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"Muttitt, Greg"
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Socio-political feasibility of coal power phase-out and its role in mitigation pathways
In IPCC pathways limiting warming to 1.5 °C, global coal power generation declines rapidly due to its emissions intensity and substitutability. However, we find that in countries heavily dependent on coal—China, India and South Africa—this translates to a national decline twice as rapid as that achieved historically for any power technology in any country, relative to system size. This raises questions about socio-political feasibility. Here we constrain an integrated assessment model to the Powering Past Coal Alliance’s differentiated phase-out timelines of 2030 in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development/European Union and 2050 elsewhere which, for large coal consumers, lies within the range of historical transitions. We find that limiting warming to 1.5 °C then requires CO2 emissions reductions in the global North to be 50% more rapid than if this socio-political reality is ignored. This additional mitigation is focused on Europe and the United States, in transport and industry and implies more rapid decline in global oil and gas production.While important, coal power phase-out in models may be faster than is socio-politically feasible in highly coal-dependent countries. This research shows that reaching the temperature target with these constraints requires faster decline in emissions from the global North and in global oil and gas production.
Journal Article
Existing fossil fuel extraction would warm the world beyond 1.5 °C
The Paris climate goals and the Glasgow Climate Pact require anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO
2
) emissions to decline to net zero by mid-century. This will require overcoming carbon lock-in throughout the energy system. Previous studies have focused on ‘committed emissions’ from capital investments in energy-consuming infrastructure, or potential (committed and uncommitted) emissions from fossil fuel reserves. Here we make the first bottom-up assessment of committed CO
2
emissions from fossil fuel-producing infrastructure, defined as existing and under-construction oil and gas fields and coal mines. We use a commercial model of the world’s 25 000 oil and gas fields and build a new dataset on coal mines in the nine largest coal-producing countries. Our central estimate of committed emissions is 936 Gt CO
2
, comprising 47% from coal, 35% from oil and 18% from gas. We find that staying within a 1.5 °C carbon budget (50% probability) implies leaving almost 40% of ‘developed reserves’ of fossil fuels unextracted. The finding that developed reserves substantially exceed the 1.5 °C carbon budget is robust to a Monte Carlo analysis of reserves data limitations, carbon budget uncertainties and oil prices. This study contributes to growing scholarship on the relevance of fossil fuel supply to climate mitigation. Going beyond recent warnings by the International Energy Agency, our results suggest that staying below 1.5 °C may require governments and companies not only to cease licensing and development of new fields and mines, but also to prematurely decommission a significant portion of those already developed.
Journal Article
وقود على النار : السياسة والنفط في احتلال العراق
كان انسحاب آخر ما تبقى من القوات الأمریكیة في العراق في أواخر عام 2011 قد ترك وراءه بلدا ممزقا مع الكثیر من الأسئلة التي لم یتم الإجابة عنھا، وبغرابة شدیدة فإن \"جورج بوش\" و\"دیك تشیني\" ما زالوا یشرحون في مذكراتھم أن الحرب كانت بسبب قضیة \"أسلحة الدمار الشامل\" والتي نعلم جمیعا أنھألم یتم العثور علىھا. إذن ھل كان ھنال تھجديد فعلي للأمن القومي للولایات المتحدة ؟ ولماذا استمر الاحتلال قرابة تسع سنوات ؟ ولماذا استمرت خسارة الآلاف من الأرواح في حین أن الأمریكیین والبریطانیین والعراقیین كانوا یریدون أن تنتھي ھذه الحرب على الرغم من فقدانھم أمل أن یستمع أحد إلى صوتھم ؟ وكالات الإعلام والصحافة تناولت مشكلة العراق بسلسلة من العناوین والتحلیلات الخاطئة مثل : الحكومة لم تصغ إلى التقاریر الاستخباراتیة، والمحافظون الجدد شنوا الحرب وتورطوا فیھا من دون أن یحضروا لھا جیدا ثم وجدوا أنفسھم في ورطة، وعدد القوات التي شنت الحرب كانت قلیلة جدا، وما إلى ذلك من تحلیلات وعناوین طویلة. لكن الأشیاء أخیرا بدأت تذھب بالاتجاه الصحیح حینما أعلن الجنرال \"دیفید بترایوس\" عن الدفع بقوات إضافیة لتذھب إلى العراق عام 2007.
Book
Whose carbon is burnable? Equity considerations in the allocation of a “right to extract”
Carbon emissions—and hence fossil fuel combustion—must decline rapidly if warming is to be held below 1.5 or 2 °C. Yet fossil fuels are so deeply entrenched in the broader economy that a rapid transition poses the challenge of significant transitional disruption. Fossil fuels must be phased out even as access to energy services for basic needs and for economic development expands, particularly in developing countries. Nations, communities, and workers that are economically dependent on fossil fuel extraction will need to find a new foundation for livelihoods and revenue. These challenges are surmountable. In principle, societies could undertake a decarbonization transition in which they anticipate the transitional disruption, and cooperate and contribute fairly to minimize and alleviate it. Indeed, if societies do not work to avoid that disruption, a decarbonization transition may not be possible at all. Too many people may conclude they will suffer undue hardship, and thus undermine the political consensus required to undertake an ambitious transition. The principles and framework laid out here are offered as a contribution to understanding the nature of the potential impacts of a transition, principles for equitably sharing the costs of avoiding them, and guidance for prioritizing which fossil resources can still be extracted.
Journal Article
How energy transition affects jobs
Concrete analysis of job impacts is needed to inform efforts for a just transition. Now, a study finds that decarbonizing US electricity generation will create jobs, but with uneven distribution among states, industrial sectors and skill needs.
Journal Article
Correction to: Whose carbon is burnable? Equity considerations in the allocation of a “right to extract”
The article Whose carbon is burnable? Equity considerations in the allocation of a “right to extract,” written by Sivan Kartha, Simon Caney, Navroz K. Dubash, and Greg Muttitt, was originally published electronically on the publisher’s internet portal (currently SpringerLink) on 24 May 2018.
Journal Article
PRODUCTION SHARING AGREEMENTS-MORTGAGING IRAQ'S OIL WEALTH
Muttitt discusses the implications of one key plank of Iraq's developing oil policy, which is the proposal that foreign companies should be given access to oil reserves through the mechanism of production sharing agreements. He notes that in such agreements, while the state theoretically has ultimate control over the oil, in practice, however, the actions of the state are severely constrained by the stipulations in the contract. Considering this, he opines that Iraq would be well advised to maintain flexibility in how it structures its oil industry and to avoid long-term, irreversible decisions.
Journal Article