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Background Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a leading cause of death in the USA. We evaluated the incidence and predictors of AAA in a prospectively followed cohort. Methods We calculated age-adjusted AAA incidence rates (IR) among 18 782 participants aged ≥65 years in the Southern Community Cohort Study who received Medicare coverage from 1999–2012, and assessed predictors of AAA using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, overall and stratified by sex, adjusting for demographic, lifestyle, socioeconomic, medical and other factors. HRs and 95% CIs were calculated for AAA in relation to factors ascertained at enrolment. Results Over a median follow-up of 4.94 years, 281 cases were identified. Annual IR was 153/100 000, 401, 354 and 174 among blacks, whites, men and women, respectively. AAA risk was lower among women (HR 0.48, 95% CI 0.36 to 0.65) and blacks (HR 0.51, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.69). Smoking was the strongest risk factor (former: HR 1.91, 95% CI 1.27 to 2.87; current: HR 5.55, 95% CI 3.67 to 8.40), and pronounced in women (former: HR 3.4, 95% CI 1.83 to 6.31; current: HR 9.17, 95% CI 4.95 to 17). A history of hypertension (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.04 to 2.01) and myocardial infarction or coronary artery bypass surgery (HR 1.9, 95% CI 1.37 to 2.63) was negatively associated, whereas a body mass index ≥25 kg/m2 (HR 0.72; 95% CI 0.53 to 0.98) was protective. College education (HR 0.6, 95% CI 0.37 to 0.97) and black race (HR 0.44, 95% CI 0.28 to 0.67) were protective among men. Conclusions Smoking is a major risk factor for incident AAA, with a strong and similar association between men and women. Further studies are needed to evaluate benefits of ultrasound screening for AAA among women smokers.

We evaluated whether black race is associated with higher incidence of End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) among a cohort of blacks and whites of similar, generally low socioeconomic status, and whether risk factor patterns differ among blacks and whites and explain the poorly understood racial disparity in ESRD. Incident diagnoses of ESRD among 79,943 black and white participants in the Southern Community Cohort Study (SCCS) were ascertained by linkage with the United States Renal Data System (USRDS) from 2002 through 2009. Person-years of follow up were calculated from date of entry into the SCCS until date of ESRD diagnosis, date of death, or September 1, 2009, whichever occurred first. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for incident ESRD among black and white participants in relation to baseline characteristics. After 329,003 person-years of follow-up, 687 incident cases of ESRD were identified in the cohort. The age-adjusted ESRD incidence rate was 273 (per 100,000) among blacks, 3.5-fold higher than the rate of 78 among whites. Risk factors for ESRD included male sex (HR = 1.6; 95% CI 1.4-1.9), low income (HR = 1.5; 95% CI 1.2-1.8 for income below vs. above $15,000), smoking (HR = 1.2; 95% CI 1.02-1.4) and histories of diabetes (HRs increasing to 9.4 (95% CI 7.4-11.9) among those with ≥20 years diabetes duration) and hypertension (HR = 2.9; 95% CI 2.3-3.7). Patterns and magnitudes of association were virtually identical among blacks and whites. After adjustment for these risk factors, blacks continued to have a higher risk for ESRD (HR = 2.4; 95% CI = 1.9-3.0) relative to whites. The black-white disparity in risk of ESRD was attenuated but not eliminated after control for known risk factors in a closely socioeconomically matched cohort. Further research characterizing biomedical factors, including CKD progression, in ESRD occurrence in these two racial groups is needed.

Despite a greater burden of traditional risk factors, atrial fibrillation (AF) is less common among blacks than whites for reasons that are unclear. The aim of this study was to examine race- and gender-specific influences of demographic, lifestyle, anthropometric, and medical factors on AF in a large cohort of blacks and whites. Among white and black participants in the Southern Community Cohort Study (SCCS) aged ≥65 years receiving Medicare coverage from 1999 to 2008 (n = 8,836), diagnoses of AF (International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification code 427.3) were ascertained. Multivariate logistic regression was used to compute AF odds ratios associated with participant characteristics, including histories of hypertension, diabetes, stroke, and myocardial infarction or coronary artery bypass graft surgery, ascertained at cohort entry. Over an average of 5.7 years of Medicare coverage, AF was diagnosed in 1,062 participants. AF prevalence was significantly lower among blacks (11%) than whites (15%) (p <0.0001). Odds ratios for AF increased with age and were higher among men, the tall and obese, and patients with each of the co-morbid conditions, but the AF deficit among blacks compared to whites persisted after adjustment for these factors (odds ratio 0.64, 95% confidence interval 0.55 to 0.73). The patterns of AF risk were similar for blacks and whites, although associations with hypertension, diabetes, and stroke were somewhat stronger among blacks. In conclusion, these findings confirm the lower prevalence of AF among blacks than whites and suggest that traditional risk factors for AF apply similarly to the 2 groups and thus do not appear to explain the AF paradox in blacks.

