reef slope resulted from high abundances of broadcast spawning Acropora recruits. Incorporating our results into transition matrix models demonstrated that most corals escape mortality once they exceed 50 mm, but for smaller corals mortality in brooders was double those of spawners (i.e. acroporids and massive corals). For corals on the reef flat, sensitivity analysis demonstrated that growth and mortality of larger juveniles (21-50 mm) highly influenced population dynamics; whereas the recruitment, growth and mortality of smaller corals (<20 mm) had the highest influence on reef slope population dynamics. Our results provide insight into the population dynamics and recovery trajectories in disparate reef habitats, and highlight the importance of acroporid recruitment in driving rapid increases in coral cover following large-scale perturbation in reef slope environments.

Structural complexity provided by the living coral reef framework is the basis of the rich and dynamic biodiversity in coral reefs. In many cases today, the reduction in habitat complexity, from live coral to dead coral and rubble, has altered the abundance and diversity of many reef species with impacts on community structure, food webs and ecosystem functioning. Yet, the complex microhabitat provided by rubble can too support a great density and diversity of reef organisms, often with explicit roles in ecosystem functioning. This literature review synthesises available knowledge on the biology and ecology of coral rubble. We highlight key methodologies used to sample rubble communities, and the biological and ecological consequences of ongoing habitat degradation from coral to rubble reefs under future scenarios. We conclude with a number of key research themes that may enhance our capacity to understand the current contribution of rubble communities to reef functioning and predict their ability to modulate future impacts as net framework erosion amplifies.

1. In response to multiple Stressors, coral reef health has declined in recent decades, with reefs exhibiting reduced living coral and structural complexity, and a concomitant rise in the dominance of algal resources. Reef degradation alters food availability and reduces the diversity and density of refuges for prey. These changes affect predator-prey interactions and can have cascading impacts on food webs and fisheries productivity. 2. We use a size-based ecosystem model of coral reefs that incorporates the influence of structural complexity, benthic primary production and detrital recycling to explore how predator-prey interactions and fisheries productivity respond to a gradient of reef degradation. 3. We show that fisheries productivity overall may be robust to initial stages of reef degradation because the benefits of increased resources outweigh the costs of moderate refuge decline. However, the assemblage composition and size structure of reef fish will differ on degraded reefs, with herbivores and invertivores contributing relatively more to productivity. 4. More significant losses of refuges associated with the erosion of structural complexity correspond to fisheries productivity losses of at least 35% compared to healthy reefs. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our model provides fisheries managers with quantitative predictions about how fisheries productivity may change in response to the ongoing degradation of coral reefs. We predict an initial increase in productivity at intermediate reef degradation, followed by a drastic decline when structural complexity is lost. We also capture subtle changes to potential catch composition and fish size, including increases in smaller herbivorous and invertivorous fish from degraded reefs, which will undoubtedly impact fisheries value. On the one hand, our results reassure for continued productivity in the short term, but on the other, we warn against complacency. Management must change to capture any potential benefits to fisheries, and long-term sustainability still depends on the maintenance of complex coral reef habitats.

Recurrent mass bleaching events threaten the future of coral reefs. To persist under climate change, corals will need to endure progressively more intense and frequent marine heatwaves, yet it remains unknown whether their thermal tolerance can keep pace with warming. Here, we reveal an emergent increase in the thermal tolerance of coral assemblages at a rate of 0.1 °C/decade for a remote Pacific coral reef system. This led to less severe bleaching impacts than would have been predicted otherwise, indicating adaptation, acclimatisation or shifts in community structure. Using future climate projections, we show that if thermal tolerance continues to rise over the coming century at the most-likely historic rate, substantial reductions in bleaching trajectories are possible. High-frequency bleaching can be fully mitigated at some reefs under low-to-middle emissions scenarios, yet can only be delayed under high emissions scenarios. Collectively, our results indicate a potential ecological resilience to climate change, but still highlight the need for reducing carbon emissions in line with Paris Agreement commitments to preserve coral reefs. Marine heatwaves and mass bleaching mortality events threaten the persistence of coral communities on tropical reefs. This study demonstrates that the thermal tolerance of coral communities in Palau has likely increased since the late 1980s. Such ecological resilience could reduce future bleaching impacts if global carbon emissions are cut down.

Australia's iconic Great Barrier Reef (GBR) continues to suffer from repeated impacts of cyclones, coral bleaching, and outbreaks of the coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS), losing much of its coral cover in the process. This raises the question of the ecosystem's systemic resilience and its ability to rebound after large-scale population loss. Here, we reveal that around 100 reefs of the GBR, or around 3%, have the ideal properties to facilitate recovery of disturbed areas, thereby imparting a level of systemic resilience and aiding its continued recovery. These reefs (1) are highly connected by ocean currents to the wider reef network, (2) have a relatively low risk of exposure to disturbances so that they are likely to provide replenishment when other reefs are depleted, and (3) have an ability to promote recovery of desirable species but are unlikely to either experience or spread COTS outbreaks. The great replenishment potential of these 'robust source reefs', which may supply 47% of the ecosystem in a single dispersal event, emerges from the interaction between oceanographic conditions and geographic location, a process that is likely to be repeated in other reef systems. Such natural resilience of reef systems will become increasingly important as the frequency of disturbances accelerates under climate change.

Drivers of recruitment in sessile marine organisms are often poorly understood, due to the rapidly changing requirements experienced during early ontogeny. The complex suite of physical, biological, and ecological interactions beginning at larval settlement involves a series of trade-offs that influence recruitment success. For example, while cryptic settlement within complex microhabitats is a commonly observed phenomenon in sessile marine organisms, it is unclear whether trade-offs between competition in cryptic refuges and predation on exposed surfaces leads to higher recruitment. To explore the trade-offs during the early ontogeny of scleractinian corals, we combined field observations with laboratory and field experiments to develop a mechanistic understanding of coral recruitment success. Multiple experiments conducted over 15 months in Palau (Micronesia) allowed a mechanistic approach to study the individual factors involved in recruitment: settlement behavior, growth, competition, and predation, as functions of microhabitat and ontogeny. We finally developed and tested a predictive recruitment model with the broader aim of testing whether our empirical insights explained patterns of coral recruitment and quantifying the relative importance of each trade-off. Coral settlement was higher in crevices than exposed microhabitats, but post-settlement bottlenecks differed markedly in the presence (uncaged) and absence (caged) of predators. Incidental predation by herbivores on exposed surfaces at early post-settlement (<3 mm) stages and targeted predation by corallivores at late post-settlement (3–10 mm) stages exceeded competition in crevices as major drivers of mortality. In contrast, when fish were excluded, competition with macroalgae and heterotrophic invertebrates intensified mortality, particularly in crevices. As a result, post-settlement trade-offs were reversed, and recruitment was more than twofold higher on exposed surfaces than crevices. Once post-settlement bottlenecks were overcome, survival was higher on exposed surfaces regardless of fish exclusion. However, maximum recruitment occurred in crevices of uncaged treatments, being ninefold higher than caged treatments. Overall, we characterize recruitment success throughout the earliest life-history stages of corals and uncover some intriguing trade-offs between growth, competition and predation, highlighting how these change and even reverse during ontogeny and under alternate disturbance regimes.