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108 result(s) for "NIEUWBEERTA, PAUL"
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The Impact of Imprisonment on Marriage and Divorce: A Risk Set Matching Approach
Marriage has a prominent place in criminological theory and research as one institution that has the potential to genuinely foster desistance from a criminal career. Mass imprisonment policies in the United States and elsewhere, therefore, pose a potential threat of increased crime if they impede the ability of ex-prisoners to reintegrate into society by stigmatizing them and limiting their chances in the marriage market. We use a long-term study of a conviction cohort in The Netherlands to ascertain the effect that first-time imprisonment has on the likelihood of marriage and divorce. The results suggest that the effect of imprisonment on the likelihood of marriage (among unmarried offenders) is largely a selection artifact, although there is very weak evidence for a short-lived impact that does not persist past the first year post-release. This is interpreted as a residual incapacitation effect. On the other hand, the results strongly suggest that the experience of incarceration leads to a substantially higher divorce risk among offenders who are married when they enter prison.
Global Crime Patterns: An Analysis of Survey Data from 166 Countries Around the World, 2006–2019
Objectives This article explores the merits of commercially-based survey data on crime through cross-validation with established crime metrics. Methods Using unpublished data from 166 countries covering the period between 2006 and 2019, the article describes the geographical distribution across global regions and trends over time of three types of common crime, homicide, and organised crime. The article then explores possible determinants of the geographical distributions through regressing prevalence rates against indices of poverty, inequality, proportion of youth, presence of criminal opportunities (wealth and urbanisation), and governance/rule of law. Results The results show that African and Latin American countries suffer from the highest levels of various types of crime across the board, followed by countries in Asia. European, North American and Australian countries experience intermediate or relatively low levels of most types of crime. Levels of common crime have dropped or stabilized globally except in Africa where they went up. Homicides have fallen almost universally. Trends in organised crime are diverging. Conclusions Dimensions of governance emerged as powerful determinants of levels of all types of crime. Important determinants of common crime besides governance were poverty, inequality, and proportion of youth. To some extent changes in these same characteristics of countries were found to be correlated with changes in levels of crime over the past fifteen years. The article concludes with a discussion of the study’s limitations and suggestions for further research.
Verandering in de leeftijdscriminaliteitscurve ontrafeld: een multi-geboortecohortstudie naar strafrechtelijke veroordelingen in Nederland
In many Western countries, including the Netherlands, recorded crime has declined sharply over recent decades. International cohort studies show that this decline is linked to changes in the age-crime curve, with more recent birth cohorts less likely to offend, but equally active once involved in crime. For the Netherlands, however, little is known about how this curve has evolved between birth cohorts. This study follows fifteen complete birth cohorts (1989-2003) using administrative conviction data (Statistics Netherlands, 2001-2023). The results show that the curve remains recognizable, but that overall levels have declined substantially because fewer individuals are convicted in recent cohorts, whereas the frequency of convictions among those with at least one conviction remains stable.
Vrijheidsbeneming in Nederland sinds 1837
This article studies the development in the prison system over the period 1837-2016 in the Netherlands. It describes trends in three characteristics of the Dutch prison system: (a) the number of prisoners, (b) the number of cells, and (c) the inflow of persons from the free society. The findings are twofold. On the one hand – when examining absolute numbers – the article shows that three distinct periods can be distinguished: a period of 140 years with low stable numbers (1837-1975), four decades in which the numbers tripled (1975-2005), and a subsequent decade where the numbers halved (2005-2016). On the other hand – when examining relative numbers, i.e. per 100.000 inhabitants, and thus controlling for the growth in population – the article displays that developments in the prison system in the Netherlands between 1837-2016 can best be characterized by a long-term continuous decrease in detention.
HOW DO RESIDENTIAL BURGLARS SELECT TARGET AREAS? A New Approach to the Analysis of Criminal Location Choice
This paper introduces the discrete spatial choice approach to the study of criminal target choice. The approach is used to assess whether residential burglars are attracted to target areas that are affluent, accessible, and poorly guarded. In addition, the importance of these criteria is postulated to vary across burglars. The theory is tested using data on 548 residential burglaries, committed by 290 burglars from the city of The Hague, the Netherlands. The likelihood of a neighbourhood's being selected for burglary is heightened by its ethnic heterogeneity, its percentage of single-family dwellings, and its proximity to where the offender lives. The results and prospects of the discrete spatial choice approach for spatial target selection research are discussed.