Polonium-210 is a naturally occurring radioactive element that decays by emitting an alpha particle. It is in the air we breathe and also a component of tobacco smoke. Polonium-210 is used as an anti-static device in printing presses and gained widespread notoriety in 2006 after the poisoning and subsequent death of a Russian citizen in London. More is known about the lethal effects of polonium-210 at high doses than about late effects from low doses. Cancer mortality was examined among 7,270 workers at the Mound nuclear facility near Dayton, OH where polonium-210 was used (1944–1972) in combination with beryllium as a source of neutrons for triggering nuclear weapons. Other exposures included external gamma radiation and to a lesser extent plutonium-238, tritium and neutrons. Vital status and cause of death was determined through 2009. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were computed for comparisons with the general population. Lifetime occupational doses from all places of employment were sought and incorporated into the analysis. Over 200,000 urine samples were analyzed to estimate radiation doses to body organs from polonium and other internally deposited radionuclides. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate dose-response relationships for specific organs and tissues. Vital status was determined for 98.7% of the workers of which 3,681 had died compared with 4,073.9 expected (SMR 0.90; 95% CI 0.88–0.93). The mean dose from external radiation was 26.1 mSv (maximum 939.1 mSv) and the mean lung dose from external and internal radiation combined was 100.1 mSv (maximum 17.5 Sv). Among the 4,977 radiation workers, all cancers taken together (SMR 0.86; 95% CI 0.79–0.93), lung cancer (SMR 0.85; 95% CI 0.74–0.98), and other types of cancer were not significantly elevated. Cox regression analysis revealed a significant positive dose-response trend for esophageal cancer [relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval at 100 mSv of 1.54 (1.15–2.07)] and a negative dose-response trend for liver cancer [RR (95% CI) at 100 mSv of 0.55 (0.23–1.32)]. For lung cancer the RR at 100 mSv was 1.00 (95% CI 0.97–1.04) and for all leukemias other than chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) it was 1.04 (95% CI 0.63–1.71). There was no evidence that heart disease was associated with exposures [RR at 100 mSv of 1.06 (0.95–1.18)]. Assuming a relative biological effectiveness factor of either 10 or 20 for polonium and plutonium alpha particle emissions had little effect on the dose-response analyses. Polonium was the largest contributor to lung dose, and a relative risk of 1.04 for lung cancer at 100 mSv could be excluded with 95% confidence. A dose related increase in cancer of the esophagus was consistent with a radiation etiology but based on small numbers. A dose-related decrease in liver cancer suggests the presence of other modifying factors of risk and adds caution to interpretations. The absence of a detectable increase in total cancer deaths and lung cancer in particular associated with occupational exposures to polonium (mean lung dose 159.8 mSv), and to plutonium to a lesser extent (mean lung dose 13.7 mSv), is noteworthy but based on small numbers. Larger combined studies of U.S. workers are needed to clarify radiation risks following prolonged exposures and radionuclide intakes.

Updated analyses of mortality data are presented on 46,970 workers employed 1948–1999 at Rocketdyne (Atomics International). Overall, 5,801 workers were involved in radiation activities, including 2,232 who were monitored for intakes of radionuclides, and 41,169 workers were engaged in rocket testing or other non-radiation activities. The worker population is unique in that lifetime occupational doses from all places of employment were sought, updated and incorporated into the analyses. Further, radiation doses from intakes of 14 different radionuclides were calculated for 16 organs or tissues using biokinetic models of the International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP). Because only negligible exposures were received by the 247 workers monitored for radiation activities after 1999, the mean dose from external radiation remained essentially the same at 13.5 mSv (maximum 1 Sv) as reported previously, as did the mean lung dose from external and internal radiation combined at 19.0 mSv (maximum 3.6 Sv). An additional 9 years of follow-up, from December 31,1999 through 2008, increased the person-years of observation for the radiation workers by 21.7% to 196,674 (mean 33.9 years) and the number of cancer deaths by 50% to 684. Analyses included external comparisons with the general population and the computation of standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and internal comparisons using proportional hazards models and the computation of relative risks (RRs). A low SMR for all causes of death (SMR 0.82; 95% CI 0.78–0.85) continued to indicate that the Rocketdyne radiation workers were healthier than the general population and were less likely to die. The SMRs for all cancers taken together (SMR 0.88; 95% CI 0.81–0.95), lung cancer (SMR 0.87; 95% CI 0.76–1.00) and leukemia other than chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) (SMR 1.04; 95% 0.67–1.53) were not significantly elevated. Cox regression analyses revealed no significant dose–response trends for any cancer. For all cancers excluding leukemia, the RR at 100 mSv was estimated as 0.98 (95% CI 0.82–1.17), and for all leukemia other than CLL it was 1.06 (95% CI 0.50–2.23). Uranium was the primary radionuclide contributing to internal exposures, but no significant increases in lung and kidney disease were seen. The extended follow-up reinforces the findings in the previous study in failing to observe a detectable increase in cancer deaths associated with radiation, but strong conclusions still cannot be drawn because of small numbers and relatively low career doses. Larger combined studies of early workers in the United States using similar methodologies are warranted to refine and clarify radiation risks after protracted exposures.

