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Cash-transfer programmes can improve the wellbeing of vulnerable children, but few studies have rigorously assessed their effectiveness in sub-Saharan Africa. We investigated the effects of unconditional cash transfers (UCTs) and conditional cash transfers (CCTs) on birth registration, vaccination uptake, and school attendance in children in Zimbabwe. We did a matched, cluster-randomised controlled trial in ten sites in Manicaland, Zimbabwe. We divided each study site into three clusters. After a baseline survey between July, and September, 2009, clusters in each site were randomly assigned to UCT, CCT, or control, by drawing of lots from a hat. Eligible households contained children younger than 18 years and satisfied at least one other criteria: head of household was younger than 18 years; household cared for at least one orphan younger than 18 years, a disabled person, or an individual who was chronically ill; or household was in poorest wealth quintile. Between January, 2010, and January, 2011, households in UCT clusters collected payments every 2 months. Households in CCT clusters could receive the same amount but were monitored for compliance with several conditions related to child wellbeing. Eligible households in all clusters, including control clusters, had access to parenting skills classes and received maize seed and fertiliser in December, 2009, and August, 2010. Households and individuals delivering the intervention were not masked, but data analysts were. The primary endpoints were proportion of children younger than 5 years with a birth certificate, proportion younger than 5 years with up-to-date vaccinations, and proportion aged 6–12 years attending school at least 80% of the time. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00966849. 1199 eligible households were allocated to the control group, 1525 to the UCT group, and 1319 to the CCT group. Compared with control clusters, the proportion of children aged 0–4 years with birth certificates had increased by 1·5% (95% CI −7·1 to 10·1) in the UCT group and by 16·4% (7·8–25·0) in the CCT group by the end of the intervention period. The proportions of children aged 0–4 years with complete vaccination records was 3·1% (−3·8 to 9·9) greater in the UCT group and 1·8% (−5·0 to 8·7) greater in the CCT group than in the control group. The proportions of children aged 6–12 years who attended school at least 80% of the time was 7·2% (0·8–13·7) higher in the UCT group and 7·6% (1·2–14·1) in the CCT group than in the control group. Our results support strategies to integrate cash transfers into social welfare programming in sub-Saharan Africa, but further evidence is needed for the comparative effectiveness of UCT and CCT programmes in this region. Wellcome Trust, the World Bank through the Partnership for Child Development, and the Programme of Support for the Zimbabwe National Action Plan for Orphans and Vulnerable Children.

Background Benefits of cash transfers (CTs) for HIV prevention have been demonstrated largely in purposively designed trials, commonly focusing on young women. It is less clear if CT interventions not designed for HIV prevention can have HIV-specific effects, including adverse effects. The cluster-randomised Manicaland Cash Transfer Trial (2010–11) evaluated effects of CTs on children’s (2–17 years) development in eastern Zimbabwe. We evaluated whether this CT intervention with no HIV-specific objectives had unintended HIV prevention spillover effects (externalities). Methods Data on 2909 individuals (15–54 years) living in trial households were taken from a general-population survey, conducted simultaneously in the same communities as the Manicaland Trial. Average treatment effects (ATEs) of CTs on sexual behaviour (any recent sex, condom use, multiple partners) and secondary outcomes (mental distress, school enrolment, and alcohol/cigarette/drug consumption) were estimated using mixed-effects logistic regressions (random effects for study site and intervention cluster), by sex and age group (15–29; 30–54 years). Outcomes were also evaluated with a larger synthetic comparison group created through propensity score matching. Results CTs did not affect sexual debut but reduced having any recent sex (past 30 days) among young males (ATE: − 11.7 percentage points [PP] [95% confidence interval: -26.0PP, 2.61PP]) and females (− 5.68PP [− 15.7PP, 4.34PP]), with similar but less uncertain estimates when compared against the synthetic comparison group (males: -9.68PP [− 13.1PP, − 6.30PP]; females: -8.77PP [− 16.3PP, − 1.23PP]). There were no effects among older individuals. Young (but not older) males receiving CTs reported increased multiple partnerships (8.49PP [− 5.40PP, 22.4PP]; synthetic comparison: 10.3PP (1.27PP, 19.2PP). No impact on alcohol, cigarette, or drug consumption was found. There are indications that CTs reduced psychological distress among young people, although impacts were small. CTs increased school enrolment in males (11.5PP [3.05PP, 19.9PP]). Analyses with the synthetic comparison group (but not the original control group) further indicated increased school enrolment among females (5.50PP [1.62PP, 9.37PP]) and condom use among younger and older women receiving CTs (9.38PP [5.90PP, 12.9PP]; 5.95PP [1.46PP, 10.4PP]). Conclusions Non-HIV-prevention CT interventions can have HIV prevention outcomes, including reduced sexual activity among young people and increased multiple partnerships among young men. No effects on sexual debut or alcohol, cigarette, or drug consumption were observed. A broad approach is necessary to evaluate CT interventions to capture unintended outcomes, particularly in economic evaluations. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov , NCT00966849 . Registered August 27, 2009.