Homicide–suicide and other violent deaths: An international comparison
Homicides followed by the suicide of the perpetrator constitute a serious form of interpersonal violence. Until now no study has directly compared homicide–suicides to other violent deaths from multiple countries, allowing for a better understanding of the nature of these violent acts. Using country-specific data, this study describes and compares the incidence and patterns of homicide–suicide as well as the relationship between homicide–suicide, homicide, suicide and domestic homicide in the Netherlands, Switzerland and the United States. The results indicate that cross-nationally, homicide–suicides are more likely than other types of lethal violence to involve a female victim, multiple victims, take place in a residential setting and to be committed by a firearm. Although homicide–suicides display many similarities across the different countries, differences exist regarding age and the use of firearms in the offence. This study indicates that homicides followed by suicides differ from both homicides and suicides in similar ways internationally. Cross-national differences in the availability of firearms may explain the international variation of homicide–suicide rates and patterns.
Marriage and Desistance from Crime in the Netherlands: Do Gender and Socio-Historical Context Matter?
Over the last two decades, research examining desistance from crime in adulthood has steadily increased. The evidence from this body of research consistently demonstrates that salient life events—in particular, marriage—are associated with a reduction of offending across the life course. However, previous studies have been largely limited to male samples in the United States. As a result, questions regarding the universal effect of these relationships remain. Specifically, research is needed to assess whether the desistance effect of life events like marriage varies by gender and/or socio-historical context in countries other than the U.S. The present research addresses these gaps by examining the relationship between marriage and criminal offending using data from the Criminal Career and Life Course Study (CCLS). The CCLS includes criminal conviction histories spanning a large portion of the life course for nearly 5,000 men and women convicted in the Netherlands in 1977. Because we assess change over multiple observations within and between individuals, we utilize hierarchical models to estimate gender and contextual effects of marriage on criminal offending (i.e., any, violent, and property convictions). Overall, we find consistent support for the idea that marriage reduces offending across gender and socio-historical context. Notably, we find that the reduction in the odds of offending due to marriage is significantly greater for individuals in the most contemporary context. The implications of these findings are discussed.
Verandering in de leeftijdscriminaliteitscurve ontrafeld: een multi-geboortecohortstudie naar strafrechtelijke veroordelingen in Nederland
In many Western countries, including the Netherlands, recorded crime has declined sharply over recent decades. International cohort studies show that this decline is linked to changes in the age-crime curve, with more recent birth cohorts less likely to offend, but equally active once involved in crime. For the Netherlands, however, little is known about how this curve has evolved between birth cohorts. This study follows fifteen complete birth cohorts (1989-2003) using administrative conviction data (Statistics Netherlands, 2001-2023). The results show that the curve remains recognizable, but that overall levels have declined substantially because fewer individuals are convicted in recent cohorts, whereas the frequency of convictions among those with at least one conviction remains stable.
Deterrent effects of sanction severity and the role of procedural justice in prison: a preregistered randomized vignette experiment
Objectives This study tests deterrence theory and procedural justice theory in prisons. Severe sanctions in prisons may deter detainees from misconduct. Recent research suggests that this deterrent effect may only occur if individuals are treated procedurally just by prison staff. Methods Using an experimental vignette scenario design ( N  = 313 detainees and ex-detainees) we manipulated sanction severity and procedural justice across conditions testing the main and interaction effects of sanction severity and procedural justice on misconduct intentions (outcome measure 1) and compliance intentions (outcome measure 2). Also, we tested potential mediation pathways from sanction severity on these outcomes and the role of procedural justice therein. Results Individuals reported lower intentions to comply in the severe as opposed to the mild sanction condition (η2 = .03). There was no significant main effect of procedural justice on misconduct and compliance intentions. The effect of sanction severity did not depend on procedural justice. Additionally, the effect of sanction severity on misconduct and compliance intentions was mediated by the moral devaluation of authorities. Conclusion The present findings underscore the potential disadvantages of severely sanctioning in prison settings. Severe sanctions may backfire and decrease compliance intentions with institutional rules and staff.