Background Low individual-level socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with higher prevalence of cigarette smoking. Recent work has examined whether neighborhood-level SES may affect smoking behavior independently from individual-level measures. However, few comparisons of neighborhood-level effects on smoking by race and gender are available. Methods Cross-sectional data from adults age 40-79 enrolled in the Southern Community Cohort Study from 2002-2009 (19, 561 black males; 27, 412 black females; 6, 231 white males; 11, 756 white females) were used in Robust Poisson regression models to estimate prevalence ratios (PRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for current smoking in relation to individual-level SES characteristics obtained via interview and neighborhood-level SES characteristics represented by demographic measures from US Census block groups matched to participant home addresses. Results Several neighborhood-level SES characteristics were modestly associated with increased smoking after adjustment for individual-level factors including lower percentage of adults with a college education and lower percentage of owner-occupied households among blacks but not whites; lower percentage of households with interest, dividends, or net rental income among white males; and lower percentage of employed adults among black females. Conclusions Lower neighborhood-level SES is associated with increased smoking suggesting that cessation programs may benefit from targeting higher-risk neighborhoods as well as individuals.

In a previous cohort study of workers engaged in uranium milling and mining activities near Grants, Cibola County, New Mexico, we found lung cancer mortality to be significantly increased among underground miners. Uranium mining took place from early in the 1950s to 1990, and the Grants Uranium Mill operated from 1958–1990. The present study evaluates cancer mortality during 1950–2004 and cancer incidence during 1982–2004 among county residents. Standardized mortality (SMR) and incidence (SIR) ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were computed, with observed numbers of cancer deaths and cases compared to expected values based on New Mexico cancer rates. The total numbers of cancer deaths and incident cancers were close to that expected (SMR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01–1.07; SIR 0.97, 95% CI 0.92–1.02). Lung cancer mortality and incidence were significantly increased among men (SMR 1.11, 95% CI 1.02–1.21; SIR 1.40, 95% CI 1.18–1.64) but not women (SMR 0.97, 95% CI 0.85–1.10; SIR 1.01, 95% CI 0.78–1.29). Similarly, among the population of the three census tracts near the Grants Uranium Mill, lung cancer mortality was significantly elevated among men (SMR 1.57; 95% CI 1.21–1.99) but not women (SMR 1.12; 95% CI 0.75–1.61). Except for an elevation in mortality for stomach cancer among women (SMR 1.30; 95% CI 1.03–1.63), which declined over the 55-year observation period, no significant increases in SMRs or SIRs for 22 other caners were found. Although etiological inferences cannot be drawn from these ecological data, the excesses of lung cancer among men seem likely to be due to previously reported risks among underground miners from exposure to radon gas and its decay products. Smoking, socioeconomic factors or ethnicity may also have contributed to the lung cancer excesses observed in our study. The stomach cancer increase was highest before the uranium mill began operation and then decreased to normal levels. With the exception of male lung cancer, this study provides no clear or consistent evidence that the operation of uranium mills and mines adversely affected cancer incidence or mortality of county residents.

ObjectiveThis follow-up study of uranium processing workers at the Fernald Feed Materials Production Center examines the relationship between radiation exposure and cancer and non-cancer mortality among 6403 workers employed for at least 30 days between 1951 and 1985.MethodsWe estimated cumulative, individual, annualised doses to 15 organs/tissues from external, internal and radon exposures. Vital status and cause of death were ascertained in 2017. The analysis employed standardised mortality ratios, Cox proportional hazards and Poisson regression models. Competing risk analysis was conducted for cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality risk given several assumptions about risk independent of competing outcomes. Emphysema was examined to assess the potential for confounding by smoking.ResultsVital status was confirmed for 98.1% of workers, with 65.1% deceased. All-cause mortality was less than expected in salaried but not hourly workers when compared with the US population. A statistically significant dose response was observed between external (but not total or internal) lung dose and lung cancer mortality (HR at 100 mGy adjusted for internal dose=1.45; 95% CI=1.05 to 2.01). Significantly increased HRs at 100 mGy dose to heart were observed for CVD (1.27; 95% CI=1.07 to 1.50) and ischaemic heart disease (1.30; 95% CI=1.07 to 1.58). CVD risk remained elevated regardless of competing risk assumptions. Both external and internal radiation were associated with emphysema.ConclusionsLung cancer was associated with external dose, though positive dose responses for emphysema imply residual confounding by smoking. Novel use of competing risk analysis for CVD demonstrates leveraging retrospective data for future risk prediction.