In the context of a community-randomized trial of antiretrovirals for HIV prevention and treatment among sex workers in Zimbabwe (the SAPPH-IRe trial), we will measure the proportion of women with HIV viral load (VL) above 1000 copies/mL (\"VL>1000\") as our primary endpoint. We sought to characterize VL assay performance by comparing results from finger prick dried blood spots (DBS) collected in the field with plasma samples, to determine whether finger prick DBS is an acceptable sample for VL quantification in the setting. We collected whole blood from a finger prick onto filter paper and plasma samples using venipuncture from women in two communities. VL quantification was run on samples in parallel using NucliSENS EasyQ HIV-1 v2.0. Our trial outcome is the proportion of women with VL>1000, consistent with WHO guidelines relating to regimen switching. We therefore focused on this cut-off level for assessing sensitivity and specificity. Results were log transformed and the mean difference and standard deviation calculated, and correlation between VL quantification across sample types was evaluated. A total of 149 HIV-positive women provided DBS and plasma samples; 56 (63%) reported being on antiretroviral therapy. VL ranged from undetectable-6.08 log10 using DBS and undetectable-6.40 log10 using plasma. The mean difference in VL (plasma-DBS) was 0.077 log10 (95%CI = 0.025-0.18 log10; standard deviation = 0.63 log10,). 78 (52%) DBS and 87 (58%) plasma samples had a VL>1000. Based on plasma 'gold-standard', DBS sensitivity for detection of VL>1000 was 87.4%, and specificity was 96.8%. There was generally good agreement between DBS and plasma VL for detection of VL>1000. Overall, finger prick DBS appeared to be an acceptable sample for classifying VL as above or below 1000 copies/mL using the NucliSENS assay.

In an HIV/AIDS epidemic driven primarily by heterosexual transmission, it is important to have an understanding of the human sexual behaviour patterns that influence transmission. We analysed the distribution and predictors of within-partnership sexual behaviour and condom use in rural Zimbabwe and generated parameters for use in future modelling analyses. A population-based cohort was recruited from a household census in 12 communities. A baseline survey was carried out in 1998-2000 with follow-up surveys after 3 and 5 years. Statistical distributions were fitted to reported within-partnership numbers of total, unprotected and protected sex acts in the past two weeks. Multilevel linear and logistic regression models were constructed to assess predictors of the frequency of unprotected sex and consistent condom use. A normal distribution of ln(sex acts+1) provided the best fit for total and unprotected sex acts for men and women. A negative binomial distribution applied to the untransformed data provided the best fit for protected sex acts. Condom use within partnerships was predominantly bimodal with at least 88% reporting zero or 100% use. Both men and women reported fewer unprotected sex acts with non-regular compared to regular partners (men: 0.26 fewer every two weeks (95% confidence interval 0.18-0.34); women: 0.16 (0.07-0.23)). Never and previously married individuals reported fewer unprotected sex acts than currently married individuals (never married men: 0.64 (0.60-0.67); previously married men: 0.59 (0.50-0.67); never married women: 0.51 (0.45-0.57); previously married women: 0.42 (0.37-0.47)). These variables were also associated with more consistent condom use. We generated parameters that will be useful for defining transmission models of HIV and other STIs, which rely on a valid representation of the underlying sexual network that determines spread of an infection. This will enable a better understanding of the spread of HIV and other STDs in this rural sub-Saharan population.

Background Unconditional and conditional cash transfer programmes (UCT and CCT) show potential to improve the well-being of orphans and other children made vulnerable by HIV/AIDS (OVC). We address the gap in current understanding about the extent to which household-based cash transfers differentially impact individual children’s outcomes, according to risk or protective factors such as orphan status and household assets. Methods Data were obtained from a cluster-randomised controlled trial in eastern Zimbabwe, with random assignment to three study arms – UCT, CCT or control. The sample included 5,331 children ages 6-17 from 1,697 households. Generalized linear mixed models were specified to predict OVC health vulnerability (child chronic illness and disability) and social protection (birth registration and 90% school attendance). Models included child-level risk factors (age, orphan status); household risk factors (adults with chronic illnesses and disabilities, greater household size); and household protective factors (including asset-holding). Interactions were systematically tested. Results Orphan status was associated with decreased likelihood for birth registration, and paternal orphans and children for whom both parents’ survival status was unknown were less likely to attend school. In the UCT arm, paternal orphans fared better in likelihood of birth registration compared with non-paternal orphans. Effects of study arms on outcomes were not moderated by any other risk or protective factors. High household asset-holding was associated with decreased likelihood of child’s chronic illness and increased birth registration and school attendance, but household assets did not moderate the effects of cash transfers on risk or protective factors. Conclusion Orphaned children are at higher risk for poor social protection outcomes even when cared for in family-based settings. UCT and CCT each produced direct effects on children’s social protection which are not moderated by other child- and household-level risk factors, but orphans are less likely to attend school or obtain birth registration. The effects of UCT and CCT are not moderated by asset-holding, but greater household assets predict greater social protection outcomes. Intervention efforts need to focus on ameliorating the additional risk burden carried by orphaned children. These efforts might include caregiver education, and additional incentives based on efforts made specifically for orphaned children.

Early mathematical models varied in their predictions of the impact of HIV/AIDS on population growth from minimal impact to reductions in growth, in pessimistic scenarios, from positive to negative values over a period of 25 years. Models predicting negative rates of natural increase forecast little effect on the dependency ratio. Twenty years later, HIV prevalence in small towns, estates, and rural villages in eastern Zimbabwe, has peaked within the intermediate range predicted by the early models, but the demographic impact has been more acute than was predicted. Despite concurrent declines in fertility, fueled in part by HIV infections (total fertility is now 8% lower than expected without an epidemic), and a doubling of the crude death rate because of HIV/AIDS, the rate of natural population increase between 1998 and 2005 remained positive in each socioeconomic stratum. In the worst-affected areas (towns with HIV prevalence of 33%), HIV/AIDS reduced growth by two-thirds from 2.9% to 1.0%. The dependency ratio fell from 1.21 at the onset of the HIV epidemic to 0.78, the impact of HIV-associated adult mortality being outweighed by fertility decline. With the benefit of hindsight, the more pessimistic early models overestimated the demographic impact of HIV epidemics by overextrapolating initial HIV growth rates or not allowing for heterogeneity in key parameters such as transmissibility and sexual risk behavior. Data collected since the late 1980s show that there was a mismatch between the observed growth in the HIV epidemic and assumptions made about viral transmission.

To compare alternative methods to vital registration systems for estimating adult mortality, and describe patterns of mortality in Manicaland, Zimbabwe, which has been severely affected by HIV. We compared estimates of adult mortality from (1) a single question on household mortality, (2) repeated household censuses, and (3) an adult cohort study with linked HIV testing from Manicaland, with a mathematical model fitted to local age-specific HIV prevalence (1998 -2000). The crude death rate from the single question (29 per 1000 person-years) was roughly consistent with that from the mathematical model (22 -25 per 1000 person-years), but much higher than that from the household censuses (12 per 1000 person-years). Adult mortality in the household censuses (males 0.65; females 0.51) was lower than in the cohort study (males 0.77; females 0.57), while mathematical models gave a much higher estimate, especially for females (males 0.80 -0.83; females 0.75 -0.80). The population attributable fraction of adult deaths due to HIV was 0.61 for men and 0.70 for women, with life expectancy estimated to be 34.3 years for males and 38.2 years for females. Each method for estimating adult mortality had limitations in terms of loss to follow-up (cohort study), under-ascertainment (household censuses), transparency of underlying processes (single question), and sensitivity to parameterization (mathematical model). However, these analyses make clear the advantages of longitudinal cohort data, which provide more complete ascertainment than household censuses, highlight possible inaccuracies in model assumptions, and allow direct quantification of the impact of HIV.