Boice, J. D., Jr., Mumma, M. T. and Blot, W. J. Cancer and Noncancer Mortality in Populations Living Near Uranium and Vanadium Mining and Milling Operations in Montrose County, Colorado, 1950–2000. Radiat. Res. 167, 711–726 (2007). Mining and milling of uranium in Montrose County on the Western Slope of Colorado began in the early 1900s and continued until the early 1980s. To evaluate the possible impact of these activities on the health of communities living on the Colorado Plateau, mortality rates between 1950 and 2000 among Montrose County residents were compared to rates among residents in five similar counties in Colorado. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were computed as the ratio of observed numbers of deaths in Montrose County to the expected numbers of deaths based on mortality rates in the general populations of Colorado and the United States. Relative risks (RRs) were computed as the ratio of the SMRs for Montrose County to the SMRs for the five comparison counties. Between 1950 and 2000, a total of 1,877 cancer deaths occurred in the population residing in Montrose County, compared with 1,903 expected based on general population rates for Colorado (SMRCO 0.99). There were 11,837 cancer deaths in the five comparison counties during the same 51-year period compared with 12,135 expected (SMRCO 0.98). There was no difference between the total cancer mortality rates in Montrose County and those in the comparison counties (RR = 1.01; 95% CI 0.96–1.06). Except for lung cancer among males (RR = 1.19; 95% CI 1.06–1.33), no statistically significant excesses were seen for any causes of death of a priori interest: cancers of the breast, kidney, liver, bone, or childhood cancer, leukemia, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, renal disease or nonmalignant respiratory disease. Lung cancer among females was decreased (RR = 0.83; 95% CI 0.67–1.02). The absence of elevated mortality rates of cancer in Montrose County over a period of 51 years suggests that the historical milling and mining operations did not adversely affect the health of Montrose County residents. Although descriptive correlation analyses such as this preclude definitive causal inferences, the increased lung cancer mortality seen among males but not females is most likely due to prior occupational exposure to radon and cigarette smoking among underground miners residing in Montrose County, consistent with previous cohort studies of Colorado miners and of residents of the town of Uravan in Montrose County.

Boice, Jr., J. D., Cohen, S. S., Mumma, M. T., Ellis, E. D., Eckerman, K. F., Leggett, R. W., Boecker, B. B., Brill, A. B. and Henderson, B. E. Mortality among Radiation Workers at Rocketdyne (Atomics International), 1948–1999. Radiat. Res. 166, 98–115 (2006). A retrospective cohort mortality study was conducted of workers engaged in nuclear technology development and employed for at least 6 months at Rocketdyne (Atomics International) facilities in California, 1948–1999. Lifetime occupational doses were derived from company records and linkages with national dosimetry data sets. International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP) biokinetic models were used to estimate radiation doses to 16 organs or tissues after the intake of radionuclides. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) compared the observed numbers of deaths with those expected in the general population of California. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate dose–response trends over categories of cumulative radiation dose, combining external and internal organ-specific doses. There were 5,801 radiation workers, including 2,232 monitored for radionuclide intakes. The mean dose from external radiation was 13.5 mSv (maximum 1 Sv); the mean lung dose from external and internal radiation combined was 19.0 mSv (maximum 3.6 Sv). Vital status was determined for 97.6% of the workers of whom 25.3% (n = 1,468) had died. The average period of observation was 27.9 years. All cancers taken together (SMR 0.93; 95% CI 0.84–1.02) and all leukemia excluding chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) (SMR 1.21; 95% CI 0.69–1.97) were not significantly elevated. No SMR was significantly increased for any cancer or for any other cause of death. The Cox regression analyses revealed no significant dose–response trends for any cancer. For all cancers excluding leukemia, the RR at 100 mSv was estimated as 1.00 (95% CI 0.81–1.24), and for all leukemia excluding CLL it was 1.34 (95% CI 0.73–2.45). The nonsignificant increase in leukemia (excluding CLL) was in accord with expectation from other radiation studies, but a similar nonsignificant increase in CLL (a malignancy not found to be associated with radiation) tempers a causal interpretation. Radiation exposure has not caused a detectable increase in cancer deaths in this population, but results are limited by small numbers and relatively low career doses.