Background Cash transfer programmes are increasingly recognised as promising and scalable interventions that can promote the health and development of children. However, concerns have been raised about the potential for cash transfers to contribute to social division, jealousy and conflict at a community level. Against this background, and in our interest to promote community participation in cash transfer programmes, we examine local perceptions of a community-led cash transfer programme in Eastern Zimbabwe. Methods We collected and analysed data from 35 individual interviews and three focus group discussions, involving 24 key informants (community committee members and programme implementers), 24 cash transfer beneficiaries, of which four were youth, and 14 non-beneficiaries. Transcripts were subjected to thematic analysis and coding to generate concepts. Results Study participants described the programme as participatory, fair and transparent – reducing the likelihood of jealousy. The programme was perceived to have had a substantial impact on children’s health and education, primarily through aiding parents and guardians to better cater for their children’s needs. Moreover, participants alluded to the potential of the programme to facilitate more transformational change, for example by enabling families to invest money in assets and income generating activities and by promoting a community-wide sense of responsibility for the support of orphaned and vulnerable children. Conclusion Community participation, combined with the perceived impact of the cash transfer programme, led community members to speak enthusiastically about the programme. We conclude that community-led cash transfer programmes have the potential to open up for possibilities of participation and community agency that enable social acceptability and limit social divisiveness.

Social capital—especially through its \"network\" dimension (high levels of participation in local community groups)—is thought to be an important determinant of health in many contexts. We investigate its effect on HIV prevention, using prospective data from a general population cohort in eastern Zimbabwe spanning a period of extensive behavior change (1998—2003). Almost half of the initially uninfected women interviewed were members of at least one community group. In an analysis of 88 communities, individuals with higher levels of community group participation had lower incidence of new HIV infections and more of them had adopted safer behaviors, although these effects were largely accounted for by differences in socio-demographic composition. Individual women in community groups had lower HIV incidence and more extensive behavior change, even after controlling for confounding factors. Community group membership was not associated with lower HIV incidence in men, possibly reflecting a propensity among men to participate in groups that allow them to develop and demonstrate their masculine identities—often at the expense of their health. Support for women's community groups could be an effective HIV prevention strategy in countries with large-scale HIV epidemics.

Introduction Intensified poverty arising from economic decline and crisis may have contributed to reductions in HIV prevalence in Zimbabwe. Objectives To assess the impact of the economic decline on household wealth and prevalent HIV infection using data from a population‐based open cohort. Methods Household wealth was estimated using data from a prospective household census in Manicaland Province (1998 to 2011). Temporal trends in summed asset ownership indices for sellable, non‐sellable and all assets combined were compared for households in four socio‐economic strata (small towns, agricultural estates, roadside settlements and subsistence farming areas). Multivariate logistic random‐effects models were used to measure differences in individual‐level associations between prevalent HIV infection and place of residence, absolute wealth group and occupation. Results Household mean asset scores remained similar at around 0.37 (on a scale of 0 to 1) up to 2007 but decreased to below 0.35 thereafter. Sellable assets fell substantially from 2004 while non‐sellable assets continued increasing until 2008. Small‐town households had the highest wealth scores but the gap to other locations decreased over time, especially for sellable assets. Concurrently, adult HIV prevalence fell from 22.3 to 14.3%. HIV prevalence was highest in better‐off locations (small towns) but differed little by household wealth or occupation. Initially, HIV prevalence was elevated in women from poorer households and lower in men in professional occupations. However, most recently (2009 to 2011), men and women in the poorest households had lower HIV prevalence and men in professional occupations had similar prevalence to unemployed men. Conclusions The economic crisis drove more households into extreme poverty. However, HIV prevalence fell in all socio‐economic locations and sub‐groups, and there was limited evidence that increased poverty contributed to HIV prevalence decline.